Thursday, December 21, 2017

Prediction: Impeachment will be the burning issue in the 2018 Congressional elections

Updated 12/22/17 

A version of this was published in the Sky Hi News Dec 27, 2018

With  a President bent on self preservation in the face of impeachment threats, it is quite possible  that the 2018 Congressional elections will turn into a national referendum on the impeachment of President Trump. The  most serious issue on the table  will be whether President Trump   obstructed  justice or conspired  with Russians to throw the 2016 elections to defeat Hillary Clinton. So far evidence of such” misdeeds  and misdemeanors” have not touched  the President himself, but the investigation has not been completed.  Witnesses are still being interviewed and evidence  is still being collected.  It is even possible the Special Counsel led by Robert Mueller will exonerate him and his family members.

However, revealed last week  that there is  an attempt  by elements in the GOP  House meeting secretly  or by President himself to cripple the investigation by firing Mueller or disbanding the Special Counsel investigation, the ultimate  obstruction of justice. Suddenly in mid December the President and his media and Congressional loyalists  ramped up a “fire Mueller” campaign. It looks like they are expecting bad news from the Mueller investigation  and are making a pre-emptive strike to destroy credibility of any of the Special Counsel  findings.

What has changed from Trump’s confidence that he is clear of any  prosecution?  The person in the best position to know the inner workings of the Trump campaign, transition, and administration, former national security adviser Mike Flynn,  has begun singing like a canary to the Mueller investigators.

This past week  President Trump’s  media and Congressional cohorts launched a coordinated talking point effort to destroy the credibility and impartiality of Special Counsel Robert Mueller  and the FBI.  President Trump claimed the whole  FBI was “in tatters” and “corrupt”  because one FBI agent had texted scorn of him, even though Mueller removed that agent from the investigation last summer. He added this new line to his claim the Special Counsel was on a witch hunt and the investigation was a hoax. This  newest propaganda initiative by Trumpists appears to lay the groundwork to get public approval for  the firing of Mueller or President Trump’s  issuing pardons to any of his family or close friends who are in danger of prosecution .

The humor in the Trumpist charge that the Mueller investigation is " faux "so partisan motivated against Trump "is  in spite of  four indictments and two guilty pleas.  This is the same FBI whose director James Comey disclosed   publicly ten days before the  2016 election that Hillary Clinton’s emails were once again under investigation. while  every  FBI agent   involved was keeping it a dark secret that candidate Trump had been under FBI investigation for his Russian connections all along. Many blame the FBI for Clinton’s loss.

Voters are becoming aware  that it is  the House of Representatives  that initiates the  impeachment process,  an action that is much like an indictment. So long as the House  is in the hands of the GOP majority as is the Senate which needs a 2/3 vote to convict. the only way to break partisan resistance  is to elect enough Democrats to both the Senate and the House.. For that reason, my prediction is  the 2018 Congressional election cycle  mostly will be about whether voters think the President should or should not be impeached. Voters who are also unhappy with Trump's assault on health care affordability, the environment, race relations, civil rights, consumer financial protection, women's rights and respect, and even democracy itself, will join the impeachment movement in a unifying focus.

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