The battlefield has
changed for the 2016 general election and Republicans so far are fighting the
last war of 2014 midterms . Better they take a look at the history of
2012, too, and consider the demographic changes taking place in the last four
years. Senate seats up for grabs and electoral states needed to win the White
House will tilt more to blue and purple states than in 2014. Gridlock and buck passing are now the GOP's new brand.
The GOP will have a harder time in 2016 making jobs, growth
and the economy a winning issue than in 2012 because the economy has improved
and will improve even more by 2016.
The GOP will also have difficulty with a track record of the
party of repeal without replace. Their strategy has been gridlock: to obstruct, threaten government shut downs, and
replace problem solving legislation with a bag empty of all but hot air. With both Houses of Congress, the buck has
stopped with them. They own the legislative agenda and strategy.
The GOP has no viable substitutes for Obamacare to help
millions afford health insurance. They
refuse to provide any solution to undocumented immigrant status other than to
keep them in the shadows and send them back no matter how inhumane it is to
break up families or unfair to dreamers.
Their critique of the President’ s
foreign policy provides no alternatives other than more of the same he
is already doing or to risk mission
creep leading to a third Iraq war and
interminable occupation.
Mitt Romney’s disdain of the 47% in 2012 was a turnoff to
swing voters that eventually determined the outcome. President Obama is daring
the GOP to defeat “middle class economics” programs such as child care tax credits, free community
college, and job creating infrastructure projects. A GOP vote against those antidotes to the
middle class’ declining standard of
living , or opposing raising taxes on
the very rich to pay for any programs directly benefitting the middle class, will only make any candidate look like a Romney in a different suit.
The voting pool
resembles 2012 on steroids with more young women and Hispanics in the Democratic
party camp. Even in 2012 demographics were major factors defeating the GOP in
races for both the White House and in some crucial senate seats. Assuming Hillary Clinton runs, expect the women’s vote to be even stronger
for her because of her gender.
Regardless of how the Courts decide, a GOP’s anti- immigrant vote attempting to roll back the President’s
executive orders will do nothing but
bring home to Hispanics the negative
consequences of a GOP victory in 2016.
Polls show Hispanics already regard he GOP
hostile toward their interests, but the key is turnout. Hispanic turnout was below expectations in
2012 and 2014. One of the reasons for low turnout in the past was that
Hispanics got tired of waiting for the President to take action on the status
of immigrants and they had developed an attitude it was the President’s fault
for not pushing harder. The President’s executive action and the GOP’s attempt
to kill it has gone far to change that perception.
http://www.latinpost.com/articles/25237/20141105/election-results-2014-latino-voters-gop-dont-care-community-supports.htmhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/03/12/the-new-republican-tax-plan-is-just-the-bush-tax-cuts-on-steroids/
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