A tool of a dictator and a dictator consolidating power: provoking violence to justify their use of superior power to commit violence. It is an oldie but goodie weapon successfully used in history.. It could explain both Trump's and Putin's puzzling actions. What both have done recently is counterintuitive since the reaction to their words and deeds only consolidates and inspires greater resistance. There may be a method in both Trump's and Putin's madness. It is setting the trap of provocation now to get a better result later.
The use of provocation to justify committing violence to their supporters and using military to do it is how dictators and wannabe dictators grab power and domination, whether it is Russia or the Trump regime in the homeland. Russia sends drones to rattle the sabers and scramble defense jets in Poland and Romania. Why would Putin do it? It is counterintuitive, resulting in Europe rearming against him in fear that the Ukraine land grab will bleed over to them. Trump is sending military into Portland, DC, and Memphis to fight phantom antifa, using media from years ago to invent a bogus current event that seems counterintuitive, too. It hardens the resolve of those who oppose his power grabs. What both Putin and Trump have in common might be a strategy to provoke the targets to commit violence (shoot 'em down, Trump tells Poland) because it would give Trump and Putin an excuse for the use of violent force to advance their causes. War and violent suppression might be the way they think they can win. because they have the guns and ability. If they cannot win peacefully or by subversion, propaganda, lies, and threats, they think chaos and violence are their best hope. What is the answer? Be aware of what is going on; that is their strategy. Do not fall for the provocation, but be organized and disciplined, and be very clever about any pushback. That is how you demonstrate you are not falling for this. A mass turning of backs, satire that exposes the sham, local leadership calling them out, silent resistance (I love the satirical statues placed in visible spaces that make the point), and other pranks garnering media attention might work in our own country. For Poland and NATO, trust the Europeans and the NATO military strategists; do not trust or take advice from Trump. He is either still fawning over Putin or dangerously stupid.
Using a 5-year-old video of "antifa",.passing it off as a current video to justify sending troops into Portland is not only deceptive but is puzzling, too.Portland mayor condemns federal intervention, claims videos of anti-ICE riots were from years ago Why provoke more anger? To fool Trump's followers into continue backing him? Trump is now setting up "antifa" as the cause of opposition to him today, which needs to be suppressed by military force because they are the threat his followers should fear, used to justify his non-constitutional and dictatorial actions. Is the Trump regime hoping Portland loses its cool, and demonstrations against the action turn violent to justify using armed active military to "shoot the legs out of Antifa", as Trump wanted to do in his first term in reaction to the George Floyd riots? (only stopped by generals at the time). Like LA and DC, bored, untrained soldiers to be police they were supposed to aid, stood around areas frequented by tourists to send a message of what? Get used to armed military in blue cities; if you don't behave, they are a threat of violence against you, so don't assemble to voice complaints, or maybe they will be tasked to "secure" voting machines that only Trump loyalists have access to. (That got Colorado clerk Tina Peters a jail term, who did that which was so illegal. She obeyed Trump's orders and violated state and federal laws, instead of Colorado laws.) Trump has already demonstrated he cares nothing about such laws, hoping "his" Supreme Court would give him a stamp of approval six months later, after the election takes place. In DC the national guard battled boredom by picking up trash, but their presence was an implied threat by a person who acts like a dictator and who makes good on his threats..
Explainer-What is antifa and why is Trump targeting it?
Is Putin up to the same trick by sending drones into Poland and forcing NATO jets to scramble? It also seems counterintuitive because it hardens Europe's resolve to block him. Why would Putin do this? The explanaton for both could be they think they can win with violence, because propaganda, lies, subversion, threats of use of military violence, and a war of words have failed to get them what they seek So now they want to provoke a violent reaction becuuse even violence and chaos are thebest recourse left to them to amass power when the opposition is being sufficienlly effective through the courts and media, in the case of Trump and Europeis now woke and rearming as they realize what Putin is up to.
What is the goal Putin may have in sending in the dumb drones? It may be he can scare the rank and file and deliver the message of fear, that Putin has the ability to kill them if there is war, so get out of Ukraine. It is a divide and turn the less than educated, naive citizens against their leaders on Ukraine and force them to stop helping Ukraine resist Russia's aggressions. A former president of Russia may have just said this out loud. Putin Ally Responds to NATO Drone Swarms: ‘Dumb Animals’ - Newsweek
Another view is even more horrifying to contemplate: it is not a strategy for negotiation or saber-rattling. He will not wait for propaganda or provoking violence to justify his actions. Putin wants war with Europe. All hopes of reasoning with Putin are gone. War is coming.
Zelensky sees the Russian drone intrusion as a way to divert Europe's attention from the longer-term goal of the integrity and independence of Ukraine in an upcoming conference on European security. He also sees it as well as testing NATO's ability to detect and to unite to object to such aggressive acts.Zelenskyy reveals Russia’s reasons for violating NATO airspace
My question is also how able is Russia to fight both a war in Ukraine and an invasion of a NATO country now? That is a national security and intelligence matter. The timing may not be now, but Putin could be shaping future Russian war plans. Putin thinks like a chess master, considering future moves.
Trump on the other hand, plays politics and national security issues like a day trader, ignoring the longer-term consequences of winning the day's outrageous and headline-grabbing proclamations and short-term acts designed to keep his MAGA base fired up and him in office. His lack of considering future unintended consequences makes him TACO-prone, unpredictable, and irrationally dangerous. His approach is chaos and helter-skelter. That may be headline-grabbing for a day or two, but it may also sew the seeds of his own destruction at the ballot box as it inspires a more unified, determined pushback by the opposition.
What is the answer, and what should the pushback be? In the US, the strategy of provocation must be called out for what it is, with both humor and every kind of media available, and with strong leadership to keep the resistance peaceful in order to make the provokers fail. Turning back on the provocateurs in massive peaceful protests in the US, clever use of visuals and media can rally the pushback far more effectively than countering violence with violence. Escalating violence will only lead to Trump using the more massive force of the active armed military to suppress and control the vote in November 2026.
In Europe, the reaction to Putin should be of their own construction, and certainly, they should not take Trump's advice is just shoot down the Russian jets that intrude into their airspace. Resistance must not fall into the violence trap, either, but instead, they should give even more aid to Ukraine to fight their proxy war against Russia as an up-the-ante response in every instance.
Agent provocateurs were techniques used in Europe in the recent past. Those seeking more power used their own disguised agents to make the opposition look bad and violent to justify a violent crackdown by them. Trump and Putin become the agent provocateurs themselves, using their own propaganda and acts to provoke violent reactions so they can justify sending in their overwhelming force and threats of violence.
In the US, the setting up of Antifa (a loose, non-formal coalition of others) as the bogeyman to justify violence was first attempted by some Trump followers in claiming the Jan 6 rioters were really antifa in disguise. Videos put a lie to that BS. Angry black people have long been the fear of white racists who used violence, lynching, and murder to justify their crimes. Antifa fits that longstanding profile as the object of fear, justifying criminal behavior of the Ku Klux Klan and fellow travelers. It appearsTrump is invoking fear of Antifa to justify his actions to MAGA. Designating Antifa as a Domestic Terrorist Organization – The White House. More sheer BS from the Trump regime. Antifa is not an organization, FYI, and technically speaking, there are no domestic anti terrorist laws per se in the US, only as applied to foreign terrorist organizations such as Al Qaeda. "Despite the statutory definition of DT in Title 18 of the U.S. Code, no federal criminal provision expressly prohibits 'domestic terrorism." Understanding and Conceptualizing Domestic Terrorism: Issues for Congress | Congress.gov | Library of Congress
Update 10/6/2025:The gassing of peaceful protesters last night is an act of provocation by the masked military like actors. The fear is that by acting like agent provocateurs, these forces arrived ready to use tear gas on peaceful demonstrators. Watch it. https://www.rawstory.com/our-republic-is-in-big-trouble.../
Timothy Snyder, a political scientist professor in Toronto, wrote a book on the subject of the use of provocateurs. On Tyranny: "The goal (of provocateurs)is to provoke a reaction that justifies state-sanctioned violence against opponents, as seen during the rise of Nazism and communism. "
NATO fighter jets scrambled in Poland as Russia launches deadly strikes on Ukraine
Trump at UN advises Poland to shoot down Russian drones Instagram
