It's the economy,. but not what you think: updated October 29, 2020.

Updated October 29, 2020

Even if GDP growth is 30 percent at an annual rate in the third quarter, output will still be more than 4 percent below its level at the end of 2019, which is more than the farthest the economy ever was from its prior peak in the Great Recession.https://www.brookings.edu/…/dont-let-flashy-3rd-quarter-gd…/

The GDP in the second quarter dropped 33% so the third quarter rose back to the same.  That is why the third quarter looks so outstanding. As the third wave of COVID is hitting us, we can expect a grim 4th quarter. No stimulus; more COVID.    

The market dropped 900 points yesterday on this news: as predicted by scientists, the third wave of COVD has hit, not only in the US but in Europe, too. In addition, the Senate adjourned without passing the second stimulus bill and the first stimulus bill effect has worn off. Twenty GOP Senators not up for re-election was the reason the second stimulus bill went down the toilet.

In this blog post, Jay Shambaugh shows evidence that despite GDP growth, the economy is actually slowing down and presents a strong case for concern.

BROOKINGS.EDU

Don’t let flashy 3rd quarter GDP growth fool you, the economy is still in a big hole

In this blog post, Jay Shambaugh shows evidence that despite GDP growth, the economy is actually slowing down and presents a strong case for concern.

Updated October 28, 2020

https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/10/business/us-economy-trump-vs-other-presidents/

In short, Trump was doing well with the economy until COVID. On the other hand, W Bush was doing well with the economy until the fall of 2008. The question with voters is should Trump take the blame and who would do a better job of taking us out of the economic mess: who has the better plan. The latter question has been answered by Moody's and Goldman Sachs...Biden. The first question is more complicated and the answer is probably more partisan than scientific,, but Trump's lies that we are turning the corner is a hard one to swallow in the exact states he needs for re-election...as COVID spikes in the midwest. The corner that is turned leads us into a dark and scary alley.

Updated October 21, 2020  

Recent polls taken in September and October show that Joe Biden and Donald Trump are tied in who would better manage the economy. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/519851-trump-biden-tied-when-it-comes-to-economy-poll That is a blow to Trump's main selling point: the great economy.  That claim has worn thin and Biden has proposed measures that have gotten traction and praise for its effectiveness in pulling us out of the COVID economy.  What the public is beginning to realize that COVID and the economy are related and that the economy will not come back until COVID is beaten. The problem that is arising is that COVID is surging everywhere, and the US has failed to get it under control...In fact, Trump lies daily about the surge..."it is turning the corner" which flies in the face of local news reports by states...or that he lied about its danger since February...or that his unmasked, undistanced rallies leave a trial of COVID infection surges and results. 

COVID may go away in 2021. What then? I just had a local businessman spread an article on Facebook that showed he would pay lower taxes under Trump than under Biden. Therefore, everything else Trump does is to be forgiven, racism lies, and more.....first things first. Perhaps that businessman is not seeing the forest for the trees. ...that the economy has always done better with Democrats...and even better than this one. Goldman Sachs, the Wall Street firm, believes that a blue wave would help the economy recover more quickly because of the kinds of stimulus coupled with low-interest Joe Biden is proposing.https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/06/business/economy-election-blue-wave-goldman-sachs/index.html  The greatest myth ever is that Republican administrations are better for the economy than Democrats. .Even with the tax breaks to the rich and a booming street, the three to four percent growth of the economy promised by Trump never happened with the exception of one three percent quarter and has otherwise hovered around 2.2 percent as it did before Trump's election.  The economy was not that great under Trump. Except for employment under Trump unemployment did drop to  3.5 percent and is now hovering at near Great Recession levels. Millions are still unemployed. The tidal wave of foreclosures and evictions will start hitting us soon.  Many small businesses cratered that many once worked. There are not many tricks left to stimulate the economy, with interest rates near the bottom and tax breaks for the rich not paid for by economic growth even before COVID.   As economist Larry Summers, a former U.S. Treasury Secretary and National Economic Council director, noted,  " ... the data are remarkably clear that, on average, the stock markets, on average, corporate profits, do better during Democratic administrations than they do during Republican administrations.... because the foundation of our economy is the middle class, ..and when you have policies that rely on a trickle-down theory, it's not even best for those who have bought into the implementation of those policies,"

If the middle class still hopes tax breaks for the rich will somehow trickle down to them, even after the depression years of COVID,   historically high unemployment levels and the end of stimulus checks, what will remain is the debt burden of college education, foreclosures galore, unaffordable rents, and payscales that do not support a family, There will no more Obamacare to cover medical expenses if Trump lawyers win in the Supreme Court. If anyone thinks that promises to provide an even better health care insurance program will suddenly materialize after four years of promises and it will be both affordable and have a funding source to keep coverage of pre-existing conditions, I've got a highrise I can sell them in Moscow, too. After the historic defeat of the GOP, the loss of the House in the 2018 midterms on that issue, they still did not come up with a replacement to Obamacare. Or if anyone thinks that social security and medicare should be privatized, so vested private self- interests could make a buck or be dependent on the casino of Wall Street, they should forget the words" security" and "social", in its title.,

 Suburbanites who fled in droves from Trump in the 2018 midterms just want peace and the ability to deal with their everyday lives, especially affordable health care, and coverage of pre-existing conditions,  debt freer college education for their kids, worries about gun violence by unhinged individuals in their shopping centers and their children's classrooms, earning enough to pay the mortgage, putting food on the table, and control over their own health choices. Unlike the Democrats,  these issues are addressed by neither the GOP nor Donald Trump. Suburban women' s; problems existing before COVD  remain after the tax breaks to the rich and stimulus checks are gone. Instead, he calls these programs offered by Democrats as "radical socialism" to be feared. Radical socialism? You and I have known Joe Biden for years and you know he is not, nor ever has he been,  a socialist.  The growing list of endorsements by what used to be ideological GOP conservative leaders attest to Biden's steadiness and their preference for whatever he offers in a second term over what they see as four more years of Trump.    Suburban women are disgusted by the President's immoral behavior, constant lying, self-absorbed character,  cruelty to immigrant children he uses as a  political weapon, and his lack of caring about the health and safety of grandparents and children during the pandemic while he was giving priority to his economic agenda. Instead, Trump's main pitch for re-election is to make everyone fear Black Lives Matter so we forget the rest. 

Seniors need a special heads up. .Joe Biden, August 31 speech, said that the social security fund would be depleted by 2023. That is because social security funding depends on payroll tax which has been suspended.as part of the COVID stimulus. His plan to save social security has received praise. "Joe Biden’s plans for Social Security and Supplemental Security Income would lift 1.4 million Americans out of poverty in its first year, a new analysis found, along with guaranteeing the payout of full benefits for another five years. 

The former vice president’s plan hinges on imposing the 6.2% Social Security tax on earnings above $400,000. Employees and their employers are taxed on earnings up to $137,000 under current guidelines. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/519851-trump-biden-tied-when-it-comes-to-economy-poll

Trump and the GOP for years have wanted to privatize it.. Paying for it would be by the casino of Wall Street. If Trump is re=elected and the Senate is still in GOP hands.and that the legislative fight will be epic. Trump cannot enact that big of change by executive order, but like so many issues like he tries to move funds around to legislate changes in legislatively approved uses.. He has often been rebuffed by the Supreme Court, but as he stuffs the Court with conservatives, and will complete his control of the Court in a second term if the GOP remains red..

The farce of trickle down: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tax-cuts-rich-50-years-no-trickle-down/?fbclid=IwAR0Cr5i7ZJLPjBYDHCn4oeXBNMXCO-EZj_gJwxgHvxlbqlvD21Z-9hADhBQ