What is world leadership and Trump's bad start to be a world leader.

So much is what is your definition of a world leader? One who cuts and runs and leaves the field to others or one who provided the leadership to assemble many countries to meet a common goal?  In the first couple of weeks, Trump has managed to try to bully Australia, Germany, Mexico and  put the English PM in trouble back home, and  ticking off others  with the Muslim ban by another name as a way to achieve foreign policy goals.  This may be his making of a deal, but the deal it has raised has been bad will, a great deal of it.



In response to a facebook posting, a reader responded: "After the debacle of 8 years of Obama, it will be very difficult to re-establish our role as world leader. Obama virtually did away with NATO, totaled screwed up the situation in Syria, botched the Crimean problem and drove a dagger in the heart of Israel. How's that, for world leadership?"


My response: "He declares NATO obsolete as a mutual defense pact, wants to lift sanctions against Russian encroachments in Crimea and Ukraine, sanctions that Obama negotiated, Leaves the TPP, action that will only enhance Chinese trade and influence in SE Asia, a treaty which Obama negotiated; wants Russia to take over the Syrian war and thereby strengthening Iran's hand; ..How is all of this making the US a world leader? It is simply leaving the world with a vacuum to be filled by Russians and China. "    That is not world leadership by any definition.

World leadership is also not delivering muddled messages.  Recently the Trump administration announced "it was putting Iran on notice" after a ballistic missile test.  Does that mean throwing out the Iran nuclear deal as Trump proposed in his campaign, or keeping it and making Iran stick to the agreement?   

It is also issuing executive orders that result in chaos and misunderstandings with the enforcers. Incompetence was the case in the recent order to halt incoming people even with legal entry who come from the seven Muslim countries.
It  may not only be poor leadership and an inconceived, messy , confusing rollout, but also may be unconstitutional. A Seattle federal court issued a restraining order, halting the ban from the seven Muslim countries on the basis that it was not issued on the basis of fact since none of the acts of terror committed on US soil were by anyone from those countries and noted that where the 9/11 terrorists came from, used to justify the ban,  was from Saudi Arabia, not on the ban list. Others have  observed that the Muslim countries escaping the ban list were those in which the Trump organization had business interests.

The fallout from these first few weeks in office indicate trouble down the road as Trump tries to reshape US foreign policy.  If the US sees it in its national interest to get involved militarily,  by ticking off  our closest allies, we could , be on our own, meaning it will be our blood and treasure alone that will be on the line.  

There is also a nagging fear that Trump could use such a military adventure for domestic political reasons if he needs to increase his favorable ratings  Right now, 53% of Americans disapprove of his handling the office since he was sworn in.  44% approve.  Those are historically low ratings for the beginning of an administration.  One thing we know about TV star Trump is that he relishes his ratings above all and that he would take action to boost them is not out of the realm of possibility.   

Bernie Sanders, speaking in Arlington Virginia recently, as reported by Yahoo News, expressed a fear I have heard from others personally around me.  The question is what leadership position would a Trump take if he finds his poll numbers falling and the rest of the world refusing to take his lead?  We have seen this movie again and again over history:  start a war so everyone rallies around the flag (i.e.Trump).   Said Sanders, "ARLINGTON, Va. — Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, speaking at a conference on the “Politics of Love” Thursday evening, said he feared that President Trump would plunge the nation into war.

“This is one of the things that scares me most: For a demagogue to succeed, they need to cultivate hatred. Now the hatred may be against immigrants — we’re all supposed to hate immigrants, and maybe it’s other minorities, African-Americans, Latinos,” Sanders said. “But also I worry that the hatred will spill over to foreign affairs, and that we are maybe entering into a situation where a Trump needs a war — and war and war — to rally public support.”

http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/03/politics/donald-trump-approval-rating/index.html?sr=fblead0203trumppoll

re: incompetence in the "Muslim" ban order process:     https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQCrSPXujwU&utm_

https://www.yahoo.com/news/seattle-judge-blocks-trump-immigration-order-000739102.html

https://www.aol.com/article/news/2017/01/29/trump-s-muslim-ban-excludes-muslim-countries-linked-to-his-busin/21702521/

http://www.denverpost.com/2017/01/27/is-trump-abandoning-americas-role-as-a-world-leader/

The law of unintended consequences: ending TPP

Pres. Trump withdrawing from the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) may be popular domestically but it may have long term damage to our national security.

The law of unintended consequences is at work here. In fact, this law could apply to the Trump administration's blow up of multi national treaties, from Europe to Asia. It opens the door for our allies to seek trade agreements with China or to go it alone and ignore the US. Power vacuums get filled, either by China or Russia, and countries going it alone means US will lose its leadership and the ability to shape world affairs in American security and economic interests.

From my blog posting August 25, 2016; "However, the New York Times digging around found that Donald Trump’s pronouncement  on foreign affairs issues show a connection to his business dealings.  He owes the Bank of China and Goldman Sachs in his finance dealings and his goals and business dealings with Russia are no secret now.  Trump’s  anti Southeast (TPP) trade agreement) positions may be a problem, too.  
Opposing the TPP may be a lure  for the Midwest belt  voters lying in rust with job killing globalization, but the TPP was also promoted to strengthen allies in Southeast Asia against Chines expansionism in the region.  His bromance of mutual flattery and echoing Russia’s President Putin’s  declaring NATO was obsolete, Russia did not grab eastern Ukraine  or that his reliance on debts to Wall street is indeed has a  suspicious connection to this business dealings. In these cases, there is fire of policy positions within the fog of smoke."

http://www.cnn.com/2017/01/26/politics/trump-nafta-tpp/index.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/21/us/politics/donald-trump-debt.html?_r=0

Smoke and fire in the 2016 presidential race. Hillary's mostly smoke; Trump's smoke has some fire

The stench of smoke has settled over this race to the White House.  Whether it means there is fire that is causing it is a matter of perception, the public’s definition of fire,  and finding evidence of a connection that indeed influences action that changes policy.

The low approval ratings reflected in polls of both major candidates are evidence that voters are not deaf and blind.  Even polls show that what is motivating voters to support one or the other is revulsion

 and dislike of  the opposing party candidate.  Clouds of smoke that hang over the race is as good as fire fueling voter preferences.  Recent news and investigative reporting have only added to the stink  of the smoke. Perception is more important than reality as a factor that influences public opinion. Smoke counts. Less important in the public’s eye is whether there is fire there.

 Thanks to  Colorado pollster and astute political observer Floyd Ciruli who recently concluded that Colorado is no longer in the toss up category as it is turning ever darker shades of bue in the electoral college map.  He drew heavily on a recent Quinnipiac  poll that partisan dislike of the opposition candidate is what is motivating voter preferences, not the positive love a candidate. The search for viable alternatives as a way out is anemic. So far the Libertarian Party has not polled higher than around 8% on the average and the Green Party is far behind as a third party choice.

 While a strong case can be made that taken all together, Benghazi, Hillary Clinton’s private email server, and the appearance of pay to play in the Clinton relationship to their family foundation makes it appear that Clinton is greedy and self promoting , truth  stretching, defensive  tail covering. However none  of those  issues have shown that policy resulted that rise to  the fire of illegal activity or influenced policy.. She appeared after innumerable Congressional hearings to be at arms length  with policies that resulted in the death of an ambassador in Benghazi.  The FBI investigation could not prove that she intentionally sent emails that had classified information. So far, even the Associated Press in their excellent reporting could not find that there was evidence national policy  changes resulted from giving access to non governmental connected foreign and domestic Foundation donors.. Nonetheless, the smell lingers.  The only way out of the stink is to close down the Foundation now and turn over its resources and administration of humanitarian aid to the Bill  Gates Foundation that has the capacity and similar philosophy to carry on.  It is not a matter of admitting wrong doing to shutter the Foundation;  it the most effective way  to remove the perception of wrong doing.

However, the New York Times digging around found that Donald Trump’s pronouncement  on foreign affairs issues show a connection to his business dealings.  He owes the Bank of China and Goldman Sachs in his finance dealings and his goals and business dealings with Russia are no secret now.  Trump’s  anti Southeast (TPP) trade agreement) positions may be a problem, too.  

Opposing the TPP may be a lure  for the Midwest belt  voters lying in rust with job killing globalization, but the TPP was also promoted to strengthen allies in Southeast Asia against Chines expansionism in the region.  His bromance of mutual flattery and echoing Russia’s President Putin’s  declaring NATO was obsolete, Russia did not grab eastern Ukraine  or that his reliance on debts to Wall street is indeed has a  suspicious connection to this business dealings. In these cases, there is fire of policy positions within the fog of smoke.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/01/26/politics/trump-nafta-tpp/index.html

http://time.com/4433880/donald-trump-ties-to-russia/

http://fciruli.blogspot.com/2016/08/colorado-now-considered-part-of.html

https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2373