Playing for the long term in November 2014

This election, 2014, is much more about the next president than it is about the current one. The longer game will have a far greater impact on our country’s direction than the shorter one.

Our vote this November is  mostly about  what happens post Obama presidency, because those we are electing will influence  a very likely  Supreme Court vacancy filling and legislative deadlocks. Any elected Senator has 6 years to warm a Senate seat.

The future Senate will have the opportunity to decide on whatever this Court punted, from Roe v Wade,  same sex marriage, to affirmative action, to  election finance laws, to health care and the ACA, and the overreach  and unconstitutionality of  actions  either by the President or Congress or various states.

Here is the short term.

This November election appears to be a referendum on a lame duck president as candidates look like they are rerunning  2012.

If the GOP takes  over the Senate , we are on track for a mammoth case of deadlock and stalemate  for two more years, the remainder of the President’s term.

If we fear  the President will become more “imperial”, the only way left for him  to  overcome  stalemate and deadlock  is to issue more executive orders . Court challenges for his orders  will likely be decided after he leaves office.  Since he is term limited,  ticking  off one special interest, party,  or others  will not affect his prospects of re-election.  

President Obama will only be constrained by concern for his “legacy” and so far he has shown little regard for that. He seems to be  doing “what he thinks is right “ or is doggedly  pursuing the agenda he promised six years ago.

The President will wear out his veto pen  if the GOP controls the Senate but GOP Senate will not have enough seats to override it.  The House is stuck in a role of continued obstructionism, as predictions are the GOP will still hold its majority.

The state of Colorado is not immune to any of this.

Colorado governors have four year terms.   For the next four years the Colorado Governor will be  faced with using vetoes or cheerleadership over a most likely Democratic controlled  state legislature (either both or one of the houses) . A governor who cannot compromise or walk a center line as Governor Hickenlooper has done, will just put us into a deadlock funk. His opponent, Bob Beauprez, is running on a platform of trying to overturn  or change any environmental or consumer protection law , rule or regulation that does not favor business interests.   Beauprez is no middle of the roader, nor is he one with compromise in mind.

A version of this column appeared in the Sky Hi Daily news , Oct. 23-24, 2014 www.skyhidailynews.com