Trump played by Russia again as his art of the deal may let Russia steal Ukraine

Trump gets played by Russia again as Trump toys with letting them have Ukraine.  Russia now rejects even a meeting with Zelensky, which was included in the proposal Trump made to have another meeting after the Alaska meeting of Trump with Putin.. If Trump does nothing now to provide the weapons Ukraine needs to offset Russian aggression, weapons that Europe does not have, he will go down in history as the weakling Putin admirer who purposely lost Ukraine and let Russia march eventually through Eastern Europe.

TACO Trump may strike again. His art of the deal may be to let Russia steal. When Trump gave Russia an ultimatum and then backed it up with a choice of 3 outcomes that included the US may do nothing,(what sort of a bargaining chip is that ?? or arm Ukraine, or levy sanctions (short-term useless), guess which outcome the Russians chose." duh, "US, we think you will do nothing and let us have Ukraine".

JD Vance Sunday says "energetic diplomacy" could still work. Question Vance: What is energetic when the "do nothing alternative" is still on the table (to do "no action" to deliver Ukraine weapons and "let them fight it out" without US help) ?: Vance expresses optimism that 'energetic diplomacy' will end the war in Ukraine

Official Says Without U.S. Funding, Ukraine's Defense Will Likely Collapse > U.S. Department of Defense > Defense Department News

Kremlin casts doubt on Trump's push for Ukraine peace as rifts remain unresolved

Trump: I may let Russia and Ukraine fight it out

How energy independence is key to Europe's surviving Russian land grabs

A very important shift in German policy toward natural gas. Update: 5/25/2025

Germany Recalibrates Climate Policy, Backs Gas Power Shift 

We should be keeping sacred in the Ukraine cease-fire negotiations that Russia never gets a larger foothold in Europe.  Energy independence is key to Europe's surviving Russian land grabs. At the beginning of the Ukraine conflict in 2014, when Russia forcefully annexed Crimea and Russia's paramilitary green-clad troops invaded the Ukraine Donbass region, Europe dragged its feet in coming to the aid of Ukraine's sovereignty because it relied on Russian pipelines of oil and natural gas to fuel its economies. It was cheap and readily available through prior years of pipeline building.  Then came the Ukraine/Russian conflict in 2014, seven years before the actual Russian full-scale military invasion of Ukraine. In the meantime, Western Europe struggled to wean itself off Russian oil and gas, with significant results, but it still depends on 18% of natural gas from Russia.  Europe knows well that he who supplies the energy and fuels calls the tune to which they must dance. 

I wrote this opinion piece that was published in the Sky Hi News soon after Russia annexed Crimea, which is as true today as it was in 2014, though times have changed, and Russian aggression to annex Ukraine has become a hot war.  The theory and the fears remain the same.

Sunday, March 9, 2014

Ukraine crisis puts energy independence on the front burner

The Ukraine crisis points to the importance of energy independence.  Much of the world’s strife can be attributed to the distribution of natural resources.  The givers control; the receivers are at their mercy, chained to them by supply line tethers.

 Oil has always driven much if not all  of US military and foreign policy. US’s entanglement in the middle east; its devastating invasion of Iraq; the first Gulf War  are just a few examples.  We are already approaching energy independence in this country with our ability to tap onto our vast natural gas reserves and our increase in oil production.  The Ukraine crisis points to the need for Europe to get itself independent of imports from Russia.

Columnist Thomas Friedman, writing in  the New York Times March 4, opined  Russian  Pres. Vadimir Putin  “ prefers to turn Russia into a mafia-run petro-state…all the better to steal from” and contends we should hit him where he hurts, forcing down energy prices with our own exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) ,  crashing the Russian economy which is pumped up  now on oil revenues..Undermining Putin’s petro revenues is better than going to war.

 The threat of Russia shutting off their energy supply is a powerful reason for allies like Germany  that gets 30% of its gas from Russia and other  European friends in a similar pickle  to resist joining us fully  in modifying Russia’s behavior. . Russia controls their shutoff valves .

Russian pipelines supply petro resources from one end of Western Europe to the Balkans (including as far south as Croatia). Their pipelines  crisscross the Ukraine, making control of it strategic to both Russia and Western Europe.

A couple of years ago I was traveling through Romania, a former Soviet satellite, and now a member of NATO and the EU.  Rusting  oil storage tanks and refineries dotted the landscape to remind us of its former importance as an oil producer.  However, we saw  a huge pipeline propped up above ground. I asked our guide where the oil was coming from now.  He said Russia. Why, I asked? Is the oil field dried up? No, he said, it is cheaper to get it from Russia than to drill it ourselves. Romania and the rest of Europe are addicted to Russian energy ..

Supplying western Europe with another source of natural gas from the US  is not a short term solution and it is controversial. Friedman contends just  to threaten and begin that process would have an  effect on Putin’s calculations immediately.

 To make good on the threat, we  need to change our laws that now  limit the amount of natural gas exports.  Terminals and certain processes  need to be built to handle LNG exports. Government approval needs to be streamlined .  Rep. Cory Gardner (R-CO)) and Sen. Mark Udall (D-CO)support reforming the process; other senators oppose(.http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-07)

 Some fear our energy costs would rise.. . Exporting oil  and natural gas means more fracking and the Keystone pipeline completion. Both are  fought by environmentalists. Friedman suggests  imposing  carbon taxes and raising our own gas tax  would  force world petro prices down.  My thought:  This trade off could  encourage alternative energy development   in the longer run. If anything, the Ukraine crisis will serve to put this public policy debate on the front burner.

A version of this blog ran as a column in the Sky Hi Daily News...www.skyhidailynews.com...March 28, 2014

From Google AI 3/30/2025

• The EU's dependence on Russian gas has decreased substantially since the war in Ukraine, with imports dropping from 45% of EU gas imports in 2021 to 18% in 2024. 
• Remaining Reliance:

  Despite the decrease, Russia still supplies 18% of the EU's natural gas imports. 
• Key Markets:

  Key markets for Russian LNG remain France, Belgium, and Spain, accounting for 85% of Russian LNG imports, with smaller amounts flowing into the Netherlands and Greece. 
• Pipeline Gas:

  In February 2025, the EU received 56 mcm/day of Russian gas via the TurkStream pipeline, a 11% monthly increase. 
• EU Imports:

  The EU's imports from Russia consisted of pipeline gas (EUR 9.6 bn), LNG (EUR 7 bn) and crude oil via pipeline (EUR 4 bn). 

• EU imports of Russian fossil fuels in third year of invasion surpass ...

  Feb 24, 2025 — CREA's analysis finds that tighter sanctions can slash Kremlin revenues by more than EUR 50 billion annually (20%). Si...

  

  Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air
• Europe Somehow Still Depends on Russia's Energy

  Jan 3, 2025 — Russian gas imports are Europe's most glaring failure, with Russia still making up 18 percent of all EU natural gas imp...

  

  Foreign Policy

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Featured snippet from the webOil products: Turkey, the largest buyer, has purchased 25% of Russia's oil product exports, followed by China (11%), and Brazil (11%). LNG: The EU was the largest buyer, purchasing 49% of Russia's LNG exports, followed by China (22%), and Japan (18%).Feb 11, 202

Trump's epic miscalculation on Ukraine: European resolve updated through May/27/2025

Update: 5/27/2025 The significance of Germany allowing Ukraine to use German missiles to strike deep into Russia is to send the only kind of message Putin understands...So far Ukraine has been constrained to shorter-range missile use, so Russia just moved its military bases and infrastructure used to attack Ukraine out of the West's self-imposed limits. Putin's attack using missiles on civilians in Ukraine may have backfired and caused the war to expand. https://mufticforumblog.blogspot.com/2025/05/time-for-trump-to-put-money-where-his.html

Both Putin and Trump miscalculated on Ukraine. Putin did not count on Germany's rearmament as a result of his Ukraine invasion.. This is a nightmare for Russian plans to reassemble the old sphere of Russian influence of the old USSR. Trump thought he could force Ukraine to take the Russian surrender deal, but he, too, did not count on Zelensky having a third party like Germany to provide a counter force to Russian aggression of any heft. The reality is that Trump's influence over western European interests has taken a blow, making America weaker again and causing him to waffle again towards supporting Ukraine...at least for the moment.

Update 5/25/25: Germany steps up to the plate in a big way, with 3billion euros for Ukrainse defense, and an energy policy toward natural gas, making it cheaper and more affordable Germany Recalibrates Climate Policy, Backs Gas Power Shift

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/europe-vows-billions-in-military-support-for-ukraine-as-u-s-meets-putin

Germany Deploys Troops on Russia's Doorstep for First Time Since World War II   Update 4/1/2025

Europe's Double Blow to Putin

MUFTIC FORUM BLOG: How energy independence is key to Europe's surviving Russian land grabs

Update: 5/14/2025 Germany: Merz vows to build Europe's strongest army

Update 3/12/25 

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukraine-russia-us-ceasefire-war-invasion-rcna195978   The ball is now in Putin's court.  The short-term nature and acknowledgment by Secretary of State Marco Rubio that Ukraine's security from a Russian takeover of the country were factors that helped get the US and Ukraine on the same page.  That's the US official position today. Tomorrow, who knows if Trump's bromance with Putin raises its head again.

 Ukraine also had an American gun pointed at them. It was extortion at the highest level: US withdrawal of military aid and intelligence gave Russia an unstoppable advantage in the last three days. Ukraine also needed a pause to give its troops a breather. Their lack of manpower is their greatest weakness, and Russia's endless store of human cannon fodder is their greatest asset. Ukraine's equalizer has been America's intelligence services, technology, and advanced weaponry. In the short term, Ukraine desperately needed that restored, and they had no choice but to accept the US deal that was to be presented to Russia.

 A wild card was played in this high-stakes game that had longer-term implications.  Europe would not stand for any peace deal that did not include Ukraine's security and independence from Russia. They presented a plan to put their money and policies where their mouths were. It was more than a threat; it was a policy shift that has already begun to be activated.. Trump did not count on European plans to guarantee Ukraine's independence by military force if needed...nor did Putin. While Russia may be reeling from the economic impact of the war effort, knowing that Europe would not stand for the Russian takeover of Ukraine by whatever means, subversion or hot war, must also be playing on Putin's mind. 

 The US has virtually ended the Atlantic alliance so long as Trump is president. The bond of trust has been so damaged by the Oval Office treatment of Zelensky, a last straw in Trump's constantly dissing NATO and Europe, that it may never recover. The European Union plus the UK, with France's leadership, stepped up to the plate and owned it, too, no longer dancing to the Trump tune.  Germany has now cast aside their aversion to becoming a military force separate from the US and has begun resurrecting their own military. 

The sad part about all of this is that the world's trust in the US acting rationally is gone, and the break with Europe by Trump's policy whiplashes and fawning over Russia is a permanent hangover.  Russia has a history of not respecting cease-fires. The fear is Russia will use the pause to consolidate power, rest troops, and resupply to continue the battle.. Putin's word is no better than Trump's; neither can be trusted.

What if Russia rejects the cease-fire now that the US has confirmed its goals were a permanent and lasting peace? (Implying security backup, if not stating it). What Russia did not calculate was the wild card Europe played.  Rubio reveals US response plans if Russia rejects ceasefire

The Impact of Sanctions and Alliances on Russian Military Capabilities | Royal United Services Institute

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/trump-s-new-ukraine-proposal-looks-like-an-offer-it-must-refuse/ar-AA1BSzNM?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=HCTS&cvid=aa5f513abaa84ab38798aa5d036d6144&ei=31

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Update: 3/8/2025:  In response to Europe planning to assist Ukraine if the US does not, Trump issued this threat, Trump considering pulling 35,000 US troops out of Germany as President becoming 'increasingly frustrated' with Europe   It is his usual bully response. What is so ironic is that since the beginning of his first term until now. Trump threatened to sabotage NATO because he complained Europe was not contributing its fair share. Now that they are planning to do it and defy Trump's new alliance with Russia against Ukraine, he is angry and threatening. Poland has now called up every eligible male to take military training. Major NATO nation puts all its men into military training as Europe fears war escalation  The UK beefs up Ukraine's attack drones in the Black Sea. US ally gives Zelensky huge boost to help target Putin's forces in the Black Sea   All are learning from history that if they had stopped Hitler at Munich as he got their OK to march into Sudetenland, there may not have been WWII.  Capitulation and appeasement, Trump's approach, is a history not to be repeated in the face of a stated aggressive Putin who makes it no secret he wants to reassemble the boundaries of control of the old Soviet Union.

The Trump regime has just tried to knee-cap Ukraine's ability to fight off Russia...first, cutting off aid and second, yanking them off the internet, and third, cutting them off from US intelligence support while the rest of the US sleeps at the wheel. It appears that this is more than blackmail to force Ukraine to agree to simply signing over mineral rights to the US. It appears that the Trump regime is actively and materially helping Russia conquer the rest of Ukraine by force.In direct response, the European Union has just committed $800 billion to shore up Europe's military defenses and to give Ukraine whatever it needs to buy weapons and shore up its finances.That is Trump's epic miscalculation. Neither Trump nor Putin expected that. This means the Trump regime is living in a fantasy world, having not counted on Europe not only stepping up to the plate but owning it; it also means that there will not be any peace in our time, as Trump would like to announce, forcing Ukraine to capitulate to agree to stop fighting without any guarantees protecting the security of the 80% of Ukraine left after handing over the 20% Russian now occupies. If Russia attempts to use the new alliance with the US to conquer the rest of Ukraine by force, they will be taking on the rest of Europe.

theguardian.com

EU chief unveils €800bn plan to ‘rearm’ Europe

‘We are ready to step up’ says Ursula von der Leyen after US suspen"A five-part plan to bolster Europe’s defence industry and increase its military capability could raise nearly €800bn (£660bn) and help provide urgent military support for Ukraine after the US suspended aid to Kyiv, the head of the European Commission has said."

All I am hearing from Trump in the Oval Office and until this day: Trump calls Zelensky ungrateful and demands he comes crawling back on his knees to tell him how grateful he is that America wanted him to take the deal they handed to him, take it or die. If Zelensky had taken it, he would have lost some mineral rights, but more than that...he would have been left with no security guarantees his country could survive and a cease-fire that had no consequences for Russia breaking it. .

Trump's personal animosity did not start with the Oval Office blowup. It started in Trump's first term, shortly after Zelensky was sworn into office, when Trump tried to extort Zelensky to find dirt on the Bidens or else Ukraine would not get their anti-tank missiles. This Oval Office ambush was an attempt to put him on the spot in public to sign a bad deal cooked up between Trump and Putin. Zelensky expressed how grateful he was every single time he visited he US during the Biden administration. Perhaps gratitude for being extorted is just not very appropriate.

The extortion attempt in the Oval Office shocked the world and convinced Europe that the alliance between Trump and Putin was not temporary or an empty threat or a one-off vote in the United Nations. It was serious, and Europe and the UK have decided to make the divorce between the Trump US and themselves mutual. Trump has lost control of the situation, threatening tariffs and threatening pulling troops from Germany, crippling Ukraine's ability to stave off Russian advances by stopping weapons supplies, intelligence sharing, and even Ukraine's internet. So far, Europe is rearming itself in a way that neither Putin nor Trump anticipated. In addition to the EU announcing a plan to raise $800 billion for rearming Europe and assisting Ukraine to stay secure, individual countries are also increasing their military and assisting Ukraine. Germany, in particular, was so shocked by Trump's Oval Office antics and an alliance with Russia that it has even shed its country's aversion to becoming a military power again and is now willing to revive, restore, and fund the new Wehrmacht.

Intelligence sharing has already begun to degrade as trust between Trump's USA and Europe is already broken. As Trump pivots to Russia, allies weigh sharing less intel with U.S. Trump's bull in the China Shop approach has left many shards of porcelain on the ground. No glue may ever put it together again. Trump owns the pieces.

Those in the US who cheer how Trump showed how powerful he was in that Oval Office fiasco, but the boomerang and backfire it caused is long-term damage to US national security. It is destroying NATO and an 80-year-old alliance that kept peace and provided prosperity for both sides of the Atlantic. With Europe stepping up to the plate and owning it, Ukraine has a chance to survive. If Zelensky had taken the bad deal, Ukraine likely would eventually be taken over by Putin with the help of Putin's new ally, Donald Trump.

I am beginning to see Trump critics calling him a mad king. It is way over the top..but he does seem obsessed with tariffs and Zelensky hatred and getting revenge on any challenger to his power..as he feels he is always being treated unfairly.

This isn't King George the Third or the insane, obsessed king of Neuschwanstein who are the analogies being made of Trump as a mad king, but the characters in the Game of Thrones and Harry Potter books have set the standards of what is good and what is evil. I now see references to them in media posted and spoken by younger generations when discussing Trump. Are these the political science textbooks of the younger generations of our time?

'Discussions are already happening' as U.S. allies ponder intel black-out due to Trump
Germany, Once a Beacon of Frugality, Jolts Europe With Planned Spending Splurge
Trump and Putin have unwittingly given Germany a golden opportunity
This Is How Europe Becomes The Military Power That The World Needs Now
Update 3/20/2025 Putin aggression and WW3 fears sees number of European nations move toward conscription - full list
UK announces new drone deal to help Ukraine tackle Russian threat in Black Sea
 https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/donald-trump-set-to-lift-ban-on-sharing-aid-and-intelligence-with-ukraine-after-last-minute-plea-by-keir-starmer/ar-AA1AEqrR
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/macron-warns-of-russian-threat-to-europe-as-nato-nations-mobilize-to-defend-ukraine/ar-AA1AnMWX?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=HCTS&cvid=e8157dd25db4434aa55a62e87c0179df&ei=17
'We are not alone': Zelensky thanks Europe at crisis summit