Updated and revised: 9/6/2024 to reflect a day of breaking news
A loose coalition of unified Democrats with anti-Trump, pro-democracy Republican voters may be where Harris has the best chance of finding enough votes to win in November. A pro-democracy coalition is beginning to gel, and the potential is significant. This is coalition politics American style, but the term "coalition" is not usually on the tip of our tongues. Still, about 18% of voters have not made up their minds, per a New York Times report of polls, and demographically, in critical swing states, they are more male, young, white, and less well-educated than the average voter, which favors Trump. The disaffected registered Republicans are Harris's better potential for a win. They tend to be better educated and moderate and understand and fear Trump's aspiration for a dictatorship, a sentiment shared with Democrats.
This election is still up for grabs, and Harris has reason to call herself an underdog. The coalitions, as always, in the US will be resolved intraparty before November 5, forced by time and structure set state-by-state election-related laws to resolve their issues within the two-party system months before the actual presidential vote. This differs from European parliamentary coalition politics, where coalitions are decided after the national vote between parties, and those in the winning coalition keep their party affiliations and choose their nation's prime minister.
The orphaned "Haley voters" are estimated to be about 20 to 25% of registered Republicans. They are still sorting themselves about whether to sit this election out, vote for Harris, or revert to party loyalty even though the party is not like old times. The money and GOP apparatus are clearly in the hands of MAGA, so those Republicans still toying with how they will vote will be a matter of many individuals making the same decisions on their own if they are to be significant in the final outcome. So much will depend on the the debate on September 10. In some polls, about a quarter of Republicans are showing favorable opinions of Harris, but that does not mean they will vote for her. They will have to put country over party and feel comfortable doing it. Harris has a chance to make them feel comfortable in that debate.
I do not recall anything like that happening in our recent extremely polarized climate and a 50-50 division. One reason for this phenomenon is MAGA's reversing policies and values held by GOP's long-time party loyalists as defined by Ronald Reagan. (strong defense and alliances, free trade, rule of laws and order, while supporting traditional elements of libertarianism, keeping government out of private lives, low taxes favoring big business, trickle-down economics, low debt, and minimum government spending on social aid services). The traditional Republicans holding onto these beliefs have been depowered and roughly identified as the " Haley voters", dissidents to be dissed and Trump has treated them as such. Their numbers are estimated to be around a quarter of registered Republicans. Ironically, Nikki Haley herself tepidly stayed loyal to Trump. However, he never has made use of this fealty, while others, like the Cheneys, put fear of the Trump threat to democracy above party. On the other hand, Harris has moderated some positions to become more centrist and said she will include Republicans in her cabinet. She gets it.
The coalitions, as always, in the US will be resolved intraparty before November 5, forced by time and structure set state-by-state election-related laws usually to resolve their issues within the two-party system months before the actual presidential vote. Third parties and RFK Jr have already become non-factors in 2024 or have already aligned themselves with Trump or not. Political parties are not even mentioned in the Constitution. FYI Their institutions are protected by laws and legislation and the First Amendment.
Liz Cheney's announcement on 9/4/24 that she and her former vice president's father, icons of traditional conservatism, would vote for Harris because of Trump's threat to democracy is very significant. Later, Dick Cheney issued a confirming statement. Their evolution of thought began with what happened on January 6. Liz Cheney also announced support for Colin Allred (D-TX) running for Senate to unseat GOP Texas senator Ted Cruz. Cheney was giving a permission slip for those feeling like her to get the guts to go public and vote for Harris (and Allred), even if they had planned to vote their feelings in the privacy of the ballot box. The Democrats threw out the welcome mat. VP candidate Tim Walz reclaimed the flag and patriotism for Democrats. At the Democrat National Convention, even mention of John McCain's name got cheers, and speaker reference to Ronald Reagan got sincere respect. Democrats similarly fear Trump would try to turn us into a dictatorship on behalf of white Christian extreme nationalists. The progressive left tolerated it and pragmatically joined in a unified party. A loose pro-democracy coalition of shared spirit was formed. Disaffected Republicans and Democrats agree with enough issues and ignore others to make it possible. Whether this is a permanent coalition and/or party re-alignment is yet to be seen, but it is certainly a possible game-changer for November 2024, where margins are slim and every vote counts.
Liz Cheney also upped the ante on branding Trump and Vance when she called them "misogynistic pigs". It also got Lia Cheney's dander up, too. She called Trump and Vance "misogynist pigs"
In another profound switcheroo but less impactive, Trump finally admitted openly that the 2020 election was not stolen. The big lie was indeed a big lie, it appears. That will have a very limited impact on the immediate upcoming November election. The Trump plans to screw up and turn the election into chaos are already in place in swing states. Whether a violent mob can re-enact January 6 is more unlikely to happen if they realize they were just Trump's pawns bought in a store of lies. Nick Fuentes, the insurgent violent mob leader, expressed his anger at Trump for lying to him. This will not cause violent militiamen to lay down their arms, but it might dampen their participation in a January 6 repeat. MAGA already has their election-denying administrator loyalists in place to gum up the election, and facts and truth never seemed to dampen their support of Trump in the past. The "stolen" line was more of a code and cover for their anger and frustrations to which Trump appealed.
https://apnews.com/article/harris-cheny-duke-university-liz-dick-55852b4dffc447413616a01b6a38c920
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/former-republican-vice-president-dick-cheney-vote-harris/story?id=113467122
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