Some very personal observations about the Egyptian revolt

I do read history and I am old enough to have experienced some of it. .I do not think the Muslim Brotherhood will take over anytime soon in Egypt...but I am currently immersed in one possible model ...the history of modern Turkey written by the New York Times correspondent Stephen Kinzer, "  Crescent and  Star." Dr Mike Muftic, my husband of 50 years, is from a part of the world shaped by Turkish influence   so I think I have more than a passing feel for the area.  I have never been in Egypt but I was in Tunisia briefly 2 years ago..  These three  countries strike me as more secular than Islamic.  I have also written extensively on moderates in the Muslim world. (See the blog of Feb 4) .

Tunisia superficially appeared to me to be western leaning in dress and attitude and economically underdeveloped.  I am not surprised it was the country that kicked over the hornets nest and the spirit that has escaped is stinging the entire Arab world.

The only fear I have is that the longer this Egyptian revolt drags out and chaos reigns, the result will not be a restoration of Mubarakism but it could happen eventually that the only political organization with any teeth or ability to which a fearful, security seeking populace turns to  is the Muslim Brotherhood. This has been a spontaneous revolt that was anti Mubarak's regime; it was not a revolt to replace it with any structured political party or leader so that there are not many leaders around which those who are revolting can embrace.

 It is true revolutions that result in anarchy and chaos have a way of being picked off and taken over by the biggest organization around, even if it is composed of a minority and does not have extensive popularity.  It certainly is what happened in Yugoslavia post WW II and in the Russian revolution...when Communists were the minority but they were the  only game in town able to seize control.  The Egyptian revolt is anti existing governmental system, similar to Russia's initial stage of revolution. A weak form of leadership and government  first tried to provide stabiliity, but it took the Communist Party to provide the final shape.

There is one major difference, though.Unlike Russia and Yugoslavia, there is a powerful force in Egypt to fill a vacuum...the military. Turkey is an interesting case to look for possible predictions of how this Egyptian revolt will proceed. Like Egypt, the Turkish army was the stabilizing controller of all that happened since Ataturk until recently. It now has a moderate, democratically elected  Islamist government. The army's influence is still strong, but waning, according to those I know who have recently done business there.
Istanbul is still secular, however. . I visited there in September 2010.  The Eastern part of Turkey, I hear, especially southeastern, is not, nor has it ever been secular.  

I have spent considerable time in Bosnia, visiting it nearly annually since the end of the Balkan wars and for the 30 years preceding them.  My first visit was in 1958. Muslims there were secular  Kemalist (Turkish) in culture and practice before Communism and they emerged secular after the fall of Communism until the Balkan wars of the first half of the 1990s.   Now there is more evidence of Islamist influence there. ..head scarves and covered women dot about 20% of the groups of women in the Turkish quarters, a sight not seen there for nearly a century.  Saudi Arabia has poured money into that country to restore mosques. Dr. Mike and I plan to spend some extended time there this summer and I am curious to see if any of the attitudes among the Muslims have  become less secular to a significant extent..

Shortly after the end of the Balkan wars in 1995 to early 2000, and  especially in early 2000, Bosnia served as an Al Qaeda gateway into Europe and NATO clamped down on it arresting many.  We should not be blind to the possibility of that happening in Egypt either.

What President Obama must do is to get in front of the Arab street parade for independence and economic development in order to make  long term gains there and to offset anti American sentiment. He cannot win hearts and minds by looking pro Mubarak. However, he is running smack dab into Israeli interests who fear the end of the peace pack between Egypt and Israel if some Islamist government or power group other than the military takes control of Egypt.  It is a wretched foreign policy dilemma he faces. So far Obama is walking a clever line of forcing the military regime to go along with the demands of the demonstrators yet still providing the billions of dollars of aid the military depends upon. Whether the result will be the retirement  of Mubarak sooner than later is unknown as I am writing this, but I do not see the control by the Egyptian military to be given up   easily in the near future if Turkey's experience is applicable.

 The risk will be in the election process whenever that occurs, and it is a risk those who believe in fair and free elections must take even if it brings Islamists into more powerful positions.
My emotional sympathies lie with those in Tahrir Square; the risk we take is that the majority of Egyptians will not  reject Islamist rule in spite of their traditional secular inclinations.

 What we in the US must not become is the object of hate Islamists can use to rise to power in a democratic Egypt. For that reason, we must also embrace the wide spread desire of Egyptians to gain the freedoms they crave and demand the military powers to  allow democracy to happen.

The control of the Suez Canal and the transit of oil of course are at stake...and we are not yet rid of our dependency on oil  that flows through the Canal.  This fear that the Suez could fall into unfriendly hands, might kick us into higher gear in support of developing alternative energy, but the last time the Suez was threatened. and the Arab oil embargo happened, it seemed to make no difference other than move us to downsize  to smaller cars...a change in a market demand  that lasted until SUVs became fashionable.