Update: June 13, 2024 Core inflation is at its lowest level since April 2021, grocery prices have fallen for four months in a row, and gas prices are below $3.50 on average across the country.. Wages are rising faster than prices, and unemployment has remained at or below 4% for the longest stretch in 50 years, crows the White House per economic figures released this week. Inflation is still nagging but general comments are it is cooling down enough to once again predict the Fed may reduce interest rates in September. Predictions are always risky. Best example: per last year, at this time, we should now be in a recession, and we are not, despite the BS in right-wing media that the gullible swallow.
Instead, we are leading the world in growth per the World Bank. "Strong demand and higher inflation readings in the U.S. have delayed expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, and the U.S. economy is defying predictions of a downturn for the second year in a row, according to the report. The World Bank is now forecasting 2.5% U.S. growth for 2024 - matching the 2023 pace - and up sharply from the January forecast of 1.6%."https://www.reuters.com/markets/global-market-data/world-bank-says-global-growth-stabilizing-well-below-pre-pandemic-levels-2024-06-11/
Inflation is a stubborn thing...around 3% now but not yet to the goal of the Fed at 2%. What the Fed has done is deliver their hoped-for soft landing from the COVID rebound, but what Trump proposes would just cause inflation to surge again, with 10% tariffs on imports across the board (the last time that was tried, we went into a recession), kicking out migrants causing a labor shortage and rising prices, and putting political flunkies to do his bidding at the Fed. June 17 update: Except for ignoring the Fed issue, even the Wall Street Journal mentioned both tariffs and labor shortage would cause inflation. https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-vs-biden-an-economic-gamble-either-way-6c979881
How to fight greedflation. If the Federal Reserve's attempt to slow down inflation working? ff the goal is to cool down consumer spending and demand, which has been driving inflation post-COVID, is? Those figures have much to do with the high interest rates, and it is beginning to work. This raises the possibility of a reduction in interest rates shortly. Target, Walmart, and Home Depot are feeling the pain of the. So far, only one of the three, Target, has reduced price reductions in response, but expect Walmart to roll back and Home Depot to follow. That is how "greedflation" is fought with the free market system. At the same time, wages have increased faster than the inflation rate, enabling consumers to afford higher prices on items they buy, which have offset attempts to cool down inflation. However, the free market system can be crippled by monopolies who get together and set prices. It looks like "greedflation" is beginning to have peaked just as the government is waking up and noticing. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-regulators-urge-congress-look-into-grocery-profits-2024-03-21/
So what would Trump do instead of the current Biden approach? We consumers need to brace ourselves for some idiocy. Trump is a wolf in sheep's clothing He pretends to be the friend of those on a budget, but his policies he has promised us would do the opposite. A lesson in capitalism: The government cannot set consumer prices. That only happens in communism. The government can influence prices, however, by allowing monopolies to set those prices among themselves as they snuff out competitors. Trump has made it clear he is the friend of American oligarchs who love being monopolies and Trump's policies of keeping their taxes low and sabotaging consumer protections and environmental regulations.
Trump promises to make inflation surge again: One way is by pointing flunkies to the Federal Reserve which would make decisions based on short-term political gains to make Boss Trump look good. That idiocy would take the lid off sound economic principles and throw the economy into chaos in the longer run but benefit Trump in the eyes of his low-information supporters. The other Trump policy is to raise duties on all imports by 10% across the board to protect US manufacturing and jobs. Those are no more than 10% taxes on consumers, which will just be passed onto all of us consumers used to cheap clothes, furniture, and electronics of imports as retailers try to keep up their margins. Another Trump proposed idiocy is to round up an estimated 10 million migrants to put them in concentration camps to determine if they had documentation of legality to deport them, which is also inflationary. We already have a labor shortage and the best employment rates since the 1960s, which has contributed to inflation. along with the supply chain, COVID-19 caused shortages.
Even the Wall Street Journal pointed to the danger of Trump's proposals surging inflation. Wall Street Journal...backing Trump, even says Trump is a gamble....but they look at it from the investor side and stock market (which is now booming)...and not from us the consumer side. Opinion | Trump vs. Biden: An Economic Gamble Either Way (msn.com They acknowledge the inflationary risk Trump proposes and ignores the polarization of the Fed....which I see as the greatest threat to both investors and consumers.
Prices at the gas pumps will increase this summer as they always do to take advantage of higher demand by vacationers. Prices per barrel are set mostly by international cartels, and that is always an unknown factor. Still, another idiocy aimed at Tumrp's low-information supporters is to "drill baby drill." Under Biden, we have pumped oil so much that we are now the largest producer of oil in the world and are a net exporter. We never have ever pumped so much.
Update 5 15 24 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2024-05-15/us-cpi-report-for-april
The good and bad news From Forbes May 22, 2024 "Walmart, the world’s largest retailer, noted in its earnings call that customers are spending more on essentials and less on discretionary categories. Home Depot reported a drop in sales for the third quarter in a row as high interest rates cause customers to defer costlier home improvement projects that are typically financed. "
Grocery price inflation is cooling down, per April figures; housing and gas at the pump are still inflationary, but signs are good enough that experts think the Fed may lower interest rates in the fall because the trend lines for inflation are going lower. Another good sign is that the free market system is still alive as retailers realize there is a business opportunity to compete with lower prices. Update: 5/20'24 https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/target-reduces-prices-5000-products-high-inflation-persists Many of the items are in the grocery department. Look for the yellow tags.
Walmart, the world’s largest retailer, noted in its earnings call that customers are spending more on essentials and less on discretionary categories. Home Depot reported a drop in sales for the third quarter in a row as high interest rates cause customers to defer costlier home improvement projects that are typically financed.
Not all prices of groceries can be controlled by Biden or Trump when mother nature intervenes. Update June 17 2024 pwe USA: Bird flu hits more than just eggs and chickens:
Bird flu continues to expand in the U.S., with growing impacts to food production and animals. Over 80 million chickens, thousands of wild birds and dozens of mammal species, including a polar bear, have been infected. |
The scale of the outbreak means hikes in egg prices, renewed warnings to cook ground beef and eggs thoroughly, and the extraordinary (business-threatening) measures dairy and poultry farmers are being asked to take to prevent its spread. |
Still, ticked at grocery prices and nagging inflation? Trump is conning you to think he can reduce prices to pre-COVID days. He is pulling consumers' legs, and many are falling for it. Is he telling you he can set prices or waive a magic wand? Of course, he can't. He instead will be the inflation causation by taking the brakes off interest controls and slapping a 10% duty on imports, and the cost will just be passed on to you. So how can Trump deliver on that promise, prices as they were before COVID? He's fooling you. He can't, and neither can Biden. A government setting prices only happens in a communist country with central planning. We live in a free market where competition reigns so long as monopolies don't mess it up. There is a silver lining. With even better employment records at least many more Americans have a job, better than at any time in our history. Those jobs now pay more per hour, so we can still pay for what we need and feel secure about jobs out there if what we are doing goes south. https://www.axios.com/2024/02/05/wages-outpacing-inflation
Another good sign is that the free market system is still alive as retailers realize there is a business opportunity to compete with lower prices. Update: 5/20'24 https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/target-reduces-prices-5000-products-high-inflation-persists Many of the items are in the grocery department. Look for the yellow tags.
About the best Biden can do with the power he has is to come down harder on monopolies. He is doing that by taking action against grocery store mergers that might lead to price setting and crippling competition. https://mufticforumblog.blogspot.com/2024/03/grocery-price-inflation-biden-is-taking.html
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