Friday, April 11, 2025

Is chaos the best word for Democrats to use? Messaging again.

 In 2024, Nikki Haley, the only significant primary opponent to Trump, coined the word "chaos" to criticise the kind of government Trump would bring to America if he got elected.  The term "chaos" did not work well enough for her then.  Will it be the best approach for the anti-MAGA today?  Today, I heard Chuck Schumer, Senate minority leader, use the word  "chaos" as the attack charge congressional Democrats are planning as a theme for next week.  "Chaos" may need to be replaced with "cruel" if Trump policies become a long-term, painful reality with higher prices, inflation, and recession, as Democrats have predicted. That could come sooner than later. In fact, it is happening now: https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-trump-tariffs-trade-war-04-11-25/card/consumer-sentiment-tanks-in-april-on-recession-fears-zPCqlvnxjQZIIJWhMVEy?mod=e2tw   and https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/charts.php

What Trump just did in proclaiming a 90-day moratorium on tariff disposition is to keep "chaos" on the burner, he thinks. It was clearly a delay tactic. However,  businesses may still hike prices as a hedge against what they feel about the future. We will get a better feel for that within the month, as March and April, the consumer price index and inflation data are released, "Chaos" itself can still have a degree of impact depending upon how much the person in power is trusted, and Trump's erratic behavior does not help the trust factor. It isn't just consumer prices that will tell the tale. The impact of the DOGE chainsaws on federal customer services and funding for human services will begin to be felt by even those who have not been paying attention.

More:

The most important question pollsters can ask is, "Does X care about you?" Choosing the right word theme can make the difference between losers and winners

  "Chaos" is a two-edged sword.  For those who believe Trump's soothing words that it will hurt a little now, but it will be beautiful in the future, and the non-MAGAs who believe it will turn out badly, warning that pain will last, is predictive and unsettling. However, as a political stance now, it does not swing many blue voters who once voted for Trump.   Chaos may be a good description of what is happening now, as Trump reacts to Wall Street crashing and claiming his tariff policies are a negotiating strategy he had always planned.    "Chaos" may need to be replaced soon with "cruel"  if Trump policies becoming a forever painful reality with higher prices and inflation as Democrats have predicted.

 Chaos is a term  that may cause worries to MAGA, but if leaning red, they are keeping the faith it will all turn out fine, and the leaning blue is rallying their voters with Chicken Little, the sky is falling in, warnings.  The term chaos may work for some, but when the sky actually crashes on their heads, it becomes reality even for the MAGA.  We are not there yet in spite of the extreme Wall Street gyrations.  When the tariffs actually impact the costs of what people want or need to buy or spend money on, Chicken Little comes home to roost.  Chaos is no longer the theme Democrats should embrace, but another word needs to become the theme.. depending on the severity. MAGA becomes the party of needless pain to benefit the rich. "Cruel." is a better pejorative, and the reminder of how Trump's promises failed them, should be, MAGA, "you voted for this?"

.By far, the better stance is the sub-theme that whatever MAGA is doing, they do not care about those who never seem to have enough to make ends meet. They are the party of "let them eat cake", disconnected for the real life people are actually experiencing.  Trump cares mostly for those who have some money to pay for what they need or want, regardless of cost (like oligarchs and billionaires ).What politicians call such people is problematic. Depending on the candidate, those are called working class, middle class, or something similar, which is a handy term that some may not describe where they are...poor and old or facing large expenses on cars, home ownership, or expensive medical challenges, or unemployment.  Working class is economic, socialist jargon to which not all can relate.  American optimism is that, unlike in Europe, it is possible to live the American dream even if you come from economic deprivation. You are not stuck in a "class," but there is hope for upward mobility.

" Kitchen table" worries can resonate, but... better still ...worried about making ends meet is a better description of a wide range of economic "classes". Some may just be worried about even affording the bare necessities of a place to live and food to eat, and more will worry about whether they can afford college tuition, take a vacation, or buy or replace electronics, appliances, and a new or used car.  Some may be even well off but are penny pinchers by nature. Some who experience layoffs may find themselves sinking into a lower "class". I remember as a radio talk show host on consumer affairs, I received blowback from listeners who resented being placed in an economic class for political purposes. Many people do not see themselves fitting into any class.  It works for Bernie and AOC, but the people impacted by MAGA/Trump/Musk are more than just the lower middle income and poor, but also stretch into the middle income.  We are all consumers, but not everyone in that group is price sensitive or is on a budget. It does however relate to more than just those struggling to pay for basic necessities, but also those who are resenting being screwed by price hikes and inflation who are better heeled.

Wednesday, April 9, 2025

What's happening to gas prices at the pump?

 Here's the basic problem with gas prices at the pump.  We do not have a supply problem; we have a glut both in the US and internationally. Trump does not set the price per barrel of crude; the Middle East cartels do. . One fact is clear: We also have a supply glut in the US. As the price per barrel sinks lower than $60, it means there will be no drill baby drill anyway. Low prices like that mean the drilling expense is not covered by the sale price. The problem now is fear of a recession on the horizon, thanks to Trump's crazy trade wars, so prices will sink because demand will fall, and lower demand results in lower prices.   That's the good and the bad news.  The bad news: People will drive less if there is a recession. If there is inflation in other goods caused by the tariffs, the budgets of ordinary people will be stretched to the breaking point, offsetting any reduction in gas prices.  As the price per barrel of crude sinks to lows, gas at the pump prices average nationally at $3.2 per gallon, not reflecting the crash in crude prices yet, though it may later.. https://gasprices.aaa.com/

From google AI
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+, decided to increase oil production, which led to more oil entering the market.
Market Impact:
This increased supply, coupled with global economic uncertainty, caused oil prices to fall.
Production Increase:
OPEC+ pledged to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day instead of the expected 140,000 per day, starting next month.
Market Dynamics:
The cartel's decision to increase production, despite global economic uncertainty, led to a "perfect storm" that pushed down prices.
Yes, there are concerns about a potential oil supply glut in the US and globally, with factors like increased production, especially from the US and OPEC+, and potential weak demand contributing to this outlook.
Here's a more detailed explanation:
Increased Production:
The US has become a major oil producer, and its output, along with that of other countries like Canada and Guyana, is contributing to a growing global supply.
OPEC+'s Role:
OPEC+ (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies) is also expected to increase production, further adding to the supply.
Potential Weak Demand:
While demand from emerging economies like China and India is expected to grow, overall demand, particularly in OECD countries, is projected to be relatively weak, potentially leading to a supply glut.
US Production Growth:
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) anticipates slower growth in US oil production in 2026, as lower prices might dampen drilling activity, with production projected to peak in the second quarter of 2026.
Refinery issues
The US fuelmaking complex is faltering as consumption stalls and profit margins shrink, which bolsters the possibility of an oversupply of crude.
Global Impact:
This potential glut could lead to lower oil prices, impacting global markets and the energy sector.
Recent Data:
In January 2025, US crude oil production fell to an 11-month low, further contributing to concerns about a potential glut.
Oil prices dip
The US crude oil benchmark temporarily plunged below the stress-inducing $60 per barrel threshold on Monday amid tariff and economic slowdown fears, putting the nation's record-high volumes of oil production at risk.
Oil prices fall on supply glut fears despite OPEC+ output cut extension
Dec 6, 2024 — Oil prices fall on supply glut fears despite OPEC+ output cut... * Brent and WTI both down more than 1%, post weekly l...
Reuters
World faces historic oil glut ahead, report warns - Axios
Oct 29, 2024 — U.S. as a top producer: In the past decade, America has emerged as a major oil producer — helping add to global supply...
Axios
Oil price outlook: Markets may get hit by a global supply glut
Aug 11, 2024 — The US fuelmaking complex — a key factor in global supply-demand balances — is faltering as consumption stalls and pro..

(I have used the google AI as sources for this, but it reflects experts I have tapped as well, as well as prior postings and resources, The AI summary is in keeping with these other sources)

Tuesday, April 8, 2025

The Trump regime plot to break the rule of law:Act like a dictator first:get SCOTUS ok later

 It is becoming clear that the Trump regime's strategy to break the rule of law and make law the rule of a dictator: Act like a dictator first, and then see how much they can get away with it later, using the Supreme Court for OKs.

The Trump regime is attempting to tear down the rule of law, by threatening impeachment of judges whose rullnges they do not like, bullying large law firms into not representing clients the Trump regime does not like, and now threatening to defy court orders in the wrongfully deporting Venezualan gang members, depositing them in El Salvador jails the US funds, and now defying court orders to return them to the US to face due process hearings.)  The Supreme Court then ruled that before deportation, there must be a hearing before a judge, but left no help for one or more possibly wrongly included in the 300 now in El Salvador gulag.  https://apnews.com/article/supreme-court-trump-deportations-el-salvador-9988b667199e1b02fc0a6a83570225c1

The Supreme Court just set up a potentially huge clash with Trump   Update: 4/11/2025

https://apnews.com/live/donald-trump-news-updates-4-9-2025#00000196-1b3e-df33-a5d6-5b7facb40000     Courts now denying deportations based on enemies act, likely to go to SCOTUS

https://mufticforumblog.blogspot.com/2025/03/whats-big-deal-about-rule-of-law.html

 https://mufticforumblog.blogspot.com/2025/02/what-those-who-support-rule-of-law.htm 

https://apnews.com/article/trump-el-salvador-prison-kilmar-abrego-garcia-5a92d6bd7f893eed64c2607cc129a6f9l     


Sunday, April 6, 2025

If Trump passes off "hands off demonstrators" as just sheeple: H'e delusional.

If Trump passes off "hands off demonstrators" as just sheeple, he's delusional.  He has said it in the past about other street protests.  I was at our local small town Fraser, Colorado's "hands off" protests 4/5/2025 and I have noted that most were over 60 years old.  I am not surprised since social security service and 401K's were the hot topics of the immediately preceding week. Trump has to blame someone to explain why this is happening to his local followers and came up with a goodie that basically claimed most were just sheeple. Trump is delusional to think all of those demonstrators turning up at Hands Off rallies were just sheeple. Those are real pissed off voters turning up..No one voted for chainsaw destruction of government services (they were ok with doing away with waste, fraud and abuse, but not doing away with government services or whole departments), They did vote for lower grocery prices, which Trump now laughs at. They did not vote for crashing the economy and their 401 Ks, which Trump only says it is "temporary.", with promises that somehow business will immediately bring industry back to America (though it takes years to invest and build new factories to deliver, if they can, lower costs consumer goods). They did vote for lower interest rates, which Trump's tariffs will instead increase inflation, so interest rates are not going down now or likely in the future, as Walmart and Target increase prices on the products they import (much of what they sell) . Even Wall Street is forecasting a 60% chance of a recession within the year. Anyone vote for that? No one voted to cut out scientific research on diseases like cancer and Alzheimer's, which he just did. People were promised by Trump that social security would not be touched, which is now being sabotaged by chainsaw Musk, who just kneecaps the ability to deliver what those who paid into it expect. People did not vote to take away food banks for the hungry or free lunches for their kids. 48% of the voters in the last election did not vote for Trump to do any of these. They, however, are left to say "told you so". So add them to the ones who were taken for a ride with Trump's soaring oratory. Need I go on? How does he think he is getting away with this? Because he never intends to face the voters again, and he has immunity from being prosecuted for crimes (thanks to the Supreme Court). He got the vote he needed to win...and now he is unchained from any responsibility to adhere to the law and be influenced by opinion polls.