The Texas abortion law; a gift to Democrats? Maybe

 Is the Texas abortion law a gift to Democrats?  Maybe. The political fallout from this most extreme anti-abortion law in the US was permitted by a Supreme Court to go forward.  Democrats need to give their  usual more complacent voters motivation to turnout in the midterms in 2022 to offset the already motivated and enthusiastic hardcore pro-life members of the GOP who are getting most of their fondest pro-life wishes fulfilled. This outrageously extreme Texas anti-abortion law just may be the ticket Democrats need to give a shot of adrenalin to the arm of their voters, turning out their voters to offset those of the already motivated religious right.  It is not a given per some observers, however.

National sentiment approving Roe v Wade has held steady for the past 50 years. In 2022, however, all elections will be local, House districts, a third of the Senate,  and in statehouses. That other governors and legislatures in ruby-red states may copycat this extreme law will boot the issue to the national level.

59% of Americans say abortion should be legal | Pew Research Center    

The next question is will that make any difference in 2022 and will it turn out more Democrats as well as more Republicans. A publication Politico opinion writer does not think so since it has not so far and the pro and con polled opinion has remained steady for years, the country is already divided per tribe (I would call this “cultural”) and this is just one defining issue. The Supreme Court may take a stance that makes criteria for permitting abortions more restrictive yet stopping short of an outright ending Roe v Wade, as they wait for the relatively less draconian Mississippi case. What Supreme Court’s Texas Punt Means For Mississippi’s Abortion Case (mississippifreepress.org) It might take some wind out of the backlash sails. Opinion | Don’t Be So Sure a Supreme Court Backlash Will Boost Democrats - POLITICO 

  Politico carves out an exception for one demographic, younger voters, which might motivate their turnout in great numbers in favor of the Democrats than even in 2020.    Others have noted the increasing political power of younger voters.  Increasingly active younger voters liberalize US electorate | TheHill

Not mentioned in the Politico analysis was Congressional action to make Roe v Wade a law, no longer dependent on the judiciary to work around an obviously ideological pro-life majority on the Supreme Court. The threat to add more seats to the Court has been revived but that is a steep hill to climb without a super Democratic majority in the Senate.  However, Democrats' bill to make Roe v Wade a federal law now in the works will serve to get each Senator and House votes “on the record” so that their positions can be more easily attacked by their opponents in their races in 2022. It will also result in more national media attention to local and statehouse races particularly in swing states since 2022 is not a presidential election year.  Also, some elements of the Texas law are so over the top, it might also get the attention of some fence-sitting moderates. Some clauses could raise some hackles asleep at the wheel until now such as forbidding abortion in the case of rape or incest, and the cross-state line vigilante enforcement that permits anyone in the US to sue anyone in Texas who aided  ( broad, ad undefined}  an abortion past 6 weeks of a person’s pregnancy. Over 80% of women do not know they are pregnant until after the first 6 weeks per the ACLU, which is a very sneaky way to get around an outright abortion ban by a government. The Texas law also places an award for pro-life bounty hunters of $10,000 settlement should their court suit succeeds.

 Talk about precedent. Not only does this vigilante enforcement permit extreme intrusion into the private lives of women, but it also opens the door to  any other legislation, including pet ones from the left such as gun legislation and voter suppression, that permits enforcement by civil suit to be filed by a vigilante anywhere in the US. Careful what you wish, right-wing fanatics.  One issue the Texas law undermines is that in civil law, the plaintiff has to show how they were damaged personally,  and the Texas law tries to eliminate the “standing” issue. The constitutionality of this Texas law has not been tested by litigation or by the Court, though the pro-life ideologues now in the majority on the Court refused to issue a temporary restraining order to keep it from going into effect immediately.

Texas judge temporarily shields clinics from anti-abortion group's lawsuits (yahoo.com)

Why Texas?  Partisan gerrymandering has empowered a hard-right turn in Texas (yahoo.com)