The midterms in November 2022, could decide whether the Democratic party increases its margins in Congress or the GOP becomes more obstructionist than it is now as it seizes control of the House. The margins are so razor-thin, a few changes could swing it one way or another. Here are some of my words of political wisdom after 75 years of participation, academic and hands-on, and observation on and in the school of political hard knocks.
. Gerrymandering at the local and state levels can predetermine much of the outcome since independents and the less frequent voters usually vote in smaller numbers in non-presidential election years, given hard-line party loyalists an advantage. This makes gerrymandering of extreme one-party dominated legislative districts an even more important factor in determining the House balance. This presents a particularly greater challenge to Democrats in maintaining control of the House. The GOP may also have laid a trap for themselves with candidates and incumbents going on record with unpopular platforms and political allegiances..
The best weapon Democrats have is their backing and advocating very popular public policy issues that help improve the lives of the bulk of Americans. GOP leaders in Congress have taken the political calculation that "just saying no" to any of the Biden-supported policies will help them win in November. They have punished any collaborators with the Democrats with threats to challenge them in primaries and in removing them from power in their own House...losing their choice committee assignments. This will also ensure that the most extreme Trump loyalists will be winners in their primaries who are less electable in a head-to-head matchup with Democrats in their general elections. Democrats can paint them as extremists or Trump fanatics in districts where Trump is more unpopular than the GOP in general. On record are GOP incumbents who voted against 2020 election certification or opposed the bi-partisan commission to investigate January 6 riots. This could be a litmus test of how extremely Trumpist such and such a candidate is.
This GOP "just say no" strategy gives Democrats an opportunity in swing districts to follow the old political truism that all elections are local. Just a general national boilerplate ad on behalf of a legislative district candidate misses an opportunity. Just campaigning on a platform that the GOP is against democracy is a talking point, but voters tend to be more interested in what affects their lives now, not in political science. The exception is those who fear socialism the word without nuances or definition. . Yet many of those professing that fear also support individual Biden social assistance details of his human infrastructure bill contents. If the past four years of Trump demonstrated, even GOP loyalists cared little about debt and deficits. Raising taxes on the rich polls well, but it is a nonstarter if it raises taxes on the rest of us. One of the key polling indicators projecting a winner is "does my legislator care about me". Those who constitute cores of either party are not usually motivated to vote by public policy issues alone as the GOP has realized and so ably exploited in what we are calling the cultural wars. For the hard-core-based voters, issues become excuses and markers of cult and culture identity. The focus of issue-based advertising and strategy is better suited to swing districts
Democratic party advertising and campaign strategy attacking GOP opponents with carefully targeted messages of local interests could be very effective... For example," your GOP incumbent (or the platform of a challenger to an incumbent) voted, or would have voted against that dangerous bridge repair you hoped for", or that the GOP candidate "voted against relief in child care costs" or other popular proposals for that district. This strategy would be especially effective against incumbents whose votes on issues are a matter of official and public record. In states that have just made it extra hard to vote because of their suppression legislation, ads could be run to remind even those who do not identify with racial minorities that their local state representative" voted to make it more inconvenient for you to vote." (Recent polls show voters prefer access to voting over fraud concerns) This locally targeted approach could be used up and down the ballot targeted for specific Congressional districts and local state legislative races. Careful targeting of a few issues of particular concern to voters in a district could also be just as effective as a long laundry list of travesties, depending on the district. Linking issues with district demographics or polling could help with targeting and strategizing.
This recent ad is an example of what I mean in targeting local and Congressional races: : https://www.nbcnews.com/
Public attitudes are always shifting and fickle, influenced by money, propaganda, and media as well as self-interest, but my favorite source remains Politics & Policy - Research and data from the Pew Research Center
https://news.yahoo.com/gops-main-voter-bloc-shrinking-153954578.html "A new deep dive into the 2020 electorate by Pew Research contain mostly bad news for Republicans, whose approaching demographic dooms less racial than it is generational. While it shouldn't be news to anyone at this point that young voters are a solidly blue voting bloc, the more worrisome developments for the GOP are the unexpectedly elderly nature of the party's coalition and the unyielding Democratic lean of younger voters as they age. If Pew's numbers are to be believed, the only solidly Republican age demographic last year was 75 and over, meaning that every time the sun comes up, the GOP's struggle to win a majority of American voters gets harder."
On the flip side, Democrats show a gain and the gap between those registered as Republicans v Democrats show a gain for Democrats the most since 2012. Democrats nationwide have unusually shown an advantage in registration, but this is a significant widening of the gap in the Democrats' favor. Gallup poll shows large increase in Democratic Party affiliation (usatoday.com)
Thanks for share advance information
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