While waiting for the breakdown of who voted for whom
yesterday, there are some broad, initial observations:
It was an election of demographics and get out the vote
techniques. Verification of some early
pundit analyses and exit polls will await pollsters and political scientists
combing through election night results. Nonetheless, here are some probable
factors that led to Obama’s victory that leap out at us the morning after.
Per exit polls, the Latino vote that once went 40% to
Republicans went over 70% to Democrats and their absolute numbers
increased. It was particularly evident
in Florida where the non-Cuban vote turned out in strength, and the Latino turnout
played a role in turning Virginia and Nevada blue. The Colorado Latino vote is as yet not
analyzed, but was a likely a factor in Colorado’s keeping its trend of the past
couple of years of turning from red and purple to blue.
It was not so much
that Obama won the Latino vote as the GOP lost it. True, Latinos were disappointed that the President
had not put immigration reform on his priority list. Obama did partially offset the disappointment by administrative edicts putting into effect the Dream Act and on resetting the deportation
policy to give priority to deporting criminals, giving the law abiding, undocumented some breathing room.
However, Republicans
in the primary and in state legislatures like Colorado had shown hostility
toward those not liked them, especially opposing a path to citizenship for
Latinos with venom calling it “amnesty”. Hispanics took it as inferring all illegals
were criminals. Romney promoted supporting policies that were so anti-immigrant
that they would “self deport” to their native homes. The GOP opposition to the
Dream Act was viewed by Hispanics as heartless. Arizona type “show me your
documents” laws added to Latino’s support of Democrats. Romney embraced the Arizona law, stumbled over his
hiring undocumented contractors, and was
unable effectively to shed the
impression he was anti Latino by contending near the end of the campaign that he only supported the e-verify portion part of
the Arizona law, but not the rest.
Even if Republicans
compromise on the “amnesty” position in immigration reform in the next four
years, the bitter taste may linger through future election cycles. History may repeat itself…It possibly may be
like Democrats’ support of civil rights legislation that turned post-civil war
Republican African Americans into dedicated Democrats. It is possible 2012’s
Republican’s legacy will be a loss of Latino votes for some time in the future as the Latino population continues
to increase their percentage of registered voters.
The voter suppression efforts of Republican Secretaries of State
backfired, especially among the African American population who viewed that
action as a continuation of their civil rights’ struggle they should overcome. Cutting
down early voting hours, especially on Sundays, made it harder for the poor and
older African Americans to vote and it resulted in long lines in the few voting
sites. The proof of citizenship based on a government issued ID was a direct
challenge to Hispanic voters, an insulting inference that if a person looked
“Mexican”, that person was probably unqualified to vote. The suppression efforts became a rallying cry
for minorities to turn out to vote. They
had marched before to secure their rights and now they stood in lines for hours.
The gender gap played the most obvious role in the
election of several women to the Senate, defeating their Republican opponents who
had taken extreme positions on women’s health. If the GOP does not take that
evidence seriously and if they continue to claim that the women’s vote was only
motivated by the economy, they are fooling themselves in most instances. There
is an exception. Elizabeth Warren’s
victory in Massachusetts was owed not so much to the gap, but to a Senate seat
returning to its Democratic roots and her populist, popular pro consumer
positions on issues, especially Wall Street Reform. However, Massachusetts has been known to be
hostile to female candidates in the past so that Warren’s victory could be seen
as an increased acceptance of women politicians in that state.
The Ohio voter results ran contrary to the gender gap
argument, too, as Obama increased his margins in the auto manufacturing
centers, per Chuck Todd on MSNBC this AM.
White working class men in the Midwest voted for Obama at a higher rate
than that same demographic in the rest of the country. This was the fallout
from Romney’s unfortunate letter a couple of years ago to the New York Times
and doubling down on his position in 2012…to let the auto industry go
bankrupt. He could never shake it. The
nail in the coffin appeared to be his Hail Mary attempt to claim that Jeep jobs
were going to China, when it was called a lie by everyone more informed, even
auto manufacturing executives, and then continuing to run the ad even after that.
It exposed him as willing to promote a known lie if it served his purpose. It
was a comment on his character, a verification of what many had suspected or
charged him with earlier, his willingness to stretch the truth or to say
whatever was necessary to get elected.
Youth? Comments heard
on TV this morning indicate that in Colorado the young voters turned out for Obama
even at a higher rate than in 2008 so that the apathy that conservative pundits
had touted was their wishful thinking.
No doubt the winning ballot issue in Colorado, legalization of pot,
motivated more youth than usual to go to the polls.
Fox pundits who contend that Romney lost the race solely because
Superstorm Sandy stopped his momentum are also fooling themselves. It may have
been a factor, but it was not the determining or the only one. Obama was in
peril; he could have fumbled the response to the storm and he did not. New Jersey’s Republican Governor Chris
Christie’s heartfelt expressions of gratitude and praise of Obama accomplished
one thing if indeed Sandy was a factor: it showed Obama and a Romney supporter
could come together and put politics aside…a wish shared by so many of us. It also gave an opportunity for Obama to
correct the impression the GOP tried to spread that Obama was a weak leader so it repaired some of the damage Obama did to himself in that first
debate. However, for those in the Midwest and in the West, Sandy did not have
the impact as much as did demographics and policies that were preferred by the
middle class. Many had voted before
Sandy happened and the polls showed basic consistency on the issues and
attitudes that persisted through Tuesday.
Going forward is a topic that deserves some serious
attention, and a future column will be devoted to the subject.
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