Monday, October 13, 2014

Playing for the long term in November 2014




This election, 2014, is much more about the next president than it is about the current one. The longer game will have a far greater impact on our country’s direction than the shorter one.


Our vote this November is  mostly about  what happens post Obama presidency, because those we are electing will influence  a very likely  Supreme Court vacancy filling and legislative deadlocks. Any elected Senator has 6 years to warm a Senate seat.


The future Senate will have the opportunity to decide on whatever this Court punted, from Roe v Wade,  same sex marriage, to affirmative action, to  election finance laws, to health care and the ACA, and the overreach  and unconstitutionality of  actions  either by the President or Congress or various states.


Here is the short term.


This November election appears to be a referendum on a lame duck president as candidates look like they are rerunning  2012.
If the GOP takes  over the Senate , we are on track for a mammoth case of deadlock and stalemate  for two more years, the remainder of the President’s term.


If we fear  the President will become more “imperial”, the only way left for him  to  overcome  stalemate and deadlock  is to issue more executive orders . Court challenges for his orders  will likely be decided after he leaves office.  Since he is term limited,  ticking  off one special interest, party,  or others  will not affect his prospects of re-election.  


President Obama will only be constrained by concern for his “legacy” and so far he has shown little regard for that. He seems to be  doing “what he thinks is right “ or is doggedly  pursuing the agenda he promised six years ago.


The President will wear out his veto pen  if the GOP controls the Senate but GOP Senate will not have enough seats to override it.  The House is stuck in a role of continued obstructionism, as predictions are the GOP will still hold its majority.


The state of Colorado is not immune to any of this.
Colorado governors have four year terms.   For the next four years the Colorado Governor will be  faced with using vetoes or cheerleadership over a most likely Democratic controlled  state legislature (either both or one of the houses) . A governor who cannot compromise or walk a center line as Governor Hickenlooper has done, will just put us into a deadlock funk. His opponent, Bob Beauprez, is running on a platform of trying to overturn  or change any environmental or consumer protection law , rule or regulation that does not favor business interests.   Beauprez is no middle of the roader, nor is he one with compromise in mind.

A version of this column appeared in the Sky Hi Daily news , Oct. 23-24, 2014 www.skyhidailynews.com


Sunday, October 12, 2014

FactChecking the Colorado Senate Race

FactChecking the Colorado Senate Race



This one takes the Senate Campaign in Colorado, Republican Cory Gardner v Mark Udall. Gardner ads come out with a lot of egg on faces.  Read it. Fact Checking.org has not been kind to Udall, but when you put it all together, Gardner ads are twisted.  www.factcheck.org

ACOG Statement on “Personhood” Measures

February 10, 2012

Washington, DC -- The American Congress of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG) is unequivocally opposed to the so-called "personhood" laws or amendments being considered in several states. These measures erode women's basic rights to privacy and bodily integrity; deny women access to the full spectrum of preventive health care including contraception; and undermine the doctor-patient relationship. ACOG firmly believes that science must be at the core of public health policies and medical decision-making that affect the health and life of women.
Like Mississippi's failed "Personhood Amendment" Proposition 26, these misleading and ambiguously worded "personhood" measures substitute ideology for science and represent a grave threat to women's health and reproductive rights that, if passed, would have long-term negative outcomes for our patients, their families, and society. Although the individual wording in these proposed measures varies from state to state, they all attempt to give full legal rights to a fertilized egg by defining "personhood" from the moment of fertilization, before conception (ie, pregnancy/ implantation) has occurred. This would have wide-reaching harmful implications for the practice of medicine and on women's access to contraception, fertility treatments, pregnancy termination, and other essential medical procedures.
These "personhood" proposals, as acknowledged by proponents, would make condoms, natural family planning, and spermicides the only legally allowed forms of birth control. Thus, some of the most effective and reliable forms of contraception, such as oral contraceptives, intrauterine devices (IUDs), and other forms of FDA-approved hormonal contraceptives could be banned in states that adopt "personhood" measures. Women's very lives would be jeopardized if physicians were prohibited from terminating life-threatening ectopic and molar pregnancies. Women who experience pregnancy loss or other negative pregnancy outcomes could be prosecuted in some cases.  
So-called "personhood" measures would have a negative impact on fertility treatments, including in vitro fertilization (IVF), that allow otherwise infertile couples to achieve pregnancy and create their families. Such proposals would also invariably ban embryonic stem cell research, depriving all of society potential lifesaving therapies.

ACOG supports guaranteed access to the full array of clinical and reproductive services appropriate to each individual woman's needs throughout her life. These "personhood" measures must be defeated in the best interest of women's health.  

Saturday, October 11, 2014

Closing arguments: We need a better balance, not the GOP tilt to the right


Reflecting on the 2012 Presidential election, the turning point was GOP candidate Mitt Romney disdaining the 47% as dependent upon government and feeling entitled for the government to care for them.  At the same time Congressman Bob Beauprez, now running for Colorado governor, was recorded dissing the 47% who did not pay taxes, and he defended the same attitude again in 2014.

    .     

Why did 47% hit such a nerve?   So many were hurting from the Great Recession and did not make enough income to pay taxes.  They resented the GOP’s lack of empathy and understanding of the plight of nearly half the country.

Two years later, unemployment has decreased to pre-crash levels and the stock market is robust.  Colorado has the fastest growth in the nation, unemployment below the national level, and is rated among the top four states in the nation to make a living.  However, to make a case for change, GOP attack ads make sure Democrats’ success does not go unpunished, and  Democrats fail to toot their horns enough.

Clearly there are still those who have not felt the recovery trickle down to them, but voters should not be asking whom to blame. They should be asking themselves who is more likely to let them share in recovery going forward.  Since 2008, the only improvement to the struggling middle-class family pocketbooks has been Obamacare, which made their health care affordable  and added 14 years to the life of Medicare.

Congressional Republican obstruction, enforced by government shutdowns, was overcome only by compromises on tax structure and budgets.  Compromise is usually a good thing, but these compromises mostly benefited the top income levels, and income gap has gotten worse.  It would have been worse by another 15% except for the social safety nets, per a recent Stanford University study.  The U.S. has one of the most unequal income distributions in the developed world even after taxes and social welfare policies are taken into account.
The great ideological debate is whether and how much of a role does government have. The GOP is conflicted.  It is determined for the government to tell women whether to control or which control to use for their reproduction, or who can get married, but they oppose the government maintaining current  social services.  Would be libertarians should  also read the preamble to the Constitution again and search key words “insure domestic tranquility” and “promote the general welfare“ to seek legitimacy and responsibility for those roles.

The Great Society, the original safety net, was a response to social unrest fueled by anger with racial and economic inequality in the late 1960s.  The GOP is trying to dismantle it, piece by piece, by weakening food stamps, Medicaid, health care, and fighting raising the minimum wage.  Reform is  always needed to meet  changing times and fix bad practices, but weakening  would only increase the gap between the richer and the middle class and poor.  Income equality is not the answer either, because fuel for ambition needs goals to reach and rewards for efforts.  Long term deficits are indeed a problem, and what we pay for is what we get, but above all we need is better balance, not a greater tilt to the right as the GOP proposes.

A version of this appeared in the www.skyhidailynews.com October 16, 17 2014

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2013/12/19/global-inequality-how-the-u-s-compares/
http://web.stanford.edu/group/scspi/sotu/SOTU_2014_CPI.pdfhttp://www.money-rates.com/research-center/best-states-to-make-a-living/2014-complete-list.htm  andhttp://www.forbes.com/sites/kathryndill/2014/06/09/the-best-and-worst-states-to-make-a-living-in-2014/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rlPWULnF8fg


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rlPWULnF8fg  (Bob Beauprez's 47% moment; 2014)


Over a year ago, I hit the GOP for what they proposed to do regarding the approval of the farm bill: The statistics in it are work repeating.  It addresses the food stamp/ school lunch program importance and limitations and refutes much of the GOPs arguments to reduce the food stamp program.  Many critics from media and religious leaders called this 2013 proposal cruel. It gives an indication of what the GOP would do if they could regarding the safety net.

Also, what it means to live on food stamps and hunger in Grand County was reported in an October  Sky Hi Daily News article October 2, 2014.  http://www.skyhidailynews.com/news/13251520-113/colorado-2014-2013-assistance   It was no picnic.  In a Granby Rotary club presentation of their experiences, one of the participants in the attempt to live on a food stamp and food pantry budget reported that the average recipient is on food stamps for an average of 10 months and usually does so because of loss of a job or divorce or health problems.   

Excerpts from my July 1, 2013 column:
Shame on the conservative members of the House of Representatives for trying to insert into a House farm bill a very cruel provision, to cut the food stamp program by nearly 30%.. Defeat means the cuts will not occur for now.  Democrats and even some Republicans could not support the bill. It died  and rightly so.
All of these cuts would have come when more than 25% of working families in Colorado do not have enough food to meet their basic needs, according to the Census Bureau’s  American Community Survey 2011.
 The House bill would have cut  spending in farm and nutrition programs by nearly $40 billion over the next 10 years nationwide. $20.5 billion  of that total would have come from cuts to the $75 billion food stamp program known as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, SNAP.
Politifact, a respected fact checker of the Tampa Bay Times examined Democrats’ claims  cuts in the House farm bill would leave 2 million people without food stamps and remove 210,000 children from the school breakfast and lunch program. The fact checker concluded that “Ultimately, both numbers go back to the Congressional Budget Office, which is generally seen as impartial. …  We rate the statement Mostly True”
In the debate over the farm bill spanning the past two years,  members of the House who wanted the kill SNAP  dusted off  the same time worn  complaint used to object  to food stamps in years past, that  welfare queens abused the program so can the program..   Times have changed and those old views are  fossils.
 “So make these welfare slackers get a job”, a conservative friend of mine grouched.” Get  yourself  current” , I retorted. Families receiving food stamps  now hold jobs three time more than those who rely solely on welfare benefits according to  a July 2010 report from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorites. That is a significant reversal from 1989 when  only 20% of food stamp recipients held jobs.
Most recipients who can work are working, but their income is so low, they cannot afford enough food and their rent, too.  Cigarettes and alcohol have long been ineligible for food stamp purchase.
So who gets food stamps now? In 2013  most are kids and elderly. Per the US Department of Agriculture which administers the programs,  three-quarters of food stamp recipients are families with children. Nearly half (47 percent) were under age 18 and another 8 percent were age 60 or older. Even in the recession, the numbers of food stamp recipients have not increased.
In the 2012 presidential campaign, some members of the GOP  called for even cutting nutrition and school lunch programs and some of those funds were part of the farm bill cuts.  Who would they hurt?. Of the nutrition programs for the poor (8.7 million recipients), 4.3 million are women with children, 2.2 million with infants. National school lunch programs: 30.5 million kids benefit, per the Department of Agriculture.   

 What is the solution other than federal government programs for those who are concerned. Food banks provided by charitable and church organizations make up some of the difference often on the local level, serving even those  who also  receive food stamps. Think what the size  the need would be if food stamp programs were cut by 30%.


 

Saturday, October 4, 2014

Attack ad against Udall on health care heaps fibs on top of alleged fibs

Once in a while a series of negative and political attack ads are so off base, outrageous, and offensive that they just cannot go unchallenged.  These attack ads are fibs about alleged fibs.  There are such ads running against Mark Udall, Democrat running for Senate, that accuse him of virtually lying about Medicare and insurance premium costs.  In fact, bottom line, no benefits have been removed from Medicare, insurance premiums have not increased but slightly decreased, and Obamacare has extended Medicare’s life.  Yes, some had to find a new insurance plan, but nearly all found another plan that had better benefits than their old one.

How Gardner would vote in the Senate on Obamacare: to repeal, and he has offered no plans to replace, which means if the GOP had its way, millions would be back to scrambling again to change plans and be back to being overcharged, capped, no way to cover preexisting conditions, most would be unable to afford any insurance, and everyone would be SOL if they lost employer insurance.

Some fact-checking: One ad attacks Udall for his support of Obamacare because Udall said Obamacare would strengthen Medicare.  Instead, the ad continues, Obamacare removes over $1,000 plus from seniors' benefits. No traditional Medicare benefits are affected by Obamacare.  Period.  What the attack ads do not disclose is that instead of weakening Medicare, Obamacare has added at least 14 years to its solvency, and Gardner would reverse that.

What is affected is Medicare Advantage, which combines Medicare and supplemental policies.  Insurance companies had been raking in excess profits with Advantage by overcharging and hiking prices above what government Medicare costs.  Those subsidies have been removed and applied to funding health care.

Also what attack ads do not disclose is that Udall’s opponent Gardner consistently has voted in Congress in lockstep with the rest of his GOP caucus to privatize Medicare (premium support) to let seniors under 55 buy private insurance and to give block grants to states to fund it, eliminating Medicare federal  government direct payments to the rest of seniors with no assurance increases would keep up with  future increases in health care costs.  

Another attack ad related to Obamacare is that Udall misleads us about Obamacare reducing the costs of insurance.  While not all of the October rates for Obamacare insurance in all states are in, that has not happened on the average in states with their own exchanges, including Colorado.  A Kaiser Family Foundation report came to that conclusion, though there are variations per state and per plan.

States like Colorado (unlike most red states) also permit Medicaid expansion that reduces having hospitals shoulder unpaid charity bills and then shift costs to premiums of paying customers.  If all states expanded Medicaid as Obamacare permits, a move fought tooth and nail by the GOP, we would all begin to see less cost shifting to all of our premiums nationwide.

A version of this appeared in the Sky Hi Daily News Thursday/Friday 10/9/2014 www.skyhidailynews.com



http://kaiserfamilyfoundation.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/8627-analysis-of-2015-premium-changes1.pdf