Are Republicans performing dumb political tricks when they
try to destroy Pres. Obama’s major domestic initiatives of Obamacare and
immigration reform with threats of shutting down the government? Possibly.
Polls reflect and are warnings of backfires. Continuing resolutions and compromise are temporary
band aids but eventually the time clock runs out and a nasty taste is left in
the voters’ mouths.
In the fall of 2013 much of the federal government was shut
down over Obamacare. The radical right
of the GOP, the Tea Party wing, tried to defund implementation of the health
care reform law and they tied it to the government funding legislation. They
hoped by including it in another piece of legislation critical to government functioning
they would force the President to cave in.
To avoid getting the blame for being the party who pulled this stunt,
they pointed a finger at the President saying it was his fault because he
refused to compromise on Obamacare.
The problem for the
GOP is that the public was not fooled about who initiated the strategy and they
were angered with the shutdown that inconvenienced and disgusted them. Per an ABC/Washington Post
Poll October 22, 2013 “eight in 10 Americans say they disapprove of the
shutdown. Two in three Republicans or independents who lean Republican share a
negative view of the impasse. And even a majority of those who support the tea
party movement disapprove.”
The GOP right are fooling themselves if they
point to victories in 2014 as a sign shutdowns do not matter. The can was
kicked down the road then and it was no longer a front burner issue. As the German saying goes: “Out of sight, out
of mind”. Neither will happen in 2015.
In 2015 the issue is different; the strategy
is the same. It is the Tea Party Congressional wing again, requiring the rest
of Congress to vote to overturn the President’s executive actions on
immigration by tying it to funding Homeland Security at a time when Americans
are sweating in fear from ISIS.
Once
again, the Tea Party shoots the GOP in its feet and only 30% of the public
approve of the shutdown strategy. 53% blame the GOP per a CNN/ORC poll
(2/17/2015).
In this case, though, the potential electoral
fallout is long lasting and serious. In
2013 the GOP had only midterms to contest in mostly red states. In 2016 general election electoral
votes are at stake and demographics and turnout are different. The Senate map
favors Democrats since the election will hinge on blue and purple swing states
with large Hispanic voting blocks. The
ones most impacted if their citizens can no longer get Obamacare health
insurance because a possible Supreme Court decision are low income white voters upon which red state GOP support depends. This will put state GOP Senate and
state house candidates on the spot to offer a fix. Count on Democrats to remind voters of their
GOP opponents’ votes and positions in 2016.
http://www.cnn.com/2015/02/17/politics/poll-dhs-funding-gop/http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-major-damage-to-gop-after-shutdown-and-broad-dissatisfaction-with-government/2013/10/21http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2015/01/06/the-gops-2016-problem-in-3-maps/ http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/king-burwell-dilemma-republicans-swing-states
A
version of this column published http://www.skyhidailynews.com/news/15289357-113/muftic-gop-political-tricks-likely-to-backfire-in-2016
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