What's happening to gas prices at the pump?

 Here's the basic problem with gas prices at the pump.  We do not have a supply problem; we have a glut both in the US and internationally. Trump does not set the price per barrel of crude; the Middle East cartels do. . One fact is clear: We also have a supply glut in the US. As the price per barrel sinks lower than $60, it means there will be no drill baby drill anyway. Low prices like that mean the drilling expense is not covered by the sale price. The problem now is fear of a recession on the horizon, thanks to Trump's crazy trade wars, so prices will sink because demand will fall, and lower demand results in lower prices.   That's the good and the bad news.  The bad news: People will drive less if there is a recession. If there is inflation in other goods caused by the tariffs, the budgets of ordinary people will be stretched to the breaking point, offsetting any reduction in gas prices.  As the price per barrel of crude sinks to lows, gas at the pump prices average nationally at $3.2 per gallon, not reflecting the crash in crude prices yet, though it may later.. https://gasprices.aaa.com/

From google AI

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+, decided to increase oil production, which led to more oil entering the market.

Market Impact:

This increased supply, coupled with global economic uncertainty, caused oil prices to fall.

Production Increase:

OPEC+ pledged to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day instead of the expected 140,000 per day, starting next month.

Market Dynamics:

The cartel's decision to increase production, despite global economic uncertainty, led to a "perfect storm" that pushed down prices.

Yes, there are concerns about a potential oil supply glut in the US and globally, with factors like increased production, especially from the US and OPEC+, and potential weak demand contributing to this outlook.

Here's a more detailed explanation:

Increased Production:

The US has become a major oil producer, and its output, along with that of other countries like Canada and Guyana, is contributing to a growing global supply.

OPEC+'s Role:

OPEC+ (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies) is also expected to increase production, further adding to the supply.

Potential Weak Demand:

While demand from emerging economies like China and India is expected to grow, overall demand, particularly in OECD countries, is projected to be relatively weak, potentially leading to a supply glut.

US Production Growth:

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) anticipates slower growth in US oil production in 2026, as lower prices might dampen drilling activity, with production projected to peak in the second quarter of 2026.

Refinery issues

The US fuelmaking complex is faltering as consumption stalls and profit margins shrink, which bolsters the possibility of an oversupply of crude.

Global Impact:

This potential glut could lead to lower oil prices, impacting global markets and the energy sector.

Recent Data:

In January 2025, US crude oil production fell to an 11-month low, further contributing to concerns about a potential glut.

Oil prices dip

The US crude oil benchmark temporarily plunged below the stress-inducing $60 per barrel threshold on Monday amid tariff and economic slowdown fears, putting the nation's record-high volumes of oil production at risk.

Oil prices fall on supply glut fears despite OPEC+ output cut extension

Dec 6, 2024 — Oil prices fall on supply glut fears despite OPEC+ output cut... * Brent and WTI both down more than 1%, post weekly l...

Reuters

World faces historic oil glut ahead, report warns - Axios

Oct 29, 2024 — U.S. as a top producer: In the past decade, America has emerged as a major oil producer — helping add to global supply...

Axios

Oil price outlook: Markets may get hit by a global supply glut

Aug 11, 2024 — The US fuelmaking complex — a key factor in global supply-demand balances — is faltering as consumption stalls and pro..

(I have used the google AI as sources for this, but it reflects experts I have tapped as well, as well as prior postings and resources, The AI summary is in keeping with these other sources)