And the winner in November, 2020, will be…..
A reality check is needed before the prediction: Trump’s economy is strong. It cannot be denied. Trump’s character is his greatest weakness. In between those poles are some of Trump’s weaknesses and secondary strengths. He governs by fear and hate, and he channels many who feel likewise. .He sees himself as a vengeful power, punishing all who do not bow down. He favors the rich and the ones personally loyal to him. https://markets.businessinsider.com/…/9-charts-comparing-tr…
Trump deserves credit for continuing the Obama recovery from the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. However, economic growth has fallen short of the 4% per year needed to pay for the tax breaks for the wealthy, resulting in eye-popping debt.His job approval RealClear Politics most recent average is in the mid-'40s percentile. . The Democratic candidate who can reassure they will not mess up the trend while still getting rid of Trump will have a leg up for the nomination and in November. (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html There are some warning flags flying, however. Only a third of the voters feel they are better off than before he became president ( https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/468802-majority-says-they-are-not-better-off-under-trump-poll ). A more recent Gallup poll shows exactly the reverse, but the results were also very partisan. Republicans said they were; Democrats said they were not. https://news.gallup.com/poll/285593/say-better-off-past-elections.aspx At the same time, Trump's job approval rating is still below 50% yet most of the nation feels we are on the wrong track per https://apnews.com/863dbb1db71948e5801b990fb1f73e3e ) as of January 29. (near the end of the impeachment process.) . "Meanwhile, 70 percent say America is headed the wrong way. That’s up from 59 percent in December, with the percentage of those saying the country is on the wrong track now at its highest point in about a year.A majority of Americans, 52 percent, also believe things are going to get worse over the next year. .While Democrats are far more likely than Republicans to feel negative about the direction of the country, even Republican pessimism is on the rise. The poll found 55 percent of Republicans and just 9 percent of Democrats think the country is headed in the right direction. A month ago, 69 percent of Republicans and 16 percent of Democrats said the same.."
There is a sense of pessimistic hopelessness in spite of the economy and Democrats have not yet found a way or a candidate to address the distress many more are feeling.
Democrats will have to have a message that both promises they will not rock the economic boat but improve it by getting more to the middle class than just hope and promises. Voters want their cake of economic gains and to eat it, too, without gritting their teeth at the President's tweets and impromptu grievance airing. The Democrat who can convince voters they can be trusted to make a good faith effort and have the ability to deliver both will win in November.
If the Democrats want to keep Trump from his second term, they are going to have to do more than just run on a platform of dump Trump. Democrats have tried that for the past three years. Granted, we used to have a country for which our nation was founded: a more perfect union, to provide for the common defense and to promote our general welfare. We have a president who promotes division, not unity, who invites foreign powers to influence how we vote, and who promotes his own welfare above our national security. However, Democrats will not be able to run on a solo platform of hate and fear of four more years, though those may be the most powerful motivators. Fighting hate with hate only adds to divisions that threaten our stability. Democrats also cannot just run on a platform of providing a check to balance off Trump’s excesses. That will depend on turning the Senate blue and keeping the House majority if Trump gets s second term.. That gets Democrats a little better than the status quo at best.
Trump’s rising tide has not lifted all boats. That is his weakness. Democrats need to run on pragmatic and doable plans that iron out the problems most Americans have that are keeping them feeling insecure and sensing we are on the wrong track. They do not want to wipe out the economic gains of full employment; they want to continue the upward economic trendlines of the past ten years. They do see the wage gains being eaten up by increased costs of living and debt and fear they will lose what gains they have experienced. The holes that need to be filled are health care security, higher education and lower student debt, a home they can afford, either as renters or owners, and air they can breathe and water they can drink. They are not looking for a revolution or a chicken in every pot. They are just looking for a chance of current and future prosperity for their families and their children. They know their children and they are enduring a diminished standard of living, that what they once could afford, they cannot have now and they know their children are seeing an even dimmer future. It is not a question of class warfare. It is a simple fact that the rich have become richer as they have become poorer and to pay for the services they want the government to provide, rolling back the excessive Trump tax cuts to the wealthy is a matter of pragmatic payfors.
This is not a radical platform. It is a moderate one, based on reality, and it aims to appeal to the middle class that is feeling insecure but also wants to return to American values we once honored: the freedom to lead our lives without fear of hateful repercussions and freeing us of jarred nerves of leaders who violate our own moral and behavioral standards. There are many who still want a government that puts the good of the country first instead of one existing for the benefit of a president whose goal is for one half of it to swear allegiance to him, whether out of fear or love and whose base he views as useful and necessary to maintain his own hold on power.