GOP's lump of coal in Christmas stockings: a law suit to end Obamacare

GOP’s lump of coal in Christmas stockings: a lawsuit to end Obamacare
A version of this was published in the Sky Hi News 12 18-19 2018
https://www.skyhinews.com/news/opinion/opinion-muftic-gops-lump-of-coal-in-christmas-stockings-a-lawsuit-to-end-obamacare/
Last week a Texas federal judge ruled that Obamacare was unconstitutional.  67,000 in Colorado are now  able to afford quality health insurance and get their coverage through the state exchange including  Medicaid expansion.   About a third of Americans have pre-existing conditions that  must be covered by their insurance thanks to Obamacare. What now?  It will take months if not years for this suit to be appealed and to make it to the Supreme Court. Given the GOP attempt to stack the lower federal courts and  the Supreme Court with their loyalists, who knows what the ultimate outcome will be, but in the short term, Obamacare ( the Affordable Care Act,  ACA) will be the operative  health care plan. The forty seats gained by the Democrats in the US House of Representatives in the midterms  will  give them a strong majority in the next two years to come up with a  plan, either a version of Medicare for All or a repair and revision of the ACA,  and immediate protection of the ACA from the GOP suit. Whatever the House Democrats pass will likely be rejected by the GOP Senate which increased their majority by a couple of seats in the November  midterms.
This suit  has been in the works for some time before the midterms. It was a scheme hatched by the GOP that had failed to get Congress to do their dirty work,  thanks to Sen. John McCain’s thumbs down vote on repealing the ACA, and to get it done through the courts instead. Filing the suit were twenty  GOP state attorneys general, some who later lost their party’s seats over the ACA suit support in November.
The political fallout in 2020 will put the GOP on the defensive no matter who their candidate may be. The GOP will be far more at risk of controlling both houses of Congress in 2020  than they did in November. They  will have many more Senate seats in purple and blue states up for election than they did in 2018. The GOP seems not to have learned a lesson in 2018 midterms when the issue of their hostility to  coverage of pre-existing conditions and continuation of Obamacare and their failure to   provide a replacement were a major issues in flipping many of the state and House races blue. It was the top public policy issue on voters’ minds by all polls.
 If the GOP suit makes it through appeals and the Supreme Court, coverage of pre-existing conditions, affordable insurance premiums for 20 million people, removing caps on coverage, requiring young adults to be covered, Medicaid expansion to the near poor, coverage of mental health and substance abuse, and more, would be dead. In pre-Obama care insurance coverage, pregnancy was considered a pre-existing condition and insurance often charged more for women’s health insurance. The GOP began gathering support for the suit when Obamacare was younger and public opinion swallowed their fear tactics that there would be death panels and that they could not choose their doctors or keep them.  With personal experience  they appreciated the benefits, affordability and did have more  choice of doctors than they thought they would have so public  opinion shifted to majority approval of Obamacare and over 60% approval of  each if the major  separate protections the ACA provided. They saw repeal of Obamacare was worse for their pocket books than having Obamacare warts and all.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-07/emboldened-democratic-ags-gird-for-more-trump-resistance

https://www.healthleadersmedia.com/strategy/healthcare-winners-and-losers-election-night-2018

https://www.steamboatpilot.com/news/how-coloradans-benefitted-from-obamacare/

https://www.thebalance.com/how-could-trump-change-health-care-in-america-4111422

https://www.cbpp.org/health/commentary-texas-suit-is-one-among-many-attempts-to-undo-pre-existing-condition-protections

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2018/10/11/fact-check-whos-right-about-protections-for-pre-existing-conditions

https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/05/politics/texas-affordable-care-act-obamacare-lawsuit/index.html

https://www.yahoo.com/news/mcconnell-defends-trump-backed-suit-080000483.html?soc_src=hl-viewer&soc_trk=fb

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trumpcare-will-hurt-people-next-year-201655059.html

https://www.kiplinger.com/article/insurance/T027-C001-S003-cost-of-employer-health-coverage-to-rise-in-2019.html

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/09/gop-preexisting-conditions-bill-may-have-usd1-million-premium.html

https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/05/politics/texas-affordable-care-act-obamacare-lawsuit/index.html

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2018/09/25/obamacare-affordable-care-act-repeal-preexisting-conditions-attorney-general-elections/1419481002/

https://www.denverpost.com/2018/10/13/colorado-attorney-general-race/

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-senate-mcconnell-policy/mcconnell-says-senate-republicans-might-revisit-obamacare-repeal-idUSKCN1MR2QE

Democrats, don't blow it.

A version of this was published in Sky Hi News print and e-edition November 14, 2018 and on line
https://www.skyhinews.com/news/opinion/opinion-muftic-democrats-dont-blow-it/
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Democrats scored heavily on November 6 in the midterms.  There were significant gains in the suburbs and in bringing new voters to the polls .  The result was a large shift to blue in many state legislatures, seven governors, and in the  U.S. House of Representatives. The structural foundation  has been laid for Democrats in the 2020 presidential year, especially in the Senate and in states where redistricting and gerrymandering activities would be in control of more Democrats than in 2016.  The GOP remained in control in the Senate and  gained some seats  in the Senate though some races are still facing recounts. In 2020  many more sitting Republican Senate seats will be contested in blue states. Democrats can build on this if they do not blow it .

Colorado went deep blue.  GOP Congressman Mike Coffman lost his suburban seat to Democrat Jason Crow, and the state Senate flipped from red to blue, as did every single state office currently held by Republicans. The governor’s seat and state House legislature  remained in Democratic hands.  Joe  Neguse , a Democrat ,  won Jerad  Polis’ vacated seat as Polis won his race for governor. Neguse will be Grand County's representative to Congress.  Colorado Politics, a publication limited to subscribers, reports a poll showed that much of the Democratic wins were due to unaffiliated shifting to them because they loathed Donald Trump himself. https://coloradopolitics.com/poll-finds-unaffiliated-voters-in-colorado-dont-like-republicans-loathe-trump/

Grand County  has always been very red, but it went pink this year.  Grand County’s registration’s most recent  party affiliation  (Feb. 2018) numbers were   21.6%  Democrats,   38.3% Republican,  and  40.1  independents/Libertarians/Green.  However, in the midterms  Democrats impressively  outperformed their registration share  especially when  compared to 2016 results of Trump(52%)-Clinton (38%), a 14% difference.   In the 2018 midterms, Grand County GOP voters trumped Democrats by only  a 5% margin of total votes  in the Governor and Congressional race and 8% in the other state wide positions. Grand County, part of a state House district with  the county's  majority voting for the GOP candidate,  found its Democrat state representative, KC Becker, re-elected and named Speaker of the House for the next two years.
Democrats can take a lesson from their  national midterm success. The winners and the near winner gainers emphasized solving local problems, red tide, water quality, roads and bridges,   and focusing on access to health care. Protecting the pocket books and health of middle income Americans was a winner.
However, fundamentally contributing to  Democrat’s wins was Donald Trump.  He made the midterms an election about himself and voters took him up on that.  The Democrat’s pitch, check him by turning the House blue, appeared to have resonated.  Per  PBS exit polls. race, gender, age,  and education levels were  also determining factors per Pew Research. Per Politico, race and age were not factors in Colorado, but the richer, more educated counties tilted to Democrats.   Trump’s  constant belittling and  insulting  women, especially women of color  (horse face, pig, empty barrel, a graduate of Yale law school, state legislature minority leader was unqualified) who challenge him resulted in a 19 point  gender gap for women, doubling the 2016 gap per pollster Fivethirtyeight.
Here is how the Democrats can blow their growing advantage for 2020.   Democrat’s control of the House and a slightly increased GOP control of the Senate  makes impeachment unlikely, but it also saves Obamacare and meaningful coverage of pre-existing conditions from GOP Senate efforts to repeal, and not replace.  The  Democratic House turns any   GOP Senate  initiative to sabotage and repeal Obamacare a futile exercise.  A Senate still in GOP hands makes impeachment unlikely. If Democrats had a weakness at the beginning of 2018, it was viewed as just “anti-Trump” and no one knew what it stood for. Saving Obamacare (ACA) Medicare and Social Security, emerged as their plank .Not only must  Democrats make an effort to   deliver, they also must be perceived by the middle class voters as looking after their family budget concerns.  Having every news cycle dominated by sensational House investigations into Trump administration misdeeds could drown out efforts to develop Democrats’ credibility as advocates for middle class pocket book issues. In 2020,  Donald Trump may not be the GOP candidate.
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  That is going to be a challenge. Donald Trump has already thrown down his gauntlet with a move the day after the elections, in an overt maneuver to cut the Mueller investigation off at the knees. He fired Attorney General Sessions and replaced him with a loyalist,  anti-Mueller probe, who had never been confirmed by the Senate, setting off  charges that this appointment was illegal. A media firestorm erupted.
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House Democrats are aware of the balancing act of checking Trump v positioning themselves on winning public policy issues before 2020.  I heard one Congressperson comment that "don't worry; we can walk and chew gum at the same time".  The problem is that media gets fixated on the the more sensational, headline grabbing, breaking news stories and the grind of the legislative process is a slow burn and, as often noted: "like sausage being made", some times ugly and taking many steps. The hot topic on health care will be the media fixation on what faction of the Democratic party wins: the Bernie Sanders Medicare for All or the more moderate: repair Obamacare.  In the next two years, given the GOP control of the Senate, legislation will likely become deadlocked and Democrats will be lucky just to see preservation of Obamacare  as it is now. Should the Supreme Court, now firmly ideologically to the right, rule Obamacare is unconstitutional or that the coverage of pre-existing conditions is the part of Obamacare that is unconstituional, then the job of the House is to make sure any replacement legislation is not just a bill title, but truly is an equivalent and comparable replacement.  The worst screw-up  the Democrats could do would be to break up into two factions over which form of health insurance they want. Medicare for All is a moot issue until 2020 when the Democrats have a chance to flip the Senate blue, keep the House, and have someone in the White House who will not use the veto pen.

One possible strategy for the next two years would be for the House to originate two health care insurance bills: one woud be for Medicare for All , to pass tha,t and ship it to the Senate for them to be on the record of killing it and then, after it is killed,  send through an Obamacare repair bill.  That would permit the CBO to score it so we really know what the comparative  costs would be on the   official record. Otherwise there will be wild claims made to scare people away from either partisan side.  It would also put on record where every member of Congress stood on the issues for the purposes of the 2020 election cycle.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/how-voters-viewed-trump-health-care-and-immigration-according-to-exit-polls
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/11/08/the-2018-midterm-vote-divisions-by-race-gender-education/
https://www.skyhinews.com/news/how-grand-county-voted-2018-midterm-election-results/
https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/colorado/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-2018-gender-gap-was-huge/
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/11/9/18075536/midterm-elections-2018-results-governors-state-legislatures-agenda
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/11/7/18071410/democrat-state-legislature-colorado-minnesota-election-results
https://www.coloradoindependent.com/2018/11/07/littwin-polis-trump-stapleton-crow-neguse/
https://elections.denverpost.com/results/county-break-down/all/?Grand/08049
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-senate-elections.html

http://www.dailycamera.com/news/boulder/ci_32260366/boulder-rep-kc-becker-will-be-next-state?source=most_viewed
https://denver.cbslocal.com/2018/11/09/jason-crow-congress-washington-aurora-mike-coffman/

Why the fuss about midterms? Donald Trump is not on the ballot

A version of this was published in the Sky Hi News, Oct.30-Oct 31, 2018
https://www.skyhinews.com/news/opinion/opinion-muftic-why-the-midterm-fuss-donald-trump-is-not-on-the-ballot/

Donald Trump is not on the ballot but he  says he wants the November 6 midterms to be a referendum about him.  If so, send him a message with your vote.  That is the American way. What is not the American way are his  words of hate and fear or to deliver the same in return. Words have consequences." Violence begets violence" (MLK.Jr)

Both parties use  heated political oratory, but no one is  equivalent to the bully pulpit of a president  and no one equals Trump’s constant insults of rivals by name, his demeaning racial and religious minorities, and his exhortation of  violence against reporters.  This is still a citizen driven democracy. If that is the president we want to continue to empower, that is the president we get.  My hope is that  most Americans  see an America better than that.  We are becoming two countries: one mired in yearning for a past where racism was not tempered by political correctness  and patriarchy reigned unchallenged.  There is another America driven  by tolerance, fairness,  and idealism of our founders who gave us a form of democracy that, unless abused, would protect us from hate mongers.  In the Novembers of  2018 and 2020, this country has the opportunity to choose which country it will be for years to come.

The horrific massacre in the Pittsburgh synagogue Saturday reminds us  of what an atmosphere of hate of “others” can foster. The anti-Semitic, anti-immigrant shooter posted his beliefs on social media. Chants of “lock her up”, “Build the wall” rocked and still rocks Trump’s  rallies. Earlier in the week, a  frequent Trump rally attender addressed letter bombs to the who’s who of Trump’s  named enemies and critics  and  had plastered his van with targets drawn over faces of those who were to become  bomb recipients.  The FBI and Attorney General Jeff Sessions quickly put to rest Trump media promoted conspiracy theories that this was a hoax, committed by Democrats to make the President look bad. The bombs were real. The accused was a partisan.

Trump cannot control how every unhinged follower will react, but Trump with his powerful position  bears a special responsibility not to be a match that lights the fires.  Trump  does not stop hate filled chants at rallies; he regales in them.  Trump, taking no responsibility in inspiring hateful violence,  blamed the bomber  on the mainstream media he had frequently called  the  enemy of the people. For what? For reporting and preserving Trump’s own words, for providing live coverage of his rallies, and  fact checking?

Not to be lost in breaking news, are issues that impact many,  health care coverage and Roe v Wade’s survival.  We are voting for  state officials who can shape them .Twenty GOP State Attorney Generals have sued  to declare the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare)  unconstitutional, ending subsidized health insurance  premiums and  coverage of pre-existing conditions. There is no comparable replacement.  The Democrat  Colorado Attorney General candidate Phil Weiser would  defend  the ACA against the Texas suit destined for the Supreme Court. His GOP opponent  George Brauchler, once had backed repeal.  The conservative Supreme Court  majority is likely either to rule against Roe v Wade or to give more power to states to restrict access. The Governor can veto  what  its legislature passes.  Democrat Jared Polis is pro choice. His opponent Walker Stapleton is pro life and  is mum if he would sign state legislation further restricting abortions. In the Attorney General’s race, Weiser is pro choice.  Anti choice Brauchler has left open  whether he would file  a brief  before the Supreme Court urging  repeal  of Roe v Wade

 Forgot to register?  No problem. In Colorado, you can register up to and  on election day , November 6. Visit https://www.sos.state.co.us/voter/pages/pub/home.xhtml for how.  For candidate positions, google.

(This  posting draws on, condenses, joins and updates some recent postings
Footnotes and sources can also be found in prior postings on similar subjects)

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/10/what-to-know-about-the-pittsburgh-synagogue-shooting.html
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/latest-trump-claims-blamed-mail-bombs-58764292
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Violence_begets_violence
https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/413519-director-of-adl-we-will-continue-to-call-out-trump-but-this-is#.W9cIA9nCQ4Y.facebook

Brett Kavanaugh v Dr. Ford

Brett Kavanaugh v Dr. Blasey Ford. The underlining issue is the attitude of the Republican Senators toward a woman who is reliving a trauma of sexual assault. It is consistent with those senators’ past actions, but times are changing and the senators’ attitudes are fossilized. That President Trump has had a hand in this should not be excused either, since he has refused to order the FBI to investigate the veracity of both parties. The drama is unfolding as this is written, but the damage to the GOP has already been done. The burden falls mostly on the shoulders of the GOP Senators and they are the ones who deserve the wrath of women expressed in the voting booth November 6.
There must be plenty of mid 50 year olds, male and female, who are resurrecting memories of their high school years they experienced in the 1980’s, but  high school out of control preppies  behaving like that in those days were not unique happenings.   The danger is their old attitudes could color their judgment calls and so far Brett Kavanaugh has denied the event ever happened, much less has he expressed any remorse.  By that measure, Donald Trump’s behavior is appalling, having himself admitted to sexual assault well into his latter years, as accusers have charged  and we have  his own attitudes toward grabbing on tape. The critical  problem on the table at this moment, though,  is  how the Republicans in Congress are treating Dr. Ford or will attack her as a person in an attempt to paint her as the guilty party. That has been standard operating procedure by defenders of male misbehavior in the past. The old attitudes prevail in they way GOP Senators  are treating her .  Women of  certain ages are having flashbacks as how their traumas have been treated and how shame and fear they too would not have been  respected or believed if they publicly recounted their own experiences.   That is the reason the #metoo movement has gained so much political traction and the pink pussy  ears have become their symbol.  Add to that, the attempt to overturn Roe v Wade is part of the same general political revolt of women who are no longer willing to tolerate  male patriarchal attitudes or male  control over their bodies  any more.  In short, this is a revolt of women and both issues, how Dr. Ford is respected during this ordeal and how the Supreme Court will act in a woman’s right to choose have landed in the lap of the Kavanaugh nomination.  This is not any nomination, either. If Kavanaugh’s nomination is successful, he will insure his attitudes toward women and their respective rights and power will be reflected as the swing vote in the Court for years to come.
Here is why anger at the GOP Senate should and has  rightly become  the focus:   Once again, a woman’s recounting of a traumatic sexual encounter, an attempted rape, is the same old, same old reaction, pattern of  a group of powerful older males  who close minds as they close ranks. Their attitudes and prejudices were made public. Some already opined  Dr. Ford was just “mixed up “, in advance of any examination of evidence. Some of the same very Senators  had also played a role in the disservice to Anita Hill in the Clarence Thomas Supreme Court hearings, including Senate chair of the same Judicial  committee, Chuck Grassley , and Orin Hatch.  Demanding that the committee vote proceed without requiring  testimony under oath of  anyone other than Kavanaugh and Dr Ford, from the male witness, Mark Judge,  to Dr. Ford’s twenty potential witnesses with knowledge of the event, is an outrage.
Dr. Ford is a reluctant witness. She foresaw the ordeal of becoming public. The death threats, email hacking have been an attempt to intimidate her. It also will make it difficult for others to come forward on her behalf , fearing the same treatment..Unless the FBI treats such threats and intimidation as a crime and take action at once, that would also be an outrage.
Donald Trump has begun to change his tune, attacking Dr. Ford himself publicly, and demanding a report of the attempted rape filed contemporaneously if it was so bad. From Yahoo News fact check:  "She was 15 at the time and the incident was not a federal crime". From https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/sexual-assault-victims/ 77% of sexual assaults go unreported.

If you can't fire Rosenstein, impeach him?

Update: 5/10/18) At issue: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/nunes-subpoena-to-justice-dept-requested-all-documents-about-individual-described-as-longtime-intelligence-source

5/11/18 New bipartisan attempt to protect Mueller's investigation by preserving and reporting fruits of investigation if fired. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/lawmakers-weigh-plan-b-protect-mueller-s-work-n873241

A version of this was published in the Sky Hi News May 7, 2018.
https://www.skyhinews.com/news/muftic-if-trump-cant-fire-him-impeach-rosenstein/


DOJ refuses to release information Nunes demanded because it asked for disclosure of the redacted information on what the DOJ says is an intelligence source and to release that name would damage national security and imperil the life of the source. The DOJ and Democrats on the the House Intelligence committee which Nunes chairs believes that 1) Donald Trump is looking for a pretext to fire Rosenstein if he does not provide the information and that 2) the information would flow to the White House, giving them inside information, a roadmap, needed for a defense against Mueller findings. Also imperiled in this is Attorney Jeff Sessions as well as Rod Rosenstein, since their refusal to turn over the classified information of ongoing investigations...long policy of the DOJ... This could open up the pretext for the President to fire Sessions and Rosenstein or for the impeachment of Rosenstein and then to close down the Mueller probe. As of 5/10/18, the issue is kicked over until next week. (comments per Ari Melber and guests on MSNBC). Impeachment of Rosenstein would take that off the hands of the President who probably would trigger impeachment for obstruction of justice action if he did it. This way one cannot impeach Nunes and his GOP cohorts who also received backing from Speaker Ryan to day for wanting to expose a secret source..

If Donald Trump cannot fire Rod Rosenstein because it would look too much like obstruction of justice, then the House Freedom Caucus is trying to impeach Rod Rosenstein, Deputy Attorney General, who oversees the Mueller Russian investigation.  Their impeachment attempt begins this week. The House Freedom Caucus is clearly trying obstruct justice by crippling the Mueller investigation to oust his boss, Rosenstein, in hopes that a Trump loyalist would take his place and rein in the Mueller investigation.  Clever. There is no way to impeach the House members for their obstructing justice.

At least three times since the first of the year Donald Trump asserted he wanted to fire Rod Rosenstein. However  a handful of GOP Senators warned him that could lead to his own impeachment for obstructing justice, much like the Nixon Watergate impeachment, when Nixon fired the investigators , special counsels, and Department of Justice ( DOJ ) officials  investigating his connection and cover up.

Why is Rosenstein such an object of this attempt? Rosenstein is the key player. He is the one who can fire Mueller and Mueller’s charge is to give a report to Rosenstein who has the power to decide whether to refer the report to Congress for their decision and power to impeach a president.   Since Donald Trump does not have the power to fire Mueller directly, he needs to replace Rosenstein with a loyalist who will either restrict Mueller’s probe or fire him. To Trump’s rescue comes the Freedom Caucus impeachment attempt.

Both Rosenstein’s  boss, Attorney General Jeff Sessions,  and he were appointed by Donald Trump. Both are Republicans.  Sessions has threatened to resign if the president fired Rosenstein. Sessions heads the Department of Justice (DOJ).Sessions recused himself because he himself had unreported conversations with the Russians during the 2016 campaign so that the task of overseeing the investigations fell to Rosenstein, next in line. . In turn, the DOJ/FBI had  already been engaged in investigating the Russian interference in the 2016 elections since the summer of 2016. When Trump fired the FBI director James Comey, allegedly for not swearing loyalty to him or for refusing to cooperate in the Russian connection investigations. Rosenstein hired a special counsel, Robert Mueller, to investigate whether obstruction of justice, conspiracy  (collusion) with the Russians to fix the elections, or other crimes were found to have been committed. Mueller’s investigators are the FBI, IRS and intelligence services, and any number of other federal investigators led by prosecutors in three jurisdictions. Whatever happens to Mueller, or Rosenstein, these other investigations could continue. So why bother?

A political drama  indeed will be all that will result. The merits of the arguments deserve an entire separate column, but the politics of it are clear.  The chances that the Senate would provide them with ⅔ vote needed to oust Rosenstein will not happen because there are not enough GOP senators . This is purely a political move geared to gin up the Trump base before the 2018 elections or to paint the Department of Justice full of non-Trump loyalists that are  so prejudiced against Trump that any findings and reports would have no credibility. In public addresses made to lawyer groups last week, Rod Rosenstein is holding firm in his support of the rule of law and called the House attempt: “extortion“. “...“We are going to do what is required by the rule of law and any kind of threats anybody makes are not going to affect the way we do our job.”

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This follows in the heels of the GOP Chair of the House Intelligence Committee,  Devin Nunes, abruptly cutting off their committee’s investigation into the Russian interference in the 2016 presidential elections that helped Donald Trump win. That committee was a farce, with  Rep. Devin Nunes caught coordinating actions with the White House in his infamous midnight ride to report to the White House what the White House had disclosed to him. . Nunes then engineered the end of the committee’s investigation without calling on key witnesses and subpoenaing key

documents. The minority Democrats were never consulted and issued their minority report that highlighted those shortcomings. Of course, the Mueller investigation continued in spite of these efforts since Mueller has farmed out his investigations to various agencies and several other prosecutors in other jurisdictions.

Failing that, per the conservative Washington Times,May 1,  “ The House Freedom Caucus, which is chaired by Rep. Mark Meadows, North Carolina Republican, have drafted eight articles of impeachment against Mr. Rosenstein, multiple media outlets reported late Monday. Those drafts reportedly accuse Mr. Rosenstein of abusing his authority when he renewed a Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) warrant on Trump campaign aide Carter Page ahead of the 2016 presidential campaign.”  All of these charges are based on the Nunes led committee.

In the meantime, a handful of Senators made it clear they would not approve attempts to oust Mueller, enough given the closely divided Senate to stop amy impeachment attempts of Rosenstein. Bills have been introduced to protect Mueller, but have gotten nowhere because the Senate GOP leader refuses to bring the bills up to a vote, claiming it was unnecessary since the White House had no plans to fire Mueller. Whether those same senators would oppose impeaching Rosenstein is not known, but given the close partisan balance in the Senate, getting a 2/3 vote to convict and oust would still be an impossibility.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/04/11/trump-mueller-republican-senate-516431

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/01/rosenstein-justice-department-extortion-563167

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2018/04/18/read-my-lips-no-new-bill-to-protect-robert-mueller-mitch-mcconnell-basically/?utm_term=.362139c0e3f3

http://thehill.com/policy/national-security/385587-conservative-house-lawmakers-draft-articles-of-impeachment-against

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/01/rosenstein-justice-department-extortion-563167

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/may/1/rod-rosenstein-calls-impeachment-effort-extortion

https://www.c-span.org/video/?444870-1/justice-department-extorted-articles-impeachment-rosenstein

https://www.justice.gov/opa/press-release/file/967231/download

https://www.factcheck.org/2017/07/trumps-power-pardon/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._Nixon

http://www.newsweek.com/trump-leak-mueller-questions-experts-906857

The is a replication of a prior blog post , updated, providing more details. Why firing Rod Rosenstein would be like   firing Robert Mueller, 2/ 7 /18

This post was written the last time rumors were Donald Trump was threatening to fire those investigating him, but it is a relevant now as rumors are rampant now, 4 11 18

Revised February 8, 2018

Update: April 20, 2018: AG Sessions threatens to quite if Rosenstein is fired:

http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/384221-sessions-warned-white-house-he-could-quit-if-trump-fired-rosenstein

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/02/us/politics/trump-justice-department-house-republicans.html

Rosenstein's tenure is in jeopardy. CNN quotes  President Trump as having said of Rosenstein, “Let's fire him, let's get rid of him,” but was talked out of it.  Soon after the Nunes memo  came to the public's attention, it was seen by critics  as an attempt to create a pretext for the President to fire him. Mr. Trump revived the possibility. When asked if he would fire Rosenstein,  Trump answered "you figure it out".  In a letter to President Trump, Democratic Congressional leaders wrote "Firing Rod Rosenstein, DOJ Leadership, or Bob Mueller could result in a constitutional crisis of the kind not seen since the Saturday Night Massacre." They were referring to  similar actions Richard Nixon took in Watergate. Even Paul Ryan, House Majority Leader, said : "Rod Rosenstein is doing a fine job."

Donald Trump has his own self-interested reasons to want to fire Deputy Attorney General Rod  Rosenstein. Assuming President Trump believes firing Special Counsel Robert Mueller would certainly trigger serious impeachment attempts, firing Rosenstein would be a tempting  alternative. Rosenstein has already indicated he was not a Trump team player when his Department of Justice objected to the release of the Nunes memo.The Nunes memo was also viewed by many as an attempt to provide  Donald Trump with a public rationale to fire Rosenstein for alleged “deep state bias” and for FBI alleged incompetence in a single court filing to renew a FISA warrant for surveillance of Carter Page. The Nunes memo was also seen as an attempt to damage the credibility of the FBI so that their findings would be viewed as biased.  Polls show that strategy is working with the GOP rank and file

Some senators have warned him  firing Rosenstein also could backfire on him just as did the the firing of FBI Director James Comey. Comey was investigating President Trump's associates' with contacts with Russians. That firing  resulted in the appointment of Mueller to investigate if the President or his associates were obstructing justice or they conspired with Russians to interfere in the 2016 elections, or even if financial crimes were committed, all possible impeachable offenses.

Another possible temptation  for Donald Trump to fire Rod Rosenstein  would be to limit the scope of Mueller’s report.  The Deputy AG has the power to put the report in a desk drawer if he does not see release of it would be in the public's interest, whatever that means. A new deputy AG could take money laundering off the table or out of the report, for example. Mr. Trump has made it clear that subject was a red line he thought Mueller should not cross.

The game could then become delay, delay, delay until after the November Congressional elections. Firing Rosenstein and replacing him with a Trump loyalist could a result in drawn out  court challenges, congressional hearings, and a confirmation vote of the Senate, though it would not halt the investigation since it could continue under Rosenstein's deputy. Donald Trump could also  contend his reason try to avoid testifying to the Mueller team or taking the 5th was that the FBI was too politically biased against him. That issue could also be tied up in the Courts past the November 2018 election.

Win or lose the  court challenges, resulting  delays could benefit the GOP and President Trump. The GOP fear is the 2018 midterms could flip control of the  House that has impeachment powers to Democrats. The GOP now has the majority in the House and while they have control, it is realistic to believe they would not impeach their President. Delays would give Donald Trump an opportunity  to keep up the morale of his base through November and keep Congress in GOP hands. It might work. In the midst of Watergate, Nixon was re-elected to a second term by a large majority. It was not until after that election he was forced by the courts to release the tapes that his role in the Watergate cover up was revealed to the public and impeachment was begun.

There are two unforeseen circumstances that could change this scenario: the Mueller findings could be

so explosive even House Republicans could not ignore them and would proceed with impeachment or

that Mueller would indict the president and shortcut impeachment proceedings.  Whether he has the power to do the latter is an unsettled legal matter and would depend upon a Supreme Court ruling..

____________________________________________________________________

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2017/12/republicans-quietly-warn-trump-dont-fire-mueller/

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2517

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/12/mueller-trump-deutsche-bank

https://www.cnn.com/2018/01/26/politics/donald-trump-rod-rosenstein-frustration/index.html

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/02/02/democrats-trump-obstruction-386078

http://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/372215-house-intel-gop-rep-memo-doesnt-give-trump-reason-to-fire

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/house-gop-leaders-hold-weekly-press-conference-ahead-of-sotu-live-stream/

https://www.factcheck.org/2018/02/qa-nunes-memo/

http://www.businessinsider.com/mueller-threatened-to-subpoena-trump-over-negotiations-for-interview-2018-5

From factcheck.org    https://www.factcheck.org/2017/05/special-counsel-qa/

“What happens when the special counsel’s investigation is complete?

Rosenstein’s order notes that if Mueller deems it “necessary and appropriate,” he is “authorized to prosecute federal crimes arising from the investigation of these matters.” The federal code states that at the conclusion of a special counsel’s investigation, he must provide the acting attorney general with a confidential report explaining decisions about whether or not prosecutions are warranted. The acting attorney general could decide to make that report public. According to the code, the “Attorney General may determine that public release of these reports would be in the public interest, to the extent that release would comply with applicable legal restrictions.”

Why firing Rod Rosenstein would be like firing Robert Mueller

Now the House Freedom Caucus is trying to "fire"Rosenstein: Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein Tuesday compared articles of impeachment drafted against him by members of the conservative House Freedom Caucus to an extortion attempt.

“There have been people who have been making threats privately and publicly against me for quite sometime and I think they should understand the Department of Justice is not going to be extorted,” he said speaking at The Newseum’s Law Day event. “We are going to do what is required by the rule of law and any kind of threats anybody makes are not going to affect the way we do our job.”

The House Freedom Caucus, which is chaired by Rep. Mark Meadows, North Carolina Republican, have drafted eight articles of impeachment against Mr. Rosenstein, multiple media outlets reported late Monday. Those drafts reportedly accuse Mr. Rosenstein of abusing his authority when he renewed a Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) warrant on Trump campaign aide Carter Page ahead of the 2016 presidential campaign.

From the Washington Times, May 1, 2018

https://www.c-span.org/video/?444870-1/justice-department-extorted-articles-impeachment-rosenstein

https://www.factcheck.org/2017/07/trumps-power-pardon/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._Nixon

http://www.newsweek.com/trump-leak-mueller-questions-experts-906857

This post was written the last time rumors were Donald Trump was threatening to fire those investigating him, but it is a relevant now as rumors are rampant now, 4 11 18
Revised February 8, 2018

Update: April 20, 2018: AG Sessions threatens to quite if Rosenstein is fired:
http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/384221-sessions-warned-white-house-he-could-quit-if-trump-fired-rosenstein

Why do some in Congress equate firing Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein with the same importance as  firing  Special Counsel Robert Mueller? We know the Deputy Attorney General has the power to fire Mueller and the President must go through him to do it, but whoever sits in the Deputy Attorney General's chair also  has the ability  to influence the outcome of the Mueller investigation even if Mueller is not fired. The Deputy AG has the power to limit the  scope of the investigation and to make  the  decision whether  to release the Mueller report in some form to the US public.  

Rosenstein's tenure is in jeopardy. CNN quotes  President Trump as having said of Rosenstein, “Let's fire him, let's get rid of him,” but was talked out of it.  Soon after the Nunes memo came to the public's attention, it was seen by critics as an attempt to create a pretext for the President to fire him. Mr. Trump revived the possibility. When asked if he would fire Rosenstein,  Trump  answered "you figure it out".  In a letter to President Trump, Democratic Congressional leaders wrote "Firing Rod Rosenstein, DOJ Leadership, or Bob Mueller could result in a constitutional crisis of the kind not seen since the Saturday Night Massacre." They were referring to  similar actions Richard Nixon took in Watergate. Even Paul Ryan, House Majority  Leader, said : "Rod Rosenstein is doing a fine job."  

Donald Trump has his own self-interested reasons to want to fire Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein. Assuming President Trump believes firing Special Counsel Robert Mueller would certainly trigger serious impeachment attempts, firing Rosenstein would be a tempting alternative. Rosenstein has already indicated he was not a Trump team player when his Department of Justice  objected to the release of the Nunes memo.The Nunes memo was also  viewed by many as an attempt to provide  Donald Trump with a public rationale  to fire Rosenstein  for alleged “deep state bias” and  for  FBI alleged  incompetence in a single  court filing to renew a FISA warrant for surveillance of Carter Page. The Nunes memo was also seen as an attempt to damage the credibility of the FBI so that their findings would be viewed as biased. Polls show that strategy is working with the GOP rank and file

Some senators have warned him firing Rosenstein also could backfire on him just as did the the firing of FBI Director James Comey. Comey was investigating President Trump's associates' with contacts with Russians. That firing resulted in the appointment of Mueller to investigate if the President or his associates were obstructing justice or they conspired with Russians to interfere in the 2016 elections, or even if financial crimes were committed, all possible impeachable offenses.

Another possible temptation for Donald Trump to fire Rod Rosenstein would be to limit the scope of Mueller’s report. The Deputy AG has the power to put the report in a desk drawer if he does not see release of it would be in the public's interest, whatever that means. A new deputy AG could take money laundering off the table or out of the report, for example. Mr. Trump has made it clear that subject was a red line he thought Mueller should not cross.

The game could then become delay, delay, delay until after the November Congressional elections. Firing Rosenstein and replacing him with a Trump loyalist could a result in drawn out court challenges, congressional hearings, and a confirmation vote of the Senate, though it would not halt the investigation since it could continue under Rosenstein's deputy. Donald Trump could also contend his reason try to avoid testifying to the Mueller team or taking the 5th was that the FBI was too politically biased against him. That issue could also be tied up in the Courts past the November 2018 election.

Win or lose the court challenges, resulting delays could benefit the GOP and President Trump. The GOP fear is the 2018 midterms could flip control of the  House that  has impeachment powers to Democrats. The GOP now has the majority in the House and while they have control, it is realistic to believe they would not impeach their President. Delays would give Donald Trump an opportunity to keep up the morale of his base through November and keep Congress in GOP hands. It might work. In the midst of Watergate, Nixon was re-elected to a second term by a large majority. It was not until after that  election he was forced by the courts to release the tapes that his role in the Watergate cover up was revealed to the public and impeachment was begun.

There are two unforeseen circumstances that could change this scenario: the Mueller findings could be
so explosive even House Republicans could not ignore them and would proceed with impeachment or
that Mueller would indict the president and shortcut impeachment proceedings. Whether he has the power to do the latter is an unsettled legal matter and would depend upon a Supreme Court ruling..

____________________________________________________________________

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2017/12/republicans-quietly-warn-trump-dont-fire-mueller/

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2517

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/12/mueller-trump-deutsche-bank

https://www.cnn.com/2018/01/26/politics/donald-trump-rod-rosenstein-frustration/index.html

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/02/02/democrats-trump-obstruction-386078

http://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/372215-house-intel-gop-rep-memo-doesnt-give-trump-reason-to-fire

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/house-gop-leaders-hold-weekly-press-conference-ahead-of-sotu-live-stream/

https://www.factcheck.org/2018/02/qa-nunes-memo/

http://www.businessinsider.com/mueller-threatened-to-subpoena-trump-over-negotiations-for-interview-2018-5

 From factcheck.org    https://www.factcheck.org/2017/05/special-counsel-qa/

“What happens when the special counsel’s investigation is complete?

Rosenstein’s order notes that if Mueller deems it “necessary and appropriate,” he is “authorized to prosecute federal crimes arising from the investigation of these matters.” The federal code states that at the conclusion of a special counsel’s investigation, he must provide the acting attorney general with a confidential report explaining decisions about whether or not prosecutions are warranted. The acting attorney general could decide to make that report public. According to the code, the “Attorney General may determine that public release of these reports would be in the public interest, to the extent that release would comply with applicable legal restrictions.”