Hillary Clinton became the first Clinton not to lose an Iowa
caucus night and the first woman to “apparently” win it. Whether it is a definite win and not a tie
depends on the expectations of pundits and candidate supporters. By sheer
numbers of delegate counts, a win is a win.
No doubt, Bernie Sanders exceeded expectations, but after
New Hampshire, he will need to show he can cut into both the African American
and Hispanic Democratic caucus or primary voters to continue his momentum.
Depending upon who becomes the GOP winner in the primaries,
the Hispanic vote in swing electoral college states will become critical in
November. It is not a given that
Democrats will retain over 70% of that group as they did in 2012. The more virulent anti-immigrant, anti
“amnesty” the GOP nominee is, the more either Clinton or Sanders in the general
election will succeed in attracting Hispanics.
Clinton will have one more demographic advantage in the
primaries: the women of a “certain age” ,middle and older, who have been
waiting a long time for the US to join the UK, Germany, and India, among other
countries, who have been or are now led by women.
Why Clinton cannot depend on the under 30 year old women’s vote is because so
many of the younger women have not yet dealt with the remaining parts of
the glass ceiling and pay inequality in
advancing their careers. The generation to which students and young women belong
is much more liberal and many are taken by Sander’s crusade against income
inequality between economic classes.
There is also an element of women of that certain older age
who have always been supportive of a single payer health care system. Given the certainty that the House of Representatives
will remain in GOP hands, and the probability that the Senate will continue to
have a GOP majority, Medicare for all in the next four years is a hope without
a prayer.
In the general election, most of the young women’s vote is
likely to stay with Democrats, regardless of the nominee, because of the
extreme position of GOP candidates on the matter of choice and/or on other
issues. Per a poll taken a year ago reported by Politico,” Female voters who care about the top four issues — the
economy, healthcare, education and jobs
— vote overwhelmingly for Democrats. Most striking, Democrats hold a 35-point advantage
with female voters who care about jobs.”
The greatest threat to women’s interests is the possibility of
GOP control of Supreme Court appointments. Electability is an issue women cannot
dismiss and Sanders’ self- identified socialist label could turn off enough swing
vote moderates needed to win the general. Control of the White House is critical to women
who see choice and /or health care as being important to them. Most Court decisions
important to women have been 5 to 4 or 4 to 5 splits. If the GOP wins the Presidency, his court
appointees would tilt the Court more their way.
A party will be in total control of a Congress and White House that
could repeal Obamacare and replace it with either nothing or a more fiscally
unsound system, unaffordable by many more.
http://www.politico.com/story/2014/08/gop-poll-of-women-party-stuck-in-past-110398_Page2.html
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