The challenge of explaining Trump to foreigners
I was in Europe during the US political conventions, but thanks to You
Tube, Yahoo News and the online reporting, I still followed the events,
speeches, and spins via internet. I
thought only I was glued to the news, but I found so was everyone I encountered
in Europe, from taxi drivers, wait staff, relatives, business associates, and
friends, from all corners of Europe,
including Sweden, Belgium, Austria, Croatia.
They could not wait to ask me about what I thought of Donald
Trump, and with nearly universal angst, asked,” you don’t think he will win, do
you? “ A recent Pew poll showed only 9% of Europeans favorably viewed Trump (Clinton rated 59% favorable). Many quoted back to me the most recent polling
and wondered how 40% of Americans could even support him. Terms I heard were ” he is a clown, but it
would be funny if it were not so serious “ , fearing repercussions for their
own countries since “whatever happens in the US affects us”. Another said “if Trump wins, all of Europe will
boycott the USA”. While all were facing similar movements in their own
countries of anti immigration, especially alarmed with the flood of Syrian
refugee, mass killings by jihadists, or complaining about their countries’ economic standing, they seemed to focus on his temperament and
ignorance more than they connected him to the ideology of the resurgence of
their right wingers. I did say I thought
Trump’s rise had similarities with those movements because of the anti
immigration issues and economic malaise he had tapped. The mood of his base is similar to those who
voted for Brexit, the United Kingdom’s popular vote this spring resulting the
that country’s exit from the European Union.
So how did I answer? I would make no predictions, though
post conventions polls show significant gains for Hillary Clinton. This election is like none I ever
experienced. It has reached the level of irrationality. Facts and
position papers on issues seem not to matter. Utterances by Trump are
geared to reflect the preconceived notions of his ardent base, allowing him to get away
with comments that would have
disqualified others in traditional races before. For many, Trump agrees with them
so what he says must be true, ignoring independent fact checkers This race has devolved into a
contest between who is the biggest liar and who has the right temperament.
The other factor causing uncertainty.is minority parties playing an unusual role in
this year’s campaign because the nominees of
the two dominating parties are both viewed negatively by so many.. It is
not yet settled how many in the GOP would vote for a libertarian and how many
Bernie Sanders supporters would vote Green. It is highly likely the person
elected President in November will not
have 50 plus 1% of the vote.
I had a challenge
explaining how the electoral college works,
how this differs from European multi party elections, and why third
parties could rarely win in the US. States
set their own rules and most award winner take all electoral college votes to the one with the largest popular vote and they
set rules making it difficult to get on the ballot in all 50 states. However,
the minor parties could still influence the outcome by diverting votes
from either major candidate, splitting
off votes that would have otherwise gone to that candidate in prior years.
For those who would like an fascinating analysis of Trump supporters, read http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/08/05/washington_post_david_ignatius_facts_dont_matter_to_trump_supporters.html
http://www.pewglobal.org/2016/06/29/as-obama-years-draw-to-close-president-and-u-s-seen-favorably-in-europe-and-asia/
http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/29/politics/pew-poll-obama-trump-clinton/index.html
The following was a much more indepth analysis of Trump supporters. They may be actually not in economic distress themselves, but worry about their kid's future. They live in neighborhoods which have a record of inhabitants being more unhealthy than others and they have little contact with immigrants themselves. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/08/12/a-massive-new-study-debunks-a-widespread-theory-for-donald-trumps-success/
The following was a much more indepth analysis of Trump supporters. They may be actually not in economic distress themselves, but worry about their kid's future. They live in neighborhoods which have a record of inhabitants being more unhealthy than others and they have little contact with immigrants themselves. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/08/12/a-massive-new-study-debunks-a-widespread-theory-for-donald-trumps-success/
No comments:
Post a Comment