Consumers may beginning to feel better about the economy, but in time for November? Update 3 12 2024

Biden's economics? Bring it on. On January 5, 2024 my son paid $2.28 a gallon in Denver for gas. When Trump left office, it was $2.12 a gallon. How much it costs for consumers to pay for a tank of gas is how many consumers judge the state of the economy. There are shoots of green in general as consumer confidence indexes improve. If that is the case, the GOP making a big deal of gas at the pump prices, so drill baby drill, will find that campaign strategy a nothing burger by election time in November. Eventually, Biden will get credit where credit is due, and it will be in time for fall.

 In response to a FB post  that they are worse off than they were before: So sorry you feel left behind. So few are without jobs now and those working have seen wages go up which was over 4% more than the current inflation rate of 3%. That is an average and for some reason, you are below average. The winners have been blue-collar workers, and if you are in high tech you may be hurting. I have both in my immediate family. By all other measures, the GDP growth is the top in the world. Consumer confidence is on the upswing.

Why do I think that?

It is already happening. Americans are actually pretty happy with their finances (axios.com)

https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/press/CCI-Dec-2023#:~:text=Consumers%20End%202023%20with%20a,downwardly%20revised%20101.0%20in%20November.

Biden deserves credit for record oil production to offset the impact of the Ukraine war and the end of COVID pent-consumer demand. He can't take a victory lap because of pressure from those in his party who want less drilling of fossil fuels now and forever. Biden can take credit for policies that begin the transition to green.

The answer for Biden is to argue that gas and oil are still needed in the transition to green. It is temporary both as public policy and necessity. Natural gas in particular is the bridge to green since it is less environmentally damaging than oil.. It is up to the government not to lose sight of the goal: going green and developing the technology and production and consumer acceptance simultaneously. in the transition. Biden has threaded that needle by keeping his eyes on the ball in battery and EV production support. New concerns that may hike gasoline prices are emerging in the Red Sea as Houthi pirates have forced commerce, including fossil fuels, to take a much longer route around Africa instead of through the Red Sea and the canal. No wonder there is greater focus on that issue. The chaos and damage to the economy upon a Trump re-election could also cause a setback MUFTIC FORUM BLOG: How Trump election would create chaos in our economy on day one

The following of a December 21, 2023 post.  MUFTIC FORUM BLOG: Why Biden feels frustrated that Biden'economics are not felt in the polls, but it is temporary.

 Recently there was some good news. US Consumer Confidence Increased Again in December (conference-board.org)  Consumer confidence indicators improved, but not before Biden's approval ratings tanked (his handling of the Israel-Hamas war was a factor too), but long term and until  November 2024, it will be about how consumers feel themselves about the economy.  

Consumer confidence is also tied to consumer price inex, as well.  Prices go up, and they lose confidence.  Going down, prices are slow to register, but it happens eventually.  The most sensitive to consumers are prices at the pump. The reason Biden gets frustrated is that one fact playing the most in consumers' minds is how much it costs to fill up a tank at the pump.  The problem is, that Biden has little control over it since prices per barrel are set by the oil cartels abroad, and demand and supply depend upon consumers' actions, refinery capacity, and supply availability.. One thing Biden should get credit for is increasing supply. Record U.S. oil production is pushing prices down (axios.com)

‘Pipin’ Hot’: Fox Business Gleefully Reports on Record U.S. Oil Production, Gives Biden Credit For Replenishing Strategic Reserve (msn.com)

Prices always peak in spring and summer and decline later. https://www.energy.gov/energysaver/gasoline-prices-explained#:~:text=Retail%20gasoline%20prices%20are%20mainly,intense%20pressure%20on%20available%20supplies.  That is also true for Trump if he gets another term.  If that is so, November 2024 should help Biden if prices go down.   Measures of gasoline price change : Beyond the Numbers: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (bls.gov)    When Trump left office, national price at the pump per gallon was $2.20, but that was because, between 2019 and November 2020, demand went down 14+%.  Demand dropped, and prices followed.  Nonetheless, he likes to take credit for it." But looking just at the recent rise can be misleading, or at least incomplete. For one thing, a year ago, the United States was battling yet another wave of COVID-19 cases, large parts of the economy were still shuttered, and demand for gas was way down. Estimated consumption in 2020 was 534 gallons per driver, down 14.4% from 624 gallons in 2019"  Gas prices are up, but this has happened many times for many reasons | Pew Research Center

Drill baby drill, shouts Trump from his platform and the gullible cheer. Wait a minute, uninformed, the US is producing and exporting the most oil in history.  Not only that, we have offset Russian and OPEC, and Ukriane factors.    "Not only is the U.S. producing more oil than any country in history, but the amount of oil (crude oil, refined products and natural gas liquids) that it is exporting is near the total production of Saudi Arabia." As 2024 Approaches U.S. Leads Global Crude Oil Production (forbes.com)    Biden can take credit for increasing supply,Record U.S. oil production is pushing prices down (axios.com)

 Nonetheless, that is politics, like it or not.  Prices go up, and opponents point blame; prices go down, and opponents shut up.    So...let us look at the relationship between price per gallon and how consumers feel (confidence).   Now that the price per gallon has really dropped, consumer confidence is going back up.as the price at the pump goes down.  Today, it is good news for Biden...and again in November 2024. 

This summer:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gas-prices-are-higher-again-hitting-consumers-very-directly-and-very-profoundly-142018507.html

Now: December 2023

https://gasprices.aaa.com/state-gas-price-averages/ 

Why should we be so devoted to preserving the Constitution?

 It seems strange that anyone should even have to answer "Why should we be devoted to preserving the Consitution"."  The short answer is that the Constitution is the glue that holds this diverse country together so that, as a nation, we hang together with strength in unity and size, economically and politically, in peace. That keeping the Constitution and its practice of it should be even questioned is because Trump wants to tear it up or gut it with workarounds and use the power it gives him to use fear of retribution and revenge against those disloyal to him.

Why I think that:

 Trump is the first president or candidate with enough political support to take his goals seriously to change the Constitution or to ignore its laws and rules in order to enhance his personal power and to enable him to suppress any resistance. To put that in the current shorthand and contemporary verbiage, such kind of practice of governance is the definition of autocracy/dictatorship. 

 The Constitution provides the rules of behavior of governance (rule of law) approved by citizens through their representatives, peacefully through the ballot box. It must be put in practice, as well. The Constitution is like having referees in football games that maximize fairness and reduce injuries.. Participants, owners, and player unions agree on the rules It works so long as the players respect the referees and their rules and penalties, standards by which both combatant sides abide.  It is possible to keep the rules on paper, but if no one plays by them, it is not worth the paper it was written on.

Some simplistic thinking is because Americans do not know even the basics of the "blessings of liberty" our democracy brings.s National Survey Finds Just 1 in 3 Americans Would Pass Citizenship Test - Institute for Citizens & Scholars (citizensandscholars.org)  

 We are unlike most countries in the world whose demagogic leaders can invoke centuries of glory and cohesiveness of ethnic and racial similarities. America has neither. We are a nation of immigrants who brought a world of diversity with them. Those with white  European roots represent 57 percent of the USA now, as more recent immigrants with roots and cultures from elsewhere will be the majority within the century. Assimilation happens quickly as immigrants strive to pursue life, liberty, and happiness.  The Constitution promises and provides the institutions supporting freedom from oppression and fear of reprisals.

 To invoke "blood" and " immigrants are poisoning our blood", as Trump orated recently, may work for national leaders elsewhere but not in America. What Trump wants is a formula for conflict, even violent ones, that will make America less, not more,  absorbed with internal struggles, paralyzed to look after the needs of its citizens as factions fight for superiority and control over others. The beauty of America's government has been that all, via the amendments, have rights that protect the voice of those in the minority and checks and balances that keep the federal government from becoming a mighty monolith.   Hungary, where Magyars are over 95 percent of the population, or Russia, got its Muslim minority under control and suppressed are not America or American, yet they are dictator-dominated countries that Trump so admires and proposes to become.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-immigrants-poisoning-the-blood-of-our-country-reaction/

MUFTIC FORUM BLOG: What Trump plans for his second term and how he will do it

Trump calls for the termination of the Constitution in Truth Social post | CNN Politics

"A poll from December by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, found 87% of Democrats and 54% of independents believe a second Trump term would negatively affect U.S. democracy. At the same time, 82% of Republicans said democracy would be weakened in another Biden term, with 56% of independents agreeing." Biden to mark Jan. 6 anniversary by calling Trump a threat to democracy and freedom - ABC News (go.com)

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Debunking theories about January 6 : false flag, election stolen, rioters tourist, 14th amentment not relevant, Trump a victim

 Here is where the debunking of theories stands after three years of public perusal of the issues around January 6..  .  It requires some thought and consideration of convincing evidence, as well as keeping eyes open.  Tackled below are theories of false flags, rioters were tourists, the election was stolen, the 14th Amendment kicked Trump off ballots, and Trump was a victim of political misuse of the court and judicial process.  Some of the evidence has recently come to light.  

Election of 2020 stolen or not?

Trump has not ceased touting that the 2020 election was stolen from him.  That is his core rationale to the crowd for taking over the deep state, wanting to call on the active military to seize voting machines, inciting the January 6 militia and rioters,  and becoming a dictator. Those who continue to think simply, who still believe that Trump won the 2020 election, can only be intentionally blind and willfully and conveniently ignorant to keep swallowing that Trump claim.In the past three years, no forensic audits or research funded by the Trump campaign or allies found enough fraud to overturn the 2020 elections, nor did over 60 court cases.  The real fraud is Trump's "Stop the Steal" rhetoric or as his opponents call it "the big lie".Trump has not ceased touting that the 2020 election was stolen from him.  That is his core rationale to the crowd for taking over the deep state, wanting to call on the active military to seize voting machines, inciting the January 6 militia and rioters,  and becoming a dictator.

 Those who continue to think simply, who still believe that Trump won the 2020 election, can only be intentionally blind and willfully and conveniently ignorant to keep swallowing that Trump claim. In the past three years, no forensic audits or research funded by the Trump campaign or allies found enough fraud to overturn the 2020 elections, nor did over 60 court cases.  The real fraud is Trump's "Stop the Steal" rhetoric or as his opponents call it "the big lie".

 Trump acknowledges he was told 2020 election lies were false in wide-ranging interview | CNN Politics

Voter data expert hired by Trump campaign says 2020 election was not stolen (yahoo.com)   He debunks the theory that dead people voted and fraud was committed in the mail-in ballot system. 

False flag theory;

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime/court-filing-tears-apart-maga-s-favorite-jan-6-conspiracy-theory  This debunks a false flag operation surrounding January6 that it was an inside job by law enforcement.  This was revealed in a suit against FOX and Tucker Carlson. The 140 (6 dead) injured capitol police and everyone else resisting the violent militia leaders and their minions must not have gotten the memo. .   FYI..those who think Jan. 6 was instigated by the FBI are delusional denialists or have an ulterior motive..It is so crazy that I shouldn't even dignify it with a comment. I will though. . Aside from not providing evidence or proof of that,. the MAGA loyal ignore the videos,s and guilty pleas of the leaders of the violent onslaught. Assuming those who still say the FBI did it are not stupid or deaf or blind, they have concocted a way to speak no evil of leader Trump and excuse him for his role in the insurrection...  Pence knows firsthand of the weeks of pressure put on him by Trump leading up to and during January 6 to deny the electoral count. since he was the main target of the mob

https://www.cnn.com/.../pence-reflects-on.../index.html...…

Rioters were peaceful tourists

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b3_O91gyj9o.  This video presented to the January 6 committee that the mob entering the Capitol was violent but not a bunch of peaceful tourists. This puts this silliness to rest...except for the blindest of Trump's devoted followers.  3 years later, Jan. 6 by the numbers: More than 1,200 charged, more than 460 imprisoned for role in Capitol attack - ABC News (go.com)

Trump was disqualified from the ballot because of the 14th Amendment.

Was what happened around January 6 an insurrection, not just a mob getting out of control? It was a critical and unanimous finding by the Colorado Supreme Court in the suit regarding Trump's ballot eligibility under the 14th Amendment that Trump was involved and liable, and there was indeed an insurrection. That is now going through the appeals process and will likely end up in the Supreme Court. At the end of this post are the details of what theories are at stake under the topic of "in the weeds".  

Trump, a victim of political misuse of the legal system

.Trump whines and claims he is the victim of all of the criminal charges and lawsuits. For those who think Trump is a victim of the legal process, no one in history has ever been treated like this, as he and his loyal advocates and followers turn a blind eye to any evidence or data revealed to them by people under oath. No sitting president has ever tried to stay in office when they lost an election, either. 

The Supreme Court ruled that Trump was not immune from civil suits for his behavior while president. Some of those court cases he whines against re Stormy Daniels, rape, Colorado ballot eligibility,  and his company's fraud are civil. It does not result if found liable in jail (if perjury in the trial is not committed), but either loss of money or stopping an activity.  The main criminal case to watch that could result in jail time if Trump loses is Jack Smith's federal DOJ case against his part in January 6.  If Trump is elected in Nov. 2024, he could pardon himself if he is found guilty.  However, the Georgia case is a state criminal case, and he could not pardon himself if found guilty. 

 Donald Trump Rally Goers Want Him to Be 'Day One Dictator' (newsweek.com)

Pew Research Poll: 43% of Republican Basically Want Trump as a Dictator - YouTube"

MUFTIC FORUM BLOG: What Trump plans for his second term and how he will do it

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/trump-voter-fraud-investigator-proved-there-was-no-fraud-1234939275/

Results of Lawsuits Regarding the 2020 Elections | Campaign Legal Center

In the weeds of the 14th Amendment and any appeals of the Colorado case to the Appeals Court or to the Supreme Court. This 14th Amendment not only applies to those officers of the government who had sworn allegiance to the Constitution and who led an insurrection against the Constitution and the US, but also those who gave aid and comfort.to insurrectionists, too.  The Colorado Supreme Court overturned the district judge finding that Trump was not an officer of the government but let stand Trump's liability for his role in an insurrection.  Civil suits like the Colorado case are easier to prove than criminal cases because the evidence required to prove the accusation is less (one side is more convincing than the other) than in a criminal case which requires proof "beyond a reasonable doubt). Trump's team argues that there should have been a criminal due process first or that while there was an indictment of Trump in the impeachment process, the Senate failed to convict him. He therefore would be facing double jeopardy, tried twice. The counterargument to that was impeachment is a political process, not one subject to the rules required in a court of law.  The other defense is that the 14th Amendment does not clarify how liability or guilt is determined,  criminal or civil. That is Congress' job to do first.  Trump's team would like there to be a finding that a criminal court found Trump guilty before the 14th Amendment could be invoked and Trump was denied "due process". 

Short and simple: Is Biden or Trump a dictator and is democracy on the ballot?

Rewritten, revised, and updated from its original version and posted as a separate blog post on 1/22/24. Trump's pronouncements have been more and more explicit and self-incriminating.

 Short and simple: Is Biden or Trump a dictator?  That is hyperventilating say Trump supporters in response to Biden's attacking him for wanting to be a dictator and ending democracy.. Instead of getting tied up in knots in what is a dictator or what is a fascist, just look at what Trump proposes to do while Biden does not.   Those who think he is just blowing smoke know he tried to do most of this when he was in the White House,  but staff advised against this because it was against the law or politically would backfire. In a second term, he has the power to appoint staff of yes men. No team of rivals in is cabinet or staff.  Here is what he promises to do in his own words if he wins November 24, most of which he tried and failed to do when he was in the White House before and would be able to do if he occupies the Oval Office again....

 -Make federal employees pledge loyalty to him, not the law; or lose their jobs-\

- primary party opponents use the active military to put down protests 

- ignore and overturn election results he does not like;

- weaponize DOJ to persecute his enemies (with no probable cause or evidence of wrongdoing?

- rewrite the constitution and amendments

- claim immunity from prosecution from any crimes he commits while in office. 

The following is an updated. excerpted version of a prior posting, elaborating the points above..

  Schedule F and implement a plan called Project 2025 , the great purge of 50 thousand civil service jobs (non-partisan and based on ability and skills) requiring proof of loyalty to him, not loyalty to the law, rules or Constitution, or expertise or competence. . Biden plans no such purge or change in civil service employees. 

Trump plans to primary any  GOP legislator or officeholder not loyal to him in the past. Biden does not and has not done it, even tolerating "the squad"..

 Trump plans to invoke the Inurrection Act on day one and appoint loyalists to the Pentagon so he can use the active military to put down demonstrations by opponents. Biden does not.

: Trump and his close supporters had advocated the military in his first term to seize voting machines in states so he could control the outcome of elections He refuses to abide by election outcomes, claiming in advance all elections that did not favor him  or in the future, are frauds..Therefore overturning them by violence is justified (Januar 6) Biden does not.. Biden supports the current election process as has every president has done before him..

 Trump plans to use federal law enforcement to prosecute his opponents. He advocates weaponizing the DOJ . Biden permitted a criminal investigation against him started by Trump to continue without interference.  Trump Says People 'JUST HAVE TO LIVE WITH' Presidents Who 'CROSS THE LINE' (businessinsider.com) 

 : Biden supports the judicial process that protects the accused and gives them civil rights. Trump proposed to replace the constitution. His support includes neo-Nazis and white supremacists, who he calls fine people. Biden's whole life has had a record of being supportive of civil rights. 

\ All regulatory agencies Trump promises to replace with those loyal to him,  including those who could delicence media that oppose him so he can control what the public learns. Biden does not. .

: Trump believes he is not subject to laws. How about control of the judiciary? If Trump doesn't like the ruling, he claims and would claim it would not apply to him. He is above the law.  He should be immune from prosecution if he commits a crime. Biden is law-abiding and complies. Trump Says People 'JUST HAVE TO LIVE WITH' Presidents Who 'CROSS THE LINE' (businessinsider.com). So all presidents should have immunity, he believes, to do whatever they want, even if it breaks the law. ...January 17, 2024 . Trump's lawyers argue that the former president is immune from prosecution (cnn.com). This is not only his defense to the January 6 criminal case, but it is how he would govern if he got a chance again. This one is already on its way to the Supreme Court.

Sources and data:

Trump doesn't have immunity from Jan. 6 civil suit brought by U.S. Capitol Police officers, appeals court says - CBS News.   

Trump had always been above the law, until it turned on him | Rebecca Solnit | The Guardian 

MUFTIC FORUM BLOG: If you think Trump was kidding about being a dictator, the joke is on you.

https://mufticforumblog.blogspot.com/2023/12/what-is-dictator-and-does-trump-fit-it.html