The Supreme Court ruling on tariffs today? Consumers see a partial relief

 Trump's got a plan B up his sleeve despite his loss in the Supreme Court today, declaring that Trump did not have the power to impose reciprocal tariffs. (Those are the tariffs, like the 15% on all imports from the EU). How Trump plans to get around the ruling is to abuse another law: Trump orders temporary 10% global tariff to replace duties struck down by US Supreme Court. (and upped it to 15% 2/21/2026, and that may also be challenged as illegal on the basis that there are conditions attached he my have violated) He could ask his loyal Congress to just rubber-stamp his tariffs, also.. "Tariffs are taxes," declared a 6-3 Supreme Court, and Congress has that power, not the president, to levy them.

What was carved out in the SCOTUS ruling were aluminum and steel, and those tariffs remain because they were connected to national security interests. What is absurd about those is that beverages and cosmetics, mostly in aluminum containers, will still get hit by high tariffs based on the percentage and value of aluminum or steel container part of the item (50% for those smelt and cast in the EU and 200% if it comes from designated countries like Russia)...and those costs will still just be passed on to the consumers. Automobiles and steel tariffs were not affected by the relief, either. They remain, it appears. SCOTUS did not rule if consumers get a refund of some sort for the illegally imposed tariffs. So, consumers consider the price increases caused by tariffs as your donation to the federal treasury, legal or not. Supreme Court strikes down most of Trump's tariffs in a major blow to the president

What did change today with the ending of Trump's reciprocal tariffs may be that import shipments valued at below $800 will be exempted from the Trump tariff requirements, that they all had to go through US customs. CNBC addressed the issue this morning, and further verification is needed.  This deminimus exemption caused such a mess in such giants as UPS, that these small package shipments that did not meet the requirements of US customs paperwork were simply destroyed, estimated by some to total worth in billions of dollars.Update: 2/32/2026: no, nothing changed. Deminimus is still verboten.

Full disclosure: Felicia Muftic is president of a small business importing cosmetics from the European Union, some of which come in aluminum containers and others in plastic containers. MelemUSA,LLC

So here is Trump's plan B, to put a 10% tariff on every import relieved from the 15% plus tariff by the Supreme Court decision today. He is clear he sees tariffs as a fundraiser for the treasury. What is clear to everyone else, he wants to raise money on the backs of all consumers. Tariffs are going to be paid by consumers. Per a study of 2025 by the Federal Reserve, 90% of tariffs were paid by consumers and businesses.

.Let me raise an issue that has not been connected to tariffs yet. To keep the national debt in check caused by his generous tax breaks to the very rich and his friends, the tariffs, paid by normal people, make up some of the loss to the treasury by Trump's tax breaks. The answer is to reverse the tax breaks and let those who are not on budgets pay their fair share. Tax Cuts Are Primarily Responsible for the Increasing Debt Ratio - Center for American Progress

Tariffs make things more expensive and contribute to the affordability gap and to the middle-class travails of not having enough income to cover living expenses like they once did..

Trump does not care a fig about affordability. He calls that a Democrat hoax. This should be a red flag, an indication of where his heart does not lie.

Update 2/21/2026:The impact on small businesses Trump’s tariffs get knocked out — but the hit to small business is just beginning described in this article, which is what we ourselves have experienced and the recommended solutions make sense. We have not gone out of business but that was almost a day by day discussion as we encountered chaos and inconsistencies throughout our supply chain. We have survived to continue. The kindest comment I can make is that the 10%-15% world wide tariff brings some stability to our planning and orders for product from Croatia for the next five months. What this world wide tariff will do, however, in result in continued higher prices for consumers, including for products previously exempted

Per Google AI description of our company, Melem USA LLC: Melem USA, LLC, based in Fraser, Colorado, is an authorized importer and distributor of Melem skin and lip balm, a popular Croatian pharmaceutical skincare brand. They sell directly through their website and Amazon, catering to consumers seeking relief from dry, irritated, or chapped skin caused by harsh climates. 

The hard truth in a nutshell: tax cuts to the rich costs $4T; health care for poor gets cut $1T; consumers get the tariff bills.

The hard truth in a nutshell: tax cuts to the rich cost $4T over 10 years; health care for the poor gets cut $1T (over 10 years); consumers get stuck with much of the tariff costs.The only winners in Trump's economic policies: the rich and the appearance of more income to the federal balance sheet. The losers: the poor and near-poor, and all American families who will pay more for what they buy. 

Please do not call Trump a populist: this budget only takes away from people some popular programs relied upon by so many who are barely making it.  In addition to financial deprivation, the Trump regime also subverts or destroys consumer protections from products, as well as protections from fraud, all to the benefit of business interests.MUFTIC FORUM BLOG: Donald Trump, unsafe at any speed updated 8/4/2025

 Please do not cite current conditions of "how great his economy is". .These are forecasts; the stuff is just beginning to hit the fan.  When Trump blows his horn, his economy is great now, the impact of his policies has not yet been felt, but will.  Most cuts hurting the middle class will not take place until after 2026 midterms.  MUFTIC FORUM BLOG: MAGA supporters cheer Trump's economy, but the stuff has not hit the fan yet

 When Trump says his policies will be good for the economy, it will be great for him and his friends, but not for everyday Americans, who will get screwed, and so will the federal balance sheet: $3.4 trillion will be added to the deficit. Trump Tax Law to Add $3.4 Trillion to US Deficits, CBO Says (2)

Per  a check with  Google AI and their sources based on Congressional Budget Office figures (not the White House's)  over the next 10 years, the amount cut from the federal programs serving the poor and near poor is $1 trillion dollars.   Tax cuts to the rich will decrease income to the US treasury by $3 to $4 trillion dollars.   

Trump tariffs could bring in about 2 trillion plus in ten years to the treasury, but it would cost a family in the US in higher prices $2400 per year since some of those costs are just passed on to consumers.  It is a shift that is deceptive...consumers pay for the tariffs, but the federal balance sheet looks impressive.State of U.S. Tariffs: August 7, 2025 | The Budget Lab at Yale    The bottom 60% of Americans will see $400 tax cut, however, but not enough to offset the tariff screw.  Trump   suggests a rebate to consumers to help offset the cost of tariffs on consumer goods, but Congress must approve, and the impact on the deficit will only make that balance sheet worse, making Congress approval unlikely. Nice BS, Trump; more empty promises about family affordability. So what about your health care insurance?

Per Google AI:

Permanently extending the expiring provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) that largely favored high-income individuals and large corporations, often referred to as "Trump tax cuts," could cost the U.S. Treasury an estimated $4 trillion over the next decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). 

This potential revenue loss includes $3.4 trillion from extending expiring individual and estate tax provisions and $551 billion from extending business provisions. 

It's important to note that extending these tax cuts would disproportionately benefit the wealthy. For example, households in the top 1% (making more than roughly $743,000 a year) would receive average tax cuts of $61,000 a year, while households in the bottom 60% (making roughly $96,000 or less) would only see about $400 a year. 

Some estimates suggest the cost could be even higher. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities states that extending the expiring tax cuts could cost $4.2 trillion over the decade 2026-2035, with approximately half of the benefits going to the top 5% of earners (making over roughly $320,000). 

These figures highlight the significant financial implications and distributional effects of making permanent the tax cuts enacted in 2017.

• Permanently Extending the Trump Tax Cuts Would Cost $4 ...

  May 8, 2024 — Permanently Extending the Trump Tax Cuts Would Cost $4 Trillion Over the Next Decade. Permanently extending the Trump tax cuts would cost $400 billion per year ...
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Keep it simple, Dems, on the budget debate. A dialog with a MAGA

 It will easy to get lost in the weeds of figures and statistics as the debate begins. All of are subpoints, but always come back to a simple message.

Update: 2/28/2025   The GOP has a plan to cook the books on the impact of extending tax cuts to the rich:; They will try to change the original basis to disguise their lies. 

Here are the detailed weeds: House Budget Economic Claims Don’t Add Up | Center on Budget and Policy Priorities    The simple truth is that they are "cooking the books to cover a lie"

 .  https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/republicans-budget-change-deficit-impact-trump-tax-cuts-rcna194015.

How Much Does America Spend? - The New York Times

Continuing with the original post: 

I got this comment on a private Facebook page. My response.

GOP supporter:

"Dummycrats still don’t understand these positive advancements that he’s (Trump/Musk) accomplishing. Still so many brainwashed, uninformed sheep people." So many foxated by selective reporting, too. DOGE Quietly Deletes the 5 Biggest Spending Cuts It Celebrated Last Week - The New York Times

My response, especially, meaningful to those in red states and Congressional districts throughout the country who benefit the most: The opportunity is now to make the point: the House budget proposals as the debate that puts the specifics in writing and votes for and against in the official record.

"Keep it up GOP. You are handing the Dems a simple message. . Cutting or eliminating programs that are popular for even red-state ordinary people comprehend: "You want me to sacrifice what I need to give more tax cuts to those who do not need them and increase the debt? I dare you to call positive, cutting (social security, medicare, and Medicaid kids lunches, cancer research etc.). Positive for whom?."

It is not just benefits that are being cut, it is "threatening to take away their health coverage, make health care more expensive, and make it harder to afford food and college." https://www.cbpp.org/press/statements/house-budget-would-increase-costs-and-hardship-for-many-while-providing-huge-tax       

Add this to GOP/Trump not reducing grocery prices and inflation, and Democrats will have great messaging in the midterms.  

James Carville , Democratic strategist, proposes that Dems just sit back and let the GOP manufacture enough rope to hang themselves  That is one approach, but it is still important to educate voters who is responsible for what as the budget issues are debated. It makes it easier at midterm campaign time. It is doubtful that the GOP will have the guts to cross Trump publicly other than about an isolated issue or two since they risk facng well-funded oppostion in their primaries. 

So spooked by the angry constituents at the town hall meetings, GOP representatives are being encouraged by party leaders to not hold such public meetings. However, GOP votes on behalf of their House bill are on the record, thanks to direct intervention by Trump, and it wll be hard to duck their official votes. (one negative  GOP vote in the end)   I can see the Democrats already crafting their attack ads. The challenge  Dems face is breaking through the foxated informaton silo to reach and educate less hard core Trump voters.  It will take some imagination and cleverness using other methods and social media channels.