Russia's invasion of the Ukraine revives Cold War emotions, but situations are different now. Russia and Putin have more at stake

In the afterglow of Sochi, Pres. Vladimir Putin’s drive to get respect from the world shifted into  reverse as he  invaded Ukraine’s attempt to leave his self defined orbit.  Putin  answered  Western allies’ and Pres. Obama’s offering of a  velvet hand with  a spiked club, invading the Crimea. The US may not consider this reviving the Cold War, but I could not personally suppress  some familiar emotions.

I remember vividly tanks rolling into Hungary in 1956 to crush a revolt.  Dwight Eisenhower was president then and the US did not answer with force.   They recognized  the USSR ‘s sphere; the world had been divided up by negotiation at the end of World War II in Yalta.  While the US had the military power, we did not act because we feared  unleashing   a nuclear World War III.  I was angry with our government’s inaction .   It took years for me to accept  that President Eisenhower was   correct.  

 If  Russia invades the rest of the Ukraine, then we are  in a somewhat similar  kind of  a dilemma with some differences.    The US has made it clear military action  is not on the  West’s table (and nuclear war is certainly not), but  there is understanding of   Russia’s strategic interest in the Crimea. The Ukraine military is in no shape to take on Russia.   In short, Russia is technically  able to invade all of the Ukraine, but it would have to oversee  a very oppressively brutal crackdown after a civil war  and suffer repercussions unlike those  in  the USSR era.

Domestic politics are different than in 1956, too.  Pres. Putin miscalculated in his attempt to bring  the Ukraine further  into his orbit and the revolution handed him a major defeat.  He has supporters  swelling with renewed national pride, his power depends on public support,  and being aggressive offsets this loss .  Pres. Obama  would look like  another Chamberlain or repeating a muddled Syria policy if he did not take off the gloves, though as a lame duck he has much less  politically at stake.

Russia’s economic and diplomatic position in the world is different, too.  Russia is much more entwined with  the West economically .   The West could  threaten  economic sanctions against trade , freeze assets deposited in Western banks, give economic aid to the new Ukraine government, and isolate  Russia diplomatically,  denying their ability to  play a role in international leadership. Whether these measures outweigh  Putin’s need to control the Ukraine is yet to be seen.  NATO ministers Sunday  proposed international monitors to ensure ethnic rights to allow all sides to cool off.

 The new Ukraine  government  overplayed its hand. It   overturned a law giving official recognition to Russian as a second language,  a signal they were not going to respect the rights of the large number of Russian speakers .   The Russian ethnics   felt that their rights and security were endangered, giving  the Russian military a reason to sneak into the Crimea.  This should be a lesson for future “spring” movements anywhere else in the world where there are ethnic or religious  divisions, such as Bosnia. Protection of minority and ethnic rights must be an enforceable and stated goal  of any group aspiring to change a regime  by force or by  the ballot,  or they  lay the groundwork for a shaky future and meddling by outside forces.