The Russian connection in the White House and the 2016 campaign: a coming together of many elements

This posting was also carried as a column in editions of the Sky Hi Daily News, March 29, 2017

The explosive revelation by FBI Director James Comey before the House Intelligence Committee March 20 that Donald Trump’s campaign’s  Russian connections had been under investigation by the FBI since last July raises many questions.  While there is yet no  proof publicly provided that Trump  or his close associates were  in collusion with Russian agents, there are enough smoke  plumes coming together that hang like one big cloud over the White House.  Whether there is fire in that smoke is the question.

Those smoke plumes  represent three elements coming together at once:  Trump’s  long time desire to do business in Russia, those close to him and friendly to Russia during the campaign and into the White House, and an electorate that was weary of foreign entanglements and  NATO obligations and who cared more about their own domestic agenda than Russian connections. Those political currents were expressed in Trump’s  America First  or Make America Great Again sloganeering, but they also played into Russian foreign policy aspirations to move into the Baltics and the Balkans.

The influence of Russia on the 2016 election is also slowly being revealed  or alleged by media fed by leaks from whistle blowers  within the US government or in foreign dossiers. A concerted cyber attack from Russia  to infuence the 2016 election in the form of planted fake news stories, hacking data bases and  leaking  transcripts unflattering to Hillary Clinton, were  confirmed by Comey’s testimony before the House committee.

It is possible Donald Trump himself turns out to be innocent of any collusion. Due to his business dealings,  he was already kindly disposed to Russia and President Vladimir Putin well before the campaign. During Trump's presidential campaign, few thought he would win, incluing Trump himself.. His bromance with Putin and supporting Russian foreign policy initiatives could be attributed to promoting his business opportunities there with the power that be. That made Trump fertile ground on which others of close ties to Russia could plant pro Russian foreign policy seeds when it became clear Trump had a chance to be a viable candidate..

How likely is it  pro Russian sympathizers in his campaign  or transistion or White House staff influenced his  positions on foreign policy similar to Russia’s or influence the GOP platform?  His campaign staff , his cabinet and  White House advisers, were full of Russian friendlies .  His campaign chairman from May to mid August , Paul Manafort, had provided paid services to the now deposed Putin confident and former president of the Ukraine, and he signed a contract, for millions per year 2006-2009 with an oligarch close to Putin to promote Putin's interest in the world . Manafort also was also paid  as a consultant to the Montenegro government Russia was influencing. Roger Stone is suspected of communicating with Russian intelligence in cyber matters. Carter Page,active the the Russian energy sector and an open apologist for Putin, was a campaign hanger on. Two members of his cabinet have Russian ties. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, was Exxon president and got official recognition for his friendship with Russia. Trump’s old friend and new Commerce Secretary, is Wilbur Ross, major investor in a  Cyprus bank known for money laundering  for Russian clients .   His constant campaign companion, and later  briefly national security advisor ,Gen Mike Flynn ,had  been paid to promote Russian state sponsored television.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/inside-trumps-financial-ties-to-russia-and-his-unusual-flattery-of-vladimir-putin/2016/06/17/dbdcaac8-31
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http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/03/paul-manafort-vladimir-putin-russia
(AP story)

http://money.cnn.com/2017/02/27/investing/wilbur-ross-commerce-secretary-confirmation-senate/index.html

https://www.thenation.com/article/mccains-kremlin-ties/

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/09/the-mystery-of-trumps-man-in-moscow-214283

http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/20/politics/kfile-roger-stone-wikileaks-claims/index.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/manaforts-plan-greatly-benefit-putin-government-100315372--politics.html?

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2017/02/22/Russia-involved-in-attempted-coup-Montenegro-prosecutor-says/1581487767036/

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/20/us/politics/intelligence-committee-russia-donald-trump.html?_r=0

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/03/20/comey-confirms-fbi-probe-russia-meddling-in-us-race-possible-links-with-trump-camp.html

The facts of life and politics. We are a nation of fact deniers. (updated)

Updated 3 6 2017

This is a reposting of a December 20 2016 blog. A recent CNN report also causes a tactic known as gaslighting. It is a manipulative technique used by dictators and abusing spouses, to throw the public or victims off balance, confusing, contradicting, and leaving them so confused, they cannot find what is really reality so they just believe the dominator or the "great leader". Take a look at how Putin has used this to gain control: Trump is also a master at it. Visit

http://cnn.it/2jAtPcK

One of the most disturbing trends of 2016 is that true believers of a cause or a candidate  are gullible travelers and are sailing on the ship of  the fooled when  there are actual facts to the contrary.  The danger is  shaping public policy based on non-facts that impact the lives of us, the public. Garbage in is garbage out and the garbage out  could lead to public policies that may be harmful to our own health, safety and well-being.

The old saw, “you are entitled to your beliefs but  not to your facts,” is now turned on its  head to “ You are entitled to your facts, but not my beliefs those facts may contradict”.  One Trump surrogate, Scottie Nell Hughes,  was quoted: “there is no such things as facts anymore”.  The view of most of the major issues and facts are highly partisan, per a recent PEW opinion poll. No wonder political candidates can get away with lies and ignore the fact checkers and Donald Trump is the 2016 champion of fact twisting  per  fact checking scorekeeepers.

Psychologists have explanations for fact deniers.  “Human beings are frequently reluctant to accept uncomfortable facts. theory of cognitive dissonance describes the unease which comes when reality conflicts with our beliefs, and how we often go to extreme lengths try to ignore or distort evidence, so that we can maintain our beliefs. “

Here is the problem:  There are facts out there. They are put together by data gathered from many sources by those who have no bones to pick or who are just numbers crunchers,   actuaries , and trained and objective national security professionals.. It makes for  boring news and  requires  a ton of critical thinking and getting into weeds  to sort them out.  

Here is the danger: If public policy is shaped by the wrong facts, the policy may fix something that is not broken, have unintended consequences,  or even endanger national security. The reports that Pres-Elect Trump dismisses intelligence briefings as not factual, boringly repetitive, or  slanted, for example, is the most frightening.   He certainly does not have his own intelligence service at this time  to provide evidence that differs from the current services. The question is whether Trump is open minded enough to take seriously evidence that does not support his suppositions.

This is playing out in Trump’s transition plans. He does not “believe” Russia interfered in our elections either on his behalf or either to undermine faith in democracy in spite of seventeen intelligence agencies and the CIA telling him otherwise.  Here is the danger: He is picking  as Secretary of State an Exxon CEO, Rex Tillerson, who has done so much business with Russia that the CEO got a  high medal of honor from Vladimir Putin. However, Trump has supported  a Russian foreign policy that is  similar to Russia’s.   It is likely there will be  unintended adverse repercussions to the security  of our allies, especially in eastern Europe.

The challenge  for all in this democracy even finding the facts in these days of fake news and a media that has become partisan for one side or another.  It is easier to kill the media  messengers than to take individual  responsibility of paying attention to findings of non-partisan, non-profit, data gatherers and multiple sources  and go where the facts lead  you.

www.businessir.com/sociology-alternative-facts-2017-2nside

http://www.people-press.org/2016/12/08/low-approval-of-trumps-transition-but-outlook-for-his-presidency-improves/

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/ct-exxon-ceo-secretary-of-state-candidate-20161209-story.html

http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/videos/a51152/trump-surrogate-no-such-thing-as-facts/

https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/out-the-darkness/201504/the-psychology-denial

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/article119094468.html

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-briefings-idUSKBN13X2M9

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/dec/10/cia-concludes-russia-interfered-to-help-trump-win-election-report

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2016/jun/29/fact-checking-2016-clinton-trump/

http://cnn.it/2jAtPcK

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2017/01/20/fact-checking-president-trumps-inaugural-address/?utm_term=.2b32bc75ad93