Showing posts with label Erdogan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Erdogan. Show all posts

Thursday, April 3, 2025

Trump's tariff theories forget timing and that voters are also consumers

Trump's tariff theories forget timing, and that voters are also consumers. Even if Trump's theory that tariff wars will eventually benefit the economy, a timing problem will backfire on the GOP politically. Even if manufacturing comes back to the US, it takes years to build up domestic production facilities and capacity, well past the 2026 midterms and into 2028. Trump's tariff war will have an outsized impact on politics because all voters are also consumers, as tariff "taxes" price hikes will begin at once, some not until after pre-tariff inventory is eaten through. The tariff impact on higher prices will be felt by consumers well before the 2026 midterms.

Without cheaper competition from imports, domestic producers will be tempted to raise their prices to get higher profit margins (the difference between what the market will bear if consumers buy at the price, and what it costs to produce and sell). Products with imported parts will see some prices rise immediately.

I am no economist, but I do follow the impact public policy has on consumers, the focus of my 30-year career in public and government relations as both a regulator and an advocate for consumer rights. 

70 percent of the US economy is consumer-related. Sticker shock will be voter shock, especially for those who thought Trump cared about the prices and inflation. You can count on Democrats to chant we told you so and Trump himself is the one who caused the pain through his "tariff taxes". Those sensitive to prices for everyday consumer goods like clothes and electronics will be the most affected. Those who benefit, such as steel and auto manufacturing, in job creation and salaries, are far outnumbered by the number of price-sensitive consumers who are also voters. It will be even painful for the middle class if the Trump tariff war causes a recession with layoffs and 401 (k) s tanking.The result will be a decline in consumer buying as consumers adjust to the new reality. That, in turn, can also discourage investments in manufacturing and lead to layoffs.

Trump's trumpeting that manufacturing will "come roaring back to the US" has a timing problem. It takes years to construct new manufacturing facilities, and those facilities will be far more automated, far less employing human workers, so this will generate far fewer jobs than this would have been a decade ago. It will take several years for those facilities to be built, and by that time, both the 2026 and 2028 election seasons will be in the rear view mirror.

Update: 4/4/2025 Federal reserves did not lower interest rates because of uncertainties of labor shortage (immigration) and tariff policies length and amount with unknown specifics which could increase inflation. Interest rates are the only tool to cool inflation, so it is not the time to lower interest rates now. Inflation, then, still lurks in the future, it appears. The Trump administration had pressured the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. Instead, 4/4/2025, the Fed made no changes. ( Trump had threatened to take over the central bank fed decisions to suit his policies and political interests. It is a move that the dictator of Turkey, Erdogan, used to consolidate his power and now the value of the currency dropped from about 2 to one to the US dollar to 30 to one...The same disastrous policies of dropping interest rates for political reasons plagued he economies of South America for years. ) Turkey’s Erdogan sacks central bank governor after rate hike | Recep Tayyip Erdogan News | Al Jazeera      Why Turkey's currency is crashing after Erdogan got reelected | AP News


Sunday, March 3, 2024

Trump thinks fear of immigrants will get him the dictatorial power he craves. Is he wrong? updated 4/4/2024

Trump thinks fear of immigrants will help get him the dictatorial power he craves. Is he wrong? It has gotten him far ever since he cut his teeth on birtherism and entered presidential politics on the golden escalator. Copycat Trump thinks he is onto a good thing.  He may be evil, pandering to racism, the darkest side of humans, but he is not mistaken.    It worked for others, too, to consolidate dictatorial power, especially those he admires like Viktor Orban of Hungary, Erdogan of Turkey, and  Putin, as well. It is not in his interest to see a solution as the bi-partisan bill would have done.  Instead, he continues to rant about the dangerous immigrants flooding into the country while destroying the funding and the ability to screen them the bill provided when he demanded the MAGA House members declare the bill DOA.  Every one of those so dangerous immigrants who jump the river is on him from here on. Any thinking person should recognize that racist ranting is what it is...racist pandering to other racists..and a cynical campaign tactic. 

 When Orban visits Mar-A-Lago within a few days, and the two exchange trade secrets, the languages may translate, but the countries are very different. Orban's advice may work for Hungary about how to become a dictator by appealing to racist nationalists in a country that is 97% ethnic Magyar, while in the US the white population is under 60% and a significant number of them are not racist white supremacists.   https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/hungarys-viktor-orban-to-visit-former-president-donald-trump-at-florida-home-next-week#:

https://mufticforumblog.blogspot.com/2022/08/cpac-cheers-white-nationalist-dictator.html

https://mufticforumblog.blogspot.com/2024/03/viktor-orban-dangerous-role-model-for.html

 Sure we have an immigration problem, a broken system that is so dysfunctional, that jumping the river is an act of desperation by those fleeing violence and hopeless poverty. What we need is not a racist, anti-brown, White Nationalist, policy and slamming the door shut on all immigrants. Be careful what you wish. The unintended consequences are profound. What we need is sanity, a system that works as designed now, that conforms to our national ideals, ones that are not based on fear and hate. Trump just killed one that would have taken us there and funded it. 

We have a political leader whose main platform is hatred and fear-mongering. Many who are ignorant or paranoid or racist do easily believe immigrants are what Trump calls them, rapists, murderers, poisoning our blood (pure Nazi words), and escapees from an insane asylum. Immigrants have a 30% lower incarceration rate than nonimmigrants. https://siepr.stanford.edu/news/mythical-tie-between-immigration-and-crime  Be afraid of them is his motto he tries to ride the same driver of hatred of immigrants and others different from his supporters. 

It is that fear factor ginned up by power-hungry demagogues that fueled the rise of modern-day dictators like Viktor Orban (fear of Syrian refugees), Erdogan (fear of Kurds), and Putin  (Chechnya. Breslan School siege, and hyper Russian Orthodox nationalism) and historical ones like Hitler. (Hatred of Jews). Once in power, they stay in power as they use their newfound power to destroy even further any chance of democracy surviving or reviving..  In each of these cases, fear of others not of their pure blood or religion gave them the ability to convince fellow citizens to give up their form of democracy and their own personal civil rights to seek salvation in a "strong man", "autocrat'. a "dictator". In each of these cases, once these wannabe modern dictators got into office,  destroyed immigration or subdued immigrants, they also seized and amassed power, feathered their nests, and kept power once the "crisis" was over.  They remain in office until this very day.  In Hitler's case, his militaristic economy and society ended in rubble and his own life came to an end in a Berlin bunker.  Copycat Trump thinks he is onto a good thing.  Those who put their faith in some strong man because of fear of immigrants were a bunch of fools who have been played successfully by power-seeking demagogues.

What we need is a sane immigration system that recognizes and administers immigration laws, well funded, with the capability to execute the laws that set priorities and screen immigrants desiring to enter the US.  That sanity was contained in the Senate version of border security laws which House Speaker Johnson declared DOA under the orders of Donald Trump. If the Senate version had passed, Trump would have lost his best sales pitch, to keep the chaos flaming on the front burner so "only he could fix it". . His promise: he would round up and put into concentration camps at least nine million for processing the deportation of the undocumented, even those who were not rapists, or murderers, but otherwise law-abiding, moms, dads, and DACA kids.   Expect even those with green cards and citizenship who look Hispanic to be stopped and questioned or produce their documents. The racial profiling and trampling of rights would be epic.

This is in addition to the historical and moral history of the US, a nation of immigrants, who have brought innovation, talent, and the storied work ethic of immigrants and first-generation and beyond descendants. 

One of my puzzles is why south Florida immigrants are so attracted to Trump, who calls their countries of origin sh... ho..   countries and immigrants from them are poisoning the blood of Americans. Why would Venezuelans want to trade a dictatorship like Maduro for another dictator like Trump?  It seems like such racism would be a turnoff, but it is not.  In fact, his anti-immigrant posture is OK for those already in the US because it must not seem as if it is aimed at them but at those at the southern border.  I have always thought there was an element of class in the Venezuelan Miami community, having had some conversations with them in the early 2000s' in international clubs as we awaited plane changes to the Caribbean.  The first refugees were the middle and upper classes fleeing the Chavez/Maduro regime, and the more recent ones were the young and lower classes.   Jose Diaz-Balart shed some light on it on MSNBC in interviews  4 4 2024 with current Miami immigrants, many with family ties back in their country of origin.  They are angry that the Biden administration has not done more to come down harder on the Cuban, Madoro, and other bad actor regimes; they have ignored these troubled countries,  and they also fear the influx of the less desirable into their communities.  They relate to Trump's characterization of the immigrants at the border now and do not see it as a reflection of their race or ethnic origin.  

Beslan school attack | Siege, Massacre, & Aftermath | Britannica  Putin used this to consolidate his power.

Kurds fear Erdogan win amid sharper nationalist rhetoric | Reuters   Erdogan has used anti-Kurd rhetoric to gain and consolidate his dictatorship.

Hungary election: Who is Viktor Orban and how has he stayed in power for so long? | Euronews

https://siepr.stanford.edu/news/mythical-tie-between-immigration-and-crime

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Sunday, May 21, 2023

How dictators make elections look free but are not fair: MAGA is a wannabe

How a dictator controls elections: Free but not fair. MAGA is a wannabe. Turkey and Hungary provide the blueprint for those who aspire to be "autocratic/" dictatorial rulers and, once prosperous, stay in authoritarian control while looking like elections were reasonably held and publicly supported. Fareed Zakaria on CNN 5/21 provided a clear and concise description of where in the world, including Turkey and Hungary, why and how elections may look free but are not fair, and liberal democracies such as ours have been destroyed. https://fb.watch/kFVpNRilsV The MAGA movement is example number one of an attempt and a desire of a political campaign to copy these tactics and destroy a democracy that is both free and fair. Trump and DeSantis, and CPAC fawn over Viktor Orban's dictatorial rule. Like him, Turkey's Erdogan had to first gain control of the judiciary and, on one pretext or another, be able to discredit, gag, or, in Turkey, jail his most threatening opponent and opposition journalists. In Turkey and Orban's Hungary, the dictators and their supporters control the media. Lies and corruption go unchallenged, and there is no platform for opposition public expression. The legislative branch was controlled early in the process by unfair elections or intimidation. The judiciary is a rubber stamp operation owned by the dictators' appointments to the bench in nearly all instances, ruling in the dictators 'interests. Their legislators nod in unified support of the leaders to whom they owe their positions.

Sadly, both Turkey and Hungary are members of NATO. Turkey has attempted to play both sides of the Ukrainian war. They are the reason Sweden has not yet been granted membership in NATO.

The MAGA GOP's current tactics reveal their attempt for their core supporter minority to control the rest of us, comprising the majority, Democrats, independents, and moderate Republicans. The MAGAs further undermine the "free" election perception by attempting to claim elections are neither free nor fair. They unfairly try to make it more inconvenient for those to vote whose votes they fear and intimidation at the polls themselves. Their targets are racial minorities and younger voters. Fortunately for democracy, they have not yet sufficiently corrupted much of the judiciary, but they have seized total control of a large number of state legislatures and state houses. By claiming media who reports negatively about them, MAGA has managed a de facto control of the messaging reaching loyal supporters who view all other media reports they do not like as "fake news" or "lib" slanted, ignoring, downplaying, or cherry picking, facts, and data. No wonder they are shocked or in disbelief when national polls and elections do not go their way. "Why, everyone I know and my sole media outlets to which I tune in agreed." Those votes must be the result of fraud to explain the outcome, they believe, and the stolen 2020 election is still their mouthed mantra, the ticket into the MAGA clubhouse.

In all honesty, those of the left who also are in their media silos think most right-wingers are inhumane, hate-filled, uneducated nut cases. "We are such a divided country," the tongue-wagging pundits use as an excuse to explain away close election calls. Radicals on the left and right are also guilty, claiming anyone who compromises is "disloyal to their cause." The only way to break this curse is beginning to happen as independents and moderate Republicans revolt and vote. The midterms and recent polls of independents are revealing this new trend.
There are many known and obvious tactics of voter suppression. Among the tools the MAGAs use in the South are reducing early voting windows, mail-in voting, eliminating ballot drop boxes in targeted neighborhoods, claiming fraud that the election was stolen when they lost without providing evidence, gerrymanders, and district boundary drawing by legislative bodies they control that give their side more districts resorting to distorting the public will and sentiment, approving violence or threatening and intimidating racial or ethnic groups with antagonistic partisan poll watchers and unleashing or otherwise protecting violent constituents like the neo-Nazis, Proud Boys, Three percenters, Oath Keepers, and others from prosecution. To them, all judicial system prosecutions are just political, laws and evidence and juries to the contrary notwithstanding. While Trump's role in inciting January 6 is still being revealed in various court cases, he recently stated in a rally that he would, if elected, pardon those already convicted for everything from vandalism to criminal conspiracy to overturn the election of 2020. The "House" sub-sub-committee on government overreach led by Jim Jordan to attempt to prove a conspiracy of the "lib" FBI against MAGA Trump in 2020 or another committee to try to show "the Biden crime family" has so far fizzled. This was thanks to when the Durham special investigation final report failed to find evidence of widespread conspiracy in the FBI's Russia election interference cases and the disappearance of the key witness to Hunter's laptop. That the AG Barr and 63 federal judges and the Supreme Court found no evidence of widespread election fraud in 2020 points to the importance of an independent judiciary holding its ground. The MAGA crowd blithely ignores and is still missing judicial findings.

Current figures on those identifying as conservatives most loyal to FOX, AON, NEWSMax , especially after Hannity's departure, in 2021 (impacting the 2022 midterms) are available: Newsmax and OAN News Consumers Also Likely To Turn to Fox News | Pew Research Center


 

Friday, March 31, 2023

Indictments not just about Trump but the future of our democratic system (update 4/2/23)

For some Americans, the indictment of Trump was enough reason to oppose him. The former governor from Arkansas has just jumped into the 2024 primary. https://www.forbes.com/sites/marisadellatto/2023/04/02/ex-arkansas-gov-asa-hutchinson-running-for-president-in-2024/?sh=4909aad1ba35&utm_medium=browser_notifications&utm_source=pushly&utm_campaign=2845286

Update 4/12/2023:  Trump fawns over Xi and Putin, again,  his inner self on public again display for the kind of government he would like to have in the US. "They are smart because they rule with an iron fist."  Trump Repeats Praise Of 'Smart' Putin, Touts Xi's 'Iron Fist' Rule Of China |

 Watch (msn.com) Hannity Tells Trump Putin Is ‘Evil’ After the Former President Says ‘I Got Along with Him Great’ (msn.com)  and in Waco, he calls Xi and Putin smart. Trump Praises Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping at Waco Rally (mediaite.com)  : Trump Repeats Praise Of 'Smart' Putin, Touts Xi's 'Iron Fist' Rule Of China | Watch (msn.com)


This indictment by the New York DA may not be the last indictment of Trump, but it is the first one. The reaction has already become  a predictable, pre-written script that the GOP would call it a witchhunt, a political act to keep Trump from running in 2024, the weaponization of the system, a shameful violation of his rights, and the Democrats would respond "no one is above the law."   It is far more than just about Donald Trump and suspicions about 2024.  It is about what kind of democracy, if any,  we will have in the future. 

If he gets elected in 2024 in spite of convictions or unresolved indictments and he still can serve as president, it is no short-term impact.; it may be for as long as he lives, occupies the White House, or for future successors like him. We will kiss democracy as we have known it goodbye. If we have learned anything recently from Russia to Hungary, to Turkey, and the events in Israel that is what happens when a strong man takes over and uses his power grab to destroy the opposition.  Once he consolidates power at the beginning of his reign, it becomes a forever position unless a velvet or bloody revolution unhorses him.

A violation of his rights? Where does it say in any governing document he has more rights than you and me?.  Whether Trump is a president, ex-president, candidate, or citizen Trump, he has the same rights as every American. Twenty-three citizen jurors in New York voted there was probable cause to believe he committed crimes and needs to have his day in court. He is innocent until the jury finds him guilty, just like you and me.  If  Trump escapes all of the charges without any serious repercussions to himself, legal or political,  it could inspire and establish the route and precedent for any other wannabe dictator to grab power in the future because Trump will have demonstrated how to get around any rule of law or a prosecutor that may stand in his way.  If voters still support him and think he should run for president  (poll: 74% of the GOP  thinks he should even if indicted) and he wins in spite of the legal jeopardy and judgments facing him, they will get what they deserve: helter-skelter goes democracy to be replaced by the rule of their so-admired autocrat/dictator/strong man and the rest of us, will be fighting hard for our human rights in the face of this autocrat trampling ours. 3/29/23 - Mixed Signals On Trump: Majority Says Criminal Charges Should Disqualify '24 Run, Popularity Is Unchanged, Leads DeSantis By Double Digits, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds | Quinnipiac University Poll

Trump has made no secret of his contempt for the rule of law that threatens his power and his admiration of the Putin style of rule. CPAC and  GOP FOX opinion hosts have fawned over Viktor Orban in Hungary. Trump has already demonstrated on January 6 and leading up to it his technique of how he could overturn any election he did not like.  Once that happens, anyone, Trump, or a future wannabe dictator, will have the blueprint laid out for them, and impossible to unhorse through the ballot. 

 Take some pages from recent events to understand how former democracies lost their democracy to dictators and autocrats. In Ukraine, it was at first velvet, but now it is war. In Byelorus, velvet failed, and now Russia's nuclear weapons reside there, Putin's puppet is in control,  and the opposition is either in prison or in exile. Putin, Orban, and  Ergogan are already in control of all of the power centers of governance and their puppet legislatures rewrote laws to guarantee that they will stay in power for as long as they want. It could be a  murderous regime like Putin's or it could be Putin-light controlled by fear of "retribution".  Will our country then be like Hungary's Orban or Turkey's Erdogan where there is no independent judiciary to hold the president accountable for crimes, corruption,  or extra-legal persecution of the opposition,? In time even the legislature is filled with loyalists as they got there through sham elections and fear of retaliation if they did not become loyal. Will it be like that where the rule of law that existed before the coup or election, has been replaced formally or by interpretation of the boss and selective enforcement, and protestors are made powerless by force, threats, and worse? Will we become what Israel's Netanyahu wants his country to be: Orbanized, so he can destroy the judiciary, avoiding the repercussions of the indictment hanging over his head. Netanyahu has fired any cabinet member who crossed him, and the streets are filled with protestors ranging from civilians to members of defense forces. Either Netanyahu backs down, or he faces this ongoing velvet revolution. That drama, autocracy v democracy, is unfolding before our very TV-glued eyes. 


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A footnote: The US is not Hungary or Turkey, and it will not tolerate a sustained autocratic takeover gradually or peacefully like Orban (HungaryL84% Magyar) and Erdogan of Turkey (80% Turks)did.  Both govern a country over which they became the autocrat by step by step stealth and cunning. They were able to destroy any checks on their abuse of power by putting their supporters in control of their once-independent judiciary and legislatures. Most of Putin's Russia (71% ethnic Russian )also shares language and religion and Putin can appeal to their nationalism to keep in power as he is did by rallying support when his Ukraine invasion stalled out.  The US has English as a common language though Spanish is now a second one in some areas, but it is far more diverse in many ways.  White people are now about 57% per the US census bureau, and the prediction is that this majority will become the minority in future years if demographic trends continue.    Age and generation will play a much bigger part in shaping politics than racial identification. What is coming down the pike is far more  "liberal".Younger voters are poised to upend American politics (brookings.edu)  The glue holding us together in our recent history is the peace of stability in governance, and liberty to pursue happiness. When it comes to supporting the kind of "liberal" democracy we have now, the future of democracy as we have known it depends on the generations now coming of age. They are far more "liberal" politically than those in power now, and democracy will be in their hands. This "liberalism" stretches across all racial and ethnic groups.  The change feared by white nationalists is they will be replaced by brown and black people. What they should fear is that they will be replaced by a younger generation.    In the meantime, we are in a noisy, raucous, potentially dangerous, and violent place in transition.  A significant part of our country, a minority still, is looking toward autocracy..  They should be careful what they wish.  Autocracy is what the founders of our country revolted against for a reason.  Protecting democracy and containing autocracy (brookings.edu)


Democrats' Witch-Hunt of Trump (mailchi.mp)

https://www.cpr.org/2023/03/30/donald-trump-indictment-colorado-response/

Sunday, October 10, 2021

Imagine what it is like to live in a country without a democracy

Imagine what it is like to live in a country without a democracy Most in this country do not have the time, patience, or desire to read books written by professors, about history or political theories. Even then we do not have to consult experts and pundits to see what is happening before our very eyes and what we are experiencing.. though it takes some perspective, stepping back into history, and listening carefully to what is happening elsewhere.    Most of those in this country have never known anything but our democracy as we have practiced it for 250 years and may live under the assumption that it will just continue in spite of those who want to change it.  Most of us are too busy trying to make a dime just to go about our day-to-day lives. Its eternity is not a slam dunk.; It takes work to continue. Even Ben Franklin questioned our republic would last because we the people had to keep it.

  Most of us have no concept of what living in an autocracy or a dictatorship is like, or even a banana republic, yet to most of us these are just abstract, political science terms. and even these alternatives can be attractive..   We see problems and changes that affect our lives, and want some strong leader to fix it,  and blame democracy for making it difficult for some savior to ride in on a white horse and rule by edict.  With a touch of a pen, the law is changed, the problem is removed, and the "trains run on time".and peace and prosperity come to the land. Be careful what you wish. The rest of us may not realize an alternative to democracy is gaining steam.

Imagine what it is like to live in a country without a democracy We have just had an election that unseated a president who tried to stay in power even though he lost the 2020 election by the same margin he won his election in 2016. Many of the strategies Donald Trump used failed this time. He used lies and touted theories that were never backed up with evidence, replacing agency leadership with yes people, fomenting a violent mob attack on the Capitol,, an attempt to force the military, and his own vice president to act contrary to the Constitution. He did not achieve his ultimate goal to overturn an election and stay in power for four more years..Nearly eight months later sixty-seven percent of his own party polled did not see these actions as a threat to democracy and continue to approve his actions, and 44% want Donald Trump to run again.. Per the same poll, 24%  even long for an "autocrat" to run the country.  They have turned a blind eye to the lessons of history and current events in other countries.. . 67% of GOP want Trump to stay in politics, 44% want him to run for president | Pew Research Center    They will succeed unless the rest of us are alarmed enough to realize how these forces are attempting to turn the democracy we have known into the rule of a person. instead of rule by the people. as expressed freely. in fair elections. Sixty federal judges of all political stripes could find o evidence that the election was stolen by fraud.  The GOP is trying hard to end fair and free elections in the future. They have a multi-state concerted strategy to make law changes designed to control and overturn popular vote outcomes they do not like by controlling who counts the vote and giving legislatures they control the right to pick electors they favor regardless of their state's popular vote.  The GOP is flirting with an end of democracy as we have known it for 250 years,  replacing it with a nation led by a wannabe autocrat who failed at his first attempt to be one. 

 Imagine what it would be like to live in an autocracy, a dictatorship.  It is not hard for me to imagine. I am into my 80's and I have seen dictatorships and autocracies rise, fall, and survive and I have seen some of them first hand, on the ground, and in-country. I have personally experienced those run by a communist dictator opposed to capitalism and I have seen the remnants of one headed by a fascist dictator in cahoots with big capitalism. It should not be hard for those with their eyes wide open to imagine because it has happened in Russia, Hungary, Turkey in the western hemisphere since the end of the Cold War, and it is happening now  Like the fascists of th 1930s. most current dictators and autocrats rose to power with the consent of a majority or near majority, and once there gained great control by abusing, ignoring,  and manipulating existing laws to consolidate power. They can be there until some revolt,, velvet or bloody, brings them down. Absolute power does corrupt, and even once fellow travelers have no way to end the inevitable corruption as their country's leaders feather their privileged nests. 

For those who hope for the autocracy of someone like Donald Trump, try to imagine what it would be like to live in a dictatorship in our modern era.  We have three models to consider, all began with the consent of the governed and now have morphed into dictatorships, oppressing its challengers in various ways. They are not as extreme in control of your personal life as in  North Korea, or even  Fascist Germany or Stalinist communism. None the less they share some similarities. So imagine yourself living in Russia where Putin has almost asserted total governmental control, or in Erdogan's Turkey that is not far behind. Hungary under Viktor Orban is the newbie, an autocracy in process, where the opposition press has been destroyed and favors are handed out to loyalists, ensuring self-interested loyalty of backers of Orban. The majority of citizens in all three countries handed over their democratic freedoms out of fear of civil chaos, fear of violent extremists, or fear of the end of ethnic purity as middle east refugees knocked on their doors. Thanks to the internet, not all opposition has been left in the total darkness of what is happening in reality.   Imagine a government in which whistleblowers have no public platform in media or branch of government to call out corruption,. The opposition press had been bought out or closed down. They may like their leaders' policies but are incensed with the corruption with no outlet for their anger. Whistleblowers and reporters get imprisoned or poisoned or "accidentally" fall out of a high rise, or are assassinated in broad daylight in a public square if their objections pose a threat to the leader.  Imagine, the minority of those pledging allegiance to their leader is able to control the majority because, the majority takes away the ability of the minority to complain or to rally, even peacefully.  Whoever holds all the levers of governmental power can benefit themselves since no body of government, legislature, or judiciary will block him. They are controlled by loyal appointees who swear allegiance to him instead of their sworn oaths to obey the Constitution.  Imagine, the majority takes away the ability of a minority to complain or to rally,.   That is how Putin, Orban, and Erdogan rose to power and still rule...It takes more than one term to reach this control level, but Donald Trump made a start of it especially in the few frantic months left in his term as he tried to overturn the election... . We, the non Trumpers,  are ignorant fools if we let this happen here.


Oct. 22, 2021: Per the New York Times, Russia has installed "black boxes" to interfere with social media and sites they do not like.  This is an attempt to shut down and control what their citizens have been able to access.  It reminds me of the old iron curtain days when radio broadcasts from the west were jammed.     This is the equivalent in current technology.  

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Some personal memories of what was like to experience the most extreme forms of dictatorships, Stalinist type of rule. or know those who survived fascism...I have experienced those run by a communist dictator opposed to capitalism and I have seen the remnants of one headed by a fascist dictator in cahoots with big capitalism  Their public policies and ideology may have differed, but the methods of gaining power and keeping power were similar. Some of their techniques have been adopted by current autocrats and dictators that are in power now.  In most cases, both the Nazis and fascists in the 1930s and the dictators and autocrats emerging in the post-Cold War era came to power by abusing and using democracy, subverted it, and kept power to govern with iron fists.

. I attended a university in Berlin twelve years after the end of World War II.   I was married to a refugee from a communist country for 53 years.  As his native land moved from the practices of Stalin to a more relaxed communist rule, we were able to visit and spend time in Yugoslavia still while it was under the thumb of a dictator,  Tito. They first permitted those who left without approval to return to visit, provided they had served in their military draft and posed no threat to the regime. When Dr. Mike Muftic became stateless in 1959, he had thought he would never see his mother again. In 1972, with three you children in tow, we spent the first of many visits over the years vacationing there and being with relatives.Those who may have objected to the regime were kept in tow by fear, fear of imprisonment, fear of loss of a better job, fear of not being able to get the perks that others got.   We experienced how people lived in a country that tolerated no dissent and whose allegiance was to their president. Even 25 years into his rule, it was instructive of how he maintained his control. . Laws and constitution were window dressing or used as tools to keep in power the president and his compatriots. Radio broadcasts from the West were jammed and only approved newspapers were on the stands to be bought. Dissidents were already in jail or had fled the country.  Yes, everyone had an equal opportunity to get a job, and all were equally poor.   Critics of the regime who had not achieved a large following were not given privileges of the others, the ability to get promotions or even to pursue their professional dreams, even whispers of dissent were dangerous.  There was every incentive to keep one's mouth shut, to speak nary a bad word about the leader.  Instead, jokes we would call racist focused on the stupidity of certain ethnics that became code for disguising criticism of the regime.  There were some really funny ones, but to put it into a similar context in the US, imagine the non PC vogue of ethnic jokes...such as how many of the hapless ethnic members did it take to screw in a lightbulb? One to hold a lightbulb and the other to turn the ladder around. Those were cloaked criticism of a stupid and inefficient government and everyone understood the allegories. . Substitute the leader's name for the hapless ethnic butt of the jokes, and forget the better job, the better apartment, or the free beach vacation of the privileged.  There were spies loyal to the leader everywhere, on every block, and in every school.  Foreign travel was only allowed on educational or government or professional business, and only if family members were kept at home, to make it less likely the brain drain would happen.  Imagine, too, there was only one newspaper, one TV channel you could get what passed as "news",  which was all good news about how well the regime was doing.  News to the rules meant touting production of wheat figures, or what great recognition their glorious leader got from others in the world.  There were no small businesses permitted until later years; farms were either owned by the government or enough land was left in the hands of small truck farmers who sold their extra produce in farmers' markets. Yugoslavia's permission of small farmers differed from Russia and the people ate well. There was no starvation. Yes, there was free education, but the curriculum and content were approved by the leader and had to be in conformity of the ideology, whether or not there was a scientific basis Try having to explain to professors in oral exams how dialectical materialism had anything to do with medical truths, as my medical student husband to be once had to explain in order to pass.  

After a bloody civil war in the 1990s, Yugoslavia broke apart. The part Dr . Mke Muftic claimed as his original homeland became Croatia, now a modern, western state, a member of the EU and NATO.  After the setbacks of the civil war, and years of weeding out the worst of corruption, Croatia is finding its way to prosperity and democracy that resembles ours.  Its spectacular, unspoiled Adriatic coastline is now one of the hottest tourist venues in the world.  


How the minority party can rule the majority:  3 stats show the deck is stacked against Democrats - The Washington Post

https://www.politifact.com/article/2021/jul/14/are-state-legislators-really-seeking-power-overrul/

The new Texas voting law includes these 7 major changes - CNNPolitics




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Sunday, August 8, 2021

How the USA could become a banana republic

 In Central America there is a role model of bad governance we have tagged as banana republics, led by dictators and their cronies, enriching themselves while ignoring the needs of their citizens.   Those countries continue in power with inept, corrupt autocratic governance. . Military coups and violent revolutions are how regime change usually happens in such dictatorships, We ourselves came closer to becoming a banana republic within the past year in retrospect as more and more evidence of what happened emerges from both House hearings and recent books .  President Trump tried to overthrow the 2020 election so he could continue a second term.  These attempts may have failed, but they are characteristic of a wannabe dictator and there is no reason to believe that given the chance to be president again, he could become closer to achieving the power of the rule of a person instead of the rule of law.. A second term would have given him the time and ability to abuse his powers to achieve control of all three branches of government.  He would have the time and opportunity to replace the federal courts and the Justice Department with those willing to make judgment calls he favors.  If he controls both houses of Congress as well, the end of democracy as we know it, rule by the majority with rights protecting the minority, and any checks and balances on executive power, is dead.

Update 10/8Subpoenas have been issued to those key Trump figures who were in the room where it happened by the bi-partisan House Committee looking into the events of January 6, 2021. This will delay much as the subpoenas are fought in court.  However, others did testify in the Hearings to give more credence to the investigative reporting by Bob Woodward and  Robert Costa revealed in their recent book. 'Peril' Review: Bob Woodward's New Book Uncovers The Trump Era's Final Moments : NPR  For an updated post of how the US almost became a banana republic, go to the 10/8/posting with that title. https://mufticforumblog.blogspot.com/2021/10/how-us-almost-became-banana-republic.html

 The violent overthrow of democratically elected governments is against the laws of all democracies because the right to protest and to change leaders with the ballot box is the peaceful alternative that is provided to dissidents as their civil rights are protected.   The violent takeover of governments,, however, is being openly supported by a sizeable number of the GOP..  Now, fully one-half of those who identify themselves as Republicans approve or do not care if tools are used to defy constitutional law and use violence to achieve their political goals.  Most Republicans Say Force May Be Required to Save 'Traditional' America: Poll (businessinsider.com. Fortunately for American democracy, these banana Republicans,  approving of autocracy also, are currently about 26% of the total electorate per a recent Morning Consult poll.26% of Americans Are Highly 'Right-Wing Authoritarian,' New Poll Finds (businessinsider.com)

This is what we know. A president attempted to overturn an election he lost by filing lawsuits claiming enough voter fraud to explain why he should serve a second term..While the battle cry he used to turn over the results of the 2020 election was "stop the steal" based on what he had been told was a lie ) he lost because of voter fraud) the thief was him who tried to overturn the election results. He was told by his own attorney general their own investigations found no proof of widespread fraud that would have changed the election outcome, Trump persisted knowing this.  First, he tried with lawsuits.  All such suits were thrown out of courts by 60 judges of all political stripes for lack of evidence. Update  10/8/21 Next, he tried to put in a loyalist to head the Justice Department to make it look like the allegations of voter fraud by investigating them look credible, but the entire brass of the DOJ threatened to resign.  Failing that, an attorney, John Eastman, then laid out a blueprint for how Trump could get his second term in spite of the election results, including conspiring with Vice President Pence to decertify the electoral vote count and throw the election into the House that gave one state one vote, assuring the decertifying of election and upholding Trump's second term.READ Trump lawyer's memo on a six-step plan for Pence to overturn the election - CNNPolitics. Pence, after considering that, told the president on January 5 he could not do it, even when Trump called him "no longer his friend".Pence Said to Have Told Trump He Lacks Power to Change Election Result - The New York Times (nytimes.com) The riot was supposed to give Pence the guts to make the decertifying call.  .  ,  Trump in a "stop the steal rally" in advance of the riot at the Capitol,   inspired a mob to terrify legislators into not certifying the election of his opponent. The attempt, too, failed. The election of Joe Biden was certified the night of January 6. Other efforts to upend the democratic process were tried and failed, including threatening state election officials "to go out and find" more votes for him..That conversation was recorded on tape.. We are hearing allegations by witnesses  Trump tried to enlist the active military to put down opposition demonstrators, a plan thwarted by the Joint Chiefs.

 These attempts may have failed, but they are characteristic of a wannabe dictator and there is no reason to believe that given the chance to be president again, he could become closer to achieving the power of the rule of a person instead of the rule of law.

  Trump pressure campaign: Durbin report details DOJ, White House meeting - The Washington Post    MUFTIC FORUM BLOG: Why General Milley is emerging as a hero who saved democracy

Interviews with former Justice Department officials provide new details on Trump efforts to undermine election results - CNNPolitics

MUFTIC FORUM BLOG: Trump's attempted coup by court has gone down in flames, as did the reputation of the GOP

 

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 Usually, such coups, gradual or abrupt, peaceful or violent, changing governance from democracy to autocracy, are committed by an existing majority.  Their motivations can be racial, ethnic,  ideological, power-hunger, or financial., They consolidate power by denying rights and oppressing any challengers. Civil and human rights and means of communication and demonstrations of opposition to the ruling power are suppressed.

There is no such guarantee that those wishfully wanting an autocracy even if it would take violence or defiance of the Constitution, will be in the minority forever. These autocrats however are using the very tools they want to destroy if they got in power to advocate for their governance preference., free access to media, and protection of their civil rights to redress grievances peacefully. The history of the last century is of onetime existing western democracies taken over by one or a few actors slowly and step by step.  Rarely was there violence or a military coup.   Erdogan of Turkey's rise to a dictator is a classic example of how he fired those who were not loyal and replaced them with loyalists in the military and the judiciary. It takes time for this to happen successfully. That is one reason our own most recent wannabe autocrat failed. Trump had only four years in which to do gain control of the military, the Department of Justice, and the federal judiciary, by stuffing them with more yes men appointees   Imagine the greater success  Trump would have had another four years to gain greater control of these institutions... The leaders of those institutions held their ground and played a major role in blocking Trump's ambitions in 2020-2021,  believing their oath was to the Consitution and not to a president.   The hallmark of autocracy is that the pledge of loyalty is to the dear leader, not to any rule of law, such as the Consitution and the laws that flow from it.   

  Once hush hush agendas to establish an autocracy are now being spoken openly. Such views used to be called anti-American and dismissed as held by fringes.  . Now a  form of autocratic governance, the opposite of the kind of democracy we have had for 240 years, is even being promoted by prime-time news show talker, Tucker Carlson. Carlson is holding up the newest autocrat in Europe, Viktor Orban of Hungary, as a model Orban now controls 90% of Hungarian media and disdains "liberal democracy" that protects freedom of the press and gives civil rights to minorities. He has done this in the name of "Christianity" and "replacement" theories with ethnically pure Hungarian Christians, who are already overwhelmingly the majority of the existing population. How Tucker Carlson and the far right embraced Hungary’s authoritarian leader | Fox News | The Guardian  

 In a mammoth lack of understanding and with ignorance of  American history, those supporting such notions are wrapping themselves in American flags and calling themselves patriots restoring"traditional" democracy. There is nothing "traditional" about their interpretation of the Revolution not do their actions resemble what happened in 1776.  A tyrannical government of a King was exactly what the 1776 patriots revolted against. They instead embraced a new concept of democracy with governance determined through the ballot box by citizens and they constructed a Constitution in 1787 with a carefully orchestrated peaceful transition of power to the newly elected. Those using 1776 fighters of the American revolution to justify violence on January 6  are also ignorant of how the revolution was fought. It was not by rioters, but with contributions of regulated militias supplied by the 13 colonies under their authority and led by General Washington. Those claiming the election was stolen to justify their attempt to install Trump for a second term have failed to provide evidence of enough widespread election fraud and every single suit filed by Trump supporters has failed. The Trumpist financed "audit" in Arizona folded up its tent and quietly ended recently. This summer a federal judge dismissed a Trump-inspired class-action suit claiming election fraud as without evidence, frivolous, and "fantastical", ruling the attorneys who brought the suit had to pay millions to the extensively named defendants for their legal fees.

What can be done to prevent an American banana republic is not yet clear. Perhaps some laws and regulations may emerge but those bent on non democratic regime change have already indicated they would just ignore laws.  In the long run, it is up to those who understand the value of the kind of democracy we have had feel it is important enough to stand up and be counted to keep those anti-democracy views in a minority. We have a democracy, but only its people can keep it.

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In response to the posting of the above, a Trump supporter responded that the real dictator was Biden and pointed to what they saw was his censoring the press and knocking Trump off of Facebook and Twitter. The old trope was repeated that Biden would take "my guns away".  The Trrum supportert was challenged to provide quotes of what Biden said on these issues, but could not produce them. Instead, he said, look what he has done. If that is the standard, then indeed, we will look at what Biden has done . Biden is now in office. FOX and Newsmax are still on the air. No one censored them. Biden did not yank Trump off Facebook and Twitter. The owners of those social sites did because of Trump's lies. Laws regarding gun ownership by private citizens are far more restrictive in other western democracies, but that does not  a criterion of whether they are dictatorships or not.. I still have my gun and everyone I know who has them legally still has them. Biden has not even attempted to support legislation that would do that. He has supported the law enforcement crackdown on gunrunners and urban violence.. 

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Here is why I feel so strongly we should do everything to keep our  kind of  democracy as our form o governance  .I have seen it all in my lifetime of over 80 years. I lived in the burned-out, ruined aftermath of Hitler's fascism, the rise of the "dictatorship of the proletariat" which in reality was a repressive dictatorship by one strong man  Only sources of news permitted were government-approved. Individual civil rights and the ability to protest ended with opposition leaders sent to gulags or executed.  Show trials with judges loyal to their dear leader prevailed.  Even in Russia and Belarus today, poison and prison are the fate of those rallying demonstrations against the governments. My relatives by marriage barely survived the ethnic cleansing wars in the Balkans where tribalism resulted in 300 thousand victims in a population similar to current Colorado. It was famous for the mass killings of one ethnic group by another. I watched\ post-world war II   countries that emerged from communism and fascism with democratic forms of government resembling what we still call American democracy. I married a refugee from communism and. with frequent visits to his former country, I watched the transformation of the country he fled to become a democracy and their citizens prospered as members of the European Union and NATO.  This is the good news. The bad news is that all of these European countries have active fascist movements of large minorities who want to turn back the clock. They are enabled by the very form of government they want to destroy, free press, open and free elections, and the ability to assemble in protests. Sadly,  Hungary, a  Russian satellite that had embraced western democracy regressed to autocracy in the cause of racial purity as a reaction to middle Eastern refugees knocking on their doors. 

MUFTIC FORUM BLOG: Why General Milley is emerging as a hero who saved democracy

Interviews with former Justice Department officials provide new details on Trump efforts to undermine election results - CNNPolitics

Opinion | Our constitutional crisis is already here - The Washington Post


Saturday, July 28, 2018

Why I am worried about American Democracy's future

A version of this was published in the Sky Hi News July 31-Aug 1, 2018
https://www.skyhinews.com/news/opinion/muftic-why-i-am-worried-about-american-democracys-future/

Thirteen years after World War II ended I spent my university junior year abroad in Berlin. It was a heady time for a US political science major wondering why what had happened. The Wall had not yet been built. I had conversations with survivors of the Nazi regime that seized control of democratic government with populist support and violence and now it lay in ruins. I saw first
hand how the Soviets used propaganda and violence  to consolidate control of their conquered once democratic eastern Europe.  I married a medical student from Yugoslavia, then a communist country headed by dictator Tito who had both popular support and who used brute force. We settled in the US, he became a US citizen, a respected doctor in private practice, active in civic and political affairs, and never taking for granted the freedom to pursue his dreams. We first visited Yugoslavia and his family in 1972 when the country began to allow  refugees to visit. We returned about every two years until mid-2015, when he passed away. I experienced Yugoslavia in their brutal Stalinist era, fear of a late-night knock at the door, their period of a more benign dictatorship that still forbad dissent, and their civil war for independence. Today Croatia is democratic and a member of the EU and NATO. 

I wish such painful histories on no one. Modern autocrats like Putin of Russia and Erdogan of Turkey have used some of the same techniques 20th century dictators used to turn democracies into dictatorships.  Donald Trump admires them. and adopts and tolerates some of their media and election tactics. 

Fair elections are the very foundation of American democracy. Media free both to criticize and to validate is one key. Security of election systems is another.  An informed electorate that will and can listen to all sides of public debate, sorts truth from fiction, and then votes while trusting the integrity of election systems can nip wannabe despots in the bud, allowing democracy to
survive.

Like his “strong men” idols, Donald Trump is no fan of freedom of the press or an advocate of elections secure from foreign manipulation. Instead he frequently denies Russians meddled on his behalf in 2016 and favors and consults with media who support his views. In October he threatened to yank NBC’s broadcast licenses whose news reports also include news and data unfavorable to him. He calls media "enemies of the people”, tags reports he dislikes as” dishonest”,” “fake “, lies, while fact checkers work overtime exposing his playing loose with facts.  Just last week he told a VFW audience, “what you are seeing and what you are reading is not what’s happening…Just stick with us.” 
He continued to call contrary reports, "crap".. Claiming there are no credible facts except those presented by the Leader (Hitler called contrary press, the lying press..Lugenpresse) is a tool wannabe dictators  have used to destroy freedom of the press. In fact, at campaign rallies some of Trump supporters aggressively chanted "Lugenpresse" at reporters.


He banned a CNN reporter from the White House for asking tough questions, said he was yanking security clearances of former intelligence officials who criticized him, and initially left out of official Helsinki transcripts Putin admitting he wanted Trump to win in 2016. 

We know from Mueller’s indictment texts, Russians in 2016 used many media platforms to intensify racial and ideological divisions to help Trump. They hacked into state election systems and political party sites, showing an ability to manipulate future election outcomes.

So why am I worried about American democracy's future?  So many do not care. A July 17 Atlantic/PRRI poll found only 22% of Republicans thought influence from foreign government in our elections was a major problem versus 68% Democrats; 40% independents and a subservient GOP House just voted down funding for hardening state elections systems’ cyber security.   Democracy is fragile, and its survival depends upon the dedicated support of the governed.  That support is weak and fractured.

A worrisome poll:

40% of GOP members are OK with Russian meddling; 11% welcome it. https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/republicans-want-russia-influence-us-elections-202847050.html

Freedom of the press, concern about the rule of law, abiding by the Constitution, do not even turn up as a blip on polls of top voters' issues: .https://www.vox.com/.../2018-midterm-polls-policy...

A frightening poll;   https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a22600827/donald-trump-supporters-believe-the-media/



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https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-threatens-revoke-security-clearances-former-u-s-intel-chiefs-criticized-195018748.html?.tsrc=fauxdal

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/white-house-bans-cnn-reporter-rose-garden-event-after-she-n894686?cid=sm_npd_nn_fb_ma