Monday, July 3, 2017

Would you buy a used car from Donald Trump? Repeal without replacement, a terrible deal.for the GOP

Trump's  newest deal he does not want you to refuse is to have Congress vote for repeal of Obamacare with a promise to give Congress a year to come to a solution.   This idea is a trust buster. He reversed himself from a prior promise to do both simultaneously. The plan he endorsed resulted in 22 million uninsured, hardly his pledge to replace Obamacare with something better. The GOP has not come up with a replacement in 7 years and 6 months  of trying and this  repeal without replace is  a gift to Democrats.  First, a year for now is the mid terms and it would be the best ammo Democrats could have to defeat vulnerable GOP House candidates. (All House members are up for re-election in 2018).

Delaying the replacement for a year would destroy Obamacare at once  since this guarantees no insurer would participate in the exchanges because insurers have to set prices based upon risk a year in advance and it is even  a program may not even exist after 2018. Either they would pull out or they would raise premium  rates so high, it would make Obamacare financially unsustainable or affordable.   Not coming up with a replacement  during this coming 12 months in a year would mean an end of  insurance   for 32 million who have benefited by the affordability of health insurance Obamacare provided, not just the 22 million who their proposed legislation would leave without insurance in the next ten years.

What the GOP is weighing is that by a repeal without replacement vote now  is  it would protect their core who swore to vote for repeal and protect them from attacks  in their primaries from their right who would consider anything resembling Obamacare too far to the left because it continued the outline of a federal program. Only 30% of the GOP wants repeal without replacement, per a USA today poll.

What it would  also do is give opposition to GOP plans to cut Medicaid and exchange subsidies to grow even more to the current type of House and Senate versions that are polling between support of 10 to 30% and even are upside down among  their own GOP affiliated  voters. Do they really think opposition will cool in the middle of an election year? If the GOP thinks that the sabotage of  Obamacare will be blamed on the Democrats because they think it would  be  a  successful strategy be  to force Democrats to the table out of desperation, the fact is the public is not so stupid. They know that the GOP can fix it if they want and have the power to do so since they control both houses of Congress and the White House. Moderate Democrats have always expressed desire to work with the GOP on a repair fix without a need to sabotage Obamacare as a motivation to get them to the table.  The China Shop rule: The GOP broke it; they own it.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/6/30/15900564/health-bill-politics-midterms

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/06/28/fox-news-poll-27-percent-favor-senate-gop-health-care-plan-as-vote-gets-delayed.html

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/06/28/suffolk-poll-obamacare-trump-senate-health-care-plan/103249346/

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