Thursday, August 25, 2016

Smoke and fire in the 2016 presidential race. Hillary's mostly smoke; Trump's smoke has some fire


The stench of smoke has settled over this race to the White House.  Whether it means there is fire that is causing it is a matter of perception, the public’s definition of fire,  and finding evidence of a connection that indeed influences action that changes policy.



The low approval ratings reflected in polls of both major candidates are evidence that voters are not deaf and blind.  Even polls show that what is motivating voters to support one or the other is revulsion

 and dislike of  the opposing party candidate.  Clouds of smoke that hang over the race is as good as fire fueling voter preferences.  Recent news and investigative reporting have only added to the stink  of the smoke. Perception is more important than reality as a factor that influences public opinion. Smoke counts. Less important in the public’s eye is whether there is fire there.



 Thanks to  Colorado pollster and astute political observer Floyd Ciruli who recently concluded that Colorado is no longer in the toss up category as it is turning ever darker shades of bue in the electoral college map.  He drew heavily on a recent Quinnipiac  poll that partisan dislike of the opposition candidate is what is motivating voter preferences, not the positive love a candidate. The search for viable alternatives as a way out is anemic. So far the Libertarian Party has not polled higher than around 8% on the average and the Green Party is far behind as a third party choice.



 While a strong case can be made that taken all together, Benghazi, Hillary Clinton’s private email server, and the appearance of pay to play in the Clinton relationship to their family foundation makes it appear that Clinton is greedy and self promoting , truth  stretching, defensive  tail covering. However none  of those  issues have shown that policy resulted that rise to  the fire of illegal activity or influenced policy.. She appeared after innumerable Congressional hearings to be at arms length  with policies that resulted in the death of an ambassador in Benghazi.  The FBI investigation could not prove that she intentionally sent emails that had classified information. So far, even the Associated Press in their excellent reporting could not find that there was evidence national policy  changes resulted from giving access to non governmental connected foreign and domestic Foundation donors.. Nonetheless, the smell lingers.  The only way out of the stink is to close down the Foundation now and turn over its resources and administration of humanitarian aid to the Bill  Gates Foundation that has the capacity and similar philosophy to carry on.  It is not a matter of admitting wrong doing to shutter the Foundation;  it the most effective way  to remove the perception of wrong doing.



However, the New York Times digging around found that Donald Trump’s pronouncement  on foreign affairs issues show a connection to his business dealings.  He owes the Bank of China and Goldman Sachs in his finance dealings and his goals and business dealings with Russia are no secret now.  Trump’s  anti Southeast (TPP) trade agreement) positions may be a problem, too.  
Opposing the TPP may be a lure  for the Midwest belt  voters lying in rust with job killing globalization, but the TPP was also promoted to strengthen allies in Southeast Asia against Chines expansionism in the region.  His bromance of mutual flattery and echoing Russia’s President Putin’s  declaring NATO was obsolete, Russia did not grab eastern Ukraine  or that his reliance on debts to Wall street is indeed has a  suspicious connection to this business dealings. In these cases, there is fire of policy positions within the fog of smoke.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/01/26/politics/trump-nafta-tpp/index.html













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