Trump's epic miscalculation on Ukraine: European resolve updated through May/27/2025

Update: 5/27/2025 The significance of Germany allowing Ukraine to use German missiles to strike deep into Russia is to send the only kind of message Putin understands...So far Ukraine has been constrained to shorter-range missile use, so Russia just moved its military bases and infrastructure used to attack Ukraine out of the West's self-imposed limits. Putin's attack using missiles on civilians in Ukraine may have backfired and caused the war to expand. https://mufticforumblog.blogspot.com/2025/05/time-for-trump-to-put-money-where-his.html

Both Putin and Trump miscalculated on Ukraine. Putin did not count on Germany's rearmament as a result of his Ukraine invasion.. This is a nightmare for Russian plans to reassemble the old sphere of Russian influence of the old USSR. Trump thought he could force Ukraine to take the Russian surrender deal, but he, too, did not count on Zelensky having a third party like Germany to provide a counter force to Russian aggression of any heft. The reality is that Trump's influence over western European interests has taken a blow, making America weaker again and causing him to waffle again towards supporting Ukraine...at least for the moment.

Update 5/25/25: Germany steps up to the plate in a big way, with 3billion euros for Ukrainse defense, and an energy policy toward natural gas, making it cheaper and more affordable Germany Recalibrates Climate Policy, Backs Gas Power Shift

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/europe-vows-billions-in-military-support-for-ukraine-as-u-s-meets-putin

Germany Deploys Troops on Russia's Doorstep for First Time Since World War II   Update 4/1/2025

Europe's Double Blow to Putin

MUFTIC FORUM BLOG: How energy independence is key to Europe's surviving Russian land grabs

Update: 5/14/2025 Germany: Merz vows to build Europe's strongest army

Update 3/12/25 

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukraine-russia-us-ceasefire-war-invasion-rcna195978   The ball is now in Putin's court.  The short-term nature and acknowledgment by Secretary of State Marco Rubio that Ukraine's security from a Russian takeover of the country were factors that helped get the US and Ukraine on the same page.  That's the US official position today. Tomorrow, who knows if Trump's bromance with Putin raises its head again.

 Ukraine also had an American gun pointed at them. It was extortion at the highest level: US withdrawal of military aid and intelligence gave Russia an unstoppable advantage in the last three days. Ukraine also needed a pause to give its troops a breather. Their lack of manpower is their greatest weakness, and Russia's endless store of human cannon fodder is their greatest asset. Ukraine's equalizer has been America's intelligence services, technology, and advanced weaponry. In the short term, Ukraine desperately needed that restored, and they had no choice but to accept the US deal that was to be presented to Russia.

 A wild card was played in this high-stakes game that had longer-term implications.  Europe would not stand for any peace deal that did not include Ukraine's security and independence from Russia. They presented a plan to put their money and policies where their mouths were. It was more than a threat; it was a policy shift that has already begun to be activated.. Trump did not count on European plans to guarantee Ukraine's independence by military force if needed...nor did Putin. While Russia may be reeling from the economic impact of the war effort, knowing that Europe would not stand for the Russian takeover of Ukraine by whatever means, subversion or hot war, must also be playing on Putin's mind. 

 The US has virtually ended the Atlantic alliance so long as Trump is president. The bond of trust has been so damaged by the Oval Office treatment of Zelensky, a last straw in Trump's constantly dissing NATO and Europe, that it may never recover. The European Union plus the UK, with France's leadership, stepped up to the plate and owned it, too, no longer dancing to the Trump tune.  Germany has now cast aside their aversion to becoming a military force separate from the US and has begun resurrecting their own military. 

The sad part about all of this is that the world's trust in the US acting rationally is gone, and the break with Europe by Trump's policy whiplashes and fawning over Russia is a permanent hangover.  Russia has a history of not respecting cease-fires. The fear is Russia will use the pause to consolidate power, rest troops, and resupply to continue the battle.. Putin's word is no better than Trump's; neither can be trusted.

What if Russia rejects the cease-fire now that the US has confirmed its goals were a permanent and lasting peace? (Implying security backup, if not stating it). What Russia did not calculate was the wild card Europe played.  Rubio reveals US response plans if Russia rejects ceasefire

The Impact of Sanctions and Alliances on Russian Military Capabilities | Royal United Services Institute

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/trump-s-new-ukraine-proposal-looks-like-an-offer-it-must-refuse/ar-AA1BSzNM?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=HCTS&cvid=aa5f513abaa84ab38798aa5d036d6144&ei=31

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Update: 3/8/2025:  In response to Europe planning to assist Ukraine if the US does not, Trump issued this threat, Trump considering pulling 35,000 US troops out of Germany as President becoming 'increasingly frustrated' with Europe   It is his usual bully response. What is so ironic is that since the beginning of his first term until now. Trump threatened to sabotage NATO because he complained Europe was not contributing its fair share. Now that they are planning to do it and defy Trump's new alliance with Russia against Ukraine, he is angry and threatening. Poland has now called up every eligible male to take military training. Major NATO nation puts all its men into military training as Europe fears war escalation  The UK beefs up Ukraine's attack drones in the Black Sea. US ally gives Zelensky huge boost to help target Putin's forces in the Black Sea   All are learning from history that if they had stopped Hitler at Munich as he got their OK to march into Sudetenland, there may not have been WWII.  Capitulation and appeasement, Trump's approach, is a history not to be repeated in the face of a stated aggressive Putin who makes it no secret he wants to reassemble the boundaries of control of the old Soviet Union.

The Trump regime has just tried to knee-cap Ukraine's ability to fight off Russia...first, cutting off aid and second, yanking them off the internet, and third, cutting them off from US intelligence support while the rest of the US sleeps at the wheel. It appears that this is more than blackmail to force Ukraine to agree to simply signing over mineral rights to the US. It appears that the Trump regime is actively and materially helping Russia conquer the rest of Ukraine by force.In direct response, the European Union has just committed $800 billion to shore up Europe's military defenses and to give Ukraine whatever it needs to buy weapons and shore up its finances.That is Trump's epic miscalculation. Neither Trump nor Putin expected that. This means the Trump regime is living in a fantasy world, having not counted on Europe not only stepping up to the plate but owning it; it also means that there will not be any peace in our time, as Trump would like to announce, forcing Ukraine to capitulate to agree to stop fighting without any guarantees protecting the security of the 80% of Ukraine left after handing over the 20% Russian now occupies. If Russia attempts to use the new alliance with the US to conquer the rest of Ukraine by force, they will be taking on the rest of Europe.

theguardian.com

EU chief unveils €800bn plan to ‘rearm’ Europe

‘We are ready to step up’ says Ursula von der Leyen after US suspen"A five-part plan to bolster Europe’s defence industry and increase its military capability could raise nearly €800bn (£660bn) and help provide urgent military support for Ukraine after the US suspended aid to Kyiv, the head of the European Commission has said."

All I am hearing from Trump in the Oval Office and until this day: Trump calls Zelensky ungrateful and demands he comes crawling back on his knees to tell him how grateful he is that America wanted him to take the deal they handed to him, take it or die. If Zelensky had taken it, he would have lost some mineral rights, but more than that...he would have been left with no security guarantees his country could survive and a cease-fire that had no consequences for Russia breaking it. .

Trump's personal animosity did not start with the Oval Office blowup. It started in Trump's first term, shortly after Zelensky was sworn into office, when Trump tried to extort Zelensky to find dirt on the Bidens or else Ukraine would not get their anti-tank missiles. This Oval Office ambush was an attempt to put him on the spot in public to sign a bad deal cooked up between Trump and Putin. Zelensky expressed how grateful he was every single time he visited he US during the Biden administration. Perhaps gratitude for being extorted is just not very appropriate.

The extortion attempt in the Oval Office shocked the world and convinced Europe that the alliance between Trump and Putin was not temporary or an empty threat or a one-off vote in the United Nations. It was serious, and Europe and the UK have decided to make the divorce between the Trump US and themselves mutual. Trump has lost control of the situation, threatening tariffs and threatening pulling troops from Germany, crippling Ukraine's ability to stave off Russian advances by stopping weapons supplies, intelligence sharing, and even Ukraine's internet. So far, Europe is rearming itself in a way that neither Putin nor Trump anticipated. In addition to the EU announcing a plan to raise $800 billion for rearming Europe and assisting Ukraine to stay secure, individual countries are also increasing their military and assisting Ukraine. Germany, in particular, was so shocked by Trump's Oval Office antics and an alliance with Russia that it has even shed its country's aversion to becoming a military power again and is now willing to revive, restore, and fund the new Wehrmacht.

Intelligence sharing has already begun to degrade as trust between Trump's USA and Europe is already broken. As Trump pivots to Russia, allies weigh sharing less intel with U.S. Trump's bull in the China Shop approach has left many shards of porcelain on the ground. No glue may ever put it together again. Trump owns the pieces.

Those in the US who cheer how Trump showed how powerful he was in that Oval Office fiasco, but the boomerang and backfire it caused is long-term damage to US national security. It is destroying NATO and an 80-year-old alliance that kept peace and provided prosperity for both sides of the Atlantic. With Europe stepping up to the plate and owning it, Ukraine has a chance to survive. If Zelensky had taken the bad deal, Ukraine likely would eventually be taken over by Putin with the help of Putin's new ally, Donald Trump.

I am beginning to see Trump critics calling him a mad king. It is way over the top..but he does seem obsessed with tariffs and Zelensky hatred and getting revenge on any challenger to his power..as he feels he is always being treated unfairly.

This isn't King George the Third or the insane, obsessed king of Neuschwanstein who are the analogies being made of Trump as a mad king, but the characters in the Game of Thrones and Harry Potter books have set the standards of what is good and what is evil. I now see references to them in media posted and spoken by younger generations when discussing Trump. Are these the political science textbooks of the younger generations of our time?

'Discussions are already happening' as U.S. allies ponder intel black-out due to Trump
Germany, Once a Beacon of Frugality, Jolts Europe With Planned Spending Splurge
Trump and Putin have unwittingly given Germany a golden opportunity
This Is How Europe Becomes The Military Power That The World Needs Now
Update 3/20/2025 Putin aggression and WW3 fears sees number of European nations move toward conscription - full list
UK announces new drone deal to help Ukraine tackle Russian threat in Black Sea
 https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/donald-trump-set-to-lift-ban-on-sharing-aid-and-intelligence-with-ukraine-after-last-minute-plea-by-keir-starmer/ar-AA1AEqrR
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/macron-warns-of-russian-threat-to-europe-as-nato-nations-mobilize-to-defend-ukraine/ar-AA1AnMWX?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=HCTS&cvid=e8157dd25db4434aa55a62e87c0179df&ei=17
'We are not alone': Zelensky thanks Europe at crisis summit

Is it 1939 all over again, a bookend of my life?

 A story my father told me:  On September 1, 1939, my father with 18-month-old me were sitting in our olive green Studebaker parked outside our tourist cottage in Grand Lake, Colorado.  My grandparents and mother were "under the weather "inside.  Dad turned on the car radio, and out of the speaker came the news that Hitler had invaded Poland.  Now, nearly 85 years later, I read the report that a predator nation was threatening a neighbor, Ukraine, with a takeover. inevitable if the West continued quibbling about whether to send more aid to that country bravely fighting a war against Russia.  The isolationists in the USA are blind to the danger as the GOP House leadership puts a stranglehold on US aid to Ukraine.  Those who have been victims in the line of fire in 1939 and the Cold War and now in 2024 know this is not the bloviating of the US libs. Poland would not be caught flat-footed again, so they have begun building bomb shelters. They are taking the dictator of Russia, Vladimir Putin, at his word and his goal to reassemble the territory Russia once controlled in the Cold War.  Poland sees itself as the next in line, and they and their immediate small neighbors of the Baltics are to be attacked if Ukraine fails to stop Russia from a takeover.  It seems more than ironic, in fact frightening, that my life could be bookended to two world wars because of the fumbling, bumbling, and gridlock of those who should have been smarter to have learned the lesson of the late 1930s.  

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/polands-capital-warsaw-earmarks-30-mln-bomb-shelters-other-security-2024-03-13/#:~:text=WARSAW%2C%20March%2013%20(Reuters),city's%20mayor%20said%20on%20Wednesday.

Years of appeasement and isolationism convinced Germany to set its sights on America and declare war against the US  four days after Pearl Harbor in 1941. They saw our isolationism and the Nazi sympathizers that had become a large political force in the US as making it ripe for the pickings. Pearl Harbor had just verified the US weakness, failure of intelligence services,  vulnerability, and the complications of fighting a two-front war worth declaring war on the US in the epic miscalculation that the US was an easy target that would be unwilling to put up much of a fight. This was before there was a NATO, and even if Trump's goal for the US to pull out of that mutual defense treaty, we would be back at September 1, 1939.

That the MAGA wing demands Europe pay their fair share need to update their information bank. Europe is.  The MAGA wing needs to stop lying about this and keeping their followers ignorant.

Europe awoke as the zombies are sleepwalking in the MAGA House. https://mufticforumblog.blogspot.com/2024/02/stop-whining-isolaitonsists-europe.html

A footnote: That green Studebaker lasted until after WWII because all manufacturing was geared to the war effort. Ration cards, shortages of certain food, toys made of cardboard, paper dolls, and war surplus canteens, dim lights as we practiced air raid blackouts, a father constantly worried as his brother fought in Italy, and two of my mother's brothers were bomber gunners or staff in the Pacific theater. Dad, rarely home,  was not in the military because he was essential services as the director of the "telephone exchanges" for an army camp, a POW camp, and a city of 40K throughout WWII. I wonder what it would be like with the aggressor and defenders now having nuclear weapons.

Let's get real on Ukraine peace talks.. Putin is just waiting for Trump's reelection to win update 10 16 23

Update: 10/16/23

Putin suffered another setback as Poland votes against right wing incumbents who had attempted to reduce support of Ukraine and connections with the EU .  https://apnews.com/article/poland-election-vote-720f7b81838c33ccb2865fb3bc6e0414

From my Facebook post this morning: An excellent backgrounder and a realistic look at the status of the war now. Just expect the World War I style of trench warfare will continue for another year unless by some unforeseen Ukrainian military breakthrough as Putin waits for Trump to hand him a victory. .NPR analysis raises the question if it should be time for Ukraine to ask for a cease-fire, but that was clearly put to rest by Zelensky's UN speech on September 19, 2023. He was defiant, and the peace plan he is putting forth calling for Russian withdrawal will probably go nowhere as long as Trump's reelection in 2024 is possible.. Why should Putin negotiate in good faith now when all he has to do is wait until November 2024, and the election of Trump and his MAGA GOP that oppose any future aid to Ukraine and Trump promises would end the war in a matter of minutes. Trump will just do the job for Putin by leaving Ukraine's territorial integrity flapping and tattered in the breeze with no option but to capitulate to Russia.

NPR.ORG

In Ukraine, the focus is the fighting, but are negotiations possible?

Ukraine's military offensive is making only limited progress. This is contributing to a debate on whether the U.S. needs to send even more powerful arms, or try to lay the groundwork for peace talks.

Trump's kitchen cabinet: Fox, Breitbart, Putin and Erdogan

A version of this was published  Jan 10 2019 online https://www.skyhinews.com/news/opinion-muftic-trumps-kitchen-cabinet-fox-breitbart-putin-and-erdogan/


In US  history a number of presidents did not rely on their staff and cabinet for advice, but took  cues  from cronies, friends, and trusted  peers. Those informal advisers were called  "kitchen cabinets".  They did not actually meet in a kitchen, but nonetheless they shaped the President's policies.  No one before has accused  the kitchen cabinet of ever working on behalf of a foreign government or radical ideologues , but this one could be a first.  Donald Trump's kitchen cabinet  with whom he has been consulting are those who are  not his official cabinet or national security advisers. Many of those  have either quit or have been fired.  There is evidence that his kitchen cabinet includes  autocrats he so admires as "strong leaders" and   who  are antagonistic to American security interests  or have their own agenda.  He has revised or commented on public policy, echoing Russian president Vladimir Putin's governments' talking points  in  verbatim terms and policy preferences.  Trump echos Putin's antagonism toward NATO and sympathizes with Russia's  invasion and takeover of  neighbors and  former satellites.  A telephone conversation with Turkey's president Erdogan resulted in a tweeted reversal of  US policies toward Syria  and calling for withdrawal of US troops, policies  to the benefit of both Turkey's and Russia's national interests. He numbers as trusted advisers   members of the media who represent some of the most extreme wings of his own party.  Criticism  by Rush Limbaugh, white nationalist leaning  Breitbart, and several Fox news personalities ended a deal with his own GOP Senate to avoid a government shutdown over his Great Wall of Trump. His daughter and son-in-law and his Mar-a-Lago members have unfiltered access to round out his kitchen cabinet.

 Since the days of Andrew Jackson in the 1830's, an  informal group of trusted advisers was called a "kitchen cabinet" because the decisions and policies were not being formed in the front parlor (the official cabinet and White House staff). Ronald Reagan's cabinet even contained a beer baron from Colorado, Joseph Coors.  Other presidents such as JFK, LBJ,  Ford, and FDR  relied on the advice of trusted friends instead of official advisers. That is not the problem. The Trump kitchen cabinet issue is the membership and their individual agenda.

Rachel Maddow, in a January 3, 2019   MSNBC program, noted  an AP report  revealed early in the administration  Trump had taken seriously Putin's  fabricated claim that Poland was going to invade Belarus. That was a Russian military disinformation campaign. She also cited  Putin's warning that Montenegro contained "aggressive  people" that could start World War III. That was Putin's view on the eve of that country's joining NATO, and  it was  parroted by Trump  in a 2018 TV interview. Trump echoed Putin's talking points  in  his January  2 2019 press briefing in which the President, out of the blue and a puzzle to  so many,   echoed Putin's  political party's  announced plan to revise  history to reflect that the Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 was justified  because of terrorist threats and  was not a mistake,  in spite of historical evidence to the contrary.

 This Trump/Putin echo chamber begs the suspicion that  Trump is in sympathy or in agreement with Russia  that any country can invade and takeover another country if they feel threatened, from Crimea to the rest of the Ukraine. He agrees with Russia that NATO is an alliance the US should not continue  though Trump gives reasons it is obsolete and members do not contribute enough. Russia views NATO as a threat to their expansionism.. Trump is already on record for lifting  sanctions imposed on Russia for the Crimea takeover. He has advocated earlier that Russia should manage  the Syria conflict. That would increase Russian influence in the region.  Russian troops are now  poised on the Ukrainian border. Poland has long feared Russia would find a pretense  to take back them and the Baltic states who were former Soviet satellites and now are  NATO members.  Montenegro, population of a less than a million ,  controls a key  port with access to the Mediterranean, lusted by Russia for centuries. Trump appears to be on Russia's side  in  many foreign policy matters, but "why "is still the question.

 See my column  in the Sky Hi News,  July 25, 2018, https://www.skyhinews.com/news/opinion/muftic-trump-dances-to-the-russian-tune-on-montenegro/ and a more detailed  www.mufticforumblog.blogspot.com  posting.
A footnote:  My particular interest in Montenegro began with a visit in 1958 and frequent revisits. Our family once imported wine from there and my late husband's family roots over 500 years ago, pre Ottoman invasion, were in Montenegro. He was born in Montenegro in 1933 when his father was governor of Montenegro. Montenegro was a province of Yugoslavia then.

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Trump_administration_dismissals_and_resignations#Color_key

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kitchen_Cabinet

https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/trump-curiously-well-versed-in-specific-russian-talking-points-1419581507654

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/09/01/mick-mulvaney-omb-trump-budget-profile-feature-215546

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/12/20/conservative-media-trump-border-wall-

July 25, 2018, https://www.skyhinews.com/news/opinion/muftic-trump-dances-to-the-russian-tune-on-montenegro/

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/dec/21/james-mattis-resignation-trump-erdogan-phone-call

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/white-house-tries-downplay-trump-echoing-russian-propaganda?cid=sm_fb_maddow

Trump's NATO policy has a Grand County impact.

There are many in Grand County who have more than a passing interest in what happens to NATO.  They still have family in eastern European countries that are current members of NATO and were once Soviet satellites.  Lithuanians and Poles  have settled here and have become respected members of our community. Those countries belong to NATO.  Other Eastern European settlers in Grand County from countries not in NATO are Russians and Moldovans.

Lithuanians, Latvians, and Estonians (the three Baltic States) and Poles in particular must be looking at alarming statements from Donald Trump for his comments that “We don’t really need NATO in its current form. NATO is obsolete…if we have to walk, we walk.”  Many  look with raised eyebrows  at the  sometimes called “bromance” with Russian President  Vladimir Putin.  Putin called Trump  "a brighter person, talented without a doubt." Putin reiterated has admiration of Donald Trump June 19 on Fareed Zakaria ‘s CNN program, as well as asking why the West still needs NATO.

Trump’s public assertion that not only is NATO obsolete, but their members are not living up to their promises to contribute. There is far more at stake than money.

Russia is on the march in a seeming attempt to reassemble former Soviet satellites , restoring past glories.  Russians also resent and fear  their former neighboring buffer states becoming NATO members and permitting missile defense installations (even if the defense systems are turned toward the Middle East) . Their grabbing  or helping surrogates grab   parts of non NATO members of Georgia, the Crimea and eastern Ukraine has been seen as a threat in particular to the NATO member Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.  NATO was quick to move more forces to the Baltics in response as a warning to Russia not to mess with members of NATO. Without NATO, the small Baltic states in particular would be vulnerable to a Crimea and Ukraine like grabs, making Poland and Romania especially at risk. In his June CNN comments, Putin slyly ignored Russia’s land grabs which would have answered his question of Why NATO?

There may not be a conspiracy involved, just a case of Trump’s ignorance or isolationist advocacy or wanting to make a deal with Russia,  but there is an interesting connection with his most inner advisor. It is his campaign chairman,  Paul Manafort, who was a political consultant to  once  president of the Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych. Yanukovych was attempting to stop some in his country who wanted greater trade ties with the West, while he was closely connected to Russia  and wanted his country to be more connected to them. A revolution followed in 2014.  During that revolution, Yanukovych fled first to the eastern Ukraine and now resides in exile in Russia.

Many in the United States’ foreign relations community on both sides of the aisle  look at Donald Trump’s foreign policy with alarm.  A particularly large howl was raised in a March open  letter  by 121 GOP national security leaders.  George W Bush’s secretary of State, Richard Armitage, announced  this month June,2016, he would vote for Hillary Clinton.

 http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/06/16/richard-armitage-plans-vote-hillary-clinton/he would vote for Hillary Clinton.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/29/politics/election-2016-trump-foreign-

policy/

http://warontherocks.com/2016/03/open-letter-on-donald-trump-from-gop-national-security-leaders/

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/06/16/richard-armitage-plans-vote-hillary-clinton/