How energy independence is key to Europe's surviving Russian land grabs

A very important shift in German policy toward natural gas. Update: 5/25/2025

Germany Recalibrates Climate Policy, Backs Gas Power Shift 

We should be keeping sacred in the Ukraine cease-fire negotiations that Russia never gets a larger foothold in Europe.  Energy independence is key to Europe's surviving Russian land grabs. At the beginning of the Ukraine conflict in 2014, when Russia forcefully annexed Crimea and Russia's paramilitary green-clad troops invaded the Ukraine Donbass region, Europe dragged its feet in coming to the aid of Ukraine's sovereignty because it relied on Russian pipelines of oil and natural gas to fuel its economies. It was cheap and readily available through prior years of pipeline building.  Then came the Ukraine/Russian conflict in 2014, seven years before the actual Russian full-scale military invasion of Ukraine. In the meantime, Western Europe struggled to wean itself off Russian oil and gas, with significant results, but it still depends on 18% of natural gas from Russia.  Europe knows well that he who supplies the energy and fuels calls the tune to which they must dance. 

I wrote this opinion piece that was published in the Sky Hi News soon after Russia annexed Crimea, which is as true today as it was in 2014, though times have changed, and Russian aggression to annex Ukraine has become a hot war.  The theory and the fears remain the same.

Sunday, March 9, 2014

Ukraine crisis puts energy independence on the front burner

The Ukraine crisis points to the importance of energy independence.  Much of the world’s strife can be attributed to the distribution of natural resources.  The givers control; the receivers are at their mercy, chained to them by supply line tethers.

 Oil has always driven much if not all  of US military and foreign policy. US’s entanglement in the middle east; its devastating invasion of Iraq; the first Gulf War  are just a few examples.  We are already approaching energy independence in this country with our ability to tap onto our vast natural gas reserves and our increase in oil production.  The Ukraine crisis points to the need for Europe to get itself independent of imports from Russia.

Columnist Thomas Friedman, writing in  the New York Times March 4, opined  Russian  Pres. Vadimir Putin  “ prefers to turn Russia into a mafia-run petro-state…all the better to steal from” and contends we should hit him where he hurts, forcing down energy prices with our own exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) ,  crashing the Russian economy which is pumped up  now on oil revenues..Undermining Putin’s petro revenues is better than going to war.

 The threat of Russia shutting off their energy supply is a powerful reason for allies like Germany  that gets 30% of its gas from Russia and other  European friends in a similar pickle  to resist joining us fully  in modifying Russia’s behavior. . Russia controls their shutoff valves .

Russian pipelines supply petro resources from one end of Western Europe to the Balkans (including as far south as Croatia). Their pipelines  crisscross the Ukraine, making control of it strategic to both Russia and Western Europe.

A couple of years ago I was traveling through Romania, a former Soviet satellite, and now a member of NATO and the EU.  Rusting  oil storage tanks and refineries dotted the landscape to remind us of its former importance as an oil producer.  However, we saw  a huge pipeline propped up above ground. I asked our guide where the oil was coming from now.  He said Russia. Why, I asked? Is the oil field dried up? No, he said, it is cheaper to get it from Russia than to drill it ourselves. Romania and the rest of Europe are addicted to Russian energy ..

Supplying western Europe with another source of natural gas from the US  is not a short term solution and it is controversial. Friedman contends just  to threaten and begin that process would have an  effect on Putin’s calculations immediately.

 To make good on the threat, we  need to change our laws that now  limit the amount of natural gas exports.  Terminals and certain processes  need to be built to handle LNG exports. Government approval needs to be streamlined .  Rep. Cory Gardner (R-CO)) and Sen. Mark Udall (D-CO)support reforming the process; other senators oppose(.http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-07)

 Some fear our energy costs would rise.. . Exporting oil  and natural gas means more fracking and the Keystone pipeline completion. Both are  fought by environmentalists. Friedman suggests  imposing  carbon taxes and raising our own gas tax  would  force world petro prices down.  My thought:  This trade off could  encourage alternative energy development   in the longer run. If anything, the Ukraine crisis will serve to put this public policy debate on the front burner.

A version of this blog ran as a column in the Sky Hi Daily News...www.skyhidailynews.com...March 28, 2014

From Google AI 3/30/2025

• The EU's dependence on Russian gas has decreased substantially since the war in Ukraine, with imports dropping from 45% of EU gas imports in 2021 to 18% in 2024. 
• Remaining Reliance:

  Despite the decrease, Russia still supplies 18% of the EU's natural gas imports. 
• Key Markets:

  Key markets for Russian LNG remain France, Belgium, and Spain, accounting for 85% of Russian LNG imports, with smaller amounts flowing into the Netherlands and Greece. 
• Pipeline Gas:

  In February 2025, the EU received 56 mcm/day of Russian gas via the TurkStream pipeline, a 11% monthly increase. 
• EU Imports:

  The EU's imports from Russia consisted of pipeline gas (EUR 9.6 bn), LNG (EUR 7 bn) and crude oil via pipeline (EUR 4 bn). 

• EU imports of Russian fossil fuels in third year of invasion surpass ...

  Feb 24, 2025 — CREA's analysis finds that tighter sanctions can slash Kremlin revenues by more than EUR 50 billion annually (20%). Si...

  

  Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air
• Europe Somehow Still Depends on Russia's Energy

  Jan 3, 2025 — Russian gas imports are Europe's most glaring failure, with Russia still making up 18 percent of all EU natural gas imp...

  

  Foreign Policy

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Featured snippet from the webOil products: Turkey, the largest buyer, has purchased 25% of Russia's oil product exports, followed by China (11%), and Brazil (11%). LNG: The EU was the largest buyer, purchasing 49% of Russia's LNG exports, followed by China (22%), and Japan (18%).Feb 11, 202

Russia's Ukraine policy's unintended consequence: Europe's energy independence

Whatever the outcome, the Crimea  and Ukraine crises have made western Europe painfully  aware that they had become so dependent on Russian gas and oil , they were unable to react forcefully. Russia had become the master of their foreign policy souls. A western European backlash, to seek more energy independence, would  mean unintended long term  consequences  for Russia.

Our family has been dismayed at the return of  tense relations with Russia. Post Communism so many of our east European friends have enjoyed the warming of relations, the freedom to immigrate or travel, and a much improved standard of living.  However, we also have been close hand observers of  Europe’s recent and ever increasing dependence on Russian gas and oil. One third of Western Europe’s  energy comes from Russia and other countries once in the Soviet sphere of influence depend 100% on Russian oil and gas.

  Much of our family is related by marriage and blood to Austrians and Croatians and over the past 40 years we have made nearly annual trips to that part of the world.  We have observed  Croatia’s  increasing dependence  on Russian energy.  In Croatia, my sister in law’s apartment is   heated by its gas. (around 30% of Croatia’s natural gas is Russian).  On their   Dalmatian coast, Russia’s  Gazprom has recently bought  service stations to fuel the tourist trade.

 On a  trip through Romania three years ago, we crossed the  Ploiesti oil fields,  site of  World War II air battles.    Rusting oil refineries and storage tanks dotted the fields and a large pipeline carrying Russian oil   bordered   it.  “ But why?””, I asked our guide,  remembering  Romania was once a famous oil producer. “ It is cheaper to get it from Russia”, he replied.

That viewpoint is changing, however. Romania is 25 to 35% dependent on Gazprom gas, but it has 15 years worth of gas reserves itself, which it will  soon begin tapping . Their energy prices will rise, but they have already planned to take advantage of lower consumption to gain more energy independence.

SETimes  (http://www.setimes.com) shed more light on the dilemma facing  Europe using oil and gas policy  to bridle Russian ambitions.   Boycotting  Russian oil and gas could backfire on them.   Gazprom is the sole provider of their energy for Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Finland, and the Baltic states. Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro and Serbia also are strongly dependent on Russian gas.

 Petro policy can also backfire on the Russians. 53% of Russia’s annual gas export pipelines cross the Ukraine. Control of the Ukraine is critical to them.. But any loss of Western  markets could  seriously damage the Russian economy  fed heavily  by petro income and diminish  Putin’s domestic support..

In June the EU will present a plan for reduction of  energy dependence on Russia, including developing more renewables and  their own shale gas, increase imports of  liquified natural gas from Qatar and the US,  improving pipeline infrastructure within the EU and reviving  eastern European gas fields.    While the plans will take time to realize, just the threat of implementation being formalized now  should give Russia some serious second thoughts as they ponder the  long term unintended consequences of their  recent policies.

A version of this was published in the www.Skyhidailynews.com today...print and on line.

Russia’s unintended Ukrainian fallout | SkyHiDailyNews.com

Russia’s unintended Ukrainian fallout | SkyHiDailyNews.com  My column published April 18, 2014

Note: April 16, 2014;  FiscalTimes thinks that unlike in the past, Europe  this time will actually take action to establish an EU energy policy and that they can call Putin's buff because they have large reserves of gas after a mild winter.  http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2014/04/10/How-Europe-Could-Finally-Call-Putin-s-Bluff

From SETimes April 16

Kremlin threatens gas supplies to Southeast Europe

16/04/2014

Several nations receive Russian gas via Ukraine. In other business news: Albania's credit rating sees improvement and Turkey's military spending surpasses Canada.

The EU says Russia should not politicise its contractual shipments of gas. [AFP]

In a letter to several Southeast European nations, Russia's President Vladimir Putin threatened to shut off gas supplies to Ukraine. The letter, which is intended to increase pressure on Kiev as Kremlin-backed troops stir insurgency in eastern Ukraine, warned of action unless Ukraine starts repaying its debt and unless the EU agrees to joint talks with Russia on the country's economic future. The European Commission responded in a statement and said it expects suppliers to stick to their commitments. The letter was sent to 18 European heads of states that depend on Russian gas transit via Ukraine, includingBulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Romania, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Macedonia, Moldova,Serbia and Turkey.