Obama's velvet foreign policy in Syria, Ukraine, and elsewhere

In the wake of the end of the cold war, the rise of radical Islam, and  the Arab Spring, the world and US foreign policy  are still sorting themselves  out.   Voices in the US range from Sen. John McCain’s speak loudly and carry an imaginary big stick to others  who want us to speak loudly and carry a threatening, but small  stick. They criticize Obama’s policy which has become speak softly and carry a  flexible willow switch  wrapped  in diplomatic velvet   that prods and pokes and occasionally stings with economic and drone weaponry.

 The proponents of “loud” need a reality check. Most  US voters  realize  that  bluster can lead to  blunder. After the Iraq invasion and the Afghanistan frustrations, how else could the US public conclude? Wielding big sticks is not popular in a nation weary of war and wanting to turn inward to resolve its own domestic problems . The small stick approach in time  is viewed  by those at whom  it is shaken as  bully  bluster not to be taken seriously.

 President Obama’s    foreign policy has evolved  based on his pledge to end the wars and later shaped  by   experience, while   ignoring charges from the right  that he leads from behind or has weakened US influence.  Besides,  budget deals have not restored the military’s former glory  as both wings of the political parties try to shoehorn their priorities into budgets constrained by fears of bankrupting the country.

After  the Arab Spring, the  uprisings in Egypt and  abortive attempts to establish a western style democracy, Syria and Ukraine are the newest tests of  Obama’s   US foreign  policy.

Military Intervention in Syria risks an outcome  similar to Iraq’s and Afghanistan’s. A diplomatic end  to the deadly civil war will depend upon Russia .  Stepping up aid to  refugees internally and externally is in both Russia’s and US interests since it reduces  pressure  to increase  US intervention  to end a humanitarian disaster, probably explaining Russia’s UN Security Council “yes” vote Saturday. Neither country  wishes to see Syria dominated by militant Islam.  These  common goals could lead to  wider  cooperation.   

Resurrecting cold war emotions on either side is very unhelpful, as much as  US proponents of “loud” promote it  and Russia  views the West as engaged in a power struggle with them.  In spite of that,  the Ukraine resolution contains hope for  beginning  even  better   relations with Russia that could lead to cooperation elsewhere  and will have an impact beyond borders.   Western Europe who brokered the Ukraine compromise and Russia  fear violence  on their doorsteps.     Pres. Obama simply picked up the telephone and called Russia’s President Putin,  peace returned to the square,  Ukraine’s besieged pro Russian president retreated from Kiev to friendlier parts, and the demonstrators took over the national government .  The final solution of how to govern a country split between pro Russian and a pro Western  population is not resolved but  kudos to Obama for getting  the ball rolling in his velvet way.

There are other countries such as Bosnia with significant numbers of their  population  seething in anger at non-responsive,  corrupt, and  ineffective, divided  governments,  who will be watching the  Ukraine situation as a template for a strategy for change.  What happens in the Ukraine will influence how  other  such  conflicts will play out.