Pollsters are getting a bit nervous. Something is not computing. Updated post midterms.

Update: What actually happened and why. Pollsters got it wrong in 2018, 2020, and 2022. Here’s why political polling is no more than statistical sophistry | Fortune 

 The ‘Red Wave’ Washout: How Skewed Polls Fed a False Election Narrative - The New York Times (nytimes.com)   Analysis of why polls got it wrong and the red wave was a ripple.   

The original blogpost: Oct.31, 2022 follows.  I was on target, it appears.

If the GOP touts polls that the voters favor their issues, the economy, crime, and immigration, they should be crushing the Democrats, but races are closer than they should be, remarked an experienced pollster this morning.  Something is going on "out there" they are not measuring.  It could be what is "out there" is being missed by just asking the wrong question, or screening litmus test questions are misread.  We will not know how much is not measured "out there" will change the predicted and expected outcome of the midterms, but if the pollsters are so off base, there may be some explanations. Opinion | Frustrated With Polling? Pollsters Are, Too - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

Here are some post-election day explanations and excuses if the polls turn out to be so wrong this year. Turnout by certain large demographics were missed in attempting to predict turnout in a way that made a one or two-percent difference in key races.  Women, thought to have gotten used to the end of Roe v Wade and were more concerned about inflation, may have been a sleeper vote.  They were angrier than the pollsters thought. GOP opposition to gun control and fear of school shootings may also figure into an angrier suburban women vote than predicted. Students who appreciated at least more than a token reduction in debt and the attempt by the GOP to turn back the clock on gender and race and student debt relief may vote in larger numbers than pollsters predict. Seniors may have realized late in the game that social security and medicare were at risk.  There are other underlying emotions that make voter decisions hard to measure by just asking public policy questions or certain issues.  Those are cultural and values factors.  Asking, for example, as a few pollsters do, "are you worried about democracy" as an issue that motivates voters, misses the point without testing for "do you believe the 2020 election was stolen?" or "do you fear your rights or your vote count are jeopardized by partisan interference?" or  "are you disgusted by political violence." This might have revealed differing attitudes by those who "worry about democracy and blaming which party?".  Some voters are turned on by love or hate of Donald Trump and the candidates he backs that have little to do with the issues themselves.  How can pollsters measure that?  Some pollsters do not even screen for these imponderables and solely rely on attitudes on legislative public policy issues. Some polls are questions posed to get a specific answer to benefit the candidate or party strategy.  Those are called "push polls", but do not measure voter preferences in the actual ratio and even shape the thoughts of the voters.   For that reason, I am treating polls published for public consumption with a grain of salt. There is another reason for my skepticism.  In my early years of political activism, I conducted polling and constructed questions myself or worked under the direction and tutelage of professional pollsters. Experience has jaded my trust in polls as an accurate predictor when they find no overwhelming wave or consensus and everything is in the margin of error, as it is this year. 

The way to deal with irresponsible, violence unleashing media? This is my last Twitter post

 The first stumble out of the starting gate, Musk posts a vile theory about the attack on Paul Pelosi on his new toy, Twitter. After many likes and outcries, he took it down.  How can we, who are still rational, deal with such dangerous garbage?  We can boycott advertisers and their supporters who feed such media, and we can vote against candidates who relay messages that stoke the deranged and willful and fanatic believers of unproved fantasies to act out with violence. Government cannot censor speech without becoming anti-democratic itself. Responsible media cannot just ignore these hate sites because we need to know what the hate mongers and violence-stoking media is saying so we and responsible media can counter them.    Yes, the attacker of Paul Pelosi was tagged as " deranged} by some, but it was reported quickly with evidence he was a devotee of violent hate sites promoting belief in conspiracy theories. His words and actions echoed those rioters on January 6, mimicking the same slogan, "where's Nancy," and sporting plastic zip ties as did the rioters, per Associated Press reports from valid sources.  He was not a "one-off" per the thousands as threats elected officials report to law enforcement. The responsibility media should shoulder is not to unleash the deranged with words and with lies and lacking evidence, that excuse,   justify, and laud violent acts. I will withhold posting anything on Twitter so long as the site promotes and relays vile and speculative theories that inspire the deranged to act out their hate with violence.   I may return to its use when it appears Musk has proved he has such postings under control.   When such vile postings raise money for a political cause or candidate, who use media for such purposes, lack of money, viewership, and pay-by-user speak louder than words.  I am posting this as my last one on  Twitter for the time being so Musk gets the message, and I hope others join me in this effort.

Why it matters that Elon Musk deleted a tweet about Paul Pelosi off Twitter - The Washington Post

Paul Pelosi's attacker reportedly carried zip ties, an echo of Jan. 6 : NPR

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was kidnap target by David DePape (cnbc.com)

Paul Pelosi attack: What we know | CNN Politics

I was wrong: the GOP has a plan if they take over Congress. Hint: no gripe fixing

 The GOP has a plan if they take over Congress. Hint: no gripe fixing..Since Donald Trump was a candidate for president, the Republicans' platform was a ditto of whatever Donald Trump said it was.  I kept waiting for them to tell us how they would correct their list of grievances against the Democrats: inflation, crime, stolen elections.  Until now, all they have done is complain and offer no solutions other than to roll back whatever the Democrats have done. However, we are beginning to get a glimpse of what they plan to do if they control Congress, and they plan to hold hostage Congress by refusing to raise the debt ceiling until they get their way on legislative issues. Their platform has little to do with dealing with what their voters say bothers them.

What they plan to do is to get revenge on Democrats by holding hearings on Hunter Biden in an attempt to get at Biden and then try to impeach Biden (reasons not yet defined).  Their hope by creating partisan fog, voters will forget or ignore what they plan to do to the majority of voters in the name of fiscal conservativism on public policy issues that are the usual same ol' same old' agenda. Feed the rich and big corporations; it will trickle down. Been there; tried that.

Not all, but most in the GOP have hinted at what sort of public policy issues they will support in the name of cutting debt and deficit.   That is a shaky platform to stand on. For the GOP, it is the same old song..stop government spending on foreign stuff and social programs and "government waste," and we will reduce the deficit, a great part of which they engineered themselves with their unfunded tax cuts to the rich when they were in the driver's seat. It is also bad timing since the deficit has decreased dramatically even with the aid the US is giving to Ukraine and even with the Biden administration's spending programs. The 2022 deficit of $1.375 trillion was half of the FY 2021 deficit, $40 billion less than Sforecasted in the President's 2023 Budget and $1.8 trillion lower than the deficit the President inherited. As a percentage of GDP, the FY 2022 deficit was 6.8 percentage points lower than in the previous year. Unlike the unfunded tax breaks to the rich of the GOP's enacted policies, Biden's spending had real pay fors, reducing the costs of Medicare to the government by requiring pharma to compete for bids and tax increases on the rich.

So here is the GOP agenda we can piece together so far. 

1. Force the rest of the pro-choice states , to bow down to a federal abortion ban.  

2. Put Medicare and Medicaid on the chopping block every five years and/or increase the age of eligibility or cut government support of those popular programs to which older Americans have contributed and paid for. Try planning for retirement with that threat hanging over you. 

When it comes to fiscal responsibility, the strangest counterargument from Sen. Rick Scott of Florida  and chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee on CNN this morning was that" well, Biden cut Medicare government spending on these programs". Who is he fooling? What is the significant number of retirees in Florida?  Understand this is a deceptive non-argument. Scott's point: Biden did it, so it is OK we do it, too?: Reality check: Biden's actions had nothing to do with reducing benefits to seniors, but it had to do with requiring competitive bids by big pharma, to lower the cost to the government of having Medicare and Medicaid cover out-of-control costs of prescription drugs..  Republicans have fought to reduce those costs tooth and nail and would fight to restore the blank check big pharma forces the government to swallow by reversing the Biden cost cutting.  When it comes to cutting government costs on these popular programs, the GOP placed preferring supporting the profits of big pharma over-soaking taxpayers and consumers.  In fact, they want to repeal all of Biden's relief to consumers paying too much for prescriptions. House GOP eyes repeal of Dems' drug pricing law (axios.com)

3. Law n order?  In the fog of rhetoric, overwhelming members of the GOP in Congress voted against more funding for police included in Biden's successful passage of his "inflation reduction" legislation. Biden has then proposed more funding: Biden lays out $37B policing, crime prevention strategy (ny1.com)

 Pointing to the violence of January 6 and the passive or verbal support of the stack on cops, law n order is only supported by the GOP, if the law enforcers act to support their agenda. Hypocrisy is not unusual in politics. However, that is not the basic issue:  the issue is urban, and to a lesser extent, suburban, crime, . Even then,  the GOP on Congress opposed more police funding while supporting more guns in the hands of whoever wants them, even those with violent histories or acting out.  The GOP then caters to r fears of black people and immigrants committing rape and murder. to gin up elements of their racist base.  Suburban women, on the other hand, have other fears: school shootings made mass killings by weapons of war used by the unhinged.

4. Reduce support of Ukraine in their fight against the Russians using the bogus deficit argument (above) as an excuse.  This is a further resurrection of the American Firsters' mentality, that American security is not linked to events abroad.  We know how that worked out from history in the days leading up to Pearl Harbor.  If Russia gets its way, expect the lesson Putin learns is just wait it out; the west will eventually cave.  The lesson the West learns: use NATO to protect the Baltics or fight Russia again in the Balkans.  The lesson China learns is a green light to take Formosa and increase control over Southeast Asia.

Biden touts 'record' deficit reduction, slams GOP's' economic plans ahead of midterms - ABC News

 

Thanksgiving thoughts updated 2023

Update: November 2, 2023, Thanksgiving is a few weeks away, but events dictate I repost a blog that deals with whether this is a Christian nation or not. How did it happen we are not.  The First Amendment to the Constitution clearly says the state cannot establish a religion, the foundation statement of the separation of church and state.   The newly elected, Trump-approved House Speaker is Mike Johnson. We have never knowingly had such an ideologue in that position who is governed by the most extreme form of  Christian Nationalism. His allegiance is not to Democracy first but to his religion, whether it represents the majority (it doesn't) or surpasses democracy as rules and laws governing the nation (it does not).   Privilege in our country is for all, not just for those who demand obedience to the same religion as the ruler. This country is not a theocracy; it is a democracy, and we must keep it that way.   I am a protestant Christian, but I do not derive my politics from the same interpretations Speaker Johnson proclaims as what guides him. I do not want to live in a country that exists, favors,  and rules only for those who subscribe to his brand of Christianity or support his interpretation of how it applies to modern life. The Golden Rule or the Beatitudes have no meaning or importance in his interpretation, but they are the fundamental message Christ delivered in the version of the Bible I read.   For an in-depth study of who is a Christian nationalist and what is Christian nationalism is, go to PRRI.

 https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/10/27/mike-johnson-christian-nationalist-ideas-qa-00123882  

Reposting of a November 2018 blog post________________________________________________________________________________This Thanksgiving, we should give our thanks to the Pilgrims, who have become an icon of what made the New World so unique in the civilizations that preceded them. They left England and the old world to seek freedom to practice their own religion, free from a government-backed state religion that oppressed them. It was a beginning. There was a rocky road ahead to laws guaranteeing religious freedom for everyone, not just one group.

 Some colonies adopted laws with limited forms of freedom of religion, while others established state-sponsored religions, hung heretics, and launched witch hunts. Pennsylvania and Virginia had enacted their own laws effectively protecting freedom of religion. The Constitution authors adopted those concepts in the First Amendment, ""Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof..." Congress later passed civil rights and hate crimes legislation that protected religious practitioners and punished those who interfered with their practice.

Jena Griswold endorsement

 Jena Griswold, as Secretary of State, has made it more convenient and accessible for everyone to vote. She also has an effective record of supporting integrity in elections. At a recent candidates forum sponsored by the Winter Park Chamber of Commerce, all candidates were asked if they thought the 2020 elections were fair. All candidates, Democrats, and Republicans, answered yes, except one (who evaded fully answering the question). That is a tribute to how well Griswold has administered the state elections and fostered faith in its integrity.  Democracy functions best when more participate. She has succeeded in making Colorado a state with one of the highest voter participation numbers in the nation, and the state has had record-breaking turnout. She did this by increasing the number of drop boxes by 65 percent, expanding in-person voting, extending accessibility to those on public college campuses and in tribal lands, and instituting automatic voter registration that led to more than 250 thousand eligible Coloradan voters.   She also launched a statewide system so every voter can track their ballot, making it easier for all to vote and to vote with confidence. is the kind of administration of elections Jena Griswold has given Colorado that deserves to be continued.     Felicia Muftic, former Clerk and Recorder, City and County of Denver, and a resident of Fraser for over 20 years.

Friends of Putin infiltrate the GOP mainstream as the left has lost its mind

Thirty House Democratic Congress members have signed a letter urging Biden to negotiate with Putin over Ukraine as they unwittingly join forces with the extreme right. That is a de facto unholy alliance for the books.

Has the left lost their blithering minds.? .What a gift to Putin, just when he needs it and is losing the war. ...and yes, do not include the Ukrainians in the process...and we will have peace in our time.

The right already lost their minds as they talk about defunding the Ukranians if they get into power.

That must have been music to Putin's ears. He will now just have to sit back and wait for the GOP to take over the House and for Ukraine and Europe to give into the cold weather of Putin's drone attacks and fuel deprivation to belly up in their support for Ukraine's brave resistance to the Russian invasion. Fortunately, for the sake of US national security interests, the left will have to buck Biden to get their way. He has resolved to support Ukraine until they win or are ready to negotiate in their own interest. Pacifying Putin only means we will have to take on his expansionist lust elsewhere, destabilizing all of Europe, including the Balkans. Other bad actors in the world looking to grab territory will learn a valuable lesson: Just wait for the US to cave in even while it is winning. What's next? Formosa and Southeast Asia?

History repeats itself: Before Pearl Harbor, American Firsters were a powerful voice in US politics, keeping the US out of the raging aggression of Hitler and firestorms killing thousands in the London Blitz. Hitler made the calculation that the US would stay out of the war because of the strong tisolationist voice raised in the US. The American Firsters were acting like friends of Hitler. We know how that ended. Here we go again: McCarthy defends the ‘blank check’ remark on Ukraine | The Hill McCarthy must have felt the heat from his extreme right flank as he looks forward to being the House speaker. Per the Hill article, "While a majority of Republicans have supported giving aid to Ukraine, a solid anti-interventionist contingent of the House Republican Conference has expressed opposition to sending more dollars to support its defense. Influential outside groups like Heritage Action, the advocacy arm of the conservative think tank Heritage Foundation, have lobbied against some Ukraine funding measures. In May, 57 House Republicans voted against a $40 billion security supplemental for Ukraine".These forces are acting like Friends of Putin.

Complicating it all is the 2022 growth of the equivalent of the 1940 American firsters simply because they like the idea of an autocracy run by Trump. Trump's bromance with Putin permeated his presidency and those who take their political cues from whatever comes from Trump's mouth are the Friends of Putin who are feeling their oats in shaping the Grand Old Party's policies.

For the GOP, it is the same old song..stop government spending on foreign stuff and social programs and "government waste," and we will reduce the deficit, a great part of which they engineered themselves with their unfunded tax cuts to the rich when they were in the driver's seat. It is also bad timing since the deficit has decreased dramatically even with the aid the US is giving to Ukraine and even with the Biden administration's spending programs. The 2022 deficit of $1.375 trillion was half of the FY 2021 deficit, $40 billion less than forecasted in the President's 2023 Budget and $1.8 trillion lower than the deficit the President inherited. As a percentage of GDP, the FY 2022 deficit was 6.8 percentage points lower than in the previous year. Unlike the unfunded tax breaks to the rich of the GOP's enacted policies, Biden's spending had real pay fors, reducing the costs of Medicare to the government by requiring pharma to compete for bids and tax increases on the rich.

Thirty Dems, including AOC, call for Biden to negotiate with Putin (nypost.com)

McCarthy defends ‘blank check’ remark on Ukraine | The Hill

Is an election denier a candidate for county clerk in Colorado? Suspicions validated

 A GOP candidate for County Clerk in Grand County, Colorado, Jolene Linke, was suspected by opponents of being an election denier, and when pressed, her answers did not lay those suspicions to rest.  When asked by the local newspapers, the SKY HI NEWS, if she thought the 2020 election was fair, she ignored the question. At a candidate forum on October 20 sponsored by the Winter Park Chamber of Commerce (which I attended), Linke replied to the question posed to her if she thought the 2020 election was fair, " the election in Grand County was fair", ignoring the state and national controversy. She continued advocating for changing the Dominion ballot tabulator machines to another company without expressing a reason. She was in step with the conspiracy theories surrounding Dominion,. She stood out as the only candidate at the forum, state, county, or legislative district, to avoid the question. All other candidates of both parties believed the 2020 election was fair in Colorado.  Her opponent, Abby Loberg, a Democrat, said she believed the 2020 election was fair and pointed out that Dominium was under contract with the county, which would likely cost taxpayers to break that contract. Loberg also said 63 other Colorado counties also used the Dominium system. Through Linke's evasive answers,  the suspicions she was an election denier were justified.. https://www.skyhinews.com/news/in-their-own-words-abby-loberg-and-jolene-linke-on-why-each-candidate-should-have-your-vote-for-grand-county-clerk-and-recorder-on-november-8/

See the Mufticforumblog post of October 6. More on the big lie:  suit against Dominion voting system bites the dust  (Mufticforumblog.blogspot.com).  Post: Edit (blogger.com)

More about Colorado county clerks entangled in 2020 election controversies in a September 14 blog post.:

Post: Edit (blogger.com)    The battle for election integrity begins at the county clerk level

Felicia Muftic is a former Clerk and Recorder of the City and County of Denver, 1984-1991

Update post election for Grand County:

https://www.skyhinews.com/.../final-grand-county-vote.../

Some observations per the Secretary of State: Grand County went blue for Polis by 453 votes, Bennet by less than 100, and Jena Griswold. by about 7 votes. In the rest of the state and local races, Grand County dem candidates more or less lost in the 200 vote range.

Per the article: Election denier Linke won by 1.46%. Loberg just missed winning by a squeaker. The most interesting statistic in the article I thought was turnout by party affiliation: This is an unaffiliated county hotbed:40.7%, GOP at 35.7%, and Dems at 21.9%. The usual political wisdom is that the unaffiliated breakout is similar to the party affiliation between the two parties....but that certainly was not the case in Grand County because high-profile federal and state races..were winners for Dems albeit no landslides!. (State treasurer and AG ) went red by less than 200 for margins). The GOP would have done much better if the libertarians had not voted...for as much as 363, 200, 140, and 118 in some races. Some seat-of-pants observations: there was a lot of ticket-splitting, and it favored Dems; registered independents are where dem hidden votes are, and we must understand that to do as well as we did, we must appeal to them.

Given our success at the high-profile federal and state level and near success for clerk and recorder, Grand County Dems benefitted from national controversies...abortion and democracy and LGTBQ rights. . All politics are not always local.

Trump, a natural autocrat: the law he obeys is what he says the law is

 We hear "the rule of law" cited as a characteristic of democracy so often it becomes a cliche, and we utter it without much thought. Rule by an autocrat is a self-defining word: auto=one,  Trump is a natural: Imagine a country ruled by someone who decides which laws to obey and which ones to ignore or distort or enforce on a political enemy. He does not believe the law applies to him, in office, out of office, or in private business.  That makes he a fundamental danger to democracy. That behavior in a government office is called a dictatorship, or more politely, an autocracy   This fall we heard classics from him: The Mar-a-Lago "boxes are mine"even though the law says differently. "Those box contents are all declassified, but all I have to say is they are, and I did," as he ignored the process rules; what rules?". "I'll ignore the subpoena," even though it was issued per the law, is highly likely his response to the House subpoena issued yesterday. or he'll delay, obstruct, and sue until the GOP takes over the House in 2023..  "I won the election; the election was stolen", ignoring 60 judges, a gaggle of close appointees and family. He has a lifetime history of being a scofflaw.   

The rule of law is a standard which all can cite when calling foul and believe a judge will rule or a jury will decide if someone fouled it or abided by, and assumes judge and jury will be as impartial as they can in their judgment calls. The rules and the laws were those that were agreed by vote, vote of a representative in a legislative body voted there by the people.  An autocrat ignores the rule and keeps on acting  fouly or twists and turns the meaning until its original purpose and meaning is unrecognizable. 

From an earlier blog post: Trump has a reputation and history of seeing how far he could go and what he could get away with whenever rules, laws, ethics, and shady practices were involved. USA Today compiled a list of a history of over 4 thousand civil lawsuits and criminal/civic fraud in his lifetime.   If Trump observed the rule of law and the rules under which he operated and did not defy, skirt, and ignore them to feather his own financial nest and power positions,  he would not be the target of so many lawsuits and criminal investigations. His legal entanglements never changed his behavior, and he turned it into a money maker. 

 In the days when he was in private business, he lost suits, was fined, paid restitution, and racked up substantial legal fees. He was famous for stiffing those who provided services for which they were not paid and being sued. It was the cost of doing business his way. Now in public life, those costs in defending himself are being borne by political supporters. He arranged for the RNC to pay $1.6 million in legal fees and raised over $250  million from his devoted followers on the lie since debunked that the election was stolen. Little went to attempts to overturn the election and a non-existent "legal defense fund" in a PAC. Still, much went to a fund that paid for some of his personal lifestyle expenses and income. After the Mar-a-Largo raid, he raised a million a day for the same non-existent legal defense fund.    The Trump  Save America PAC  has over $99 million in its coffers.

The lawsuits and criminal and civil fraud charges arise from his stiffing suppliers, lenders, insurers, and service providers, and civil and criminal fraud, misusing charity foundations,  avoiding tax-paying, and then getting gullible supporters to write a check to help out when he gets caught or accused. Sometimes he wins in court, and other times he loses. Recent estimates are his net worth is $3 billion.    He brought that modus operandi into the White House, and we now see it writ large in the Mar-a-Lago documents seizure by the FBI. What is most disturbing is that most of his supporters do not give a whit and look for ways to rationalize their own anti-government, anti-rule of law attitudes and political loyalty, as well.  .  It says much about the character of his supporters and their own moral standards, gullibility, and priorities."

If Trump's actions regarding the classified documents he took to Mar-a-Lago result in an indictment for breaking the rules of law and, most likely, obstruction of justice, and then found guilty at a trialthat results in some sort of punishment, is serious on its own, but it may still appear to many that he was politically prosecuted on a technicality.  However, if his irresponsible actions and playing loose with classified national security documents resulted in real harm to national security, that may make his actions look truly dangerous.  The more serious outcome would be to tie his guilt to outing our spies abroad,  Then the case can made he cannot be trusted to be a president again because he is a danger to national security, whatever his motivation.  Intelligence agencies fear that Trump has been leaking information on U.S. spies overseas (dailykos.com)

 USA TODAY Network: Dive into Donald Trump's thousands of lawsuits - USA TODAY   

Politicization of the Justice Department - American Oversight

The GOP Is Paying for Way More of Trump's Legal Expenses Than Was Previously Reported – Rolling Stone

 Trump Raised $250 Million Since Election To Challenge Outcome—Here's Where Most Of The Money Will Actually Go (forbes.com).

Trump rakes in millions off FBI search at Mar-a-Lago - The Washington Post  

What Is Donald Trump's Net Worth? (investopedia.com)

USA TODAY exclusive: Hundreds allege Donald Trump doesn't pay his bills

https://www.npr.org/2022/08/24/1118946905/trump-pac-money-fec

The moral majority has become the immoral minority

Update 8/10/23:  When church attendees attack an Evangelical pastor for spreading subversive lib ideology, and the pastor is only quoting the beatitudes, Christ's sermon on the mount,  the Evangelical movement has a big problem.  https://www.newsweek.com/evangelicals-rejecting-jesus-teachings-liberal-talking-points-pastor-1818706

With reports today GOP surrogates are flocking to Georgia to support Herschel Walker, their candidate for Senate, it reminded me that the Moral Majority has become an immoral minority. In the 1970's attempts to get religious conservative's faith and beliefs carried out by political action were born.  The Moral Majority was begun through the leadership of Jerry Falwell, a Baptist minister.   Top of the agenda then was the end of abortion and getting prayer into schools.  In the years since, the evangelical branch of Christianity, both Catholic, and Protestant, has attempted to spread their brand of religion to others or to make others bow down to their beliefs enforced by laws, government, politics, and the courts, if not by religious conversion.  The evangelical movement has become an influential political powerhouse to behold in spite their issues out of step with the majority of voters   It reached its goal this year with the Supreme Court overturning Roe v Wade,  thanks to an eight-year project to get pro-life justices seated as the majority. Its work is not complete until it forces by legislation in Congress for the other half of the states to also get their views set in law,  overturning abortion full stop with no exceptions.   The evangelical religious movement has been so fixated on the abortion issue, an issue never directly addressed in any Bible, that it has become an apologist or acceptance of the immoral behavior of Donald Trump and candidates like  Hershell Walker because they have seen a pathway in Washington to achieve their evangelical goals of making all in the US observe their ideology.   The problem is that when we examine the politics of the nation as a whole, they are representing the  of the view of the minority of voters on abortion. Majority in U.S. Disapprove of Supreme Court Abortion Decision Overturning Roe v. Wade | Pew Research Center 

The end now justifies the means, it appears, even if a messenger of the cause is the epitome of immoral behavior. He is forgiven if he "accepts Christ" and the preferred interpretation of the good book, a latter-day conversion. If he is not repentant, he is still forgiven if he supports their issues so they can forgive him, too. The GOP as a political party has hitched its wagon to these two stars, Trump and the evangelical movement,  and is riding in it to achieve success with its other agenda items, generally opposing restrictions on big business and opposing the expansion of civil rights and government assistance to provide health and social services.  While the GOP has lost the popular vote tally in seven out of the  eight past last presidential elections, they have launched campaigns and supported racist candidates and others whose personal behavior and sexual escapades could never be described as moral. Many have been driven by personal aggrandizement and power grabs devoid of any ideology or religion that resembles service beyond themselves, or have they even attempted to give lip service to the golden rule.  Top of that list is Donald Trump, who was quite upfront from the beginning of his political life with a modus operandi that had no ethical or moral constraints: he boasted he was transactional and would get whatever deal best benefitted him (and maybe some others).  His most used power tool has been fear, fed by a  largely white demographic and fearful of their power being replaced by "others".  The percentage of those who follow Trumpism, regardless of any infractions of moral standards, depends on how the poll questions are asked and tend to be somewhere between 30 and 40 percent..

 GOP surrogaes to rally for Georgia's Herschel Walker in show of unyielding national party support | CNN Politics

Wheaton College's Institute for the Study of American Evangelicals estimates that about 30 to 35 percent (90 to 100 million people) of the US population is evangelical..   Amy Black - Wheaton College, IL

The 2020 Vote for President by Religious Groups – Christians – Religion in Public

Most White Americans who regularly attend worship services voted for Trump in 2020 | Pew Research Center

During Trump presidency, more White Americans adopted than shed evangelical label | Pew Research Center

Racist ‘Replacement’ Theory Believed by Half of Americans (splcenter.org)

Great replacement theory: Poll finds 7 in 10 Republicans believe it (usatoday.com)

Democrats need to frame the debate of democracy v autocracy as real life consequences

Update: November 1, 2022   The attack on Nancy Pelosi's husband by politically motivated man is just another example of what we can expect if voters do not slap down those who inspire violence to gain political power.  For much of the mid terms cycle, the issue of keeping democracy as our form of governance has been expresses as democracy v autocracy. Ho hum. The gist of the column was that the consequence of Trumpism and the Trump base was not an autocracy, but more violence to determine the outcome of an election in th future.  The question should be reframed as it is a choice of who will govern us, not as democracy v autocracy, but as democracy v violence, of vote in fair and free elections or be government by threats of terrorism and violence.  Last night, Rachel Maddow framed the choice in those stark terms: democracy v violence.

There are still more voters who could grasp the importance of preserving democracy if the debate of democracy v Autocracy and the threat of Trumpism to democracy, but the argument needs to be framed in terms of real-life consequences.  

One of the real fears I have had for the Democrats to argue the reason that they are defending democracy is the political science and history case (remember Hitler, Mussolini and how they rose to power) that it is not appealing to enough voters. There are still some voters on the fence but the argumentation is just too intellectual, long-term, and speculative for many. and that 39% still believe that Trump was no threat to democracy, per an August 2022 New York Times/Siena poll. 37% of independents believe likewise.  The fear of autocracy and the potential subversion of democracy needs to be put in terms of how it will hurt them and their own daily lives.   The Trumpsters, on the other hand, say they are defending democracy by fighting fraud at the ballot box. Evidence that not enough fraud occurred to change the outcome of 2020 gets explained away by believing in all kinds of theories without evidence, paranoid speculation, and delusions.  Per the Siena poll, 76% of Republicans believe the 2020 election was stolen.  What is disturbing is an undercurrent of belief now more openly expressed is that an autocracy, rule by a person instead of the rule of law, is just fine with some if it is "our" autocrat we like who supports our beliefs and goals, "It is Ok..  We will get our way faster and more certain, so bring it on."  Voters inclined to prefer authoritarian government are around 26% of all voters per a June 2021 Morning Consult poll.  26% of Americans Are Highly 'Right-Wing Authoritarian,' New Poll Finds (businessinsider.com)

Examples of real-life consequences of an attempt to establish an autocracy could be presented like this: We have already seen what happened on January 6:  violence and riots. We have seen what happened to the free and fair election process with an attempt to count only certain votes and ignore the popular votes. We have seen the death threats and intimidation of poll workers and election administrators who refused to lie or to violate rules and laws to tip the election results to the loser.  Your vote may assume to be for "the other side" and may not be fairly counted. Is the use of violence, threats, intimidation, and chaos to determine who won and who lost what you want to see happen in the future.? That uncertainty, that fear of violence, that failure of trust in the election system means a destabilized country. That distrust was the creation of Trump backers in the last four years, The exhortation and acceptance of violence and threats of violence as a political tool is a recent development and new in the experience of those alive today.   

The ability to go to the polls and be certain the process will be fair, your vote will be counted as reported correctly, and you will not be harassed and intimidated, or unnecessarily inconvenienced is a fundamental key to democracy. . The ability to be certain your vote still gives you the power to voice the direction of governance is your fundamental right in a democracy that has been taken for granted until now. Keeping that trust depends on more than just faith, it now requires assurance no one "fixed" the computers or no election officials gave access to the cast ballots solely to the supporters of candidates they favor. 

For those who support Trump because it benefits their business interests, consider this:  There is nothing worse than instability, conflict, fear, and uncertainty to damage the business climate.  If you are willing to ignore the threat of democracy's end because you like Trummpist policies that help your business,  a strong democracy equates to strong capitalism,  where an element of fairness and rules and laws are followed by all. and observed impartially in the courts.  Justice is not just for those who support and contribute money to a strong leader who determines the winners and losers in business as well as in politics.. 

 What will happen to America if Trump wins again? Experts helped us game it out. - The Washington Post  

How Educational Differences Are Widening America’s Political Rift - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

Many American Voters Want to Upend System, Poll Finds - The New York Times (nytimes.com)   The poll cited asked if voters thought Trump was a danger to democracy. '''Among all voters, 49 percent said the Capitol riot was an attempt to overthrow the government. Another 55 percent said Mr. Trump’s actions after the 2020 election had threatened American democracy. As with so many other issues, voters saw the riot through the same partisan lens as other issues"  Siena Poll: 37% of independents still believe Trump was not a threat and 76% of Republicans also believe Trump was no threat to democracy.

New research provides insight into why our education says way more about our politics than it used to (psypost.org)

More on the big lie: suit against Dominion voting system bites the dust

 Lawsuit against Denver-based Dominion Voting tossed after judge finds no basis for claims | Courts | coloradopolitics.com

The district court in Denver threw out an attempt from Michigan citizens regardig Dominium voting systems.  This is a long list of other court actions by election deniers to claim Dominium systems, a company based in Colorado, caused widespread fraud in 2020.   The most recent of actions, the Dominion Voting Systems' defamation suit against My Pillow Guy Mike Lindell, is going forward. Mike Lindell: Supreme Court allows defamation lawsuit against MyPillow CEO to proceed | CNN Politics

Tyrants begin their journey to become dictators by taking over the courts

Imagine a court filled with Judge Cannons, those who rule by making up or twisting decisions out of loyalty to those who appointed them.  There would be no appeals to a higher bench that would rule per the law because they would rule to the person who put them in office. Fortunately for now, appeals courts and federal district courts all refused to say they're was widespread fraud in 2020 presidential elections. and in 2022, Cannon got a slap down by the appeals court.  Here is another example of why our court system still has enough integrity to protect us from incompetent and wacko interpretations of the law.  The rule of law is not dead yet.

Supreme Court turns back effort by MyPillow CEO Lindell to toss $1.3 billion defamation suit (yahoo.com)Special master ruling shows Trump’s takeover of courts has started to sting | US justice system | The Guardian

Trump suffers setback as appeals panel rejects Cannon ruling - POLITICO

How Do Democracies Turn Into Dictatorships? - Renew Democracy Initiative (rdi.org)

On the Surface, Hungary Is a Democracy. But What Lies Underneath? - The New York Times (nytimes.com)  "For years, Mr. Orban was satisfied with infringing judicial independence through a series of incremental measures. But in early December, he set up a parallel court system in one fell swoop."

So the GOP now wants senate races in swing states to make crime the big issue

 GOP strategy pushes clashes over crime, race toward center of midterms - The Washington Post

Update 10/10/2022  Democrats try to pre-empt the GOP's 'soft on crime' attacks. It may not work. (nbcnews.com)    The same well-intentioned, but not very smart folks who coined the worst political slogan in memory: defund the police: are now the cause of why the Democratic Party is tied up in knots over this by the same well-intentioned people.  They need to sit down and think.  Their actions may help elect the same partisans, Trumpsters, and the white nationalists they fear and oppose. Talk about shooting oneself in the foot.

The GOP now wants crime to be the issue in midterm swing elections. Whatever happened to abortion and inflation? They must not be polling well, so they go for their tried and true issue: Democrats are soft on crime.   Democrats have an opportunity to throw the issue back on the GOP candidates for Congress and the Senate, and it is easy to see the following ads: "X GOP candidate voted against funding police and keeping weapons of war out of dangerous hands. They may talk "crime"  but X candidate for Senate did (or will do) nothing to help stop it."

 The GOP has a problem. In swing states most of their senate candidates voted against increased funding for cops and they also voted against the gun control legislation and supported sales of weapons of war to  teenagers and opposed background checks.  In suburban areas, gun control is one that favors Democrats. Republican poll: Suburban women want Congress to act on gun control - Vox

Which Republican Senators Voted for the Gun Control Bill? - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

Senate Republicans Voted Against Police Funding - Democrats