Sober up, Democrats, or say goodbye to your dreams.

Updated 7/15/19

Sober up, Dems. I'll be putting my money in this presidential race on a  candidate with appeal in the key electoral states Democrats need to win or liberals can say goodbye to their dreams. What is becoming clear is that the Democrat's winning nominee must appeal to both blue-collar midwest and high African American turn out or Donald Trump will get his second term. What is at stake for Democrats and possible swing voters are policies fundamental to Democrats and independents. Should Trump gain a second term, it is bye, bye Roe v Wade as the Supreme Court gets more anti-Rove v Wade justices. A Trump second term would place in control more energy lobbyists and executives sabotaging climate change green goals., White nationalism would continue undermining meaningful protection of civil and minority voters rights. It means a veto pen in the White House sinking health care insurance, any expansion, more sabotage, if not completely ending any federal program like Obamacare. Trump's record is to kill affordable health care for millions of citizens and neither he nor the GOP has any feasible plan for a replacement. Democrats can quibble over totally replacing Obamacare with Medicare for All or making Medicare a public option and in debates lose any chance at either being implemented if they lose the electoral college vote.

The horse race White House winner is not determined by who gets the most popular votes. If we learned anything from 2016, Democrats won that race but they lost because of the electoral college that weights votes by each state in favor of smaller populated states and against mammoth blue New York and California. So far, the start of this presidential election cycle shows some hope for Democrats to win both the popular vote horse race and the electoral college vote. but it is not only early,  it is also marginal and iffy. In any recent popularity polls, Donald Trump has held onto his base of 42 to 44% losing to several leading Democratic contenders, but he has not expanded it, even with his job approval at 45 to 47%. Recent polls of demographic blocks, issues such as health care and immigration, swing states, and relative position of Democratic aspirants for their party's nomination provide a snapshot of where the race stands today, but as we have seen in these days of modern communication. much can happen quickly to change public opinion.

Early in the election cycle Joe Biden has shown the ability to appeal to win both key demographics and flip some states from red to blue, yet some of Democrats barking at his heels in the announced field have tried to take him down. Democrats should be wary of a circular firing squad of candidates attacking fellow aspirants to boost their own chances. Those lines of attacks could be used by the GOP to defeat them in a general election.

From a July 8 Washington Post email : The economy is the only major issue on which a majority of people approves of how Trump is doing. On foreign policy, it’s 40 percent. On taxes — remember, Republicans passed a tax bill in 2017 to try to get good marks here — it’s 42 percent. On health care — a potent issue Democrats championed to help them win back the House of Representatives last year — it’s 38 percent.

Voters would choose Trump over a socialist

Match-ups between Trump and most 2020 candidates are dead even (except for former vice president Joe Biden, who beats Trump by 10 points among registered voters in this poll). But the pendulum swings clearly toward Trump when voters are asked to choose between Trump and a “socialist." Trump is suddenly decisively ahead.

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Where the race stands now

In June, some polls show Biden beating Trump is key states Trump carried in 2016, including Wisconsin, Ohio, and Michigan, as well as Florida, North Carolina and Arizona. A major portion of the Democratic party is the African American vote. Their turnout and enthusiasm are key to determining who becomes the Democratic candidate.

After the first debate, Kamala Harris attacked Biden on not being favorable enough of busing a decades ago as a way to try to paint him as a person not supportive of the Black community. This worked to her advantage and Biden was caught off guard and fumbled the answer. He took a hit in his polls but maintained his lead and support in the African American community.

As of July 13, Biden maintained a 20 point lead among African American voters in spite of Harris' strategy. Biden's 40 years in high profile public office is less a bane and more of a boon when it comes to appealing to the Black community. Not only does he have a record of defending civil rights on many more issues, but he also served as vice president with Barack Obama, America's first African American president, who trusted him explicitly. He is a known quantity which makes Harris' attacks less effective. Biden's track record is a safe one based on years of trust. Harris, African American/Asian, has been under fire for past support of law enforcement issues opposed by African Americans when she was attorney general of California. Her debate strategy of attacking Biden on busing was a breakout moment for her, showing her political acumen and her debate skills that could take on Trump, moving her up the polling ladder.

Trump and the GOP are banking on the white nationalist elements of their base. To solidify that support, they are launching extreme anti-immigrant and anti-minority policies, hyping fears of a large swath of voters, facing a future where whites will be a minority of voters. This month, Trump announced policies and actions to maintain his hate and fear bonafides, including ICE raids, Vice President Pence visited scary looking male migrants crammed into chain linked holding pens being treated badly. Pence did not visit the facilities housing children separated from parents. Trump announced he is planning to remove the ability of asylum seekers to reach US borders. by forcing them to remain in Mexico. He failed in his attempt to get a citizenship question on the 2020 census form as the SupremeCourt ruled against him, but his effort should at least keep his base happy. Trump media is attempting to paint four women Representatives of color who are outspokenly left of the rest of the Democratic caucus, as representative of all Democratic candidates, sending them "back" to where they came from. , The GOP is also attempting to brand all Democrats as being for open borders in spite of a difference among candidates on the issue of criminalization or decriminalization of undocumented migrants. or plans to secure and improve the immigration system. This may work for Trump, but Biden's 40-year history makes that a hard sell as an older white man with a known history and a reservoir of trust as a rational, thoughtful, public servant.

On health care, Biden has carved out the most moderate approach of the top four, whose position was announced July 13 as keeping Obamacare but providing a buy-in to Medicare, while permitting those who like their private, union, or employer-provided insurance to keep it. Advocates of the more extreme version of Medicare for All would do away with private insurance (except for supplementals) and move consumers into a single payer plan. The GOP's obvious strategy is to scare consumers away from any Democratic by charging them as socialists. Polls show that tagging any candidate as a socialist is a very effective strategy, with Trump beating any candidate branded with that term, fair or not. The tag of "socialism" is especially toxic to Democrats in swing states per an Axios poll. Biden's 40-year record makes sticking him with "socialist" a hard sell.

Obamacare was originally designed to have a public option, government-provided insurance plans like Medicare or one offered to federal employees, to provide competition that would force private insurers to become cheaper. Biden's plan for prescription drugs would be to permit Medicare to bargain with drug companies for the best price. Currently, drug companies and Medicare and Medicaid are forbidden by law to bargain, permitting drug companies to continue to gouge consumers with their own price setting. Biden would also allow consumers to get their prescriptions from providers abroad, giving US drug companies competition they do not have now. Both Sanders and Warren would eliminate private and employer insurance for a Medicare for All plan for everyone, a single payer system more like the Canadian model. Harris has supported legislation of both approaches, the public option, and the Sanders/Warren approach..

From a July 8 Washington Post email : The economy is the only major issue on which a majority of people approves of how Trump is doing. On foreign policy, it’s 40 percent. On taxes — remember, Republicans passed a tax bill in 2017 to try to get good marks here — it’s 42 percent. On health care — a potent issue Democrats championed to help them win back the House of Representatives last year — it’s 38 percent.

Voters would choose Trump over a socialist

Match-ups between Trump and most 2020 candidates are dead even (except for former vice president Joe Biden, who beats Trump by 10 points among registered voters in this poll). But the pendulum swings clearly toward Trump when voters are asked to choose between Trump and a “socialist." Trump is suddenly decisively ahead.

 https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/13/politics/joe-biden-leads-with-black-voters-analysis/index.html

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/trump-trails-biden-warren-sanders-new-nbc-news-wall-street-n1029646

https://www.axios.com/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-poll-democrats-2020-aeaa3771-f142-4059-b79e-1fed569dfdf9.html

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/451263-nixing-private-insurance-divides-medicare-for-all-candidates

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/15/biden-unveils-health-care-plan-to-expand-obamacare-hits-medicare-for-all.html

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2019/07/15/donald-trump-says-house-democrats-he-insulted-should-apologize/1732314001/?csp=chromepush

POLITICO.COM

Biden invokes Obama to defend his civil rights record

The former vice president delivered a fiery response after Kamala Harris 
attacked his past stance on busing.