Chainsaw cuts in social security make mockery of budget and may be even unconstitutional

 The old mantra of the GOP, cut federal services and personnel because they are bankrupting our country, is on steroids with the indiscriminate mass Musk chainsaw cuts. That has been the GOP rationale for cutting taxes to the rich as far back as the 1930s.  The theory is that the very rich invest money to increase commerce, and the new taxes resulting will bring down the debt and deficits.  The theory continues that the prosperity it fosters will trickle down to the struggling masses.  It has never worked as the theory he promises anywhere in the industrialized world.  It is the same BS as it ever has, except the numbers in 2025 are staggeringly large and the old fiscal conservative GOP has shut its mouth in loyalty to Donald Trump..  Both Democrats and Republicans share guilt for raising debts and deficits, but what the Trump regime is trying to do is dramatically more.  Trump is seeking 1.6 trillion in government cuts to offset 4 trillion in tax cuts. The math itself is revealing. there is a big gap betweewhat at best could be cut and the hit to the treasury would exceed even if t all works as the Trump regime plans.. The 1.6 trillion is to be taken from the hide of social and human and  that benefit lower income brackets, like social security and  Medicaid, under the cover of only cutting waste, fraud and abuse. 

The attorney general of Arizona has launched an information-gathering activity to record consumer complaints about Social Security. The DOGE cuts of staff providing customer service is so severe, the state AG of a state full of retirees is taking action. In a form developed by the AG is the word "unconstitutional".  What could that be?  What could be the basis of a suit? I wonder if a clause in the Constitution could be the one to which the Constitution is involved.  https://www.azag.gov/socialsecurity

Likewise, the AG in Michigan is beginning to gather information and evidence that could lead to a lawsuit by AGs to save Social Security's consumer access and service. Attorney General: AG Nessel Launches Form for Reporting Social Security Disruptions

State budgets will be hard-pressed to make up for other chainsaw cuts to Medicaid. In Colorado, the proposed budget is already showing a deficit, much less make up for the harm the federal Medicaid cuts would do to its citizens. The medicaid cuts could cost 458,000 Coloradans health care coverage, per a recent study as cited in the publication Colorado Politics. State budgets are already stretched so that it would be very difficult to make up the loss due to chainsaw cuts.

 https://www.coloradopolitics.com/news/medicaid-cuts-could-cost-458-000-coloradans-health-coverage-study-claims/article_2803985b-b1f5-5f94-830a-870ba55d0e82.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=COPO%20Afternoon%20USE%20414&utm_content=COPO%20Afternoon%20USE%20414+CID_175994c87ac75c991557de56f4eb8a87&utm_source=campaign_monitor_email&utm_term=Medicaid%20cuts%20could%20cost%20458000%20Coloradans%20health%20coverage%20study%20claims

Musk's attack on the "administrative state" is the opposite of trying to  faithfully execute laws Congress passed, especially given the failure of Musk to document any significant evidence of "waste, fraud, and abuse". Instead, wholesale indiscriminate cuts appear to kneecap social services ability to deliver services  in order to reduce any federal government spending to make the tax cuts to the rich to appear less onerous on the national debt.   

The U.S. Constitution, specifically in Article II, Section 3, requires the President to "take care that the Laws be faithfully executed." This means the President, and the executive branch as a whole, must ensure laws passed by Congress are implemented and enforced.  Per Google AI.

So much has already written about this so  here are a few pertinent sources.

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61172

https://www.americanprogress.org/article/tax-cuts-are-primarily-responsible-for-the-increasing-debt-ratio/

https://ncrc.org/cbs-news-50-years-of-tax-cuts-for-the-rich-failed-to-trickle-down-economic-study-says/#:~:text=See%20More-,CBS%20News:%2050%20Years%20Of%20Tax%20Cuts%20For%20The%20Rich,Trickle%20Down%2C%20Economic%20Study%20Says&text=But%20the%20analysis%20discovered%20one,economic%20growth%20and%20low%20unemployment.%E2%80%9D

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/07/us/politics/trump-economic-plans-debt-costs.html

Warning to consumers: buyer beware if Trump is elected. Update: 6,/28/24

Today, the Trump Court has just overturned Chevron, 40 years of consumer and environmental protections. It is buyer beware, drinking water, product safety, the air you breathe, cars you drive, and the food you eat will now be unprotected.  This ruling will handcuff any agency like the Federal Trade Commission, the Food and Drug Administration, the Environmental Protection Agency, the Consumer Safety Commission, the Federal Communications Commission, the Financial Consumer Protection Agency, and any other federal agency from issuing regulations to fill in the blanks left unaddressed in legislation.  Instead, like abortion, it will fall into states to do it when clearly the issues cross state boundaries, leaving confusion.  Most states have laws conforming to current federal consumer and environmental consumer laws. 

Concerned about inflation?  Think that Trump cares about consumers? It is back to buyer beware if Trump is elected. He comes with a warning label.  He will be a danger to your health, safety, and pocketbook. If Trump wins in November, it is buyer beware. He is not consumer-friendly, no matter what policy he is selling you today.

 Is the Federal Reserve's attempt to slow down inflation working? If the goal is to cool down consumer spending and demand, which has been driving inflation post-COVID, it is beginning to work. Inflation figures have much to do with the interest rates controlled by the Fed. This is the only effective governmental tool available to keep the lid on inflation. Nearly a year ago, economists predicted the US would go into a severe recession within 6 months. That did not happen, either.  The Fed deserves credit for avoidance of that dire prediction, as well as for tapping the brakes instead of causing a crash landing. It is the only brake available to control inflation and takes finesse and expertise.  

Trump has other plans for the Federal Reserve and consumers, which would be a lasting idiocy. Finesse and trustworthiness are not Trump's strong suit. Developing, selling, and lying about the values of real estate are not qualifications to be an economist. Tinkering with the national central bank, which is the Fed, is not for amateurs or those with political agendas like Trump. So far, the US has the strongest economy in the world as it recovers from COVID-19.  The Fed is not broke, but Trump plans to break it. Trump is working on plans to set Federal Reserve rates himself. https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/trump-allies-federal-reserve-independence-54423c2f  You can trust Trump to do what will benefit him politically in the day's news cycle, but that is not the best basis to make complex economic judgments.  The economy will be thrown into uncertainty dependent on Trump's whims of the moment, and only "Yes, boss" advisors will surround him to give him no shot of reality.  

So far as consumers go, he has promised his oligarch friends who are coughing up campaign money he will lift the burden of environmental consumer and lender protections from their backs. Buyer beware did not work before, which is why those consumer protections became laws and rules in the first place.  It is back to the days of being unsafe at any speed and not breathing the air or drinking the water.  

One advantage in living so long is that I remember those days.  There are few of us left with an institutional memory like that.  It is now like what happened to Roe v Wade. We took it for granted for 50 years, and only when it was yanked away by Trump's appointments to the Supreme Court did we suddenly miss it. We have had a history of the past 50 years of being protected from unfair credit practices and products kept safe by laws and rules.  In the meantime, for all but the profit-craven and uncaringly blind, environmental protections became more than applied to clean water and air, but also to the extremes in climate change caused by man's indifference and exploitation.  We will miss those protections, too, when they are yanked away or subverted by Trump-loyal appointees.

Consumer spending is slowing down after a post-COVID buying binge. This raises the possibility of a reduction in interest rates in the near future. A little pain in these past months of high interest rates has kept us from a financial crash and a rip-roaring pain. 

 Target, Walmart, and Home Depot are seeing consumers shift to buying less, reacting to what they see as unjustified price rises that only pump up corporation's balance sheets. That is what the term "greedflation" has come to mean.   In fact, grocery chain profits are out of sight: https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-regulators-urge-congress-look-into-grocery-profits-2024-03-21/  

So far, Target has reduced price reductions in response, but expect Walmart to roll back and Home Depot to follow. That is how "greedflation" is fought with the free market system. It is a slow process, indeed, but in time it can work. Much of our economy is driven by consumer spending.  At the same time, wages have increased faster than the inflation rate, enabling consumers to afford higher prices on items they buy,  which has offset attempts to cool down inflation. Inflation has been Biden's political Achilles heel. Consumers have just not felt any improvement.  However, the inflation ship is slowly turning around, perhaps enough by November 2024.

So what would Trump do instead of the current Biden approach? We consumers need to brace ourselves for some idiocy.  There is no return to the good old days of pre-COVID, so stop dreaming. Trump is out to upset the apple cart with his plans for a second term.  He pretends to be the friend of those on a budget, but the policies he has promised us would do the opposite. A lesson in capitalism: The government cannot set consumer prices.  That only happens in communism. The government can influence prices, however, by allowing monopolies to set those prices among themselves as they snuff out competitors. Trump has made it clear he is the friend of and a beggar of their campaign donations from American oligarchs who love being monopolies and Trump's policies of keeping their taxes low and sabotaging consumer protections and environmental regulations.  He who pays the piper calls the tune, and while Trump's volatility day-to-day is the rule, he is, if anything, a keeper of political promises to those loyal to him.

The whole consumer movement began with Nader's "Unsafe at any speed," and Trump would make us sicker and unsafer as protections are sabotaged.  He would also put us at the mercy of unfair loan practices again as he ends the agency that watchdogged it. 

 Trump promises to take the pedal off the brakes of inflation by putting interest rates in his self-serving hands, which would make decisions based on short-term political gains to make Boss Trump look good. That idiocy would take the lid off sound economic principles and throw the economy into chaos in the longer run but benefit Trump in the eyes of his low-information supporters.  The other Trump policy is to raise duties on all imports by 10% across the board to protect US manufacturing and jobs.  Those are no more than 10% taxes on consumers, which will be passed onto all of us consumers used to cheap clothes, furniture, and electronics of imports as retailers try to keep up their margins.  Another Trump proposed idiocy is to round up an estimated 10 million migrants to put them in concentration camps to determine if they had documentation of legality to deport them, which is also inflationary.   We already have a labor shortage and the best employment rates since the 1960s, which has been one of the contributors to inflation. along with the supply chain, COVID-19 caused shortages. 

MAGA has amnesia when it comes to the good old days under Trump just before COVID hit. On December 2019, just before COVID hit, the price per gallon...and Trump was pres...Year Dec2019 2.645 per Google. Today the price of gas average in Colorado is 3.288 per gal.The price of gas at the pump,  is up 65 cents per gallon over Trump days just before COVID hit....and we are dealing with the Ukraine war, too. Let 's not let the MAHA get away with their BS.. 

 Prices at the gas pumps will increase this summer as they always do to take advantage of higher demand by vacationers. Prices per barrel are set mostly by international cartels, which is always an unknown factor. Still, another idiocy aimed at Tumrp's low-information supporters is to "drill baby drill." Under Biden, we have pumped oil so much that we are now the largest producer of oil in the world and are a net exporter.  We never have ever pumped so much. 

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senate-panels-launch-probe-into-trump-quid-pro-quo-with-energy-execs-2024-05-23/ 

More on the subject, some appearing in past postings:

Update 5 15 24  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2024-05-15/us-cpi-report-for-april  

The good and bad news  From Forbes May 22, 2024 "Walmart, the world’s largest retailer, noted in its earnings call that customers are spending more on essentials and less on discretionary categories. Home Depot reported a drop in sales for the third quarter in a row as high interest rates cause customers to defer costlier home improvement projects that are typically financed. " 

Grocery price inflation is cooling down, per April figures; housing and gas at the pump are still inflationary, but signs are good enough that experts think it is possible the Fed will lower interest rates in the fall because the trend lines for inflation are going lower. Another good sign is that the free market system is still alive as retailers realize there is a business opportunity to compete with lower prices. Update: 5/20'24  https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/target-reduces-prices-5000-products-high-inflation-persists    Many of the items are in the grocery department. Look for the yellow tags.

https://mufticforumblog.blogspot.com/2024/05/still-ticked-at-high-grocery-prices-and.html

https://mufticforumblog.blogspot.com/2024/03/crony-capitalism-magas-threat-to.html

 https://www.cbpp.org/research/economy/tracking-the-recovery-from-the-pandemic-recessionJuly 2020, CBO published its first complete projections of GDP following the outbreak of the pandemic. They showed real GDP down 11.3 percent in the second quarter of 2020 and still down 5.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021, relative to CBO’s pre-pandemic January 2020 projections. CBO projections made in February 2021 were less pessimistic, showing GDP 2.3 percent below the pre-pandemic projection at the end of 2021. But in data available at the end of 2023, actual GDP generally tracked CBO’s pre-pandemic projections after the fourth quarter of 2021 and was above those projections at the end of 2023.

There is strong evidence the current deficit and debt and future projections are heavily due to the tax cuts for the rich.  Trump is promising to carry on with them. https://www.americanprogress.org/article/tax-cuts-are-primarily-responsible-for-the-increasing-debt-ratio/

Felicia Muftic's resume points to a lifetime of advocacy for consumers. She began as an activist for consumers in the late 1960s and 1970s. Her first consumer project was as a volunteer leader and coordinator to prove Denver's poorer consumers paid more at grocery stores by launching volunteers to survey and collect the data, and then she published it.  She is the author of the Colorado Consumer Handbook and has served as a consumer representative on many boards and commissions. She is a former white-collar crime and consumer protection unit director in Denver's district attorney's office. She has served as a president of the board and government relations staff of the local consumer credit counseling nonprofit agency.

A very important fact checking on Trump's talking points on the deficit, energy, and crime

 For those who still care about data and facts to respond to Trumpian BS on energy, crime, and the deficit, Steve Rattner pretty well demolishes Trump's talking points. Take a look at this:

https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/steve-rattner-fact-checks-trump-s-favorite-attack-lines-against-biden-206504517649

Some highlights: Trump added over 5 trillion to the deficit with his tax cuts to the rich and other actions not attributed to Covic. Drill baby Drill is totally a B  aimed at the ignorant. The US is producing more energy(from all sources) than any country in history, and the US has been energy-independent for the past 5 years and an exporter of energy. That just shows how deceptive his BS is on that point.  Biden's war on energy is  a fabrication. He also fact-checks Trump's claim that crime, violence, and against property are up.

Why should business interests support Joe Biden

Why should business interests support Joe Biden in 2024? Consider the alternatives: autocracy, instability,  and crony capitalism.

One of the most memorable converations I had shortly after the November 2020 election (and before the "stop the steal" Trump impetus and January 6) was with a businessman who said he had voted for Trump even though he was "an A-hole" because he liked his tax policies, among other government policies toward his business.  He agreed with me that Joe Biden was the only Democrat who could have beaten Trump. There is a case to be made that in the longer run, Biden's win in 2024 would be far more favorable to business interests than Trump and his allies' policies. Peace and domestic stability are bedrocks of a prosperous business climate, and Trump and his allies would guarantee years of conflict and instability in the face of enormous generational and demographic shifts. The Brookings Institute noted " The simple fact is that it is hard (for private businesses) to plan and invest for the future in volatile, unstable circumstances," and Brookings agreed with the need of an accountable, capable government that sets rules of the game fairly which only democracy can insure with accountability. Free trade and keeping access to international markets are public policy plusses, but an unaccountable strong leader may or may not support with diplomacy and military power, depending upon the benefits to him.  Trump and his allies are determined to upend democracy and replace it with an autocracy. Crony capitalism is emerging in autocracies in many parts of the world.  Is democracy failing and putting our economic system at risk? | Brookings

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/09/07/presidential-centers-unite-to-warn-about-danger-to-u-s-democracy/70788967007/

Democracy has kept government power and crony capitalism in check for 250 years. and provided the ability for businesses to thrive and innovate.  The alternative and polar opposite to democracy is autocracy. Autocrats pick business winners and losers with favoritism dependent on loyalty to their political ideology, goals, and world views. Autocrats are fueled by greed for more power and wealth, and criteria for government favors and decisions depend on loyalty to the leader, not to a law to which they give lip service with a wink and a nod.  

  The free market,  innovation,   and competition struggle in such an atmosphere where business decisions depend upon political favoritism granted by one powerful leader, an ideologically based political party. Innovation is stolen from the innovators and then applied in business favored by the reigning powers. China is the template of how that works..   That alliance between loyal businesses and an autocrat is the model personified by Orban of  Hungary and in Russia's Putin and his oligarchs. and China.   That is how autocrats have gained and then maintained power. Crony capitalism works for them.  That is a lesson from history as even the 1930''s fascist rulers rose to power by fostering such alliances with favored businesses, as well..  Once in power, they are nearly impossible to unhide because the power centers of government are controlled by the economic self-interest of the loyalists.  

The chaos factor and instability:  The use of violence to accomplish such MAGA goals has not been denied, and Trump himself has a history of approving such tactics, including weaponizing active military and replacing the Department of Justice with yes people.    Trump is a front man of a very strong movement behind him and goals shaped by "think tanks" such as the  Heritage Foundation and an Orban-boosting CPAC.. It is also the elements of white supremacy and Christian nationalism that form part of his and the MAGA support that guarantees future domestic and internal conflicts as opposition grows. Instability and uncertainty are enemies of business. MUFTIC FORUM BLOG: How would being anti-woke unify the country? Updated 9 5 23

Accountability to keep corruption in check. Regulation by the government of business practices that support a level, fair playing field needed for a thriving, competitive business climate is possible in a functioning democracy.  Such accountability requires a free press, nosy reporters, and whistle-blowers. In an autocracy, a strong leader fears them and will attempt to suppress the opposition press at best by starving their advertising dollars. buying them out (Orban) and, at worst, poisoning and staging their murders. (Putin).   In crony capitalism empowered by a government having replaced civil service, law enforcement, and the judiciary with their loyal appointees,  favoritism toward loyal businesses and corruption, bribery, grift,  and graft, flourish. The public remains in the dark, with few who see the corruption daring to be outraged. because of the repercussions. (Navalny, one of the most extreme examples of Putin's policies.) Legislators fear being primaried or losing power, and voters are left with few or no choices.

Isolationism:  In a  second term, we expect Trump to continue with his attempt to destroy international alliances such as NATO and withdraw into isolationism. In addition, he would install high tariffs, the opposite of a long-held conservative value of free trade. Many of our US businesses are global.  Many depend on access to markets to conduct their business to sell and grow abroad.  Biden's foreign and military policy is particularly geared to maintaining trade and supply lanes as a check on Chinese efforts to control them in southeast Asia.

 Instead of punishing with high tariffs, Biden is emphasizing making critical industries competitive and benefitting from "buy America.. make it in America" government policies. He has given positive reinforcement of green energy manufacturing(Chips ac, green energy plan) while beating Trump's oil drilling records and moving us to energy independence to a level not seen in the past 70 year,.The US has become a net exporter of crude oi and natural gas via liquified natural gas (LNG).  Biden is a realist. He recognizes fossil fuels are a current and national security necessity.  Biden has little ability to control prices at the pump, though he gets blamed for price increases. That debt, deficit and inflation are worrisome to the business community, the problem is bi-partisan and the reasons are complicated. None the less, Biden can boast the US is the strongest economy in the world:7 Reasons the U.S. Economy Is Among the Strongest in the G7 - Center for American Progress

US Debt by President: Dollar and Percentage (thebalancemoney.com)  

Yes, inflation is down. No, the Inflation Reduction Act doesn't deserve the credit | AP News  

Many realize, too, that our economy is interdependent with Europe and that Russia is intent on reconstituting the power of the former USSR and control of former satellites. That is the stated goal of Putin..MUFTIC FORUM BLOG: What is wrong with "America First" and isolationism? It depends; updated 9/9/23

Trump Says He'll Impose Huge New Tariffs If Elected in 2024 (businessinsider.com)

Conservative groups draw up plan to dismantle U.S. government - Los Angeles Times (latimes.com) 

NPR

https://www.npr.org › 2022/08/04 › why-hungarys-auth...

The CHIPS and Science Act: What is it and what is in it? | McKinsey

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2020/09/06/the-highlights-of-joe-bidens-energy-plan/?

sh=4aa171e53bfe

Under Biden, US oil production is poised to break Trump-era records | CNN Business

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2023/05/02/us-energy-independence-soars-to-highest-levels-in-over-70-years/?sh=53ce0eea977f

EIA: US to remain net exporter of petroleum products through 2050 | Oil & Gas Journal (ogj.com)

Natural gas imports and exports - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

https://www.convenience.org/Media/conveniencecorner/Does-the-President-Control-Gas-Prices

That debt, deficit and inflation are worrisome to the business community, the problem is bi-partisan and the reasons are complicated. None the less, the US is the strongest economy in the world:7 Reasons the U.S. Economy Is Among the Strongest in the G7 - Center for American Progress

US Debt by President: Dollar and Percentage (thebalancemoney.com)  

Yes, inflation is down. No, the Inflation Reduction Act doesn't deserve the credit | AP News  

Friends of Putin infiltrate the GOP mainstream as the left has lost its mind

Thirty House Democratic Congress members have signed a letter urging Biden to negotiate with Putin over Ukraine as they unwittingly join forces with the extreme right. That is a de facto unholy alliance for the books.

Has the left lost their blithering minds.? .What a gift to Putin, just when he needs it and is losing the war. ...and yes, do not include the Ukrainians in the process...and we will have peace in our time.

The right already lost their minds as they talk about defunding the Ukranians if they get into power.

That must have been music to Putin's ears. He will now just have to sit back and wait for the GOP to take over the House and for Ukraine and Europe to give into the cold weather of Putin's drone attacks and fuel deprivation to belly up in their support for Ukraine's brave resistance to the Russian invasion. Fortunately, for the sake of US national security interests, the left will have to buck Biden to get their way. He has resolved to support Ukraine until they win or are ready to negotiate in their own interest. Pacifying Putin only means we will have to take on his expansionist lust elsewhere, destabilizing all of Europe, including the Balkans. Other bad actors in the world looking to grab territory will learn a valuable lesson: Just wait for the US to cave in even while it is winning. What's next? Formosa and Southeast Asia?

History repeats itself: Before Pearl Harbor, American Firsters were a powerful voice in US politics, keeping the US out of the raging aggression of Hitler and firestorms killing thousands in the London Blitz. Hitler made the calculation that the US would stay out of the war because of the strong tisolationist voice raised in the US. The American Firsters were acting like friends of Hitler. We know how that ended. Here we go again: McCarthy defends the ‘blank check’ remark on Ukraine | The Hill McCarthy must have felt the heat from his extreme right flank as he looks forward to being the House speaker. Per the Hill article, "While a majority of Republicans have supported giving aid to Ukraine, a solid anti-interventionist contingent of the House Republican Conference has expressed opposition to sending more dollars to support its defense. Influential outside groups like Heritage Action, the advocacy arm of the conservative think tank Heritage Foundation, have lobbied against some Ukraine funding measures. In May, 57 House Republicans voted against a $40 billion security supplemental for Ukraine".These forces are acting like Friends of Putin.

Complicating it all is the 2022 growth of the equivalent of the 1940 American firsters simply because they like the idea of an autocracy run by Trump. Trump's bromance with Putin permeated his presidency and those who take their political cues from whatever comes from Trump's mouth are the Friends of Putin who are feeling their oats in shaping the Grand Old Party's policies.

For the GOP, it is the same old song..stop government spending on foreign stuff and social programs and "government waste," and we will reduce the deficit, a great part of which they engineered themselves with their unfunded tax cuts to the rich when they were in the driver's seat. It is also bad timing since the deficit has decreased dramatically even with the aid the US is giving to Ukraine and even with the Biden administration's spending programs. The 2022 deficit of $1.375 trillion was half of the FY 2021 deficit, $40 billion less than forecasted in the President's 2023 Budget and $1.8 trillion lower than the deficit the President inherited. As a percentage of GDP, the FY 2022 deficit was 6.8 percentage points lower than in the previous year. Unlike the unfunded tax breaks to the rich of the GOP's enacted policies, Biden's spending had real pay fors, reducing the costs of Medicare to the government by requiring pharma to compete for bids and tax increases on the rich.

Thirty Dems, including AOC, call for Biden to negotiate with Putin (nypost.com)

McCarthy defends ‘blank check’ remark on Ukraine | The Hill

Donald Trump has lowered the bar for future presidential candidates

. A version of this was published in the Sky Hi News March 19-21 2018
https://www.skyhinews.com/news/opinion/muftic-disgusted-donald-trump-has-lowered-the-bar-for-future-presidential-candidates/

Donald Trump has lowered the standards for President of the US to such a degree,  any similar shortcomings of those who run for that office in the future will no longer seem so  important.

Before Watergate and muckraking investigative reporting, the personal sex life  of FDR , Dwight Eisenhower and JFK were not reported publicly until later by historians,  though their indiscretions were hardly secret among those in their closer circles. I live within two miles of Ike’s summer White House and locals  kept rumors to themselves.

I  remember painfully the ignominy  saint- like Jimmy Carter suffered when he admitted he had “lust in his  heart”. The cries of hypocrite ran out in then. How quaint that seems today.  In his memoirs of his early life I read Carter appeared to be a red blooded American young man like any other until he met the love of his life Rosalynn. They have been  married nearly 72 years.

Now running on cable is a story of my  once local Colorado idol, Sen. Gary Hart, a candidate for president who  was caught with a lovely on his lap on a boat named Monkey Business. I was disappointed and angry with him.   He had just deprived the United States of a very bright mind with great political judgment because his reputation of personal judgment  and his candidacy were flushed down the toilet. Ye gads, loyal wife Lee Hart and I had met while carpooling our children to kindergarten.

Ronald Reagan, movie star and America’s first divorced president,  was devoted to Nancy, his second wife .The Bushes, the Fords, and the  Obamas were beyond reproach.

Bill Clinton was another story, but even his dalliance with an intern  that got him impeached appears petty compared with the hijinks of Donald Trump and Stormy, Access Hollywood, and sixteen  witnesses attesting his grabbing habits were not an empty locker room boast. Even salacious unverified parts of the Steele dossier did not make a dent.  Any candidate who follows him will be immunized by comparison from accusations of having more than a wandering eye .

Usually a president represents a person who some young person can aspire to be. Ask yourself. Would you want your child or  grandchild to grow up to be like Donald Trump?

Donald Trump has lowered the bar on more than just  character standards for president. Any GOP candidate who dares use the the argument that such and such a social program cannot be enacted because it would create a deficit will not longer be able to  make that argument stick. Donald Trump in his second year in office has run up the budget deficit , highest since 2009 right after the great recession. He signed the bill into law when the GOP threw an additional  1.7 trillion dollars into the deficit hole with the tax cut to the wealthy. Try making that argument again. The guffaws from the left will drown them out.

It is no wonder in polls conducted by NBC/WSJ in January  that the most frequent words associated with Donald Trump were ’ disgusted” (38%), “scared” ( 24%  ), “angry” (11%), and that was before the Stormy saga.

The puzzle  is that somewhere between 35% to 40% of Americans  forgive him of his trespasses so long as he supports their social and cultural agenda, appoints fellow ideological travelers  to judicial vacancies, and satisfies political contributors. Per U Gov poll March 13, only one half thought Trump's Stormy affair was immoral. I imagine President Trump will weather Stormy, too.

Update: April 26, 2018
Especially forgiving his trespasses are the Evangelicals who have a great sense of their own righteousness. They, too, have lowered the bar for future candidates. https://www.thenation.com/…/why-evangelicals-still-support…/
In taking this stance,any future outrage by Evangelicals at an immoral, unethical, bully Democrat that does not support their agenda will not carry much weight or will not be taken very seriously. Imagine some candidate/l President, like Bill Clinton, who was
basically impeached for immoral behavior, would be attacked in the future for such behavior...the Evangelicals will be exposed as the ultimate hypocrites ..

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/trump-one-year-hopeful-disgusted-n839071

http://time.com/5015271/republican-tax-plan-deficits-trillion/

https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/trump-and-national-debt

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/mar/12/trump-notches-worst-deficit-great-recession/?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/only-half-trump-voters-affair-195613225.html

Introducing America's new health care system: Trumpcare

Updated 10/15/17 A version of this was published in the Sky Hi News, Oct 18, 2017 http://www.skyhinews.com/news/muftic-welcome-your-new-health-system-trumpcare/
Introducing America’s new healthcare system: Trumpcare.  Donald Trump just  broke the old one; he owns the new one.   He can no longer blame Congress that  also tried to break it and failed.  He is the one who broke it all  by himself with his own executive orders. It gives some the choice of cheaper policies, but their new choice is between bad, worse and useless. All premiums in and out of exchanges will rise. The financial impact will be felt immediately in everyone’s pockets. Trump has opposed any  suggested fixes that would make his orders unnecessary.

However, facing 2018  Congressional elections, he claims he is ready to make a deal with Democrats , it appears . No wonder. The political repercussions will be felt in time for the 2018 midterms when the  millions of lower income and middle class voters will feel the pain in their pockebooks and realize  in real time  they  just  been taken to the cleaners by Trumpcare. Given insurance policies fine print, most will only learn the consequences when they get sticker shock, paying full price for needed services not covered by terms, deductibles, and lifetime and annual caps. The most affected are red states that use more of the subsidies he just halted and who voted for Trump Alternatives such as single payer and Medicare for All will begin to look better and better to more. If Trump blames greedy insurance companies, then single payer solves that problem: it cuts out private health insurance participation.  Congressional  Democrats in the short term are united in support of fixing Obamacare in contrast to Trumpcare. Deal with Trump? Chuck and Nancy have already been bitten with DACA's deal with him over that. They were double crossed later . Don't blame them if they do not take him up with his offer.

Trump’s  threats to stop payments to insurance companies who help low income pay insurance premiums (not to prop up their stock prices as Trump claims)  have already caused exchange premium prices  to rise 20-25% in some states since  insurers anticipated his move. October 12 he made good on that threat with his order.  Per a recent Congressional Budget Office score , the impact on all  premiums  of the payment stop will  be an average increase of  20-25%..  An estimated seven million who buy insurance through the insurance exchanges  will find premiums hiked, but so will the subsidies increased to help them pay.  This order   will raise the deficit by $194 billion over ten years since the government will make up the difference in subsidies and insurance companies will pas on costs to everyone else in higher premiums, or the insurance companies will just drop out of the program.

Trump’s order includes a creation of a parallel system of  cheap association plans. There  will be no  requirements for  them  to cover anything so essential to many: prescription drugs, hospitalization, low co pays or affordable deductions, maternity care, cancer screenings including prostate and mammograms,  annual physicals,  pre-existing conditions, mental health care and drug rehab. Consumers buying into association plans  wanting  to make up the the unanticipated loss of uncovered benefits  would pay extra  from their pockets at  full  market price or go without. That is Trump's definition of "great care".

Currently fourteen million buy their insurance through the exchanges. The only ones who benefit from Trumpcare will be the two million  buying  insurance through the exchanges who make too much money now  to get subsidies. Even then, Trumpcare  will  bait and switch them  to accept his "great care"  association plans that resemble  a hamburger with   two buns but with  little meat and condiments .

The eventual   financial failure  of Obamacare is not the death spiral caused by Obamacare,  but it a death spiral engineered by the Trump administration on purpose as part of their plan to de facto repeal  it.  In time, the entire  Obamacare private insurance  based exchange system will collapse as the  parallel  association system will destroy the ACA’s “pool” comprised of  both those  with the healthy  who lightly place claims and  those with pre-existing conditions or with health problems.The  healthy will be  lured into cheaper stripped down plans. The result will be virtual high risk pools left to the sicker who   will see their premiums soar to become unaffordable.

This executive order  is such a fundamental change to the intent and financing of Obamacare, that it is the mother of all executive overreach.  resulting in court challenges which will further drag out uncertainties and  will cause continued premium increases  for everyone as the market is destabilized.

______________________________________________________________________________

Footnotes: A bipartisan "fix" to the subsidies has emerged from a Senate committee, but its fate is unknown.  GOP Senate leadership may refuse to bring it to the floor. Then it must pass the Senate and go to the House and require the President's signature.  Trump has issued various conflicting views on his support. http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/17/politics/health-care-csr-payments-deal-reached/index.html

Trump  may want to pay attention to the following impact on his core base of supporters and red states:

Criteria: access, quality, numbers applied for financial aid to afford health care in a recent study revealing 15 worst states to get health care. https://www.cheatsheet.com/culture/worst-states-live-want-decent-health-care.html/

All but one (Nevada) voted for Trump in 2016. The 5 worst: in order of the worst first
Arkansas, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Alabama. W. Virginia.

According to the Associated Press. Nearly 70 percent of those benefiting from the so-called cost-sharing subsidies to insurance companies live in states Trump won last November. https://twitter.com/AP/statuses/919246698081288192

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucejapsen/2017/10/08/how-narrow-networks-doom-trumps-insurance-sales-across-state-lines/#7e4ea38a35f9.

http://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2017/08/15/543714171/cbo-predicts-rise-in-deficit-if-trump-cuts-payments-to-insurance-companies

"Blog posting: 9/271/17 Heads up: GOP's Repeal/replace Obamacare is a cat with 9 lives
ies https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/bb/trump-ending-obamacare-subsidies-health-insurers-heres-ends-paying

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/ct-trump-health-care-executive-order-20171012-story.html

https://www.yahoo.com/news/pro-trump-states-most-affected-health-care-decision-134810734.html

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/10/12/trumps-health-insurance-order-pushes-association-plans-drive-down-costs-some/752816001/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/key-senators-reach-bipartisan-health-care-subsidy-deal-and-trump-expresses-support/2017/10/17

The deficit is a real problem and Simpson Bowles is still the key to the solution

A week or so ago, I set about to write more about the fiscal cliff, the real one, not the one manufactured by Congress and I posed  questions to Ted Muftic,  financial consultant and chief investment officer  for private equity firms and our family’s resident Harvard MBA with over 15 years experience on Wall Street.  He is a contributor to the Muftic Forum Blog

MY QUESTION:

This bit of using debt ceiling and continuing resolution as a bluff or irresponsible threat to force the admin to bend to their will on the sequester is still really mostly a bluff, I think.  The results would be too horrible for the economy if the GOP carries through. What I would like to do is to talk about other Sword of Damocles ...that have more meaning to solving the  deficit problem. Down grade of credit rating, resulting  in higher interest rates suppressing economic growth?  More quantitative easement (treasury just printing more money) would result in inflation later?  Unlike Greece, we can just print more money; they couldn't.  I recall that in the 1980's, we did pay for the Viet Nam War and the Great Society, so afterwards, the interest rate soared to 15% plus, resulting in the election of Ronald Reagan.  Is my memory right?  I was head of the foreclosure process in Denver and I recall the foreclosure rate quadrupled every year in lock step with the increase of interest rates.  There are two perspectives: short and long term and are we already at the backfire of the long term?

HIS ANSWER:

The debt problem is deadly serious.  It is difficult to grow our way out of it.  We need to do more and Simpson Bowles is  the key.

The path that we are on should be enough to want to cause politicians to act on debt and deficits if they were doing their job.  However,  it is much easier for them to promise everything instead of doling out pain that would cost votes.  The analogy I like is that if we were really concerned about our health, wouldn't we rather want to have regular annoying visits to the doctor instead of  the inevitable  pain of chemo to fight a cancer that could have been diagnosed earlier? Without taking regular small steps now, we could be heading to Greece-like pain later.

The U.S has a debt problem and it is not just a federal issue. Consumer, mortgage, corporate, local and state debt combined dwarfs federal debt, and our growing medical costs are causing are federal debt to explode! Total U.S indebtedness is 3 or 4 times bigger than our annual economy.  That is like making 50k a year and having 200k of debt.  If rates are low enough, maybe you can meet monthly payments. But what if lenders got too concerned about the economy and your job stability , refused to roll over  your debt ,and the only lender said” yes I'll lend you money, but your rate is going to double or triple”? How would your lifestyle change? What would you have to sacrifice? Your house, your children, your health? What if all the lenders to the US (China, Japan, oil-rich countries, pension and saving plans) said enough is enough?)That is the danger. That would be a real fiscal cliff that would have profound impacts on the veritable peace and stability of our society. It is like the fall of the Roman Empire - and I am dead serious.

Can we grow our way out of the debt problem? Excluding growth caused by inflation.( real growth),  it is possible so long as we pay down debt and not expand our lifestyle or make other investments.

Furthermore, given the current anemic level of growth, it would take years to make any kind of dent in the debt and we would have to effectively freeze ALL government spending and curtail entitlements a lot too.

What other countries have done is to inflate their way out of a debt problem. Debasing our currency would greatly minimize the cost of our fixed-rate debt a lot. Indeed, the Fed has been trying to stimulate growth and inflation through just about every means possible, most drastically through quantitative easing. A little bit of inflation is fine. But massive inflation like we had in the late seventies would not be good. And frankly, there is only so much they can do when there is no corresponding fiscal policies to help. Yes...that means stimulus,  which is a dirty word in DC these days. Sadly there is no fiscal flexibility left, there is no political flexibility. There is very little monetary flexibility  to grow the economy and control debt and deficits at the same time. The policies of the Bush years leading up to the Great Recession and the ire of the Tea Party afterwards have severely limited political courage and policy innovation. n

Simpson Bowles would represent a sensible way to unleash the economy and reduce debt and deficits. In particular, radically altering the tax code, getting rid of loopholes and arcane tax policies in favor of lower, simpler and fairer taxes would, in my view, breathe new life into business activity, investments, and to consumer confidence. In addition, modifying or making sensible changes to entitlements such as extending the ages of eligibility and more means testing, applied to people say under 50 now, would be good ideas. Policies geared to just changing more tax rates on the rich will eventually become unpopular. The benefits are just not large enough to really make any meaningful difference.  

Without bold thinking and big ideas on both sides of the aisle, I fear that we will lurch from manufactured crisis to manufactured crisis with the predictable effects of diminished American relevance in the global economy, frustratingly slow growth, consistently high unemployment, and debt levels that at any moment could create a real crisis that is  not of our politicians' makings.