Wednesday, April 26, 2017

Trump is losing support of independents thanks mostly to the repeal/replace Obamacare effort

This posting was carried as a column in all editiions ot fhe Sky Hi News, April 27-28, 2017.

 Donald Trump won the electoral vote while losing the popular vote.  His overall approval rating this month is at 40 to 42%, down from his 46% popular vote in 2016.  Polls show now that, while he has kept his base happy, he is losing independent voters mostly over the Obamacare repeal/replace effort.
A Wall Street Journal/NBC  in a mid April  poll found  24-point swing in disapproval of Trump by independent voters versus his disapproval rate  in February.  While President Trump retains support of 96% of his 2016 voters, per an ABC/Washington Post poll, the problem  is that  his base alone is not enough to get him reelected  nor is it enough to give the GOP helpful coattails in  Congressional races in 2018. His leverage over those GOP senators and representatives to support his legislative agenda until then  is weakened, too.  He needs those independent voters  
In the recent Georgia House District 6 and in the recent Kansas election, there has been a 20% swing against the GOP  even in traditional deep  red districts.  While it may not be enough to turn many of those red districts blue, it signals some Republican incumbents in less deeply red districts are vulnerable and are feeling  freer to distance themselves from Trump and his positions.
So far Trump ‘s followers are giving him an A for effort regardless of  limited  success.  They approve of his legislative agenda, his appointee’s approval for the Supreme Court, a saber rattling foreign policy, and use of executive orders.  His draining the swamp promise has been kept, though  limited to purging Obama’s loyalists and leaving  those positions vacant or replacing  them with an invasive species of Wall Streeters and foxes to guard the hen house door pledged  to sabotage the Obama legacy.
So why the swing in the mood of  independent voters?  Per the WSJ poll, “more believe the government should do more to help them.”   Why? Their poll showed the  repeal/replace Obamacare  legislative  fiasco dramatized that Trump had promised to  replace Obamacare with something better but  instead the GOP plan  he backed was harmful to millions and  to them, too. The debate also  reminded  non-ideological independents  that the federal government’s role after could have value to their own  health, life, and family finances.
Only 17%  of all voters now approve of the   GOP plan  that  would have made access to affordable health care  insurance and benefits dramatically worse and would cost them more from their own pockets. Rumors of  compromise details in a plan reboot  reveal improvements could be undone by states.
   
Voters also became better educated about the health insurance issue with the focus of media coverage  on  the Congressional  machinations.   At the beginning of the year, 35% of voters wanted Obamacare repealed but in their ignorance had not realized  their newly acquired ,and about to be lost , affordable insurance obtained  through the ACA and the  exchanges  was the same as Obamacare.  For others, longer experience with the  benefits of the ACA  helped them understand  small government ideology does not pay their medical bills or keep them healthy as well as the ACA (Obamacare)  does. What also helped educate them? Chalk it up to the Resistance and Indivisible movements waving  message signs  while  marching and raising a ruckus  at  legislators’ town halls in red and  blue districts and the media coverage that they generated.








http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/21/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-popular-vote-final-count/

http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/25/politics/trump-harvard-poll-millennials/index.html
Posted by at
Labels: , , ,

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)