Update: 2 24 2025: Trump's negotiating strategy is the art of the no deal. Not only did he give away NATO and 20% of Ukraine's territory in advance of beginning negotiations with Russia, he also tried to extort from Ukraine their natural resources that had a value of 4 times what the US has already contributed to Ukraine. In return, what does Ukraine get: no security guarantees, loss of 20% of its territory, and no way to stop further Russian aggression without outside help. Ukraine just said thanks, but no thanks.
Trump's error is assuming Ukraine has no other alternatives, so he had them over the barrel. With the elections in Germany resulting in a coalition of a centrist government and a coalition of the left and right of center, the path is cleared for Europe to give security guarantees and defend Ukraine's sovereignty independent of the US. France has already done so.
If Trump persists, he will be left with no deal, no peace in our times, and the fall out of disgust of his alliance with Russia, even the failure of capitulation and to
appeasement, and the end of 70 years of transatlantic alliance.
The US is no longer the leader of the free world but has half the power that it had when it was allied with Europe in December. New German chancellor Friedrich Merz has sworn to get independence from the US as quickly as German supporters of Ukraine rally at the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin.
Does Europe have any bargaining chips with Russia? Not yet on the table, Europe holds $330 billion in frozen Russian assets, which are kept for rebuilding Ukraine. While Europe is reluctant to use such frozen assets of another nation's sovereign fund, it could be a bargaining chip as part of a guarantee of Ukraine's security. If released, the money could be used for Ukraine's purchase of weapons on the open market. That could be appealing to Germany, which is already a major manufacturer of weapons for Ukraine and would cut out US manufacturers that are benefitting now.
Continuing with the original post.
Trump's new, informal alliance with Putin's Russia is a fool's gamble. The implications are profound. Trump has green-lighted Russian aggression, indicating that he would not honor the mutual defense purpose of NATO to come to the defense of Poland and the Baltics. At this point, Trump has virtually killed off NATO by refusing to honor its 75-year-old purpose of stopping Soviet/Russian expansion by agreeing if one nation were attacked, all treaty members would respond militarily. Trump also indicated that he would withdraw US troops from Europe. The European countries now realize they are on their own to stop the Russian goal of reassembling the imperial Russia of the past, Putin's dream. To think that Europe would just let Russia finish its conquest of Ukraine and march on to Poland and the Baltics would be peaceful is a non-starter. To think the US people will tolerate that and not send in our troops eventually is a fool's gamble.
Trump may look like a hero to his loyal MAGA base. He is not looking like a hero to even the usually loyal New York Post, who called his policies and pressures on Ukraine "despicable," or to powerful senators from red states who called Putin a war criminal who should be in jail. GOP senators are now revolting against Trump on this issue: https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/20/politics/video/gop-senator-tillis-trump-putin-cancer-speech-senate-floor-digvid Sen. Thom Tillis made a fiery speech in the Senate.
Donald Trump's Favorite Newspaper Calls His Ukraine Proposal 'Despicable' - Newsweek
Trump is attempting to belittle Zelensky, and calling him a dictator is either fooling himself and his MAGA base. The Ukrainian nationalist movement to stay out of Russia's clutches has deep roots in a populist movement. How short our memories are. Beginning in 2013, with the Maidan revolution, Ukraine's democracy movement began. It won with violent street demonstrations of citizens, demanding joining the West and the EU, and it resulted in the Putin loyal president fleeing to Russia. For the rest of how this has played out and why, and when, much has been written, but take a look at the one in Wikipedia if all else fails. Search the Revolution of Dignity.
Two GOP senators rail against Putin despite Trump’s rosy assessment of Russian leader | CNN Politics
Trump will go down in history as the president who lost Ukraine if he persists. Capitulation and appeasement are not good looks for the president who thinks he is a king..
Still, to Russia, America now looks like a weakling to our adversaries, unwilling to defend America's West European friends, with its president ripe for manipulation, flattery, and control by Putin. Trump is acting like one who aspires to be a "strong leader " like Putin. Putin is his peer group and the ideal of how he would like to govern..as he has openly opined. The chances are that it will backfire on him and on America's national security interests. Trump's alliance with Russia will reverberate as a greeenlight rekindling of the Balkan wars as the world is distracted with armed conflict in the rest of Europe, and the Chinese takeover of Taiwan, for starters, who sees America as too weak and unwilling to put up a fight.
Why does Trump have it in for Ukraine? Why is Trump risking national security interests and ticking off Europe? It seems irrational. My theory:
It's personal with Trump. Trump's attempt to blackmail Zelesnsky to find dirt on the Biden family and son Hunter's business dealings in Ukraine resulted in the impeachment of Trump.
Trump's animosity toward Zelensky is now playing out as Trump has now allied himself with Russia, which has resulted in classic Trump hurling insults on Twitter and social media and taking the Kremlin line that "Zelensky is a dictator. Absurdly, Trump parroted back the Russia line that Zelensky started the war, not Russia. Zelenksy should have agreed to Russian demands to stop aligning himself with the West and NATO and become a part of Mother Russia is what it implies. Martial law is still in effect. The war is still raging in 20% of Ukraine.. To say Zelensky is a dictator because he has not held an election since Russia invaded is a ploy, a bully bluster, and a talking point that only makes the bad blood worse. Zelensky represents the deep movement of Maidan that opposes turning Ukraine over to Russia to become absorbed in it. Zelensky is no fool. He realizes that the election call ploy is an attempt by Russia to take control of Ukraine by other means.
To intensify an already intense situation, Trump's treasury secretary reportedly demanded that Zelensky sign a document to turn over 50% of mineral rights to rare minerals and fossil fuels to the US in return for support. Zelensky refused. Art of a great deal? Not so much, Trump Zelensky is pressured to give something he does not have or will not get.....half of his mineral resources royalties. .. Half of Ukraine's rare earths and natural resources are in the area controlled by Russia https://www.independent.co.uk/.../ukraine-minerals-deal...
If Trump hands that over to Russia, what then? Putin walks away with his 6%. Watch Putin try to subvert the other 80% of Ukraine...and call for elections for Ukraine to be absorbed into mother Russia. I'd say Russia got the better part of Trump on this deal.
.The worst deal is the one Trump demanded of Zelensky with the rationale that the value of the rights was to pay back the US for their support of Ukraine, but the US will not see a penny for years. No public or private enterprise would ever invest in mining there if there is a hot war, an uneasy cease fire, or instability and fear that a war would be rekindled. The craven Trump is trying to extort Ukraine as the value of the potential deal is four times the actual amount of aid the US has given so far. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/22/world/europe/ukraine-trump-minerals.html
Trump is attempting to belittle Zelensky, and calling him a dictator is either fooling himself and his MAGA base. The Ukrainian nationalist movement to stay out of Russia's clutches has deep roots in a populist movement. How short our memories are. Beginning in 2013, with the Maidan revolution, Ukraine's democracy movement began. It won with violent street demonstrations of citizens, demanding joining the West and the EU, and it resulted in the Putin loyal president fleeing to Russia. For the rest of how this has played out and why, and when, much has been written, but take a look at the one in Wikipedia if all else fails. Search the Revolution of Dignity.
A refresher course in recent history. The Maidan movement is not an invention of Pres. Volodomyr. Zelensky, former TV star and media executive..He was their 6th president, elected in free and fair elections in 2019. winning the election because he was not involved in partisan bickering and promised to end corruption. In 2022, the infamous column of Russian invaders attempted to take over Ukraine by capturing the capital, Kyiv. Their subversion and influence efforts to stop Ukraine's attempt to join Western Europe had failed. Their military attack failed because the population led by Zelensky themselves rose up with another version of guerilla warfare, sabotaging the bogged-down Russian forces and supplies. Once again, this reflected popular support for democracy and closer ties with the West, including NATO membership. Zelensky rose to the moment, using his communication and executive skills to become an effective wartime leader, sometimes even compared to Churchill.
1994, in the Budapest memorandum between Russia, the US and the UK. Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons in return for a pledge to Russia that the USA and the UK would never invade Ukraine. Ukraine, at that time, could not imagine the threat would come from Russia. If Ukraine still had nuclear weapons...would Russia have invaded in 2022?
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