Why Democrats will struggle to win in the 2018 midterms

Revised 8 26 18  A version of this was published in the Sky Hi News Sept.6, 2017

A recent CNBC analysis concludes that the GOP could still win the midterms in 2018 despite low approval ratings for President Trump. Math and maps are working against the Democrats.

Common wisdom is that in normal mid-term election years, Democrats  always have challenges since they draw strength from young voters  and minorities who tend not to turn out to vote in non-presidential years. Gerrymandering and constitutional provisions  favor rural areas and smaller states,as well. More  Democratic senate  and House seats are in jeopardy than Republican seats.

There is nothing normal about the state of politics in the US. What throws a monkey wrench into the usual suppositions is that a divisive President  Trump is fracturing the Republican party. Trump's single minded intent to appeal to his "base" is part of the cause of the division. He further alienates and chastises members of Congress and threatens them with a primary if they do not support  all of his issues or his leadership style. As this rift deepens, so does the possibility increase that there will be internal fights within the party or that the GOP would break up into two parties: Nationalists and traditional Republicans or their primaries could turn into ideological brawls. The losing faction could sit on their hands in the general election, giving Democrats a chance to win marginal districts.

Another scenario is that a new centrist movement would emerge in time for the 2020 presidential election cycle that would draw from more traditional Republicans and moderate Democrats, leaving the alt-right nationalists as a separate party and the ideological progressives from the Sanders' wing in the remaining Democratic party. Republican Ohio Gov. John Kasich and Democrat Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper floated a trial balloon through a spokesperson that they were contemplating joining together in an independent unity ticket for president. They immediately shot it down, Hickenlooper by Tweet and Kasich on Meet the Press.The two governors had joined together earlier to urge repair of Obamacare instead of the GOP's very unpopular plan to repeal and replace it. Perhaps that bi-partisan, centrist spirit could at least infect Congress.

That rural areas favor Republicans is a given. Both voting history and conservative, cultural identity are natural fits for the GOP. Rural area voters tend to be more anti federal government and against helping minorities with whom many especially in the mid west and west have little personal contact.

In addition, gerrymandering of Congressional districts may be a strategy used by both parties, but  the recent GOP domination  of state and local  officials favors Republicans. Those state and local officials have drawn  Congressional district boundaries to concentrate  Democratic voters in  as few safe districts as possible.  This gerrymandering will not change that reality  any time soon  since the GOP controls  most governors and state legislatures that  determine Congressional boundaries.

Democrats’ message has been one that appeals to inner cities and suburban areas and states  that trend more liberal.    The division between Sanders’ progressives and Clinton voters is  still simmering, confounded  by an inability to arrive at a campaign message that appeals to both factions. The issue that divides the two factions is health care, the ideological differences of  whether to promote a single payer system or repair Obamacare.  If the party is split , it will be hard put to take advantage of a split Republican party.

The actions  Democrats could take is to make sure their  local and state candidates are culturally similar to district voters even though they may deviate from liberal orthodoxy in some issues. The other is to craft messages that makes America a land of opportunity for all, including  rural voters and rust belt ones.  The negative message may depend  on Trump’s failure to deliver promises on job creation, higher wages,  and economic growth policies .Democrats can  make a good case their policies would help  middle class by helping make making family finance  ends meet by fighting for affordable health insurance,  making it easier to repay student loans,  and raising the minimum wage, for example. However, if they too are split into factions, they will be hard put to take advantage of a split Republican party.

http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/poll-key-states-mi/2017/08/20/id/808669/

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/08/gop-could-still-win-midterms-in-2018-despite-low-approval-for-trump.html


https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-congressional-map-is-historically-biased-toward-the-gop/

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/25/politics/kasich-hickenlooper-2020-unity-ticket/index.html

https://www.usnews.com/news/ken-walshs-washington/articles/2017-01-18/republicans-take-over-washington-in-full-control-of-the-country

http://www.cnn.com/2017/06/19/politics/supreme-court-partisan-gerrymandering/index.html

http://fciruli.blogspot.com/2017/08/the-western-battleground.html

http://www.thedailybeast.com/will-gop-pay-a-price-for-trying-to-take-health-care-benefits-from-voters

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/25/politics/trump-corker-flake/index.html

http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/347633-poll-trumps-approval-steady-following-charlottesville-response

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2017/08/trump-holds-steady-after-charlottesville-supporters-think-whites-christians-face-discrimination.html

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2482

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/09/08/the-top-15-possible-2020-democratic-nominees-ranked/

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/democrats-continue-line-behind-bernie-sanders-health-care-232205359--abc-news-topstories.html