Trump and family crypto investments are raising eyebrows. Any there there?

 Trump and family crypto investments are beginning to raise eyebrows. Any there there? Senate Democrats are targeting pending legislation to spotlight Trump and family crypto dealings and to propose reforms that would ban elected Washington decision makers from profiting from crypto. https://www.axios.com/2025/05/06/trump-coin-democrats-crypto-stablecoin   Other Democrats in Congress are calling for hearings. The term being connected to the Trump family and Trump himself crypto business acts is "ethics violations", not criminal acts. Of course, the President himself is immune to criminal prosecution due to the rulings of the Supreme Court. However, he is not immune to impeachment, though that would take a cataclysmic change in who gets elected to Congress in 2016 and an earthquake in even within the GOP senators. 

The political problem Democrats face in making this an attack issue is the public's unfamiliarity with what crypto is, how it works, and how it can mask corruption by public officials. It can be easy to get lost in the weeds of confusion in trying to understand what it is, but so long as the focus is on who and how profit from it in secret or in the open happens, the potential and actual wrongdoing is not that hard to grasp. Buying access to the Oval Office through secret and even foreign contributors is one. Conflict of interests and abuse of powers by removing scrutiny from official law enforcement investigations is another. Trading on dad in the Oval Office occupied the myth of the Biden crime family by the GOP for four years, but hypocrisy is expected of politicians and dismissed as just politics by most. It is not OK if Hunter did it, but it is ok if the Trump kids do it, etc. The Trump family and Trump himself have been quite open about their investments in and promotion of their cryptocurrencies, but so far, they have gotten away with appearances of actual wrongdoing or the potential for corruption under the cover of their complexities and removal of the DOJ's ability to investigate them and absolute control over Congressional oversight. 

 On April 8, 2025, the Trump administration's controlled Department of Justice closed down its crypto section. As Trump now raises money for himself, the use of crypto technology like meme coins and cryptocurrency is now freed from federal law enforcement. Hear no evil, see no evil, so did no evil?   https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-justice-dept-disbands-cryptocurrency-enforcement-unit-2025-04-08/   

And now the Trump kids are taking crypto to the most corrupt and greedy level yet,. " A deal for a state-backed Emirati firm to use a Trump-affiliated digital coin was announced in a panel that included the president’s son and his business partner, who promised, "This is only the beginning.' ” https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/01/us/politics/trump-cryptocurrency-usd1-dubai-conference-announcement.html?unlocked_article_code=1.D08.4Tst.3jIYRxMCYbaI&smid=url-share The Trump family is heavily invested in cryptocurrency and their Stablecoin venture, which also can convert cryptocurrency into US dollars. 

This is indeed a lucrative business for one based on a speculative gamble in privately issued non-governmental currency. An estimate based upon public disclosures is that the Trump family's wealth in crypto has increased by  2.9 billion dollars. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-family-net-worth-crypto-investments/#site-header53

https://abcnews.go.com/US/trump-family-crypto-venture-tapped-part-2b-emirati/story?id=121415842

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/how-trump-family-took-over-crypto-firm-it-raised-hundreds-millions-2025-03-31/

Trump, on February 4, also signed an executive order to establish a US government fund for cryptocurrency. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-created-first-ever-u-185629849.html     What's wrong with that? Per Google AI: "Cryptocurrency's impact on a nation's financial stability is complex and multifaceted. While some argue it can enhance financial inclusion and economic growth, others highlight potential risks like increased volatility and the possibility of undermining central bank authorityThat particular last few words are certainly in keeping with Trump's war on the Federal Reserve ( USA's central bank)."undermining central bank".The Federal Reserve has been highly successful in using interest rates to check inflation and avoid recession. Trump stated he wants to take over the Fed to be able to set low interest rates. It would aid his political popularity, no doubt, that is,  until the economy collapsed. Fortunately, the Fed is independent of such political appointment takeovers. The Fed announced no change in the interest rate, no doubt further irritating Trump on 5/7/2025. Trump can blame his tariffs for this, though.The Fed holds rates steady amid trade tensions and economic uncertainty

MUFTIC FORUM BLOG: Trump's grift: grist for the impeachment mill?

https://mufticforumblog.blogspot.com/2025/03/how-trump-administration-is-clearing.html    How Trump is clearing the way for corruption

Is Trump himself guilty of any crimes in his dealings in crypto as a side business? Trump now controls the entire executive branch and has already gained control over official federal scrutiny of his crypto dealings. The potential is great now for foreign influencers to gain access to Trump himself. Left to expose will be by what is left of the free press with enough guts and resources to take it on. An outcry from voters objecting to this on the basis of conflict of interest or any violation of a law will depend upon the lay public becoming aware of how a crypto system that can hide wrongdoing, even if they do not understand the nitty gritty speculative nature of crypto itself. Many may not even give a whit given their ability to tolerate a "businessman" as president who breaks norms of acceptable behavior daily. We've become numb to what we used to get outraged about.

One job that the press, the resistance, and elected Democratic officials can do is to educate the public about why and how the Trump family benefits from trading on the Oval Office occupation. Education about what crypto is itself is as complicated as the system itself. However, the fact that the Trump family profits from fees in owning and promoting their cryptocurrency and direct sales of meme coins lines the pockets of Trump himself is not a concept that is hard to understand or to prove independently from what has already been reported by some media.   Also, it is easy to hide who contributes, including foreigners, and very difficult, not impossible, to trace because access to these private, nonofficial currencies is encrypted, and investors and traders are identified by addresses, not by name. It will also depend on whether enough of the public cares a whit or if it is viewed as much ado about nothing that lay people can understand. A congress launching a formal investigation or impeachment will depend on the outcome of the 2026 midterm elections, which will give Democrats control and the ability to do it. 

 Senate Democrats are targeting pending legislation to spotlight Trump and family crypto dealings and to propose reforms that would ban elected Washington decision makers from investing in crypto. https://www.axios.com/2025/05/06/trump-coin-democrats-crypto-stablecoin   Other Democrats in Congress are calling for hearings. The term being connected to the Trump family and Trump himself crypto business acts is "ethic violations", not criminal acts. Of course, the President himself is immune to criminal prosecution due to the rulings of the Supreme Court. However, he is not immune to impeachment, though that would take a cataclysmic change in who gets elected to Congress in 2016. 

https://mufticforumblog.blogspot.com/2025/04/feathering-his-own-nest-trump-trades-on.html

Trump's latest attack on the Federal Reserve has a history

  Do not be surprised that Trump's newest target to destroy is the independence of the Federal Reserve. He proposed that as early as May, 2024. Yesterday, Trump tried to sabotage the Federal Reserve's independence, threatening its chair, Jerome Powell. https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-administration...?

Trump is already acting like a small country tin pot dictator by governing by executive orders and tweets and defying the rule of law and the Constitution ' Now he is trying to mimic the failed economies of countries governed by dictators who have set interest rates to benefit those dear leader's attempt to curry the favor of those they suppress or whose support they need regardless of the impact on increased inflation that causes. Why is the Federal Reserve independent, and what does that mean in practice?. Politicians feel the pressure to lower interest rates, but the result causes inflation. The inflation rate Joe Biden handed off to Trump was under 3%. Yesterday, the Fed Chair dared to opine that Trump's tariff policies would cause inflation. That irked Trump, who calls tariffs a beautiful word and is still trying to convince many that tariffs are not taxes on consumers. From the May 24, 2024 blog posting: "Trump himself would be an inflation causation. One wag called it: Trump would make inflation surge again. Here is how Trump would make prices go up with his plans. He surely caters to oil oligarchs to get campaign donations who love to see that price per barrel soar, and he threatens to raise tariff prices on all imports. He proposes to take away the only power to control inflation, our central bank, the Federal Reserve. As president, he has no power to curb inflation. also, does he want to destroy the only tool out there? Sure high interest rates contribute to increased prices, but without the Fed to put the break on inflation to slow down consumer demands, it would be worse. In fact, inflation would be Katy bar the door out of control. So far, our interest rates and inflation are among the lowest in the industrialized world. https://www.statista.com/.../inflation-rate-interest.../ If it ain't very broke, don't very well break it. Trump's promises would do just that. Increase inflation."

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-administration...?

Trump's tariff theories forget timing and that voters are also consumers

Trump's tariff theories forget timing, and that voters are also consumers. Even if Trump's theory that tariff wars will eventually benefit the economy, a timing problem will backfire on the GOP politically. Even if manufacturing comes back to the US, it takes years to build up domestic production facilities and capacity, well past the 2026 midterms and into 2028. Trump's tariff war will have an outsized impact on politics because all voters are also consumers, as tariff "taxes" price hikes will begin at once, some not until after pre-tariff inventory is eaten through. The tariff impact on higher prices will be felt by consumers well before the 2026 midterms.

Without cheaper competition from imports, domestic producers will be tempted to raise their prices to get higher profit margins (the difference between what the market will bear if consumers buy at the price, and what it costs to produce and sell). Products with imported parts will see some prices rise immediately.

I am no economist, but I do follow the impact public policy has on consumers, the focus of my 30-year career in public and government relations as both a regulator and an advocate for consumer rights. 

70 percent of the US economy is consumer-related. Sticker shock will be voter shock, especially for those who thought Trump cared about the prices and inflation. You can count on Democrats to chant we told you so and Trump himself is the one who caused the pain through his "tariff taxes". Those sensitive to prices for everyday consumer goods like clothes and electronics will be the most affected. Those who benefit, such as steel and auto manufacturing, in job creation and salaries, are far outnumbered by the number of price-sensitive consumers who are also voters. It will be even painful for the middle class if the Trump tariff war causes a recession with layoffs and 401 (k) s tanking.The result will be a decline in consumer buying as consumers adjust to the new reality. That, in turn, can also discourage investments in manufacturing and lead to layoffs.

Trump's trumpeting that manufacturing will "come roaring back to the US" has a timing problem. It takes years to construct new manufacturing facilities, and those facilities will be far more automated, far less employing human workers, so this will generate far fewer jobs than this would have been a decade ago. It will take several years for those facilities to be built, and by that time, both the 2026 and 2028 election seasons will be in the rear view mirror.

Update: 4/4/2025 Federal reserves did not lower interest rates because of uncertainties of labor shortage (immigration) and tariff policies length and amount with unknown specifics which could increase inflation. Interest rates are the only tool to cool inflation, so it is not the time to lower interest rates now. Inflation, then, still lurks in the future, it appears. The Trump administration had pressured the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. Instead, 4/4/2025, the Fed made no changes. ( Trump had threatened to take over the central bank fed decisions to suit his policies and political interests. It is a move that the dictator of Turkey, Erdogan, used to consolidate his power and now the value of the currency dropped from about 2 to one to the US dollar to 30 to one...The same disastrous policies of dropping interest rates for political reasons plagued he economies of South America for years. ) Turkey’s Erdogan sacks central bank governor after rate hike | Recep Tayyip Erdogan News | Al Jazeera      Why Turkey's currency is crashing after Erdogan got reelected | AP News

Musk's return on investment in Trump has just begun

This is about as self-serving as a billionaire can get. Musk plans to abuse his newfound power as Trump's DOGE to protect plans for a new financial service from consumers and to remove safety requirements for Tesla.  https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/elon-musk-put-277-million-into-the-election-now-he-s-200-billion-richer.  That is a return on investment of the century.  Musk is planning to turn his X (formerly Twitter) into a financial services platform similar to Venmo, but offering far more  serivces.. https://www.pymnts.com/financial-apps/2023/musk-x-will-encompass-users-entire-financial-life-by-2024Eliminating guardrails, allowing Musk to abuse customers as he sees fit in providing financial services is in his best interest, but not in consumer or public interests.Musk sees the Consumer Financial Protection  Bureau as redundant and unnecessary. I see it as the only viable guardrail to keep consumers from being victims of illegal and unfair treatment by powerful banks. “When I say payments, I actually mean someone’s entire financial life,” Musk said during a company all-hands call last week, per a report by the Verge.“If it involves money, it’ll be on our platform. Money or securities or whatever. So, it’s not just like send $20 to my friend. I’m talking about, like, you won’t need a bank account.” Imagine a power like the one he represents trying to sell consumers on "efficiency" and DOGE that eliminates consumer protections from financial service providers while he is planning to launch a financial services project as far-reaching as this.  This is beyond corrupt,  using his relationship with Pres. Elect Trump to get it done using the cover of eliminating duplicative agencies to save taxpayer money. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/06/doges-musk-ramaswamy-try-to-sell-congress-on-huge-spending-cuts.html 

Update: 12/21/24   This is what the CFPB is doing, for example, that local and state consumer regulators do not have the ability and resources to do. CFPB sues JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo over Zelle payment fraud

Another Musk self-serving plan: Musk is unsafe at any speed. Musk plans to use his power to remove safety regulations that damage Tesla's interest. Trump team set to end key vehicle safety rule opposed by Elon Musk's Tesla: report

Add this to the already extensive stranglehold billionaires have in media and what we can hear and see to get our news. MUFTIC FORUM BLOG: Democracy has an oligarch problem. Musk is a player.

More on CFPB:

This, from   https://mufticforumblog.blogspot.com/2024/11/resistance-is-not-enough-democrats-have.html   .....                billionaire Elon Musk in charge of Trump's current thinking about cutting "duplicative and unnecessary agencies" has just targeted the recently instituted the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau . (CFPB)Unnecessary for whom? Certainly not necessary for a billionaire. Duplicative of what agency? It was set up to do what other agencies had failed to do or had the power to do. Per Google AI, The FTC's Bureau of Productions for Consumer Protection ICFstops unfair, deceptive, and fraudulent business practices by collecting complaints and conducting investigations, suing companies and people that break the law. developing rules to maintain a fair marketplace. I spent over 20 years as an executive with consumer protection agencies, one similar to the CFPB on the local level, and a credit counseling agency (non-profit) , dealing with debt, foreclosure, and local, public, and private agencies attempting to help consumers deal with these kinds of financial problems. However, when we attempted to alert the Federal Trade Commission about a pattern of civil fraud, there was no easy way to do it nor was there a focus at the FTC to deal with consumer complaints.  Musk does not have a clue of how important the Bureau is. Per the bureau:

• 4 million+ consumer complaints received responses
• $20.7 billion+ in financial relief as a result of CFPB actions
• 205 million+ people eligible for financial relief and their current target: credit card and bank junk fees.

 

That is a good reason why billionaires should not be making such policies.https://www.reuters.com/world/us/musk-calls-abolishing-consumer-finance-watchdog-targeted-by-republicans-2024-11-27

Alarm bells are ringing as Trump has indicated a potential desire to turn the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, into a political weapon and to set interest rates per political considerations.  If the Fed begins to raise interest rates as inflation raises its ugly head again, Trump may try to replace the members with loyalists so he could control interest rates to make his regime look good politically. That move would be fought tooth and nail by business interests. The Federal Reserve has the only tool available to fight inflation. They control an overheated economy using interest rates. While high interest rates post-COVID were politically painful, in the long run they have brought inflation down to nearly 2%, an annual rate economists consider healthy.

 Elon Musk's current relationship will likely run into conflict with Trump over tariffs and the environment (Tesla and batteries are important to him, and they depend on environmentally sensitive customers)  Musk also understands science and its value to Space X.  Cuts of government service runs counter to his business tech orientation which is highly dependent on science and data collecting. How that plays out will be a fascinating drama to watch. V Conflict with Trump's team members have already begun. Musk, top Trump adviser clash over Cabinet picks

Possibly an area of conflict between Musk and Pres. Trump is if Project 2025 is implemented. Eliminated as unnecessary are whole agencies at the EPA. . ‘Agencies To Be Deleted’: Vivek Ramaswamy Says DOGE Will Pursue ‘Mass Reductions,’ Fight Bureaucratic ‘Pushback’  In MAGA'S mind, environmental and climate research is unnecessary. Global warming is a hoax, per Project 2025 and Donald Trump. They must think if it is not collecting data that is reported in the media, global warming will go away. Besides, these regulatory agencies cut into corporate profits, and those agency cuts are needed to offset the tax breaks to the rich that will bloat the debt and deficits.  Project 2025 proposes to eliminate any reference to man-caused global warming in government agencies including eliminating agencies who keep track of such unnecessary stuff since there is no global warming man causes.  Among those on the cutting block are possibly  Boulder's National Atmospheric Research labs, and NOAA's chief research facility also located in Boulder, Colorado. . https://www.noaa.gov/about-our-agency  

Interesting, however, is that Trump's pick for energy czar is from Denver, who believes there is climate change, but it is not a crisis. https://www.denverpost.com/2024/11/19/chris-wright-colorado-energy-secretary-nominee

 On the other hand, Elon Musk may see a business opportunity. He already has billions worth of government contracts, especially in space travel, exploration, and rockets. That is his business model. It is taking over stodgy government agencies and replacing them with money-saving contracts under his control and for profit. Running science agencies would more than benefit his bottom line and the automotive and space agencies that already make him the richest man in the world. Trump's victory brought Tesla and Musk 70 billion dollars. It also means that those agencies would serve him, but not the public interest. and competitors.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/11/elon-musk-is-70-billion-richer-since-trump-victory-due-to-tesla-surge.html 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/11/16/elon-musk-trump-treasury-tariffs/

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/14/climate/trump-noaa-climate-data-weather.html

https://www.law.berkeley.edu/research/clee/research/other-research-initiatives/environmental-guid

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/07/what-project-2025-would-do-to-climate-policy-in-the-us/

 

Storm clouds on the horizon for Trump, business and consumer interests, and Elon Musk update 12/14/2024

 Trump faces storm clouds on the horizon as he faces pressure from business interests and Elon Musk. Business interests may be the only guardrails Trump will face challenging his priorities. To Trump, what matters to him is what the stock market is doing.  If that begins to tank due to inflation rising again, maybe he might begin to see the folly of high tariffs and immigration policies causing a labor shortage as he tries to live up to his campaign policies to mess with both. https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/19/business/guardrails-trump-economy-stock-market-bonds     He is already fudging on his promises to lower grocery prices. 

An excellent  article on Trump's threatened tariffs on Chinese imports, from the business/investor viewpoint. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/china-has-been-stockpiling-a-key-us-crop-before-trump-takes-office

Update 12/14/2024 .If there was one issue that tipped the election to Trump, it was his promise to lower grocery prices. He made a big deal of it in his campaign, he promised he would, polls confirmed that was the reason he won, and now he is already admitting he will have a hard time rolling back grocery prices. In fact, the likelihood that grocery prices will inflate will be due to his tariffs on imports from Mexico and a labor shortage from farm to processing caused by mass deportations. https://www.yahoo.com/news/donald-trump-already-walked-back-221600205.html

Trump says it will be 'hard' to bring grocery prices down. Here's why. Already, Trump is blaming Biden, not COVID-19, not supply chain mess-ups, empty shelves, or stimulus checks causing more demand than supply. As Biden leaves office, grocery price inflation had been near zero for the past year. However, if grocery prices go south, tariffs and immigration will be to blame,. The message must be more than "we told you so," but to tie it to Trump's own actions and deserved blame for whatever happened on his watch. 

The other issue that motivated some to vote for Trump was the price of gas at the pump and his promise to make that cheaper.  That one will not happen either. Drill baby drill might make oil patch oligarchs righer, but not the rest of us:

 Another reason why drill baby drill will not reduce prices at the pump. Gist of the article: supply and demand are set internationally so that even producing more oil will not affect prices at American pumps..  The US does not control oil supply and demand and any extra oil we produce may be offset by less drilling in another country. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/why-trump-s-plan-to-drill-baby-drill-is-unlikely-to-cut-gas-prices-and-fix-inflation/ar-AA1vTbWR?

There are other reasons drill baby drill will not reduce prices at the pump:  We do not have a shortage of crude oil, but oil patch already has leases with oil for the next 40 years. What they really want is to remove environmental restraints so they can increase their profit margins, but that will not20 affect gas at the pump either.  MUFTIC FORUM BLOG: The BS of "drill baby drill"; makes unnecessary

Update 12/20/2024:  Wonder why the EU was left out of the Trump threat to raise tariffs on imports? It was rumored the EU threatened to block energy/gas imports from the US as a retaliation to tariffs on their exports to the US, setting off the US gas industry. Trump listened.  This is how Trump couched it in terms of a trade-off to bring down the trade imbalance and make him look like the ultimatum was his ultimatum tat is as advantage to the US.. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/20/trump-says-european-union-must-buy-us-oil-and-gas-in-trade-ultimatum.html     Here is how the spin is being positionedby Trump for the benefit of his MAGA's ears . Donald Trump Threatens Europe With Tariffs - Newsweek    Unknown if there will be any impact on the US consumer in righting a trade imbalance, but they will avoid having high tariffs passed on to them for European imports.  Medicinal and pharmaceutical products, motor cars and motor vehicles are the major items US imports from Europe.  

EU-US trade - Consilium.europa.eu

Consilium.europa.eu

This section regarding billionaires and oligarchs is moved to a separate posting: MUFTIC FORUM BLOG: Musk's return on investment in Trump has just begun

So is it the economy? Updated August 26, 2024 for Harris plan

 For the MAGA meme screamers, update your data or produce your alternative facts. Economist Steve Rattner adjusted his data to remove the COVID impact on the economy for which Trump was not responsible nor does he deserve credit for low prices and border crossings that happened during COVID. FYI: Scream all you want about prices (now stabilizing), but no president, Trump, Fiden, or Harris can edict or control or set grocery prices, nor can they, with any executive action, roll them back to December 2019. Get real.. (We closed the border because of the COVID crisis, remember?)). The growth of the economy and job creation were worse under Trump than under Biden. Violent crime was lower under Biden (and illegal migrants' crime rates were much less than others). Oil? Under Biden, the USA is now energy independent. Inflation? rate was down to near-normal levels under Biden. The Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates in September because of the threat of increased unemployment and that the inflation rate is close to the target of 2% .Here are my facts : (We closed the border because of the COVID crisis, remember? No wonder illegal crossings were down. duh). Once the COVID close was lifted. Illegal border crossings are now down from 8K to 2 K in spite of Trump torpedoing the bipartisan bill that included funding for building the rest of the Wall and enough border guards, and judges to screen for actual trafficked victims and proof of persecution to be accepted for asylum. Those seeking only economic opportunity do not get asylum under our current law. So, instead of whining about Biden's recovery success.. what does Trump plan? So far, goose eggs, except for inflation causing tariffs and national debt busting more tax relief for billionaires that never trickled down and drill baby drill when we have so much oil, we do not have a shortage to be fixed, and we are exporting our energy already. The only high taxes Biden had proposed is to reverse the low taxes on the ultra-rich Tump passed. Harris proposes restoring child tax credit and aid to families with new babies. Free stuff? That is because consumers are being screwed by expensive stuff by price-gouging business greed( which Harris plans to stop.) Trump has no plan to reduce prices, but he only plans to make it worse;, slapping high tariffs on all imports, costs passed on to all consumers, ending Obamacare, ending free lunches for poor kids, rolling back the big pharma controls, and deals Biden made for low-cost meds for seniors., Here's Kamala Harris' one: Kamala Harris released her economic platform: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kamala-harris-economic-plan-presidential-candidate/

One of the parts of the Harris economic plan is to go after grocery store price gougers and monopolistic, greedy price setters.  Is there price gouging going on?  A federal case brought by the DOJ against the merger of two grocery store giants, Kroger and Albertson's, resulted in a confirmation by a store executive that, yes, they had gouged some prices. https://www.newsweek.com/kroger-executive-admits-company-gouged-prices-above-inflation-1945742  Why is this merger such a issue? Because when there is a monopoly, an inhouse memo can set prices without fear of a competitor starting a price war.

Good question: We have had tax hikes and tariff hikes, but we still have inflation. Why? Tax policy has little to do with it. COVID and recovery are why. tax policy is not the reason for current inflation. It was the impact of COVID's on the economy and the recovery from it. . https://credit.org/.../what-is-causing-inflation-in-2024.... " according to Fortune, economists generally agree on some of the causes behind the high inflation that has defined the economy over the last several months:

"The pandemic shifted consumer demand away from services toward goods, which left producers unable to keep up with demand.

Factory closures from early in the pandemic reduced supply just as demand was rising, which sent prices up even further.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused a spike in oil prices, which increased the cost of both manufacturing and shipping, while also forcing up the price of wheat and other commodities.

On top of that, the U.S. was dealing with a labor shortage, leaving many businesses that had been shuttered for months unable to meet rising demand — much of which was due to stimulus payments — when they were finally able to open.” (yahoo.com)"

CREDIT.ORG

What is Causing Inflation in 2024? Understanding Transitory

____________________________________________________

Trump's proposal to raise tariffs is considered by economists to be one of the highest tax increases in history. Both Biden and Trump have already raised tariffs with a negative impact on the US economy. , costing 684K jobs, $524 more in taxes, and shrink the GDP  

Per   https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-biden-tariffs/

• Candidate Trump has proposed significant tariff hikes as part of his presidential campaign; we estimate that if imposed, his proposed tariff increases would hike taxes by another $524 billion annually and shrink GDP by at least 0.8 percent, the capital stock by 0.7 percent, and employment by 684,000 full-time equivalent jobs. Our estimates do not capture the effects of retaliation, nor the additional harms that would stem from starting a global trade war.
• Academic and governmental studies find the Trump-Biden tariffs have raised prices and reduced output and employment, producing a net negative impact on the US economy.

.https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/crime-down-under-biden-steve-rattner-fact-checks-trump-s-latest-claims-217215557519

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2024/08/16/kamala-harris-releases-economic-agenda-heres-what-to-know/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4iTn_fxQijU

A short response to social media posts griping about high prices:

   https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/16/kamala-harris-economic-policy.html

-oil.. USA .first time since 1950 energy independent...producing more from all sources than we import. we are now exporting oil. (note: we do not have an energy shortage, so drill baby drill to increase supply as a solution is BS) Under Trump, imported lots of Venezuela oil; nearly 0 under Biden)

-Biden is responsible for inflation?. He dramatically decreased the rate. Trump would increase it. Under Biden, the rate of increase fell from 9% Covid end, caused by pent-up demand and supply chain problems, to under 3%...much due to the Federal Reserve raising interest rates.. Goal: 2% inflation normal rate. As expected in September, the Fed will lower interest rates. Trump plans to put a 10% tariff on all imports. Every top world economist says this would cause inflation to rise.

- violent crime? increased a bit under Trump and dropped 26% under Biden...legal immigrants and, even more dramatically, illegal ones rates much lower than native-born American crime rates.

- Illegal border crossings per day are down dramatically. 8k last December; 4K in May. 2K now. Biden exec order to refuse to hear asylum cases if crossings exceeded 2400 helped. , but Trump sabotaged even measures to build the rest of the wall and to fund increased staffing to hear and screen border crossers to separate actual asylum seekers (allowed by law)from those looking for economic refugees. (not a reason for asylum granting)

Trump yesterday gave no clear answers of how he could reduce prices to consumers and decrease housing costs except drill baby drill BS and give us the real inflation raiser, tariffs.

. Friday, Harris will give her plan.

Trump proposes to make inflation surge again

 As the inflation growth is slowing down, Biden's policies are beginning to work; in the meantime, Trump curries favor with big businesses, promising to have tax and regulatory policies dear to their ears. Inflation has indeed been Biden's Achilles heel.  However, one expert on the economy today on media says that Trump's policies would cause inflation to surge again, mainly because of his proposal to raise import taxes and enhances at a meeting with the Business Roundtable 6/13:

Updaate: June 25, 2024 "We believe that a second Trump term would have a negative impact on the U.S.'s economic standing in the world, and a destabilizing effect on the U.S.'s domestic economy," the economists write in the letter. "Many Americans are concerned about inflation, which has come down remarkably fast.7 hours ago

Scoop: 16 Nobel economists see a Trump inflation bomb - Axios

Axios

https://www.axios.com › Politics & Policy

There are other inflation boosters proposed by Trump:

•  One way is his promise to appoint loyalists to him to the  Federal Reserve, which would make decisions based on short-term political gains to make Boss Trump look good. That idiocy would take the lid off sound economic principles and throw the economy into chaos in the longer run but benefit Trump in the eyes of his low-information supporters.  Chaos is the worst enemy of businesses and Wall Street investors who depend on long-term planning they can depend on.
• Another Trump policy is to raise duties on all imports by 10% across the board. This one is a surefire proposal floated at a meeting with big business execs 6/13, per Yahoo News, and to make that take the place of income tax" and earlier with House GOP members.  Lovely for big businessmen, but screwed would everyone else, especially consumers on a budget. That is the ultimate of regressive taxation by shifting the burden to the working middle class and poor.  https://sg.news.yahoo.com/trump-floats-one-weird-idea-220317924.html
• . Another Trump proposed idiocy is to round up an estimated 10 million migrants to put them in concentration camps to determine if they had documentation of legality to deport them, which is also inflationary.   We already have a labor shortage and the best employment rates since the 1960s, which has contributed to inflation. along with the supply chain, COVID-19 caused shortages. 

https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/trump-allies-federal-reserve-independence-54423c2f

https://mufticforumblog.blogspot.com/2024/05/warning-to-consumers-buyer-beware-if.html

https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-vs-biden-an-economic-gamble-either-way-6c979881

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/13/trump-all-tariff-policy-to-replace-income-tax.html   This stupidity would allow US manufacturers the ability to raise their prices since they would not have to compete with cheap imports anymore.  Screw the consumer is the GOP's game.  Europe has the equivalent of this proposal called the VAT tax.   It is very regressive since per income level the poor and middle class pay a much larger portion of their income on basic needs.   Tariffs/duties/import charges are just passed on to consumers and not absorbed by profit margin-protecting businesses.   https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/tariff-trade-barrier-basics.asp#:~:text=Tariffs%20are%20a%20type%20of,passed%20on%20to%20end%20consumers.   The logic escapes me: killing off imports as a substitute for income taxes? That one is self-cannibalizing, killing off the source of income to the treasury..even if, at the beginning, it generates income.  It is also a formula for inflation, as costs are passed onto consumer prices.   .

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/14/ron-insana-trumps-all-tariff-policy-pitch-could-rattle-the-economy.html#:~:text=This%20week%2C%20Trump%20floated%20the,tax%20with%20a%20flat%20ta"Such a move would adversely affect the U.S. economy, raising taxes on those who can least afford them, stoking inflationary fires and, at least theoretically, spurring a recession."x.

Wall Street Journal...backing Trump, even says Trump is a gamble....but they look at it from the investor side and stock market (which is now booming)...and not from us the consumer side. Opinion | Trump vs. Biden: An Economic Gamble Either Way (msn.com  They acknowledge the inflationary risk Trump proposes and ignores the polarization of the Fed....which I see as the greatest threat to both investors and consumers.  https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-vs-biden-an-economic-gamble-either-way-6c979881

Warning to consumers: buyer beware if Trump is elected. Update: 6,/28/24

Today, the Trump Court has just overturned Chevron, 40 years of consumer and environmental protections. It is buyer beware, drinking water, product safety, the air you breathe, cars you drive, and the food you eat will now be unprotected.  This ruling will handcuff any agency like the Federal Trade Commission, the Food and Drug Administration, the Environmental Protection Agency, the Consumer Safety Commission, the Federal Communications Commission, the Financial Consumer Protection Agency, and any other federal agency from issuing regulations to fill in the blanks left unaddressed in legislation.  Instead, like abortion, it will fall into states to do it when clearly the issues cross state boundaries, leaving confusion.  Most states have laws conforming to current federal consumer and environmental consumer laws. 

Concerned about inflation?  Think that Trump cares about consumers? It is back to buyer beware if Trump is elected. He comes with a warning label.  He will be a danger to your health, safety, and pocketbook. If Trump wins in November, it is buyer beware. He is not consumer-friendly, no matter what policy he is selling you today.

 Is the Federal Reserve's attempt to slow down inflation working? If the goal is to cool down consumer spending and demand, which has been driving inflation post-COVID, it is beginning to work. Inflation figures have much to do with the interest rates controlled by the Fed. This is the only effective governmental tool available to keep the lid on inflation. Nearly a year ago, economists predicted the US would go into a severe recession within 6 months. That did not happen, either.  The Fed deserves credit for avoidance of that dire prediction, as well as for tapping the brakes instead of causing a crash landing. It is the only brake available to control inflation and takes finesse and expertise.  

Trump has other plans for the Federal Reserve and consumers, which would be a lasting idiocy. Finesse and trustworthiness are not Trump's strong suit. Developing, selling, and lying about the values of real estate are not qualifications to be an economist. Tinkering with the national central bank, which is the Fed, is not for amateurs or those with political agendas like Trump. So far, the US has the strongest economy in the world as it recovers from COVID-19.  The Fed is not broke, but Trump plans to break it. Trump is working on plans to set Federal Reserve rates himself. https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/trump-allies-federal-reserve-independence-54423c2f  You can trust Trump to do what will benefit him politically in the day's news cycle, but that is not the best basis to make complex economic judgments.  The economy will be thrown into uncertainty dependent on Trump's whims of the moment, and only "Yes, boss" advisors will surround him to give him no shot of reality.  

So far as consumers go, he has promised his oligarch friends who are coughing up campaign money he will lift the burden of environmental consumer and lender protections from their backs. Buyer beware did not work before, which is why those consumer protections became laws and rules in the first place.  It is back to the days of being unsafe at any speed and not breathing the air or drinking the water.  

One advantage in living so long is that I remember those days.  There are few of us left with an institutional memory like that.  It is now like what happened to Roe v Wade. We took it for granted for 50 years, and only when it was yanked away by Trump's appointments to the Supreme Court did we suddenly miss it. We have had a history of the past 50 years of being protected from unfair credit practices and products kept safe by laws and rules.  In the meantime, for all but the profit-craven and uncaringly blind, environmental protections became more than applied to clean water and air, but also to the extremes in climate change caused by man's indifference and exploitation.  We will miss those protections, too, when they are yanked away or subverted by Trump-loyal appointees.

Consumer spending is slowing down after a post-COVID buying binge. This raises the possibility of a reduction in interest rates in the near future. A little pain in these past months of high interest rates has kept us from a financial crash and a rip-roaring pain. 

 Target, Walmart, and Home Depot are seeing consumers shift to buying less, reacting to what they see as unjustified price rises that only pump up corporation's balance sheets. That is what the term "greedflation" has come to mean.   In fact, grocery chain profits are out of sight: https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-regulators-urge-congress-look-into-grocery-profits-2024-03-21/  

So far, Target has reduced price reductions in response, but expect Walmart to roll back and Home Depot to follow. That is how "greedflation" is fought with the free market system. It is a slow process, indeed, but in time it can work. Much of our economy is driven by consumer spending.  At the same time, wages have increased faster than the inflation rate, enabling consumers to afford higher prices on items they buy,  which has offset attempts to cool down inflation. Inflation has been Biden's political Achilles heel. Consumers have just not felt any improvement.  However, the inflation ship is slowly turning around, perhaps enough by November 2024.

So what would Trump do instead of the current Biden approach? We consumers need to brace ourselves for some idiocy.  There is no return to the good old days of pre-COVID, so stop dreaming. Trump is out to upset the apple cart with his plans for a second term.  He pretends to be the friend of those on a budget, but the policies he has promised us would do the opposite. A lesson in capitalism: The government cannot set consumer prices.  That only happens in communism. The government can influence prices, however, by allowing monopolies to set those prices among themselves as they snuff out competitors. Trump has made it clear he is the friend of and a beggar of their campaign donations from American oligarchs who love being monopolies and Trump's policies of keeping their taxes low and sabotaging consumer protections and environmental regulations.  He who pays the piper calls the tune, and while Trump's volatility day-to-day is the rule, he is, if anything, a keeper of political promises to those loyal to him.

The whole consumer movement began with Nader's "Unsafe at any speed," and Trump would make us sicker and unsafer as protections are sabotaged.  He would also put us at the mercy of unfair loan practices again as he ends the agency that watchdogged it. 

 Trump promises to take the pedal off the brakes of inflation by putting interest rates in his self-serving hands, which would make decisions based on short-term political gains to make Boss Trump look good. That idiocy would take the lid off sound economic principles and throw the economy into chaos in the longer run but benefit Trump in the eyes of his low-information supporters.  The other Trump policy is to raise duties on all imports by 10% across the board to protect US manufacturing and jobs.  Those are no more than 10% taxes on consumers, which will be passed onto all of us consumers used to cheap clothes, furniture, and electronics of imports as retailers try to keep up their margins.  Another Trump proposed idiocy is to round up an estimated 10 million migrants to put them in concentration camps to determine if they had documentation of legality to deport them, which is also inflationary.   We already have a labor shortage and the best employment rates since the 1960s, which has been one of the contributors to inflation. along with the supply chain, COVID-19 caused shortages. 

MAGA has amnesia when it comes to the good old days under Trump just before COVID hit. On December 2019, just before COVID hit, the price per gallon...and Trump was pres...Year Dec2019 2.645 per Google. Today the price of gas average in Colorado is 3.288 per gal.The price of gas at the pump,  is up 65 cents per gallon over Trump days just before COVID hit....and we are dealing with the Ukraine war, too. Let 's not let the MAHA get away with their BS.. 

 Prices at the gas pumps will increase this summer as they always do to take advantage of higher demand by vacationers. Prices per barrel are set mostly by international cartels, which is always an unknown factor. Still, another idiocy aimed at Tumrp's low-information supporters is to "drill baby drill." Under Biden, we have pumped oil so much that we are now the largest producer of oil in the world and are a net exporter.  We never have ever pumped so much. 

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senate-panels-launch-probe-into-trump-quid-pro-quo-with-energy-execs-2024-05-23/ 

More on the subject, some appearing in past postings:

Update 5 15 24  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2024-05-15/us-cpi-report-for-april  

The good and bad news  From Forbes May 22, 2024 "Walmart, the world’s largest retailer, noted in its earnings call that customers are spending more on essentials and less on discretionary categories. Home Depot reported a drop in sales for the third quarter in a row as high interest rates cause customers to defer costlier home improvement projects that are typically financed. " 

Grocery price inflation is cooling down, per April figures; housing and gas at the pump are still inflationary, but signs are good enough that experts think it is possible the Fed will lower interest rates in the fall because the trend lines for inflation are going lower. Another good sign is that the free market system is still alive as retailers realize there is a business opportunity to compete with lower prices. Update: 5/20'24  https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/target-reduces-prices-5000-products-high-inflation-persists    Many of the items are in the grocery department. Look for the yellow tags.

https://mufticforumblog.blogspot.com/2024/05/still-ticked-at-high-grocery-prices-and.html

https://mufticforumblog.blogspot.com/2024/03/crony-capitalism-magas-threat-to.html

 https://www.cbpp.org/research/economy/tracking-the-recovery-from-the-pandemic-recessionJuly 2020, CBO published its first complete projections of GDP following the outbreak of the pandemic. They showed real GDP down 11.3 percent in the second quarter of 2020 and still down 5.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021, relative to CBO’s pre-pandemic January 2020 projections. CBO projections made in February 2021 were less pessimistic, showing GDP 2.3 percent below the pre-pandemic projection at the end of 2021. But in data available at the end of 2023, actual GDP generally tracked CBO’s pre-pandemic projections after the fourth quarter of 2021 and was above those projections at the end of 2023.

There is strong evidence the current deficit and debt and future projections are heavily due to the tax cuts for the rich.  Trump is promising to carry on with them. https://www.americanprogress.org/article/tax-cuts-are-primarily-responsible-for-the-increasing-debt-ratio/

Felicia Muftic's resume points to a lifetime of advocacy for consumers. She began as an activist for consumers in the late 1960s and 1970s. Her first consumer project was as a volunteer leader and coordinator to prove Denver's poorer consumers paid more at grocery stores by launching volunteers to survey and collect the data, and then she published it.  She is the author of the Colorado Consumer Handbook and has served as a consumer representative on many boards and commissions. She is a former white-collar crime and consumer protection unit director in Denver's district attorney's office. She has served as a president of the board and government relations staff of the local consumer credit counseling nonprofit agency.