More than once domestic and foreign crises have influenced the final outcome of presidential primaries and general elections. An ideal candidate
has to be prepared to deal both domestic and foreign events and can make their
case that their approach would work better, or they have the skills and
experience to avoid blunders that could
make the situation worse.
A few months before the 2008 campaign, the financial sector
and our economy collapsed, boosting the election of Barack Obama. With terrorist attacks on San Bernardino and
Paris, national security and foreign
affairs became the most important and gave rise to Donald Trump’s politics of fear and loathing
of Muslims and immigrants.
Domestic policy credentials are based more on ideology and appeal
to their bases than reality. However, foreign affairs
is reality politics and more like a
chess game than a WWE wrestling match, since
fallout, collateral damage, and history of past mistakes have to be considered. That
takes knowledge, experience and skill to play at that level.
Bernie Sanders has some potential weaknesses in his domestic platform
and zero experience in foreign affairs. He made his gains in advocating a
revolutionary single payer healthcare system and greater income equality.
However, by his own admission, raising taxes even on the middle class would be
necessary to pay for his health plan, and that it would take a change in the
political makeup of Congress as well as campaign finance reform to happen first.
That is pie in the sky in the next four years. They are impossible dreams
guaranteed to give us more years of gridlock. The House, for sure, and probably a Senate will be controlled by the GOP thanks to gerrymandering and that most state houses are occupied by Republican
majorities with their hands on the political machinery. Losing the White House,
too, makes the electability argument critical to preserving Obama’s gains, and
Sanders’ professed socialism will spook moderates needed to win a general
election.
Clinton on the other hand is in a much stronger position on
foreign affairs than she was in 2008. Since then she has served as Secretary of
State and she has a reputation as being the hawkish vote in the Obama
administration debates, which is more in tune with the mood of 2016 than is
Sanders’. On the domestic side she touts
achievable goals as a protector of the Obama legacy on health care and giving
more support to programs directly benefitting the middle class, while opposing
tax increases.
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