Why I was so emotional when I heard Mubarak stepped down

February 11, 2011: I shed a joyful tear when I heard the news  that Mubarak had resigned and I felt as one with those in Tahrir Square.  Why? I had never been to Egypt and I knew no one from there. I had visited Tunisia, two years ago, where I made a quick and superficial observation that there were many young professional looking people walking  around  but they were  looking depressed. The economy appeared anemic with no new construction  and public spaces were not well kept. I have been in countries like that which were ruled by oppressive, authoritarian governments.
There is a certain feel to them. I am not surprised Tunisia  had  a pro democracy revolt.

I was happy for Tunisia and these young people showed the way to others  how a peaceful demonstration organized quickly using new technology could succeed.  But the size, scope and the role Egypt plays in the Arab world had a special significance that got my emotional attention . Why should I feel such  special joy for the Egyptians' success?

After all, the US's  national interest in the region may be affected, and not favorably.  Instability is always dangerous and an unknown.  I should be nervous and worried. I was not.

I have had a hands on familiarity with authoritarian regimes. I was a student in West Berlin  in 1958=1959 in the middle of the  Cold War and I was able to visit East Berlin. The time was a tense one, just before the Wall was erected. I lived in a dormitory with many from the East, as well.

I met my husband to be   in Berlin, Mike Muftic, a medical student who was from Yugoslavia. The experience of being subjected to an iron fisted government ruled by Tito was still part of  his aura of fear and he was visited by the secret police, which resulted in his fleeing to Switzerland. Nine years later, when the Yugoslavian communist regime declared amnesty for refugees, we with our family of young children made a visit to Dr. Mike's homeland, the first of many.. I remember his nervousness and at one airport he was pulled from the plane to identify his luggage. It was much to do about nothing, but he had nightmares about it for months later. Fear of unfair persecution with no legal rights can be terrifying.

I do not think that we in America know what it is like to have to guard every word we say, fear that some deviation from political correctness might result in a midnight knock at the door. We have never had    to keep a low profile and simply retreat into a shell where the only outlet for safe personal expression is to cheer a sports team. You know informants are everywhere. As Dr. Mike said, it is enough to make you paranoid. I do not think we know what it is like to only have access to government approved media and to only learn about what exists beyond our borders by looking at Hollywood movies approved by a censor. No western newspapers or magazines were available for years in Yugoslavia. To leave the country legally  you had to leave your spouse behind as a security deposit on your return.  It is a suffocating blanket that throws your subconscious into a low grade depression spiked by adrenalin rushes of fear.

Sitting in a glass case in our living room is a chip of the Berlin Wall.  I pulled my car to the shoulder of a Denver freeway to cry when I heard on the radio that the Wall had been pulled down.  I had that same feeling when I watched the revolutionaries in Tahrir Square today.  A burden of fear had been lifted from their shoulders and they now saw the possibility of a bright future ahead of them. I knew how they felt.


Here is why I think Egypt will continue to move to a form of  secular democracy and civilian control instead of either a permanent military dictatorship or an Islamic state.

The movement in Egypt was huge and people from all walks of life participated.; their universally shared  goal was secular democracy of the kind we  in America enjoy , free from oppression and an end to corruption that was robbing economic development and limited their ability to find jobs. They were not demonstrating to form an Islamist state .I do not expect that they will allow one tyranny to be replaced by another tyranny and they will take to the streets again if they see that either the military does not turn loose of power after a reasonable time or if religious fanatics try to establish their brand of governance.

I do not believe the women of Egypt interviewed in the square and, who at least have known Western style equality  for many years even in a time of  dictatorship,  would stand for some radical Islamist style of takeover. They will have a vote and a voice and I do not see their permitting their genie of freedom to be put back into a bottle.

The voice and vote favor the pro democracy movement because of the demographics.  There is a large bulge in the numbers of educated young people who made up the pro democracy revolt. They outnumber the older generations.

The US still supplies a significant amount of aid to Egypt, a parity with Israel required by treaty. This still gives the US leverage to encourage  the military to move the country to democracy.

The consensus of Egyptian experts commenting on TV today was reassuring: The military will not be a threat to the populace  because it is a conscripted military requiring universal service by all and it is a cross section of the nation.  The lower ranks and the foot soldiers could not be trusted to fire on their own and the military had announced they would not fire on the demonstrators days earlier.  In fact, CNN today acknowledged Pentagon intelligence that the Egyptian  military leaders feared that if the lower ranks had been ordered to fire on the revolutionaries, most would have shed their uniforms and joined those in Tahrir Square.

While the US supports the concept of human rights, the military may still be able to keep its anti terrorist vigilance  alive until democracy takes hold, much like the military that still hovers in the background in Turkey.

The Muslim Brotherhood did not appear  to have played a leadership role in the revolution and in fact became a participant late in the game.  No one interviewed in or outside of Egypt gave them more  support than 30% of potential voters.  They may be the only organization currently viable, but their viewpoints are not those of either the revolutionaries or of the young people of the country whose people power is calling the shots

.With the military in control during the transition period, those same young people will be twittering and facebooking and have time to form a voting block that will support their goals when the time comes to exercise their voting rights.They appear  too smart, too clever, too well educated and sophisticated  to fall for some sham democracy or for another dictatorship, whether imposed by the military or by some radical Islamic group.

Do these neophytes to the democratic process have the ability to organize themselves politically to become an effective force that can offset the Islamists and wanna be dictators? My optimism is based on the self discipline and the self organization of the pro democracy revolutionaries demonstrated by  their use of the techniques of peaceful civil disobedience that kept them from being baited into a situation where government violence could have been rationalized. Gandhi and Martin Luther King would have approved and cheered them on.

 The pro democracy revolutionary's ability to use Facebook and Twitter and cell phone texting and  their  access to international satellite TV gave them a perspective and tools for organization unmatched by traditional political movements.  In the past, cells and underground means of communication were subject to brutal police raids. Organized protests could be anticipated by secret police and nipped in the bud with brutality. But by the time an oppressive Mubarak government could take down the internet, the cat was already out of the bag. Even then, as the Google organizer of the  Egyptian protests noted to CNN, satellite TV provided alternative information. Egypt's economy  depended upon the Internet as well. Their economic system was brought to a halt since banking depended upon it and they had to switch access back on.  There are also means others outside the country can use to get around a shut off internet.

The Egyptian people shook off fear and became masters of their destiny in two weeks. That is a spirit  and the knowledge of how to organize they can draw upon again  if the need arises.