Sunday, June 20, 2021

Why is there a labor shortage? It is a particularly big problem in a ski/tourist based area

 I can only speculate why there is a labor shortage from what I know talking to vendors, family, and friends. I have been told bluntly by business people who depend on trained tradesmen that they cannot afford to live in a ski area where our most business and job opportunities are. Affordable employee housing does not exist in sufficient quantities. This means living where land is not so expensive...and that means distance which means transportation, including public, must be able to serve them. That problem exists in all of the ski-based areas.  ttps://coloradosun.com/2021/06/23/cast-nwcog-survey-mountain-town-affordable-housing-crisis/?mc_cid=767eed0710&mc_eid=fc08433bbe

The other is that lifestyles cannot change on a dime. We pretzeled our lives into work from home, staying at home, school at home, mostly because child care and COVID made the old model of life, dropping kids off at school or childcare, and onto the office or job site..was interrupted. It takes time to readjust, find child care, and...if the employer is still around...go back...or find a new job if the employer had gone belly up. Not only that, some liked some of the new lifestyles..less travel, more zoom..and the flexibility of working from home. We went shopping online. Getting into a car, going from store to store to find what we wanted, was time-consuming and not the sport it once was. Convenience can be addictive, and online had its advantages. The driver of the US economy is indeed consumer spending.. and it accounts for nearly 70% of the Gross Domestic Product of the US  economy. The subsidies and wage increases put dollars into pockets to spend. Was $300 more in the paycheck pocket a factor? If what you earned before was so low-paying, it could be, and wages are slowly rising to $15 per hour. Plus, for some, with minimum pay increasing, it pays to go back to work for those who once earned income so low, it left them below the poverty line. When child care costs so much, it may have made it economically advantageous to stay at home, but those subsidies are going away, too. We are in a transition period, and it may be that there is a new normal that will be a bit different than we once knew.

Pres. Biden announced on June 24 an infrastructure deal arrived with a bipartisan group of Senators containing enough GOP Senators to get one track, the narrow traditional definition of infrastructure (roads, bridges, transportation, etc) pass with a filibuster-proof majority.  The second track, the human social network, would proceed separately with the budget reconciliation process requiring a simple majority.  He tied them together, saying they both would have to pass for him to sign the track one bill Republicans want.  It is a clever maneuver that worked for both the "bipartisan" Joe Manchin and the liberal block, keeping the party's left-wing on board, too.  Sen. Minority Leader Mitch Mcconnell immediately condemned the deal and set about to wean the GOP members pledged to the deal away from it.   If Mcconnell succeeds in sabotaging it, the risk he faces is that the Democrats will make a strong case in the midterms that the GOP opposes and wrecked bi-partisanship and popular programs favored by 60-70% of voters.  If the deal holds, Biden can take credit for it and show how effective and capable he is even though his oratorical skills are lacking.   It is a win, win for Democratic politics in either case.  If the Democrats win, Biden can make the case that jobs will be created and women and families with children can afford to get back to jobs and re-enter the workforce.  All of this should happen before the 2022 midterms and the struggle for majorities in both houses begin in earnest.

Another issue of note is restoring the rust belt and reviving the manufacturing sector to its former importance. Both Trump and Biden have or are addressing the problem of whether the US should be more of a manufacturing economy. Trump and Biden were not free traders though Trump tried the tariff approach and the costs were just passed through to consumers. Labor unions were dissed. Biden is supporting more of a subsidy approach eventually paid for with more debt or higher taxes and greater support of union labor through his jobs programs and government purchasing policy. He has positioned himself outside the made in China issue by hammering home his jobs policies...geared to restart the manufacturing sector in the USA.. The reason? Politically neither Trump nor Biden could afford to lose rust belt states. Biden's pro-union and support of government purchasing for made in America is his platform and his jobs legislation and that helped turn the rust belt bluer because Trump's approach did not turn the tide re Chinese importation.

There is indeed a big difference between official government action in "selling out technology to China" and the private sector doing it. However, government can also influence the private sector with inaction as well as action. What do consumers want has also been the driver of both government and the private sector.. Look at your clothes labels, your small consumer goods, your electronics, and you will also see how much consumers value cheap goods. We as consumers are just as guilty. Are consumers willing to pay more for higher tariffs on Chines imports or for Made in the USA products? Per Pogo: we have met the enemy and they are us. US manufacturers would and should keep products made in the USA lower is a question of public policy influencers.


Components of GDP: Explanation, Formula, Chart (thebalance.com)

Colorado Faces Growing​ Construction Labor Shortage | Professional Builder (probuilder.com)

"We have a deal": Biden announces bipartisan compromise on infrastructure - CBS News


No comments:

Post a Comment