Tuesday, February 8, 2011

Egyptian military is the key and the US must influence them

Whether or not Egypt will ever be democratic depends upon whether the military remains neutral and how the Mubarak security apparatus treats the dissidents.  Watching Anderson Cooper on CNN last night brought home those two points, as he reported on the brutalizing of the demonstrators by the secret police and the unstated threat of force by the military.  Both point to the Mubarak regime acting like the brutal military dictatorship it has always been and using the same tactics to cow and control their population. Their promise to the West to transition to democracy and reform is no better than a double cross. We are off to a very bad start.
So far, the demonstrators have not called for dismantling of military power but if the Egyptian military overtly supports Mubarak as he cracks down or tries to disperse the demonstrators, the military  may find themselves the object of the revolution and inflame the revolution even more. The military’s best way to protect their perks and power and be the force behind any democratic governance, a la Turkey, is at least to stay neutral during the process or even give tacit support to the revolution. No doubt the military is gambling that they have the tanks and guns to do what they wish in spite of the price they may pay in support from the West or  causing an all out blood bath in the country and an uncertain outcome.
Those in the square know their lives are endangered if they cease their actions…the police have their photos and their names…and unless the US pressures the Egyptian military to stop the brutalizing of them by the secret police and intelligence services, then the future will not be democracy but bloodshed and violence. The country then could be open to militants from other Arab nations to take advantage of the outrage and anger and support dissenters with weapons and leadership. That would be a disaster for the US interests in the region and the future of democracy in Egypt since those foreign influences are there to promote their own terrorist and Islamist agendas.
 Let us hope that the 1.3 billion dollars the US gives the military can influence the Egyptian’s military’s actions and that sooner than later, the military engineers Mubarak and his police to step down, whether by coup or by other means.
 I do not buy the US claim that we have no ability to control the outcome. We do; that is one advantage of our foreign aid money. While we may keep hands off the process that determineswho wins or leads a democracy once the democratic process is established, we can and should  keep our hands into foray to insure that the democracy happen.  The best  and highest use of that is to pressure the military to remain neutral or to side with the revolution. Let us hope that is what the Obama administration is doing behind the scenes.

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