I may have been wrong: Trump's sinking poll numbers and the Wall Street revolt in response to some crazy policies he advocated caused him to "moderate". Political reality did affect him. If so, we will have to wait and see if his words are followed by action that implements his announced policies in the short and long term. Pressure from business funders also works: Trump backed down on mass importation of hospitality and farm workers. https://mufticforumblog.blogspot.com/2025/06/taco-trump-backs-off-mass-deportations.html
Updated comment 6/7/2025: TACO tag, originating from Wall Street regarding Trump's announced and modified threats of tariffs, is an observation that has resonance. " Trump always chickens out. " It has much wider application than just on tariff policies. It is the way he operates. It is the art of his dealing: threaten with nasty, over-the-top demands, get the best deal he can for himself politically, even if he has to back down; then claim victory when he gets 10% of his original demands while losing 90%. That approach has a drawback: in time, used so much and so often, the public wises up and so do his victim/deal targets and call his bluff, stand firm, and just wait for him to "chicken out".
Trump's announcement of pausing and reversing China tariffs for 90 days buys some time and removes the huge backlash he was facing. The uncertainties are now drawn out for 90 more days, but the political pressure is lessened for now. The long-term impact of how much he moderates with the rest of the world, Canada, and the EU, is yet to be seen. The recent deal on the UK is PR puffery since we had a positive trade balance already with the UK, and they already had the lowest (10%) across-the-board tariffs that Trump had proposed compared to much of the rest of our trading partners, whom he has threatened. Those are still right up there in higher tariffs. It is still uncertain what the impact of all of this will have on inflation, consumer confidence, and consumer prices in the long term.
The best new policy, if it works as he promises, is reducing the cost of certain prescription drugs to the levels paid abroad for them. That would take the stress off of Medicare costs to the government to some extent. Whether it will help those not on Medicare will be the question. Trump included some threats to investigate and pressure them. Negotiating formularies is a continuation of an approach Biden began, and now it will be expanded by Trump. Negotiating formularies on behalf of government-related certain health programs with big pharma to lower drug costs of specific medications had been forbidden until Biden began to do so, and now Trump has continued. It may break the hold big pharma has had for years. The hurdles to getting it done are complicated and may not be as immediate as he hopes, especially if big pharma fights back. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/12/trump-drug-pricing-order-most-favored-nation.html
No comments:
Post a Comment