How the Democrats could beat the GOP at the Mediscare game

What the Florida special election this week shows is that if last minute ads flood the screens that scare the dickens of an important segment of the electorate with distortions and innuendos, or outright lies, it is possible to beat an opponent, especially when last minute timing gives an opponent  no chance to refute.        It is a political technique as old as democracy and made possible by
 unbridled millions able to be poured into a district by outside groups in these days of permissive election laws. Here is how the Democrats could beat the GOP at the Mediscare game.

Democrat Alex Sink lost by 2% to  David Jolly the Republican  protoge of the  member of the House of Representatives whose death left the seat open in a district around Clearwater, Florida.  The district had voted for the GOP in House races  over the past 40 years, though Pres. Obama had carried it in 2008 and 2012. It is  a district that is heavily populated by seniors.

There are some lessons for Democrats and it was considered a test case for how Democrats in swing states could win.  It turned out to be  more of an example of how Democrats could be beaten. Especially vulnerable in Louisiana  is Sen. Mary Landrieu. The more the GOP can tie her to Obamacare and Medicare, the more successful they will be....especially if they wait until  the last minute of the campaign.

The GOP  message used in the final days of the Sink-Jolly campaign was credited for turning the election from a possible win by Swink to a squeaker win by  Jolly. $5 million dollars flooded from outside money to convey the message.  The ad hit an issue hard: "To pay for Obamacare, Washington is forcing seniors to endure deep cuts to Medicare Advantage".

 The term "deep cuts" is the frightening term.  If 1.9% cut in the program is deep, then your definition is different than mine.
For a senior (and I am one of them on Medicare Advantage), this gets your attention. If you are not listening closely and think this will cause "deep cuts" to Medicare, it would turn your hair whiter. If you do not realize you are one of  the majority not on Medicare Advantage, then you might think Obamacare is going to hurt you deeply. The New Orleans Times Picayune estimates that only 26 % of those on Medicare have Medicare Advantage in Mississipi..

Not everyone is on Medicare Advantage, a program that combines Medicare and Medigap insurance with some gym memberships and is a little cheaper than Medigap supplementals because it limits a person's choice of providers.  (Mine is an employer retiree provided plan and I have a choice of three providers and, yes, my Medicare advantage program premium rose by $30 per month as the change kicked in in 2014; its still a good deal)..

Here is the reality:  About $250 billion of the cuts  is ending the subsidy to private insurers for Medicare Advantage which, strangely enough, is continuing without the subsidy. The private insurers were being paid 17% more to administer Medicare than what the government could do itself….and it resulted in no advantage to improving senior health  outcome  and only  the insurers got the  advantage in bloated federal subsidies. The rest is in cuts to hospitals and providers, but it results in NO, repeat "no", cuts to to Medicare benefits.  In short, money was being wasted on private insurers' overhead and other wastes in benefits provided by the health care industry.

Furthermore, the life of Medicare is extended 12 years by the Obamacare  savings .   For the deficit hawks, Simpson/Bowles Debt Reduction Commission says the cuts are essential to reducing the deficit. Even the Ryan budget proposed a couple of years ago proposed keeping the cuts...only the savings did not go into the health care system as Obamacare requires.

What Landrieu and again Sink must do (the Florida election will be rerun in November)...as well as other Democrats in purple states... is to be ready to anticipate and call out such scare tactics before the last minute barrage  and keep a last minute war chest ready for a quick response. 

The direction Landrieu and other Democrats facing elections in purple states are taking is to just ask for a fix:  i.e. sign a letter asking for Medicare Advantage to be exempted...or delay the individual mandate or other such exemptions affecting certain voter groups..  The problem is much of these cut rollbacks would seriously harm the affordability of the program. i.e. Cuts to Medicare account for a third of the Obamacare savings that would have to be offset by something.  Depending upon how long the individual mandate would be rolled back could destroy the creation of the pool making the entire program a financial disaster and passing on the costs on to everyone else.  The extent of the impact must be weighed; to do otherwise is irresponsible.

Here is how a Democrat could position  the next campaign in anticipation the  GOP might link  Medicare  to Obamacare:.  "While I do not like everything about Obamacare (or do), what it does right is add 12 years to Medicare's life..  What it does is stop wasteful overpayments to insurance companies for Medicare Advantage.  What it does right is not touch Medicare benefits. My opponent wants to restore the abuses to a program we treasure, cut 12 years off its life,  (and where appropriate)...he/ she wants to privatize it, give you a voucher that is not guaranteed to cover your costs in the future."   

That same litany could be used to refute other issues pertaining to Obamacare.  For example:" While I do not like everything Obamacare does, and I am happy to see the web site up and running, what it does right is makes sure pre-existing conditions are covered, that you can get no-copay cancer screenings, allow my 19 year old child to stay on my insurance...etc.  What my opponents want is to make you give up all of this because that is what "repeal" means.  For those of you who have gotten affordable insurance (5-6 million), my opponent wants you to turn in your insurance and trade it  for nothing, zippo, but to risk bankruptcy and to fear again  to get treated for what ever ails you because of the cost." 

Some resources I drew on : http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2013/aug/19/will-obamacare-hurt-medicare-advantage/        "GOP targeting Medicare Advantage cuts in 2014 campaign it hopes will be referndum on Obaamacare: Bruce Alpert, Times-Picayune at NOLA .com  March 12, 2014