Looking back at the 2012 presidential elections, and the
shock to many that Mitt Romney lost to Barack Obama, the pivotal events were
not just the debates, but the one figure:
47, and what it represented. The same currents will be at work in 2014 and
Obamacare will play a role.
Enough voters came to
the conclusion from that infamous sound
bite secretly recorded in which Romney disdained 47% to realize that Romney did not care about them.
This perception, coupled with the gender gap, cost him the election.
Pres. Obama drew on his middle class background, a consistent theme since 2008. Some called Pres. Obama’s approach “class
warfare” as he constantly referred to middle class interests in his stump speeches. The 2012 election was
not just a referendum on the Affordable
Care Act, but “ Obamacare” was part of the winning theme: helping the middle class.
Voter perception of
middle class vs well heeled may also determine public support for Obamacare in 2014. Those crying “it is worse” will be those who either see benefits they had counted on not materialize or who had to pay more for insurance. Among those
will be some well heeled who resent they are the ones picking up some of the tab for the newly insured. They see themselves as losers in the Obamacare
law. They may not have realized it, but
pre Obamacare, they and all insured were losers: paying for the health
care of the uninsured anyway. Charity care and unpaid medical bills were costs
hospitals and other providers passed on to those paying insurance premiums to
the tune of at least $1000 per family per year.
The fact is
Obamacare was not created to subsidize
those able to pay for their own health insurance. It was devised to help those who could not
afford to buy insurance and who had been faced with unfair insurance company
practices. Those individuals making under $50 thousand a year and families of
four earning less than $94 thousand a year qualify for subsidies. They are also the ones had once been most likely go bankrupt or face foreclosure because of
unpaid medical bills or who feared lay offs, changing jobs, or being fired
would leave them without employer provided insurance. That is the kind of
middle class relief and security Obamacare provides…always available,
affordable coverage.
What will shape opinion
about Obamacare the most in the coming
year will be the
experience of those who sign up successfully and pass on
their success stories to families and friends.
There are far more of them than those who feel they drew the short
straw. The larger number of winners is the
problem the GOP faces if they base a campaign on dramatizing stories about the fewer losers.
Count on Republicans
running on repealing Obamacare or
substituting it with unworkable
proposals that fail to accomplish
the same goals. By November 2014 over
twenty million consumers will have made
the effort to sign up and succeeded.
When these middle class new customers of affordable health care realize the GOP proposes to take away their
newly acquired benefits , or asks them to change systems again, their howls of protest will not be to the
GOP’s advantage in November 2014.
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