2020: It's the economy,stupid.

Felicia Muftic I have a theory: I sense a shift in publics' top issues. With recent market gyrations and economists' raising concerns about a future recession, the economy is in sharper focus than before when there were no economic clouds on the horizon. This may be too soon to register in opinion polls.  The reason that Warren has risen is that she has her finger on where a large segment of the national mood is now. It is the economy, stupid. Trump has succeeded in convincing his cult followers that he is the only one to provide them with the right economic populist approach, even though trickle-down failed. Others' approaches would make things worse than they have it now. It could be a lot worse with "socialists". who would bankrupt the economy., so his line goes. This only works if the economy does not take a turn for the worse before November 2020. Warren has a specific economic populist approach that she has been able to explain in not threatening tones aimed at the financial sector, mostly. She has so far escaped putting a price tag on her plans or an overt socialist tag. She has a more narrow focus on specific issues, claiming she just wants the capitalist economy to work better for all.  She may get away with it because like Bernie, she is no phony and has a long track record of advocating for her plans. It may come down to whom voters trust more to be on their side when it comes to economic populism and it may be more of a matter of personalities instead of plans and ideology. Biden has a more general approach: steady at the wheel and no crazy boat-rocking. His plans for the economy are more traditional and moderate and that appeals to another segment of swing voters who are not feeling economically strapped but who are disgusted with the craziness, lies, misogyny, and racism. His old guy, his long public record would not scare them off and leave them sitting on their hands on election day. Any of the above mentioned Democratic candidates could still win and be better than the Trump nut house. The irony is that it may not come down to who has the better economic populist plan or the more appealing personality, but an economic downturn would yank the rug out from any of Trump's claim he has the best plan. Timing is everything, but for that latter theory to work, the downturn needs to come before November 2020. That is more than a theory, but it is not yet a sure bet.

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