Voter motivation 2016 style: Stop _____. You fill in the blank

Given the polling showing  unfavorable views of Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton (slightly less so than Trump) this election is not going to be about voters choosing the better person,  but  making fear of the other side as their motivation to turn out and vote.

What is certain is the uncertainty. Hillary Clinton has never faced a candidate like Trump who has so few scruples and whose issue positions are moving targets. Clinton needs to assume it will be a close race and run like it.  Will there be enough increase in Hispanic and women’s votes against Trump to offset the electoral votes of white males in the rust belt?   Democrats have shown less intensity and turnout than Republicans, even taking into consideration the great Bernie Sanders’ rallies.

 The exception will be Hispanic turnout in key states where they have enough numbers to swing a close election and deliver enough electoral votes to make a difference.  This is a traditionally low turnout demographic, but there Is nothing like Trump’s comments about undocumented, “deport ‘em, call them rapists, and” build the wall”, to increase their number of voters who will view him as hostile to their interests as a group  and to  break up families containing mixed status members. Trump’s cozying up to white supremacists groups will be more than enough to get out the African-American vote. To what extent suburban women will be able to offset white male blue collar voters in the rust belt is seen as a possible plus for Democrats.

Trump’s supporters are angry at both their party establishment and the Democrats they feel who have contributed to their misery  because were left out of a less than vigorous economic recovery from the Great Recession.  The anger factor has reached the level of irrationality. Anger is not a public policy nor, does it seem, do the angry consider negative or self-defeating fallout of any of the “suggestions” Trump promotes.  Trump and his followers simply ignore warnings of negative consequences of a very dangerous foreign policy, retaliatory trade wars endangering jobs of eleven million more workers employed in export industries, their candidate needing a steep learning curve in foreign affairs to be ready to be commander in chief on day one without committing a blunder, and  insensitively dividing the country into blocks of haters.

The angry are also the supporters of Bernie Sanders, and he also appeals to large numbers who are likewise fed up with politics as usual.  Instead of solely promoting his solutions, Sanders has also continued negative attacks on Clinton, tying her to Wall Street, and hitting her judgment, that are now serving as the talking points Donald Trump is using to attack Clinton.    While Sanders admits it is a “hard” path to win the nomination, even with prospects of winning Oregon and Kentucky, he is helping blow one of the greatest chances for a Democratic victory not seen in years. . His redemption will be to convince his supporters that they should oppose Trump over their dead bodies as well as his, and do it with the same enthusiasm and turnout as they did in the primary season.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/americans-distaste-for-both-trump-and-clinton-is-record-breaking/

https://www.yahoo.com/news/democrats-trump-bogeyman-people-vote-101011213.html

Trump: a European style right winger?

Does Donald Trump have an ideology? He has dumfounded the Republican Party, and has accomplished the unthinkable, forged an alliance against him of traditional establishment types, social policy, fiscal, and small government conservatives,  free trader Republicans, and mutual defense strategists.  Trump is all over the map but usually non supportive on their issues, and he is either doubling down or backing off of some and filling in the blanks in none.   Where he has been consistent is reaffirming his anti-immigrant, nationalistic, Muslim ban, trade protectionist campaign. If he does not fit the GOP’s traditional elements that make up their party, that does not mean he has a political philosophy.  He does. We can find his ideological cousins in Europe and some in American history.

Aside from the demographic groups he has alienated with his racist, sexist, and xenophobic remarks or his style of demagoguery and strong man, he has found a sympathetic niche. They are mostly white blue collar males who feel left out of economic recovery from the great recession, those who fear the US will become a country governed by Sharia law or threatened by secret infusion of ISIS terrorists, or are the last gasp of a white male dominated country they see slipping away from them. They are willing to overlook his economic solutions, other than protectionism and infrastructure development.   Trump’s original positions would have provided more tax relief to the rich and he was hostile to raising the minimum wage. This would counter gains in job creation by protectionism and infrastructure funding. (He is since waffling a bit)

He does fit into an ideological slot, however, and we have seen some of it before from George Wallace, to the late 1930’s American Firsters, to Pat Buchanan,  but none of these have risen be within striking distance of the White House.  Most Americans have to be reminded of these movements because since they did not succeed, they have faded from many memories nor they do not see him as resembling a Nazi or a South American dictator.

In our current era,   he most resembles Europe’s extreme right.  These are not social or fiscal conservatives, but hyper- nationalists, ant- immigrant, protectionist drum beaters.   Many attribute the terrorist attacks by militant Muslims from Charlie Hebdo, to Paris, to Belgium, to the failure of Europeans to integrate immigrants into their culture, driving them to ghetto sanctuaries of fellow ethnics where a first generation born person is nurtured and attitudes developed.  Sadly, there is a long tradition in Europe of ethnic conflicts and tribal loyalties which fertilize the roots of these extremists.

San Bernardino was an outlier. The shooters were benefitting from the American economic dream and integrated into the work place. However, they were a two person sleeper cell who came to the US with an agenda, initially radicalized not by ISIS but by the Saudi Salafist clerics  that also gave rise to Al Qaeda and many others.

 The hostility and discrimination toward Muslims is  fueled by these extreme right wing parties such as the  National Front in France led by Marine Le Pen, the Fidesz Party in Hungary, the Freedom Party in Austria, and others in England, Poland, and Sweden.  An encouraging development last week was London electing a Muslim mayor when Muslims are only 12% of the population.

 http://time.com/4075396/far-right-politics-rise-europe/?awc=5160_1462715734_b8e68c431411eb1dfad531cfb69e3e61

http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/publications/analysis-donald-trumps-tax-plan

http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/06/europe/uk-london-mayoral-race-sadiq-khan/

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-cnnn-cuomo-enabler-interview-141213499.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_nationalist_parties_in_Europe#/media/File:Nationalist_parties_in_Europe..

Bernie Sanders pledges to stop Trump. That is an important message to those who felt the Bern.

Buried in Rachel Maddow's interview of Bernie Sanders this past week was a significant statement from Bernie Sanders...that regardless if he does or does not win the nomination, he will do all he can do to defeat Donald Trump. If there is a fear his supporters may flock to Trump should Sanders is not the nominee.. since they share the anger vote, Sanders has a chance to play a significant role in leadership, by raising his voice strongly before November

America First puts American security last

(revision of a prior posting: Trump foreign policy: 1930's retro)

Donald Trump brought forth a serious foreign policy statement that he thinks would make America great again by isolationism, removing it from the leadership of the free world, abandoning or undermining mutual defense alliances, scotching future interventions, and advocating a protectionist trade policy.   His new slogan is” America First’.  But if you read the fine print, it would put America’s security dangerously last in his priority to consolidate his base that believes he speaks the truth, but does not consider the consequences.

‘America First’ is not new. The 1930’s were marked by the oratory of admirers of Nazi Germany, like aviator Charles Lindbergh. His organization, “ America First”, opposed getting involved in Europe as Germany prepared to invade England.

Trump proposes strengthening the military, which was also part of the 1930’s America First concept that if we are strong at home, we would not be attacked. It was wrong then, but it is a mismatch of tactics to current threats. ISIS’ foreign strategy is terrorism carried out by a few with car bombs, pressure cookers, and AK 47’s, fueled by religious fanaticism impervious to bombs and drones. Opposing intervention in foreign conflicts while beefing up the military makes the military threat empty.

 Trump’s speech failed to tell us how he would defeat ISIS and its franchises.  Would it mean massive ground troops he would call something other than an intervention? .Fifteen years later we are still dealing with the aftermath of shock and awe in Iraq and the birth of ISIS..  His reason for being mum?  Keep the enemy and American voters guessing. The danger is needless blunders and miscalculations by enemies

 Our strategy of having Muslim allies fight the war against ISIS for us has been damaged by his anti- Muslim rhetoric and his attempt to bully the Saudis. Or does he plan a deal leaving Syria to Russia?  Would that deal also leave the Baltic states and the rest of the Ukraine to the sphere of influence of Russia, while at the same time weakening or destroying NATO?   His fine print is on  a blank page.

That it is the duty of the President to place American interests first is a given that needs no slogans attached, but it does require skill and use of many arrows in the quiver to be successful, an Obama strategy Trump calls weak.  Trump believes “coherence” is the correct strategic approach: one size should fit all situations while keeping everyone guessing what the size is.  Realty check.  Sometimes it does take forging robust alliances of the willing, not reluctant alliances of the ticked off. Threatening participants with dire consequences can backfire .

Missing from his speech is his prior advocacy of over-turning anti-nuclear proliferation  agreements which would unleash a nuclear arms race with no means to  restrain others from acquiring and using them against us or their other enemies,  a formula for a far more  dangerous world than even the Cold War.

While  the impact of trade agreements on jobs is a legitimate concern, the pain of globalization is now from old treaties and  the economy has changed from the old assembly line to high tech. Re-education and job creation in infrastructure projects could be the balm the under and unemployed rust belters need now instead of starting a trade war.

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Thanks to Rachel Maddow for making historical references to America First on a recent program and to Dana Milbank of the Washington Post for coining the tag :Dangerous Donald

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/dangerous-donald--a-stop-trump

A poster in one of the Baltic states at risk if NATO is weakened or Trump kisses up to Putin Lithuania: https://www.yahoo.com/news/lithuanian-eatery-puts-poster-trump-putin-kiss-115550447--politics.html