Does Trump deserve credit for getting NATO members to pay 5%?

 Donald Trump is doing a victory dance.  He had demanded that NATO members pay dues of 2% (I had no problem with demanding NATO members pay their share), and now they agreed to 5% (all but Spain, now threatened by Trump with tariffs). Does Trump deserve credit? Yes, but not exactly for the way you might think. He had cajolled NATO members since his first term, teased them that he would not support them if invaded, and they did get the average up to 2% with significant holdouts..  However, it was not until the Oval Office ambush of Zelensky and where clearly Trump took Putin's side, and Trump failed to persuade Putin to negotiate a ceasefire in Ukraine,  that they agreed to the 5% at the meeting this week. (3.5 for military and 1.5 for related expenses).

 So give Trump credit. Now that he "won," forcing NATO to pay its fair share plus, he still will not firmly commit to Article 5 (the attack on one member is an attack on all) though he hinted at it, and he still has not yet committed to sending Ukraine the needed missile defense and other weapons Congress wants to fund.  Hopefully, now, he will have an excuse to do both. His self-imposed demand of 2% has been met and more than doubled. No more excuses, please. And no more thinking he can charm Putin. Putin only understands power. and NATO just delivered that message to him. As always with Trump, look at what he does, not what he says. He will get blowback from MAGA isolationists, and hope he does not TACO.

The real reason Europe at the NATO summit upped the goal to 5%?  Europe does not trust Trump to support Ukraine, and they are going to try to do it themselves, even if Trump walks. (Tough to do because the US has some strategic weapons they need that they cannot produce themselves)  It had become clear 1)  the US is not a reliable NATO member to provide aid to Ukraine; 2) if Ukraine fell to Russia, they all would be destabilized and may have to go to war.  

Is Europe's aid to Ukraine enough to hold off Russia?Forget America: Ukraine Can Win the War Against Russia   for an optimistic assessment.  This takes into account Trump's freeze on certain important aid to Ukraine.  

Germany is rebuilding its military, but it is still 6 years from its goal. Germany is unlocking billions to supercharge its military at a seismic moment for Europe | CNN

FYI. Trump's BS about the 2 to  5%. That is not dues to NATO.  That is a commitment of member nations to allocate that percent of their GDP (gross domestic product) to their own military defense. The US contributes 4%.   

One holdout had been Germany, and now Germany is gung-ho to rearm with a committed new chancellor, Friedrich Merz. Germany's public opinion against militarism after the shame of WWII,  reversed itself,  having disbanded the old Wehrmacht and had begun rearming, but now in high gear much thanks to the unintended consequences of the Oval Office ambush. This occurred in the midst of the German national elections this spring, contributing to Merz's rise to the chancellorship. 

The isolationists are still at the defense gate, and still have on their agenda the pulling out of Europe US forces stationed there. Careful .. Let us not be as stupid as we once were.  So long as once and now neo cold warrior Putin is driving his goal to reassemble the old Soviet Union satellites into his new Russian empire, these ideologues are as smart as the American Firsters and isolationist of the 1930's...and we know where that got us..  WWII.   Isolationism was perceived by our enemies as a sign of weakness, a favorable time to attack us or our allies.. The Major Trump Question Left Unanswered at NATO Summit - Newsweek

https://www.npr.org/2025/06/26/nx-s1-5445845/trump-nato-summit 

https://mufticforumblog.blogspot.com/2025/03/the-backfire-to-on-camera-trumpvance.html

https://mufticforumblog.blogspot.com/2025/06/germanys-rearmament-is-spurred-on.html

https://mufticforumblog.blogspot.com/2025/03/trumps-epic-miscalculation-on-ukraine.html

Germany's rearmament is spurred on; a fallout from the Oval Office ambush of Zelensky update 6/5/2025

Let's see how the new Chancellor of Germany, Friedrich Merz, handled the Oval Office ambush on June 5, 2025. Merz had the advantage of seeing Trump's ambush of earlier visitors twice. How did Merz do?  Nimble, wise, and no pushover.  This is a report written as the press conference unfolds in real time.(a prelude to more private discussions). My takeaway from the presser: Trump may have met an immovable object besides Zelensky: Friedrich Merz, while Trump's bromance with Putin is back on again for today.(masTACO?).  More: A possible ambush went awry; Merz places the blame on Trump for the war continuing, arguing that he had the power to halt it by pressuring Putin.

The agreement was clear: both wanted peace. How to get there was the profound rub. On sales of American natural gas to Germany, Trump seemed ok, but  (the US has plenty of gas), he  is tying it to tariff talks later between them.: Trump on German rearmament," guess it's a good thing Germany rearms.(up to a point: We'll be watching".(This could be a veiled warning to Germany; Trump may object to German missiles fired by Ukraine deep into Russia, which Merz just approved, as Trump holds onto his love of Putin)

 When asked about support for Ukraine, Trump went off on diversions and deflections that were red meat for the local media and did not answer.  It will be interesting to see how Merz deals with all of this as discussions continue. Merz is fluent in English and conducted this presser without a translator.  Most press questions from the Trump chosen friendly press corps were about national issues, immigration,/deportation budget bill, Musk, showing to me that the domestic press does not have a clue about the context of this meeting or just lobbed softballs to give Trump a chance to comment on domestic issues and to avoid a profound conflict of Trump and Merz over Ukraine policy.  The pertinent questions for Germany were asked by the German press attending, it appears.

 Merz later attempted to press Trump on Ukraine and US support, urging the follow-up discussions to put Ukraine on their agenda, but once again, Trump went off on how well recruitment was going in the US army (wink,wink: Germans are also against DEI) . Trump then continued and went off like a sad third-party analyst. Tsk-tsking the conflict, pinning no blame on Putin as he talked about yesterday's phone call with Putin, again with his refusing to take a side in the conflict, confirming the war will go on, and the West should stop hitting Russia's interior. Stop it, he said. He then made a sorry analogy... both sides (Putin, Ukraine) hate each other so war will go on in spite of his efforts to bring peace.." Just like two kids fighting..they'll get tired of it. Get tired of it. Sadly, the war will go on".  There was no recognition that Russia invaded Ukraine, trying to annex it to Russia, or that Ukraine was fighting as a nation for its very survival.  Or that Putin's latest peace conditions were a complete surrender of Ukraine, no security, give up Russian-occupied territory to Russia, etc.. " It was as if," Trump said, "Let the two kids fight it out; they will get tired of it, and then they will discuss". Trump firmly believes that Russia has more guns and cannon fodder, so Russia will win anyway.. Trump obviously has not counted on the wild card: Germany. 

 Merz, after giving Trump plenty of say, then set the stage for the world to blame Trump for the continuing conflict when he responded:" The only way to get peace is to put pressure on Putin. Germany is backing Ukraine. and building up their strength to do so. However,  the US has that ability to put pressure on Putin now." It looks like Merz pinned the blame on the lack of peace negotiations right on Trump for not putting pressure on Putin, saying the only way to bring about peace was to arm and support Ukraine, which could be done with more German help.

 An ambush gone wrong? Trump once again talked about the body parts of those killed in the conflict as to why he wanted peace now, and Merz countered that the carnage was done with Russian weapons against Ukrainian civilians and that Ukrainians were not targeting civilians like the Russians were doing.. Merz must have gotten an inkling that the pictures Trump was about to show were of military killed in battle, as Trump referenced a video he wanted to show. (and then didn't)  It looks like Merz knew Trump was going to key up pictures of body parts and headed it off.. Trump tried a similar ambush stunt on the visiting South African president that turned out to be a video of the Congo atrocities, not South African black on white farmers as it was purported to show. 

Trump's TACO waffling with Putin and his "throwing up his hands and walking away" signals something else more than just passively benefiting, bro Putin.  It also signals that third-party actions like Germany's have taken control of the situation from his hands. Both Putin and Trump made an epic miscalculation, assuming that Europe would never step up to the plate or not realizing that Ukrainians would be able to change the nature of modern warfare and manufacture their own drones to compensate for the lack of fighting manpower.

Continuing with an earlier posting 6/4/2025

While Spider Web was an ace up Zelensky's sleeve, the media in the US overlooked a long-term, more significant story: Germany's rearmining. Germany's rearmament is helped by a shift in German public opinion to the right, spurred on recently by fallout from the Oval Office meeting with Zelensky. Feb28. It resulted in the election of a new chancellor, May 6, who was committed to keeping Ukraine out of Russian hands. Friedrich Merz's conservative party had won the plurality of parliament Feb. 23, but assembling a coalition to reach a majority took some time. As soon as Merz was confirmed, he seized the Ukraine issue by the horns as a national security issue and vowed to increase Germany's conventional army dramatically. The Meaning of Germany's Dramatic Rearmament | TIME  

Merz then gives Ukraine the ability to use their missiles deep inside Russia.Does Germany's new military deal with Ukraine signal a more muscular stance on Russia? | DW News

Since WW II, Germany had virtually disbanded its military because of their history and internal opposition to Germany living up to its 2% commitment to NATO. Public opinion shifted (enhancing a recent trend to the right) after the Oval Office ambush of Zelensky and a realization that the US was no longer their military umbrella to protect themselves from the threat Russia's control of Ukraine presented to their own national security, and a realization that all of Western Europe would be destabilized.

It was an ace up Zelensky's sleeve that neither Trump nor Putin had counted on. Germany is emerging as both an economic and a military powerhouse, not to be ignored or discounted by Trump. Putin has overplayed his own hand and inspired Germany to rearm. If Trump thought Zelensky had no more cards to play and should accept a virtual surrender to Trump's pal, Putin, he was so wrong. Ukraine still believes it can win and is not ready to agree to Russia's terms, which are a virtual surrender. Putin thinks his superior numbers of fighters will win and outlast Ukraine. Ukraine's use of drones that it manufactures itself is how Ukraine can compensate for the lack of manpower. The success of Operation Spider Web and the damage to Russia's bridge to Crimea suggest that even a short-term peace agreement will not be reached. Both sides still think they can win.

Germany will not be up to full speed and force for a couple of years, but already has the ability to be effective with missiles. Trump's approval of US military aid to Ukraine is still critical in the short term. If he disapproves, and Ukraine collapses to Russia, he will go down in history as the president who lost Ukraine (he had the ability to save Ukrane, and did nothing) which will make Biden's nasty withdrawal from Afghanistan look like some, including Lindsay Graham, see it as a"walk in the park". To walk away will be Trump's blunder that will forever follow him into history.

Another miscalculation by Trump is the impressive bipartisan support still in Congress for Ukraine that is veto-proof.. The Graham-Blumenthal bill to impose more sanctions on Russia may pass despite Trump's reluctance to cross his buddy in the Kremlin.. Trump's waffling is another TACO that the pro-Ukraine backers in Congress are hoping for.

https://mufticforumblog.blogspot.com/2025/05/trump-and-putin-going-at-ukraine-again.html

https://mufticforumblog.blogspot.com/2025/05/time-for-trump-to-put-money-where-his.html

https://mufticforumblog.blogspot.com/2025/03/trumps-epic-miscalculation-on-ukraine.html

MUFTIC FORUM BLOG:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xb9q6w6NGN0

Trump and Putin going at Ukraine again but Zelensky has the ace up his sleeve updated 6/4/2025

Update: 6/2/2025   I was wrong about one thing. Zelensky had more than one ace up his sleeve (1.Europe support; 2) Spider Web, which he played it just as the next round of talks with Russia began. How the Spider Web attack worked is an amazing display of Ukrainian ingenuity and tech skills. This BBC report is a jaw dropper. It took 18 months of planning. This was an ace Zelensky had up his sleeve that Trump et al had no idea of, and at their Oval Office ambush, claimed Zelensky had no card to play. Zelensky must have had a stifled laugh, but he kept his poker face. https://mufticforumblog.blogspot.com/2025/06/germanys-rearmament-is-spurred-on.html

bbc.com

How Ukraine carried out daring 'Spider Web' attack on Russian bombers

 

As Trump and Putin come up again and again with a plan for a ceasefire..and then try to shove it down Ukraine's throat, Zelensky does not have to cave into doing something he thinks is not in Ukraine's interest. His ace is Europe, which has stepped up to the plate. Neither Putin nor Trump ever counted on that. Trump and Putin are on the phone again after the Turkey talks are a bust. Live updates: Ukraine’s allies call Russian demands unacceptable after first talks in years | CNN   The president of Finland observed something similar, but he left  outTrump's role making the same mistake.Putin told he's made 'biggest strategic mistake in military history' | World | News | Express.co.uk

Germany in particular has stepped up to the plate, shifting public policy toward gas making it more efficient and affordable, and committing 3 billion euros toward defense of Ukraine. Yes, that is a B for billion. Germany Recalibrates Climate Policy, Backs Gas Power Shift

May 20 update:The May 19 telephone call has been called a non-starter. It turned out to be a realization by Trump that Putin is truly only interested in peace after to takes over all of Ukraine. Trump then claimed he would not be part of the cease fire/peace negotiations and leave it up to Ukraine and Russia to get-together.  This is a good development, and it has good bipartisan support. It also signals that there is still significant support for Ukraine. Graham's powerful argument to Trump: Your heritage would be if you were blamed for the loss of Ukraine as Russia marches into Kyiv.....That would eclipse Biden's loss of Afghanistan. As Trump's call with Putin on Monday caused Trump to just withdraw as a party to cease-fire negotiations, the question becomes, will US physical support continue for Ukraine? ThisGraham bill would turn the screws on Russia's economy with more sanctions. Support for it does not address the military aid and support issue, but it could portend the continuation of such support. In the meantime, ignored or not taken seriously in the press is the change in Europe, which indeed is realizing they have to step up to the plate, and they are...

The mood has shifted and become clearer with the election of the new German chancellor, who is committed to protecting Ukraine's independence from Russia because he believes it is key to the stability of all of Europe. They are rearming their country to make it the most significant military power in Europe as part of their goal, as well as going with the rest of the EU in financing military aid for Ukraine. Germany alone cannot save Ukraine, and US military support is still needed. Still, coupled with France, likewise committed, as are other NATO members, they are a factor Russia never counted on and give hope to Zelensky that they can still win. The longer the conflict is drawn out, the weaker Russia will become due to the damage of sanctions and running out of cannon fodder soldiers.

Zelensky issues defiant three-word response to Trump-Putin call   Putin's demands...totally unacceptable to Ukraine....give up western arms; hand over territory occupied by Russia   etc.

Continuing with the May 19 post:

Per Richard Haass, Atlantic Council... Putin will keep playing his game, sabotaging any peace/pause talks, so long as he thinks he is winning, and he still thinks he is. He will stop if he sees enough resistance to him emerge.  Putin appears to have the support of those he rules, and his oil-based economy is coping with the low international oil prices, according to an analyst from the Wall Street Journal 5/18 morning on MSNBC. Ann Applebaum in the Atlantic reported on recent conversations with Ukrainians who believe they are ready and able to go on fighting for some time.  

Putin will continue to play games, teasing ceasefires, especially so long as Trump appeases him and this thing drags out if Europe waffles. Putin also counts on Trumpism rightists to win elections in Europe.. The right-wingers are losing...in Germany last month and this week in Romania, and the stop Putin backbone is emerging as Europe has stopped waffling and is making real material commitments to Ukraine's defense. France had already committed; Germany did this month. Trump is still playing footsy, and Putin is counting on him to continue. Putin needs to be convinced he cannot win Ukraine, and he is pinning his hopes on Trump and Europe's weak resolve. Europe is awakening; the question is, can it get its act together in time if Trump flakes out?

https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/18/europe/romania-presidential-election-result-intl-latam 

Trump says he will speak with Putin, Zelenskiy on Monday | Reuters    Phone call scheduled for 5/19

From an updated prior post: MUFTIC FORUM BLOG: Trump's epic miscalculation on Ukraine: European resolve updated through May/14/2025

Both Putin and Trump miscalculated on Ukraine. Putin did not count on Germany's rearmament as a result of his Ukraine invasion.. This is a nightmare for Russian plans to reassemble the old sphere of Russian influence of the old USSR. Trump thought he could force Ukraine to take the Russian surrender deal, but he, too, did not count on Zelensky having a third party like Germany to provide a counter force to Russian aggression of any heft. The reality is that Trump's influence over western European interests has taken a blow, making America weaker again and causing him to waffle again towards supporting Ukraine...at least for the moment. Note: 6/6/2025: President of Finland made a similar remark, going into greater detail with Putin's strategic blunders on Ukraine, though he left out any reference to Trump who also made the same mistake. Putin told he's made 'biggest strategic mistake in military history' | World | News | Express.co.uk

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/europe-vows-billions-in-military-support-for-ukraine-as-u-s-meets-putin

Germany Deploys Troops on Russia's Doorstep for First Time Since World War II   Update 4/1/2025

Europe's Double Blow to Putin

MUFTIC FORUM BLOG: How energy independence is key to Europe's surviving Russian land grabs

Update: 5/14/2025 Germany: Merz vows to build Europe's strongest army

https://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/world/macron-urges-putin-to-accept-ceasefire-in-major-global-talks/ar-AA1F2jCJ

From: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/germany-merz-vows-to-build-europe-s-strongest-army/ar-AA1ELzoL?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=39a892b

Merz wants Germany to have 'strongest conventional army in Europe' Merz has been emphatic in framing Russia's war in Ukraine as a direct threat to European peace.

"This terrible war and its outcome will not only determine the fate of Ukraine. Its outcome will determine whether law and justice continue to apply in Europe and the world -- or whether tyranny, military violence, and the naked law of the strongest will prevail."

"What is at stake in Ukraine is nothing less than the peace order of our entire continent."

Germany, he said, would reassert its leadership role in Europe, rebuild trust with partners, and back Ukraine unambiguously.

"We are not a party to the war, and we do not intend to become one. But we are also not disinterested third parties or neutral mediators between the fronts. There must be no doubt where we stand: unambiguously on the side of Ukrainians."

Promising the Bundeswehr would become "the strongest conventional army in Europe," Merz pledged sustained investment and a new voluntary national service.

"This is appropriate for the most populous and economically strongest country in Europe. That is what our friends and partners expect of us -- indeed, they are explicitly demanding it."

Chancellor pays tribute to predecessor Scholz Merz has paid tribute to his predecessor Olaf Scholz for his response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Scholz has been praised for announcing a shift in Germany's approach to its military, boosting defense spending and ending reliance on Russian energy. He later became a key supporter of Ukraine through arms, aid, and EU unity.

Merz addressed Scholz personally: "Your response to Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine was pioneering -- and historic. For that, you have the thanks and recognition of this House and our entire cou

The backfire to the on camera Trump/Vance ambush of Zelensky is beginning updated. 3/24/2025

Update 3/24/2025: Support holds firm for Ukraine in spite of ambush evants and Trump's waffling... waffling...https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/poll-americans-are-rooting-ukraine-think-trump-prefers-russia-rcna196163

Update: 3/4/2025 Zelensky signals he will return to the negotiating table.  In the meantime, Trump trumped the lie in his state of the union address 3/4/2025 that Europe had provided less suppor than the US has done. https://www.factcheck.org/2025/03/trump-exaggerates-on-u-s-and-european-aid-to-ukraine-loans/

 Update: 3/1/2025 https://www.foxnews.com/world/world-leaders-back-zelenskyy-following-trump-vance-oval-office-spat     Vance's ambush of Zelensky backfires on the US. World leaders line up behind Zelensky. There is at chance Europe will now back Zelensky, enabling him to continue fighting in spite of the US pressuring him to accept a bad deal with Russia. This may signal an irreparable break with Europe as an ally, leaving the US allied with Russia, Iran, and North Korea, among others. 

Zelensky met with European leaders following the  Oval Office blowup, and they are crafting an alternative peace plan. It would still require some participation by the US.  Given Trump's determination to ally with Russia, that may not get very far. The next step after that is a work in process with Europe forming a "coalition of the willing"..https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-britain-zelenskyy-europe-starmer-trump-russia-b980170ead74a1a7914c565f14ee6cc9

3/5/2025  Germany restructures debt laws  to increase spending on military and aid to Ukraine. German parties agree historic debt overhaul to revamp military and economy | Reuters

Right now, it looks like Europe is buying some time, calling for a one month truce.https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/france-britain-propose-partial-one-month-ukraine-truce-macron-tells-le-figaro-2025-03-02/

https://mufticforumblog.blogspot.com/2025/03/is-putin-blackmailing-us-and-west-with.html  Is Putin using nuclear threats to blackmail the US to capitulate and appease.?  It sounds like it.

  After Trump-Zelensky blowup, Europe may be more willing to seize frozen Russian assets while EU official says ‘the free world needs a new leader Does Europe have any bargaining chips with Russia? Not yet on the table, Europe holds $330 billion in frozen Russian assets, which are kept for rebuilding Ukraine. While Europe is reluctant to use such frozen assets of another nation's sovereign fund, it could be a bargaining chip as part of a guarantee of Ukraine's security. It could be used if Russia attacked NATO allies.. If released, the money could be used for Ukraine's purchase of weapons on the open market. That could be appealing to Germany, which is already a major manufacturer of weapons for Ukraine and would cut out US manufacturers that are benefitting now.

Trump's error is assuming Ukraine has no other alternatives, so he had them over the barrel. With the elections in Germany resulting in a coalition of a centrist government and a coalition of the left and right of center, the path is cleared for Europe to give security guarantees and defend Ukraine's sovereignty independent of the US. France has already done so.

If Trump persists, he will be left with no deal, no peace in our times, and the fall out of disgust of his alliance with Russia, even the failure of capitulation and to

appeasement, and the end of 70 years of transatlantic alliance.

Trump will find himself allied with Russia, Iran,China, North Korea and a bunch of others. We used to call some of them the "axis of evil". This is not isolationism. It is entaglements of the worst kind

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpv4n0dg3v3o

https://open.substack.com/pub/thebulwark/p/trump-ukraine-deal-russia-minerals-putin-zelensky

Update: 2/28/2025   I just witnessed a s...t show on a presser with Zelensky and Trump with JD Vance on the attack. The upshot of Trump/Vance "Be grateful, Zelensky, we are taking your mineral rights with no guarantee of your security, and you have no choice but to agree with us." That Zelensky sat through the most disgusting show of an Oval Office presser in the history of the US was a remarkable show of self-restraint. He made no reference to the past bad blood between Trump and him. However, it was dredged up by Vance and Trump's personal attack.., bringing up dirt stretching back to Hunter Biden and impeachment resorting extortion attempt, was just plain ugly and made uglier with the parting words, "If you don't say you are grateful, " your country is finished," and we will have WWIII. This is on TV live. You do not negotiate like that. But it exposed the bully that Trump is and how much of a satellite nation of Russia that the US has become. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YkXWNiTQbV0     The threat of WWIII was an echo of the Kremlin line. 

Trump's alliance with Putin's Russia is a fool's gamble.

 Update: 2 24 2025: Trump's negotiating strategy is the art of the no deal. Not only did he give away NATO and 20% of Ukraine's territory in advance of beginning negotiations with Russia, he also tried to extort from Ukraine their natural resources that had a value of 4 times what the US has already contributed to Ukraine. In return, what does Ukraine get: no security guarantees, loss of 20% of its territory, and no way to stop further Russian aggression without outside help. Ukraine just said thanks, but no thanks.

Trump's error is assuming Ukraine has no other alternatives, so he had them over the barrel. With the elections in Germany resulting in a coalition of a centrist government and a coalition of the left and right of center, the path is cleared for Europe to give security guarantees and defend Ukraine's sovereignty independent of the US. France has already done so.

If Trump persists, he will be left with no deal, no peace in our times, and the fall out of disgust of his alliance with Russia, even the failure of capitulation and to

appeasement, and the end of 70 years of transatlantic alliance.

The US is no longer the leader of the free world but has half the power that it had when it was allied with Europe in December. New German chancellor Friedrich Merz has sworn to get independence from the US as quickly as German supporters of Ukraine rally at the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin.

Does Europe have any bargaining chips with Russia? Not yet on the table, Europe holds $330 billion in frozen Russian assets, which are kept for rebuilding Ukraine. While Europe is reluctant to use such frozen assets of another nation's sovereign fund, it could be a bargaining chip as part of a guarantee of Ukraine's security. If released, the money could be used for Ukraine's purchase of weapons on the open market. That could be appealing to Germany, which is already a major manufacturer of weapons for Ukraine and would cut out US manufacturers that are benefitting now.

Continuing with the original post.

Trump's new, informal alliance with Putin's Russia is a fool's gamble.
The implications are profound. Trump has green-lighted Russian aggression, indicating that he would not honor the mutual defense purpose of NATO to come to the defense of Poland and the Baltics. At this point, Trump has virtually killed off NATO by refusing to honor its 75-year-old purpose of stopping Soviet/Russian expansion by agreeing if one nation were attacked, all treaty members would respond militarily. Trump also indicated that he would withdraw US troops from Europe. The European countries now realize they are on their own to stop the Russian goal of reassembling the imperial Russia of the past, Putin's dream. To think that Europe would just let Russia finish its conquest of Ukraine and march on to Poland and the Baltics would be peaceful is a non-starter. To think the US people will tolerate that and not send in our troops eventually is a fool's gamble.

Trump may look like a hero to his loyal MAGA base. He is not looking like a hero to even the usually loyal New York Post, who called his policies and pressures on Ukraine "despicable," or to powerful senators from red states who called Putin a war criminal who should be in jail. GOP senators are now revolting against Trump on this issue: https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/20/politics/video/gop-senator-tillis-trump-putin-cancer-speech-senate-floor-digvid Sen. Thom Tillis made a fiery speech in the Senate.

Donald Trump's Favorite Newspaper Calls His Ukraine Proposal 'Despicable' - Newsweek   

Two GOP senators rail against Putin despite Trump’s rosy assessment of Russian leader | CNN Politics

Trump will go down in history as the president who lost Ukraine if he persists. Capitulation and appeasement are not good looks for the president who thinks he is a king.. 

Still, to Russia, America now looks like a weakling to our adversaries, unwilling to defend America's West European friends, with its president ripe for manipulation, flattery, and control by Putin. Trump is acting like one who aspires to be a "strong leader " like Putin. Putin is his peer group and the ideal of how he would like to govern..as he has openly opined. The chances are that it will backfire on him and on America's national security interests. Trump's alliance with Russia will reverberate as a greeenlight rekindling of the Balkan wars as the world is distracted with armed conflict in the rest of Europe, and the Chinese takeover of Taiwan, for starters, who sees America as too weak and unwilling to put up a fight.

Why does Trump have it in for Ukraine? Why is Trump risking national security interests and ticking off Europe? It seems irrational. My theory:

It's personal with Trump. Trump's attempt to blackmail Zelesnsky to find dirt on the Biden family and son Hunter's business dealings in Ukraine resulted in the impeachment of Trump.

Trump's animosity toward Zelensky is now playing out as Trump has now allied himself with Russia, which has resulted in classic Trump hurling insults on Twitter and social media and taking the Kremlin line that "Zelensky is a dictator. Absurdly, Trump parroted back the Russia line that Zelensky started the war, not Russia. Zelenksy should have agreed to Russian demands to stop aligning himself with the West and NATO and become a part of Mother Russia is what it implies. Martial law is still in effect. The war is still raging in 20% of Ukraine.. To say Zelensky is a dictator because he has not held an election since Russia invaded is a ploy, a bully bluster, and a talking point that only makes the bad blood worse. Zelensky represents the deep movement of Maidan that opposes turning Ukraine over to Russia to become absorbed in it. Zelensky is no fool. He realizes that the election call ploy is an attempt by Russia to take control of Ukraine by other means.

To intensify an already intense situation, Trump's treasury secretary reportedly demanded that Zelensky sign a document to turn over 50% of mineral rights to rare minerals and fossil fuels to the US in return for support. Zelensky refused. Art of a great deal? Not so much, Trump Zelensky is pressured to give something he does not have or will not get.....half of his mineral resources royalties. .. Half of Ukraine's rare earths and natural resources are in the area controlled by Russia https://www.independent.co.uk/.../ukraine-minerals-deal...

If Trump hands that over to Russia, what then? Putin walks away with his 6%. Watch Putin try to subvert the other 80% of Ukraine...and call for elections for Ukraine to be absorbed into mother Russia. I'd say Russia got the better part of Trump on this deal.

.The worst deal is the one Trump demanded of Zelensky with the rationale that the value of the rights was to pay back the US for their support of Ukraine, but the US will not see a penny for years. No public or private enterprise would ever invest in mining there if there is a hot war, an uneasy cease fire, or instability and fear that a war would be rekindled. The craven Trump is trying to extort Ukraine as the value of the potential deal is four times the actual amount of aid the US has given so far. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/22/world/europe/ukraine-trump-minerals.html

Trump is attempting to belittle Zelensky, and calling him a dictator is either fooling himself and his MAGA base. The Ukrainian nationalist movement to stay out of Russia's clutches has deep roots in a populist movement. How short our memories are. Beginning in 2013, with the Maidan revolution, Ukraine's democracy movement began. It won with violent street demonstrations of citizens, demanding joining the West and the EU, and it resulted in the Putin loyal president fleeing to Russia. For the rest of how this has played out and why, and when, much has been written, but take a look at the one in Wikipedia if all else fails. Search the Revolution of Dignity.

A refresher course in recent history. The Maidan movement is not an invention of Pres. Volodomyr. Zelensky, former TV star and media executive..He was their 6th president, elected in free and fair elections in 2019. winning the election because he was not involved in partisan bickering and promised to end corruption. In 2022, the infamous column of Russian invaders attempted to take over Ukraine by capturing the capital, Kyiv. Their subversion and influence efforts to stop Ukraine's attempt to join Western Europe had failed. Their military attack failed because the population led by Zelensky themselves rose up with another version of guerilla warfare, sabotaging the bogged-down Russian forces and supplies. Once again, this reflected popular support for democracy and closer ties with the West, including NATO membership. Zelensky rose to the moment, using his communication and executive skills to become an effective wartime leader, sometimes even compared to Churchill.

1994, in the Budapest memorandum between Russia, the US and the UK. Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons in return for a pledge to Russia that the USA and the UK would never invade Ukraine. Ukraine, at that time, could not imagine the threat would come from Russia. If Ukraine still had nuclear weapons...would Russia have invaded in 2022?

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VideoThe Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances is a diplomatic memorandum signed in December 1994 by Ukraine, Russia, the United States, and the United Kingdom. It aimed to provide security assurances to Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan in exchange for their entry into the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, committing the signatories to abstain from military and economic coercion against these three nations. 

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Let's get real on Ukraine peace talks.. Putin is just waiting for Trump's reelection to win update 10 16 23

Update: 10/16/23

Putin suffered another setback as Poland votes against right wing incumbents who had attempted to reduce support of Ukraine and connections with the EU .  https://apnews.com/article/poland-election-vote-720f7b81838c33ccb2865fb3bc6e0414

From my Facebook post this morning: An excellent backgrounder and a realistic look at the status of the war now. Just expect the World War I style of trench warfare will continue for another year unless by some unforeseen Ukrainian military breakthrough as Putin waits for Trump to hand him a victory. .NPR analysis raises the question if it should be time for Ukraine to ask for a cease-fire, but that was clearly put to rest by Zelensky's UN speech on September 19, 2023. He was defiant, and the peace plan he is putting forth calling for Russian withdrawal will probably go nowhere as long as Trump's reelection in 2024 is possible.. Why should Putin negotiate in good faith now when all he has to do is wait until November 2024, and the election of Trump and his MAGA GOP that oppose any future aid to Ukraine and Trump promises would end the war in a matter of minutes. Trump will just do the job for Putin by leaving Ukraine's territorial integrity flapping and tattered in the breeze with no option but to capitulate to Russia.

NPR.ORG

In Ukraine, the focus is the fighting, but are negotiations possible?

Ukraine's military offensive is making only limited progress. This is contributing to a debate on whether the U.S. needs to send even more powerful arms, or try to lay the groundwork for peace talks.