The GOP has set the table for class warfare and a Democratic feast with their threat to shutdown the government and defund Obamacare

Shades of 1995, 1996, and 2011. It has become a bad Republican habit. The GOP threatens   to shut down  government  unless they get their way. In the 1990’s the issue was about wanting to cut Medicaid and Medicare. In 2011, it was the debt ceiling. In 2013 Republicans  want to  deprive 30 million people of affordable health care. This also sets the stage for upcoming elections to make class warfare the substance of the battles.

The GOP has set the table upon which the Democrats can feast. Republicans seem perpetually  obsessed with  reducing the size of government even if  the programs attacked give the middle class a hands up.   When  formulating any tax policy, their bottom line is to protect the top one or two percent from any hit to their bank accounts.  Those principles seem to be ideologically applied to about every piece of legislation they encounter.

Do not think the middle class is oblivious.   According to this September’s NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, “Democrats continue to be seen as the party that is most looking out for the middle class. They lead (Republicans) on the question by 17 points. “

There are two issues on the Congressional table that  do not leap out to voters as middle class issues, but they are, and the GOP is vulnerable on both.  Obamacare is indeed  a middle class issue  and  so is shutting down the government. It is just that the Democrats have not articulated those issues as affecting the middle class.  They could easily.

Those with higher incomes can manage to pay medical bills without going bankrupt and they not only can weather a beating in their stock portfolios, they have thrived post recession. A middle class American family 24 years ago was making more than  a middle class family made last year.  The top 1 percent took more than one-fifth of the income earned by Americans, one of the highest levels on record since 1913, when the government instituted an income tax .A disparity that wide is fertile grounds for discontent.

Obamacare gives  the middle class  security that, regardless of their health condition, their income, or their employment situation now or in the future, they will be able to afford health insurance that will also provide preventative care and contains consumer protections from some bad insurance company practices.

September 30 is when the government runs out of money.   The first opportunity  to  apply  for Obamacare coverage is the next day..  The timing is not accidental. The Tea Party perpetrators of the strategy hope   to defund or delay Obamacare as part of their resolution allowing government to pay their bills  before the public  can learn  hands on that  health care reform  benefits them. It is easier to defund something the public does not yet  have or understand than later  to take away something that is already an appreciated benefit. They may be tilting at windmills, though, because the President holds the veto pen.

Government  shutdown affects  a  middle class  that is hoping for economic growth,   more jobs, and sound retirement plans. Congressional Budget Office Director Douglas Elmendorf warned that a “long broad shutdown” could “drag an already weak economy”.  U.S. Chamber of Commerce President Thomas Donohue said “It is insane not to raise the debt ceiling”. Chief Economist for the National Association of Credit Unions: “We basically would default on our debt, interest rates would go through the roof, and we’d fall into another recession.” As  investment guru Warren Buffett said last week of a threatened shutdown : that is “pretty (expletive) dumb.”  

A shutdown is also a dumb political move.  Per a September  CNN/ORC International Poll "Only a third would consider President Barack Obama responsible for a shutdown, with 51% pointing a finger at the GOP.

Warning to the GOP: don't overplay your hand in the March fiscal cliff

In the winter of 1995-1996 there was a death with repercussions lasting a decade. The deceased was the Newt Gingrich Republican Revolution.

It was a self-inflicted wound. The weapon used to commit suicide was the shutting down of government for days, used as a GOP bludgeon in arguments over the budget. So angered were the voters that in the next election cycle, Bill Clinton was re-elected easily.

In 2011, the GOP used the debt ceiling as a bargaining chip again and the economy took a measurable dip. In 2013, the debt ceiling, continuation of the resolution to fund government, sequestered spending cuts, and raising the debt limit unite in a perfect storm of entangled issues in March. The GOP should know from past experience if they overplay their hand, they risk a public backfire and a dent in economic growth.

The compromise avoiding the fiscal cliff on Jan. 2, also delayed debate on sequestered spending cuts for 60 days. The GOP is threatening to use disapproval of raising the debt limit and shutting down government as bargaining chips to get their way. They think they have a hot one, too. Hot, indeed.

What they may have done is set up the possibility of some of the most important Supreme Court decisions of the past 125 years, addressing the fundamental question of the separation of powers. Just how far does the GOP want to take their “leverage?” Are we now headed for a constitutional crisis, too? Do they really want to default on our loans if we do not raise the debt ceiling and imperil the economy to get their way over the debt ceiling? A wiser Newt Gingrich called this strategy a “dead loser” last week. Or is this just more brinkmanship bluffing?

While not precluding reduction in spending or more revenue enhancement, the president made it clear in remarks Jan. 2 he would not allow the GOP to use the debt ceiling to get their way on future spending cuts. The president staked his legal claim that Congress voted for the expenditures and he had the obligation to pay bills as they came due. That is indeed a major constitutional issue the Supreme Court could decide: Can Congress keep him from his duty as the executive branch to pay bills Congress had already authorized?

The president could also choose to tap the 14th Amendment, daring the GOP sue him and throw the issue to the Supreme Court. The president could continue to make good on payments on bonds (treasury notes) even if Congress forbids him from doing it. At issue is the 14th Amendment to the Constitution regarding the executive's power to pay bonds as they came due. Legal experts are divided so the outcome could be risky for both parties.

The question is not whether the debt problem should be tackled: Both the GOP and the Democrats know it must happen to avoid a credit rating downgrade or future economic problems. The issue is how. That “entitlements” need trimming is also acknowledged by both sides of the aisle and the Pentagon budget also needs close scrutiny. It is a matter of coming up with ways acceptable to a bipartisan coalition large enough to get it through Congress.

The GOP is laboring under a questionable belief they have the public mandate because they were re-elected to be the majority in the House. Some 2011 gerrymandering resulting in more safe districts for conservatives may have been greater factors. Public opinion polls in November 2012 showed more than 60 percent supporting balanced taxing and cuts. Public opinion also counted in the mid-90s when the GOP shut down government and the Republicans paid the price in the next election.



This is my column that appeared in the www.skyhidailynews.com today

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