Did the West's weak response to Russia's aggression in Georgia and Crimea greenlight Putin in Ukraine? In retrospect, the West's failure to object strongly enough to Putin's advancement and war in Georgia and his takeover of Crimea sent the message that his takeover of Ukraine would be met with the same tolerable slap on the hands. This defacto appeasement by weak response did not prevent Putin's invasion of Ukraine but only greenlighted him. It contributed to Putin's misconception and an epic miscalculation that the West would not respond to Russia's invasion of Ukraine with a NATO in such disarray. Rattle a threat of nuclear war would be all that was needed to keep the west at bay. Putin had good reason to think that since Donald Trump had done little to object to Russia's grab of Crimea and the 8 years of fighting in the Donbas region of Ukraine other than a slap on the hand of sanctions on oligarch friends of Putin, supplying anti-tank weapons, and retraining of Ukraine's army. Trump had done what he could to weaken NATO, threatening to end America's support or honor the mutual defense purpose of the alliance.
Trump attempted to make the case now as he kicked off the 2024 campaign that he alone could end the war in Ukraine that would prevent World War III. Donald Trump speaking before CPAC said he knows how to end the Ukraine war and "prevent world war III" because only he "can talk with Putin". He could end the war in one day even before he was sworn in, claimed. If it is appeasing Russia he has in mind, we have seen that scene before both in recent years and 85 years ago. There are those, fortunately still a minority in Congress, who agree with Trump. They are fools and history ignoramuses.
If we have learned nothing from history, it is that appeasement does not stop a war when the aggressor has made his intentions obvious, and public, and uses it to aggrandize his own power base. That was true of Hitler in 1938, and it is true of Putin in 2023. Appeaser is a toxic word to pin on politicians to all but the naive and uneducated who follow them. It is time we do some educating about how that has played out in both the past five years and 85 years ago.
Would Trump have his Chamberlain moment if he got his second term? "Anschluss" and "peace in our time" after Chamberlain's negotiations with Hitler that gave him what he wanted, " appeasement", "America First", and "Fortress America" are words that also come from the year of 1938 leading up to World War II. Presidential elections in 2024 could be our 1938 moment. America First is also a political force in 2023. Appeasement is not yet in wide use in 2023, but it does describe Trump's policies toward Russia. Anschluss refers to Germany and Austria becoming one under Hitler, and Putin does not consider Ukraine an independent country, but part of Russia. The term Fortress America does not yet apply to isolationists, but should, because of the fallacy that America is not interconnected with the rest of the world and we, stupidly, can protect ourselves without the help of allies if we are armed enough because there are oceans on both sides of our continent. The mentality exists in 2023, but the term went out of fashion with Pearl Harbor.
At this point, it appears that Trump will still win in the primaries and will be the GOP candidate in 2024. Looking at Trump's relations with Russia in his first term, we know what he has in mind if he ever got into the oval office again. Sure, he knows how to end the war in Ukraine. The problem is, if his past predicts his future action, it would put wind in Putin's sails to continue his Anschluss of Ukraine and return of the rest of eastern Europe into satellites again by subversion or invasion.
Trump's actions in his first term directly led to Putin's invasion of Ukraine and Putin's miscalculation. While prior administrations also looked the other way as Putin began to use force to grab his neighbors, Trump not only looked the other way at Putin's success in grabbing lands, he cleared the path by subverting NATO's power to block him. He also had a bromance with Putin, admiring his leadership style and trusting Putin's national security folks over his own in an infamous NATO meeting in Helsinki. No wonder Putin miscalculated. He counted on Trump having a second term and Biden having lost a step in old age, so it is better to strike while he still could. He was wrong in one of the most epic miscalculations so far in this century. To think Trump ends the Ukraine conflict in minutes as he boasted at the early March CPAC convention is easy to predict based on his past actions. Speculation is well-founded that he would just hand over to Russia the eastern third of Ukraine and then stand by as Russia continues the march into the leftovers as the west stopped arming Ukraine, any treaty promises notwithstanding. That Trump would even honor NATO'S mutual defense clause is doubtful since he already tried to declare it dead once before, leading to Putin's continued march into the Baltics and Poland for starters, in spite of their NATO membership. It would only take Trump a five-minute phone call to Putin to start the appeasement ball rolling. Trump could crow "peace in our time" after that fateful phone call to Putin, but peace would be short-lived as experience with Putin has already demonstrated and advocated publicly. . His ambitions lie further than Ukraine but to the nine countries bordering Russia. Ukraine was just the low-hanging fruit, he thought. That Trump could be pinned down to say just how he would end the Ukraine war is a worthy, if futile, campaign attack by opponents, but his silence could also be damning and verification of his appeasement intent.
To say that appeasement would end Putin's stated goal to reassemble the old USSR's empire or lessen the chances of World War III is at best nuts. Appeasement did not stop Hitler from seeking " lebensraum", nor would it stop Putin who has staked his continued dictatorship of Russia on hyper-nationalist appeal to a reincarnation of the USSR'S former glory days that is a rallying cry that is quite popular with the Russian masses. Putin's polls have never been higher. It would also give a green light for President Xi to grab Taiwan and likewise extend the Chinese empire to southeast Asia and beyond.
This segment on America First and isolationism What is wrong about America First and isolationism. It depends. has been moved to its own separate blog posting: 3/7/23. This subject is a big one. It is not simple as sloganeering would make you think. So what's wrong with "America first" and isolationism?. It depends if we are talking about national defense or economic interests. Trump himself sneers at those who support strong military alliances, like NATO, as globalists. When it comes to national defense and security, isolationist policies shoot us in our own feet by making America first America alone, with defense all by ourselves. National security interests are often entangled in trade and economic concerns, especially when China is involved. That takes a balancing act, targeted tradeoffs, in the extent of reliance on sensitive imports. For more, go to the 3/7/blog posting.
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Why should "appeasement" be a dirty word. If Trump followers have forgotten history or slept through that chapter in school. here is a refresher course in less than a one-minute read.: In March 1938 Hitler completed joining Austria with Germany, Next on Hitler's list was Czechlovakia's Sudentenland and a few other smaller areas Chamberlain declared "peace in our time" as he made the deal with Hitler (he failed to read Mein Kampf) re: Czechoslovakia, September 1938. Within a year, Hitler had completed his takeover or placed Nazi Hungarians in charge of all of Czechoslovakia and marched into Poland. World War II had begun. In June 1940, the Germans took over France. The German blitz bombing of England began in September 1940, two years after the declaration of "the peace in our time". In June 1941, Germany began its invasion of Russia, betraying a pact with Stalin. December 7, 1941, was Pearl Harbor, as imperial Japan also sensed our military weakness and devotion to isolationism to hold onto our Pacific dominance. Its timeline to build an empire began in 1931 and included a treaty with Hitler and Italy in 1940.
Those who think Putin who has declared his intent to reassemble Russian influence in the USSR years over eastern Europe or that Chi in China is calculating US resolve to protect Taiwan from their publicly stated eventual goal are kidding themselves. Neither has made it a secret of their intent.
Vladimir Putin’s Russia: Trying to Rebuild the Soviet Era? (thecollector.com)
Milley: China Wants Capability to Take Taiwan by 2027, Sees No Near-term Intent to Invade - USNI News
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-44852812 Trump in Helsinki, 2018
Japan Builds An Empire | Timetoast timelines
Tripartite Pact | Definition, History, Significance, & Facts | Britannica
Donald Trump claims he would end Ukraine war ‘in one day’ - YouTube
America First Political Action Conference - Wikipedia
https://www.newsweek.com/pro-russia-power-grab-georgia-thwarted-massive-street-protests-1787791?utm_source=push_notification&utm_source=pushnami&utm_medium=Push_Notifications&utm_campaign=fullauto&utm=1678961580051
Senate Republicans distance themselves from DeSantis’s Ukraine stance | The Hill
